What's It Worth? Comprehensive

Evaluation of Bicycling Benefits

Todd Litman Victoria Transport Policy Institute

Presented at the

Velo City Conference Vancouver, BC

28 June 2012

Economic Development

Economic development (also

called macroeconomic impacts)

refers to progress toward a

community’s economic goals:

• Increased productivity

• Increased employment

• Incomes

• Property values

• Tax revenues

• Affordability

6/29/2012

Sustainable Planning

Sustainability

emphasizes the

integrated nature of

human activities and

therefore the need to

coordinate planning

among different sectors,

jurisdictions and

groups.

Scope of Economic Analysis Conventional Economics Sustainable Economics

Conventional economics is only concerned with

market impacts – goods and services traded in

a conventional market.

Sustainable economics is concerned with

impacts on any valued resource, including non-

market resources such as community cohesion

and environmental quality.

Sustainabile Transportation?

Is a transport system

sustainable if all

vehicles are electric

powered?

Electric Power Does Not:

• Reduce traffic congestion

• Reduce accidents

• Reduce roadway costs

• Reduce parking facility costs

• Reduce vehicle purchase costs

• Improve mobility for non-drivers

• Improve social equity

• Improve public fitness and health

• Reduce sprawl

• Protect threatened habitat

Paradigm Shifts

• Mobility - physical movement.

• Accessibility -

obtaining desired goods, services and activities.

• Growth - expanding,

doing more.

• Development -

improving, doing

better.

Trends Supporting Multi-Modalism

• Motor vehicle saturation.

• Aging population.

• Rising fuel prices.

• Increased urbanization.

• Increased traffic and parking congestion.

• Rising roadway construction costs and declining economic return from increased roadway capacity.

• Environmental concerns.

• Health Concerns U.S. vehicle travel grew steadily during the

Twentieth Century but stopped about 2003.

U.S. Annual Vehicle Mileage

Optimal Modal Split

9

Automobile

Walk-Bike-Transit

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Automobile-Dependent Multi-Modal

Mo

de

Sp

lit

Small shifts from

automobile to alternative

modes can result in a

large increase in walking,

cycling and public transit

demand.

For example, a 5-point

shift can increase use of

alternative modes by

50%.

Walking & Cycling Benefit Categories

Improved Active

Transport Conditions

Increased Active

Transport Activity

Reduced Automobile

Travel

Walkable Community

Design

• Improved user convenience and comfort

• Improved travel options, particularly for non-drivers

• Improved local property values

• Improved public fitness and health

• User enjoyment

• Increased community cohesion (positive interactions among neighbors)

• Reduced traffic congestion

• Road and parking cost savings

• Consumer cost savings

• Reduced crash risk to others

• Air and noise pollution reductions

• Energy conservation

• Economic development benefits

• More livable communities.

• Reduced sprawl (more compact, mixed development) reduces land consumption, reduces costs of providing public services, preserves openspace.

• Improved accessibility, particularly for non-drivers

• Reduced vehicle ownership

Comparing Benefits

Planning

Objectives

Expand

Roadways

Efficient and Alt.

Fuel Vehicles

Shifts from Auto

Alternative Modes

Vehicle Travel Impacts Increased VMT Increased VMT Reduced VMT

Reduce traffic congestion

Roadway cost savings

Parking cost savings

Consumer cost savings

Improve mobility options

Improve traffic safety

Energy conservation

Pollution reduction

Land use objectives

Public fitness & health

= Supports objective

12

Comparing Costs

13

Conventional Evaluation

Generally Considered

• Congestion impacts

• Vehicle operating costs

• Per-mile crash impacts

• Per-mile pollution

emissions.

Often Overlooked

• Parking costs

• Total consumer costs

• Downstream congestion

• Crash, energy & pollution

impacts of changes in mileage

• Land use impacts

• Impacts on mobility options for

non-drivers/equity impacts

• Changes in active transport

and related health impacts

User Benefits

Improved walkability provides: • User benefits Increased convenience,

comfort, safety, accessibility and

enjoyment

• Option value Benefits of having

mobility options available in case they

are ever needed.

• Equity benefits Helps economically,

socially or physically disadvantaged

people.

• Avoided chauffeuring Time and

financial savings to motorists.

Transportation Affordability

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200

Per-Capita Annual Transit Passenger-Miles

Tra

ns

pro

t P

ort

ion

of

Ho

us

eh

old

Ex

pe

nd

itu

res

Automobile Dependent

Muti-Modal

Congestion Reduction

• Some trips shift from driving to non-

motorized modes.

• Non-motorized improvements support

shifts to public transit.

• Walkable communities are more

compact and mixed. This may increase

congestion intensity but reduces travel

distances and therefore per-capita

congestion costs.

• Reduces barrier effects (delays to

pedestrians and cyclists caused by wider

roads and increased vehicle traffic).

Parking Cost Savings

Most people have no idea

of the real costs of

providing parking

facilities.

Most vehicles are worth

less than the total value

of parking spaces they

use. The majority of these

costs are subsidized (not

borne directly by users)

Safety Benefits

0

5

10

15

20

25

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Percent of All Trips by Non-Motorized Modes

Tra

ffic

Fata

liti

es P

er

100,0

00

Po

pu

lati

on

Northern EuropeSouthern EuropeUSCanadaAffluent Asian CitiesAustralia

Smart Growth Safety Impacts

What Gets People Moving?

• Recommended minimum: 20

minutes of moderate exercise

a day.

• Although there are many

ways to be physically active,

active transportation is one of

the most common, and

improving active

transportation conditions is a

practical way to increase

physical activity.

21

Land Use Impacts On Travel

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

AutoDependent

Mixed Multi-Modal

Av

era

ge

Da

ily M

inu

tes

Urban Index Rating

Automobile

Transit

Walk

Valuing Health Benefits

• New Zealand valuation:

– Cycling = $1.92 per additional mile

– Walking = $3.70 per additional mile

• Gotschi (2011) estimated that Portland, Oregon’s 40-

year $138-605 million bicycle facility investments provide

$388-594 million healthcare savings, $143-218 million

fuel savings, and $7-12 billion in longevity value.

• Guo and Gandavarapu (2010) conclude that the

incremental costs of residential sidewalk construction is

usually repaid by the health benefits of increased

physical fitness and reduced vehicle air pollution.

23

Smart Growth Development

• Compact (density)

• Mixed development (proximity)

• Urban villages

• Connectivity

• Walkability/bikability

• Public transport

• Public realm

• Parking management

Pedestrian transport supports and is supported

by smart growth land use policies

Smart Growth Benefits

Economic • Increased resource

efficiency

• Lower development

costs

• Lower public service

costs

• Road and parking cost

savings

• Economies of

agglomeration

• More efficient

transportation

Social • Improved transport

options, particularly for nondrivers

• Improved housing options

• Community cohesion

• Preserves unique cultural resources

• More opportunities to exercise

Environmental • Greenspace & habitat

preservation

• Reduced air pollution

• Increased energy efficiency

• Reduced water pollution

• Reduced “heat island” effect

Social Equity

Equity objectives:

• An equal share of public resources

for people with equal needs.

• Savings and benefits to lower-

income people.

• Increased opportunity to people

who are physically, socially or

economically disadvantaged.

• Basic mobility.

Community Livability & Cohesion

Community Livability refers to the

environmental and social quality of

an area as perceived by residents,

employees, customers and

visitors.

Community Cohesion refers to the

quantity and quality of positive

interactions among people in a

community.

Streets that are attractive, safe and

suitable for walking and cycling

increase community livability and

cohesion.

Community Economic Impacts

0

5

10

15

20

25

Petroleum General

Automobile

Expenses

General

Consumer

Expenditures

Public Transit

Jo

bs C

reate

d P

er $

1 m

illi

on

Exp

en

dit

ure

• Project employment impacts.

• Business savings and efficiencies (congestion, parking, taxes) increases productivity and competitiveness.

• Reducing vehicle expenditures and expanding transit service increases regional employment and business activity.

• Agglomeration efficiencies.

• Supports strategic land use development objectives.

• Increases affordability, allowing businesses to attract employees in areas with high living costs.

• Changes in household expenditures on vehicles and fuel.

Per Capita GDP and VMT

Productivity tends to

decline with increased

mobility. (Each dot is a

U.S. urban region.)

Bureau of Economic Analysis

and FHWA data

R2 = 0.2923

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000

Per Capita Annual Mileage (2005)

Per

Cap

ita A

nn

ual

GD

P (

2004)

Per Capita GDP and Urban Density

Productivity tends to

increase with

population density.

(Each dot is a U.S.

urban region.)

Bureau of Economic Analysis

and Bureau of Transportation

Statistics Data

Motorists Benefit Too

More balanced transport policy is no more “anti-car” than a healthy diet is anti-food. Motorists have every reason to support these reforms:

• Reduced traffic and parking congestion.

• Improved safety.

• Improved travel options.

• Reduced chauffeuring burden.

• Often the quickest and most cost effective way to improve driving conditions.

Memo From Future Self

Hope for the best but prepare for the worst:

• Physical disability – diverse and integrated transport with universal design (accommodates people with disabilities and other special needs).

• Poverty and inflation – affordable housing in accessible, multi-modal locations.

• Higher energy prices – improve efficient modes (walking, cycling and public transport).

• Isolation and loneliness – community cohesion (opportunities for neighbors to interact in positive ways).

Sustainable Transport Hierarchy

1. Walking

2. Cycling

3. Public Transit

4. Service & Freight

5. Taxi

6. HOV

7. Private Automobile

33

Conventional Transport Indicators

• Roadway Level-of-Service

(LOS)

• Average traffic speeds.

• Per capita congestion delay.

• Parking occupancy rates.

• Traffic fatalities per billion

vehicle-miles.

• Traffic fatalities per 100,000

population.

34

Multi-Modal LOS (Jacksonville)

Cycling LOS Pedestrian LOS

35

Multi-Modal Prioritization

Cycling Improvements Pedestrian Improvements

Key Messages

• NMT is efficient and beneficial.

• User demands and social benefits of NMT are increasing.

• NMT tends to be undervalued in conventional transport planning.

• NMT activity is sensitive to policy and planning decisions: cities with supportive programs have far more walking and cycling activity.

• Improving walking and cycling conditions benefits physically, economically and socially disadvantaged people and so helps achieve equity objectives.

• Policies and programs that improve walking and cycling conditions can help support strategic planning objectives, such as more compact land use development.

Short and Sweet: Analysis of Shorter Trips Using National Personal Travel Survey Data

“Evaluating Non-Motorized Transportation Benefits and Costs”

“Evaluating Transportation Economic Development Impacts”

“Smart Transportation Economic Stimulation”

“Transportation Cost and Benefits Analysis”

Economic Value of Walkability

“Online TDM Encyclopedia”

and more...

www.vtpi.org