WHAT WORKS IN PREVENTING AND REDUCING COMMUNITY VIOLENCE? · Community Policing Juvenile Curfews...
Transcript of WHAT WORKS IN PREVENTING AND REDUCING COMMUNITY VIOLENCE? · Community Policing Juvenile Curfews...
07/11/17 1
WHAT WORKS IN PREVENTING
AND REDUCING COMMUNITY
VIOLENCE?
Thomas Abt
Senior Research Fellow
Harvard Kennedy School
Center for International Development
White Paper: What Works in
Preventing and Reducing
Community Violence?
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• Objective
– To better understand “what works, and why” with regard to
community violence
• Methodology
– Reviewed 264 individual studies as well as systematic reviews,
meta-analysis, meta-reviews to identify which programmatic
strategies worked (and which didn’t)
– Selected studies based on strong designs (experimental, quasi-
experimental methods with solid comparison groups)
– Analyzed each programmatic strategy in depth to better
understand why it worked (or didn’t)
– Conducted fieldwork to understand whether “what worked” in
other contexts could work in Mexico
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WHITE PAPER
What do we mean by
community violence?
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TYPOLOGY OF VIOLENCE CONTINUUM
Rarely lethalOccurs in privateInvolves fewSpontaneousExpressiveCommon
Frequently lethalOccurs in public
Involves manyPlanned
InstrumentalUncommon
Home School Community Gang Organized State
• Different types of violence require different strategies; what works to
reduce one type of violence will not work for another
• Mexico has high rates of both disorganized and organized violence
• Efforts to curb community violence have been rigorously studied, those
to control organized violence have not
• Because the white paper is based on the most rigorous evidence, it
speaks to community, not organized, violence
• That said, all forms of violence demand a policy response, especially
organized criminal violence
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DIFFERENT VIOLENCE, DIFFERENT STRATEGIES
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Elements of effective
community violence programs
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Some practical elements were common among effective programs:
• Targeting: identify and focus on highest-risk people, places, behaviors
• High intensity and dosage: do more with less, using higher treatment
dosages with fewer participants
• Strong program design: have a well-defined theory of change, based
on sound evidence
• Fidelity/Adherence: stay true to theory of change, even with adversity
• Monitoring and evaluation: use M&E to continually assess
effectiveness
• Financial and technical capacity: have sufficient and sustainable
resources, as well as properly trained management and staff
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ELEMENTS OF EFFECTIVENESS
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Anti-violence programs
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• Looked at 23 different program types for reducing community violence,
arranged them into 4 groups according to effectiveness
• Determined which interventions fell into which groups based on:
– The number of existing rigorous experimental and quasi-
experimental studies identified for each specific intervention
– The size of that intervention’s effect on youth violence and crime
outcomes, as described in the papers
• Limitations
– No rigorous studies were found from Mexico; few from Latin
America; most US-based
– Few studies studying institutions (as opposed to programs) due to
methodological challenges
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ANTI-VIOLENCE PROGRAMS
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ANTI-VIOLENCE PROGRAMS
Strong evidence Modest evidenceInconclusive or
contested evidence
Evidence of
ineffectiveness
Focused DeterrenceVocational Training and
Employment
Crime Prevention Through
Environmental Design
Hospital-based Prevention
Programs
Cognitive Behavioral TherapyRestorative Justice (Direct
Mediation)Disorder Policing Scared Straight
Multidimensional Juvenile
Therapy
Non-custodial Sanctions
(Alternatives to Incarceration)Community Policing Juvenile Curfews
Drug Courts and Drug
TreatmentConditional Cash Transfers
Community-based Prevention
Programs Drug Law Enforcement
Alcohol ControlGang Outreach
(Streetworker) ProgramsGun Buyback Programs
Hot Spot Policing Mentoring
School-based Programs
Non-custodial Sanctions
(Supervision)
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CASE 1: FOCUSED DETERRENCE
Strong evidence Modest evidenceInconclusive or
contested evidence
Evidence of
ineffectiveness
Focused DeterrenceVocational Training and
Employment
Crime Prevention Through
Environmental Design
Hospital-based Prevention
Programs
Cognitive Behavioral TherapyRestorative Justice (Direct
Mediation)Disorder Policing Scared Straight
Multidimensional Juvenile
Therapy
Non-custodial Sanctions
(Alternatives to Incarceration)Community Policing Juvenile Curfews
Drug Courts and Drug
TreatmentConditional Cash Transfers
Community-based Prevention
Programs Drug Law Enforcement
Alcohol ControlGang Outreach
(Streetworker) ProgramsGun Buyback Programs
Hot Spot Policing Mentoring
School-based Programs
Non-custodial Sanctions
(Supervision)
(Behavior-based / Tertiary Prevention and Suppression)
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• What does it involve?
– Strong partnerships
between police,
prosecutors, communities,
and service providers
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FOCUSED DETERRENCE
– Directly communicate to chronic offenders a varietyof both sanctions and rewards (“pulling levers”)
– Designed to provide clear incentives for refraining from engaging infurther criminal activity.
– Target group as well as individual behavior
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Officers at Philadelphia police department’s 17th District Headquarters at 20th and Federal streets begin
their shift around 5p.m. (Kimberly Paynter/WHYY file)
• Why does it work?
– Offering a clear list of sanctions can push offenders’ perceived riskcalculation beyond a certain threshold (“tipping” effect)
– Face-to-face meetings with repeat offenders and presenting bothsanctions and rewards can greatly improve the perceivedprocedural fairness and legitimacy of the police in the eyes of thecommunity
• Opportunities moving forward
– No RCTs so far, only strong quasi-experimental evidence
– Local institutional settings and capacities are key
– Highly localized, does not necessarily require police ”buy-in” atnational level
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FOCUSED DETERRENCE
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CASE 2: COGNITIVE BEHAVIORAL THERAPY
Strong evidence Modest evidenceInconclusive or
contested evidence
Evidence of
ineffectiveness
Focused DeterrenceVocational Training and
Employment
Crime Prevention Through
Environmental Design
Hospital-based Prevention
Programs
Cognitive Behavioral
Therapy
Restorative Justice (Direct
Mediation)Disorder Policing Scared Straight
Multidimensional Juvenile
Therapy
Non-custodial Sanctions
(Alternatives to Incarceration)Community Policing Juvenile Curfews
Drug Courts and Drug
TreatmentConditional Cash Transfers
Community-based Prevention
Programs Drug Law Enforcement
Alcohol ControlGang Outreach
(Streetworker) ProgramsGun Buyback Programs
Hot Spot Policing Mentoring
School-based Programs
Non-custodial Sanctions
(Supervision)
(People and Behavior-based / Tertiary Prevention and Offender Rehabilitation)
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• What does it involve?
– Sessions help youth evaluate
and modify the way they
think and make decisions
– Adapt unhelpful thinking and
self-destructive behaviors.
– In a limited number of
sessions, participants work
with a specialist to identify
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COGNITIVE BEHAVIORAL THERAPY
the problematic behavior, view challenging situations differently, and
practice different responses.
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• Why does it work?
– Produces changes in:
• Self-control
• Time preferences
• Values
• Social skill
• Social identity
Training of treatment providers and supervision appears to be
key, as well as their ability to connect with youth
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COGNITIVE BEHAVIORAL THERAPY
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• Opportunities moving forward
– Effects sometimes time-limited; how to extend?
• Make therapy last longer?
• Offer booster sessions?
• Pair with economic assistance programs?
– Adapt CBT-inspired programs to a more criminally engaged and
high-risk population
– Innovate with more cost-effective intervention models, potentially
through lay counselors
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COGNITIVE BEHAVIORAL THERAPY
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CASE 3: HOT SPOTS POLICING
Strong evidence Modest evidenceInconclusive or
contested evidence
Evidence of
ineffectiveness
Focused DeterrenceVocational Training and
Employment
Crime Prevention Through
Environmental Design
Hospital-based Prevention
Programs
Cognitive Behavioral TherapyRestorative Justice (Direct
Mediation)Disorder Policing Scared Straight
Multidimensional Juvenile
Therapy
Non-custodial Sanctions
(Alternatives to Incarceration)Community Policing Juvenile Curfews
Drug Courts and Drug
TreatmentConditional Cash Transfers
Community-based Prevention
Programs Drug Law Enforcement
Alcohol ControlGang Outreach
(Streetworker) ProgramsGun Buyback Programs
Hot Spot Policing Mentoring
School-based Programs
Non-custodial Sanctions
(Supervision)
(Place-based / Suppression)
13/09/18
• What does it involve?
– Focuses additional law
enforcement resources on
small geographical areas with
disproportionally high crime
rates
– Strategies used by the police in
these hot spots vary from
traditional law enforcement to
various forms of proactive,
problem-oriented policing
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HOT SPOTS POLICING
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• Why does it work?
– Increasing foot patrols and officers assigned to an area raises the
likelihood of disruption, apprehension, and arrest, creating a
deterrent effect
– Applying problem-oriented interventions in hot spots can change
the relationships between offenders, targets, and guardians at
treatment locations
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HOT SPOTS POLICING
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• Limitations
– Recent studies have raised concerns regarding the possible
displacement of crime to neighboring areas under this program
• Most studies to date have drawn on relatively small samples and may
have lacked the statistical power to detect small displacement effects
• A recent study in Bogotá (Blattman et. al.) with a large sample size
found that crime moved to neighboring streets
• Opportunities moving forward
– Maximize effectiveness by exploring targeted, problem-oriented
strategies in hot spots - not just “cops on dots”
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HOT SPOTS POLICING
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CASE 4: VOCATIONAL TRAINING AND
EMPLOYMENT
Strong evidence Modest evidenceInconclusive or
contested evidence
Evidence of
ineffectiveness
Focused DeterrenceVocational Training and
Employment
Crime Prevention Through
Environmental Design
Hospital-based Prevention
Programs
Cognitive Behavioral TherapyRestorative Justice (Direct
Mediation)Disorder Policing Scared Straight
Multidimensional Juvenile
Therapy
Non-custodial Sanctions
(Alternatives to Incarceration)Community Policing Juvenile Curfews
Drug Courts and Drug
TreatmentConditional Cash Transfers
Community-based Prevention
Programs Drug Law Enforcement
Alcohol ControlGang Outreach
(Streetworker) ProgramsGun Buyback Programs
Hot Spot Policing Mentoring
School-based Programs
Non-custodial Sanctions
(Supervision)
(People-based / Secondary, Tertiary Prevention and Offender Rehabilitation)
13/09/18
• What does it involve?
– Offers marketable career
skills to at-risk and/or
offender youth
– Aims to provide youth with
the means to attain a secure
and legal income
– Secure legal employment
occupies time youth may
otherwise devote to criminal
activities
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VOCATIONAL TRAINING AND EMPLOYMENT
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• What is the theory?
– Employment opportunities (through job-skills training and
connections) can give youth a legal alternative to criminal
involvement
– Offering conditional or unconditional cash grants to people with
unstable jobs and little access to credit may also lead to reductions
in criminal activity
• Limitations
– Increasing employment alone has not been particularly effective in
reducing violent crime; must be more targeted, offer additional
assistance
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VOCATIONAL TRAINING AND EMPLOYMENT
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• Opportunities moving forward
– Explore the potential complementarity between Vocational Training
and Employment and other interventions (with CBT, for example)
– More targeted efforts to engage high-risk individuals
– Greater coordination with the private sector and technical schools
is an important strategy
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VOCATIONAL TRAINING AND EMPLOYMENT
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CASE 5: CRIME PREVENTION THROUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL DESIGN (CPTED)
Strong evidence Modest evidenceInconclusive or
contested evidence
Evidence of
ineffectiveness
Focused DeterrenceVocational Training and
Employment
Crime Prevention
Through Environmental
Design
Hospital-based Prevention
Programs
Cognitive Behavioral TherapyRestorative Justice (Direct
Mediation)Disorder Policing Scared Straight
Multidimensional Juvenile
Therapy
Non-custodial Sanctions
(Alternatives to Incarceration)Community Policing Juvenile Curfews
Drug Courts and Drug
TreatmentConditional Cash Transfers
Community-based Prevention
Programs Drug Law Enforcement
Alcohol ControlGang Outreach
(Streetworker) ProgramsGun Buyback Programs
Hot Spot Policing Mentoring
School-based Programs
Non-custodial Sanctions
(Supervision)
(Place-based / Primary prevention)
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• What does it involve?
– Programs that seek to prevent
crime by changing the physical
design of the urbanized built
environment
– Examples: improved street
lighting, revamping public
spaces, expansion of public
transport systems, etc.
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CRIME PREVENTION THROUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL DESIGN (CPTED)
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• What is the theory?
– Interventions that create public spaces where neighbors can interactand develop relationships show more promising results
– Improvements to physical spaces can build community pride andconfidence, thereby strengthening informal social contro
– When CPTED creates stronger communities, it may also improverelationships between citizens and the police
• Limitations
– Even successful interventions produce only weak effects, mostly onproperty crime
– Not well-targeted to high-crime, high-violence locations
– Neighborhood involvement is key, when they are not involved in theprocess there seems to be no impact
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CRIME PREVENTION THROUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL DESIGN (CPTED)
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• Opportunities moving forward
– Given weak impacts, when using CPTED keep costs low and do
not depend on it for large impacts
– Can supplement other anti-violence efforts
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CRIME PREVENTION THROUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL DESIGN (CPTED)
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Key principles for community
violence
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• To achieve maximum impact, must focus on risk, not need
– Crime and especially violence concentrate among small numbers
of high-risk people, places, and behaviors
• To achieve maximum impact, must use multiple strategies
simultaneously
– Most anti-violence strategies work a little, a few work well, and a
few don’t work at all
– Because of this, there are no magic bullets – must concentrate the
impacts of individually modest but collectively robust effects
produce big results
• What if crime moves around the corner? Large body of evidence says
that disorganized crime will not, but organized crime might
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CONCENTRATION PRINCIPLE
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• To achieve maximum impact, stakeholders must coordinate and align
anti-violence activities
– Cannot concentrate efforts without coordinating them
– More is not necessarily better, should only have as many
stakeholders as can be meaningfully coordinated
– Stakeholders must agree to be part of group effort aligned around
high-risk people, places, and behaviors
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COORDINATION PRINCIPLE
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PROACTIVITY PRINCIPLE
REACTIVE
Respond to violence that has
already taken place
Standard law enforcement
approach
Necessary but not sufficient
to achieve success
PROACTIVE
Seek to prevent violence
before it takes place
Identify patterns to better
anticipate violence
Address underlying factors
causing violence
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• To achieve maximum impact, use both reactive and proactive
approaches
• In Mexico and around the region, many jails and prisons are
overcrowded, allowing criminal activity to fester and inhibiting
rehabilitation
• In Mexico and around the region, there is widespread impunity for the
most serious violent offenses
• Evidence-informed community-based rehabilitation for non-violent
offenders is cheaper and more effective in reducing recidivism than
incarceration
• Given overcrowding, impunity, and the availability of alternatives, jail and
prison capacity is best spent on dangerous violent offenders, not low-
level drug dealers and addicts
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A CONCLUDING THOUGHT ON
REHABILITATION, INCARCERATION
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QUESTIONS?
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Thank you!