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What’s the future of · What the impending recession will mean for demand for private healthcare?...
Transcript of What’s the future of · What the impending recession will mean for demand for private healthcare?...
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What’s the future of the independent healthcare market?
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Barbara HakinChairHealth Tech Alliance
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ramsayhealth.co.uk
Lis Neil, Director of Strategy
“What is the future of the independent healthcare market?” How providers can navigate the new post-covid
world
The Independent Healthcare Providers Network (IHPN) Summit
14th October 2020
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Ramsay Health Care
Global Health Operator
Economies of scale
Best practice
Cost leadership
Speed to market
Innovation
#1 Australia
#1 France
#1 Scandinavia
Differentiated
Business
Scale
Diversified portfolio
Industry leading
quality
Deep and
experienced
leadership
Market Leading
Positions
Employees
77,000
Locations
480
Countries
11
Patient visits/admissions
8,500,000
4
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“What’s the future of the independent healthcare market?” How providers can
navigate the new post-COVID world……..
5
What the next year will bring for the sector?
• Living with operational uncertainty, frustration &
nervousness
• Recognition that the independent sector is a key player in
supporting the NHS to clear waiting lists and deliver
solutions locally
• Continued collaboration across the independent sector
• Potential to change direction with the rise and fall of
COVID rates
• Public demanding reassurances of safety
• Acceleration of digitalisation and new pathways
• More lateral collaborations within and outside of the
industry
How can we balance private and NHS patients in light of a
public health service under strain?
• Definitely role for the private sector working with the NHS
in providing capacity challenging operational management
• Innovative approach to partnerships
• Different approach to costing and contracting models
What the impending recession will mean for demand for
private healthcare?
• Exacerbation of demand outstripping capacity
• Prioritisation of certain specialties and clinically urgent leading
to people seeking alternative private provision
• Short term disposable income before the recession takes hold
• Insurers seeking pathways and technology to control referrals
Risk of contraction of the corporate market in the longer-term
• Emerging strategies from insurers and tech companies to
capture and harness private demand
• Uncertainty could lead to more cautious decision making on
the part of the public and providers
How a safe and efficient service can be delivered in a socially
distanced world?
• New ways of delivering pathways: e.g virtual consultations,
virtual diagnosis, virtual follow up.
• Risk assessment perhaps more stringent than ever before
• We do not know what the longer term health impact of COVID
is going to be and its impact upon health and health systems
• The more we know about COVID the likelihood that clinical
safety guidance and therefore practice will change.
• Greater focus on outcomes
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Andrew CoombsCommercial DirectorHCA Healthcare
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IHPN Conference14 October 2020
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Covid sub sector impactDiagnostics Digital Health /
Healthcare IT
Specialty Pharma /
Generics
CDMOs / CMOs
Medical /
Regulatory
Affairs
Children’s
services
ClinicsCROs
Homecare
Elderly
Residential
care
Drug discovery
/ pre-clinical
Mental Health
Private
hospitals
Positive long-term outlook
but facing challenges
Fundamentally strong
sub-sectors
WeakStrongLong term sub-sector outlook
Mid-term
COVID
impact
Highly positive
Highly
negative
Largely
unaffected
Modestly
negative
Specialist care
Source: Ernst & Young/Apposite
Traditional
Medical devices
Infection
control
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UK Healthcare Market Review
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Short term - what does the future holdShort term (end of 2020)
• PMI backlog – soon back to normal
• Self-pay – will probably lag - can providers convert enquiries
• International – recovery was forecast to start later this year, but second wave
• PPU’s vulnerable with a couple of exceptions
Medium term (next 2 years)• Macro-economic outlook – more downside than upside
• World recovery – global trade war (China, US), oil prices
• UK recovery + Brexit impact
• trade, ‘PMI-included’ jobs e.g. head office, City finance, legal, accounting, etc.
• Stock market, house prices, unemployment, inflation
Assumptions
• Patient confidence; a managed second wave; no bad winter flu season; no Covid outbreaks in a private hospital
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Long term - what does the future holdLong term
• PMI - even more pressure for pathway management to contain costs
• Self-pay – consumer confidence as important as NHS waiting lists
• International – reasonable prospects – ongoing need, lack of local doctors, oil price recovery, although volatile with risks involved (e.g. debt)
• NHS – will the NHS become a key customer in the Central London market
• PPU – vulnerability – high acuity, bread and butter
• Hospital profitability
• Governance, Covid-related costs, wages, over-capacity, new business models
Longer term• Reduction in IPT
• Home working => Remote consultation => Outer London diagnostics => Outer London treatment
• Consultants more interested in employment due to lower risk to income
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Q&A