What will our region look like in 50 ... - Superstition Vistas will our region look like in 50...
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The Future of our Region: Promises & Perils of the East Valley and Northern Pinal County The US Census Bureau estimates that the United States will reach well over 400 million and possibly as high as 645 million people by 2060. However, some regions will grow faster than others. America’s recent growth centers have been in the western and southern parts of the country, and focused on a few urban areas. It is likely that population increases will be largely located within emerging “megapolitan” areas. Megapolitan refers to networks of metropolitan and micropolitan areas, focusing on the increasing role of linkages between multiple metro areas. The Sun Corridor, the megapolitan area which includes Phoenix and Tucson is projected to grow by at least 10 million people by 2040. The forecasts for East Valley and Pinal County described in this handout have been created with the country’s demographic trends in mind. The population is aging, with increasing population shares in every age group over 65. Meanwhile, as the population ages and households which include children decline, the average household size is projected to decrease. This will drive the need for an increase in apartments and condos and a decrease in the need for single family homes. Since 1990, the Southeast Valley, including Tempe, Mesa, Chandler and Apache Junction, has captured 31% of the Phoenix region’s growth. Surveys show that potential housing consumers prefer the valley’s eastern quadrants. As in many metro areas, most of the developable land in the Phoenix region is located at the edges of existing urban areas. Superstition Vistas is but one example of a prime opportunity area that is a large, relatively flat, under single ownership and located at the edge of current growth. For the Superstition Vistas project, a range of growth projections have been created from a high regional growth rate with a large percentage of that growth captured in Superstition Vistas (“high- high”) to a low regional growth rate with low amounts of growth in Superstition Vistas (“low-low”). Depending on decisions made at the regional and sub-regional levels, Superstition Vistas could range from 261,000 people to over one million. What will our region look like in 50 years? Superstition Vistas (Only) Average Annual Household Growth 2010-2060
Transcript of What will our region look like in 50 ... - Superstition Vistas will our region look like in 50...
The Future of our Region:Promises & Perils of the East Valley and Northern Pinal County
The US Census Bureau estimates that the United States will reach well over 400 million and possibly as high as 645 million people by 2060. However, some regions will grow faster than others. America’s recent growth centers have been in the western and southern parts of the country, and focused on a few urban areas. It is likely that population increases will be largely located within emerging “megapolitan” areas. Megapolitan refers to networks of metropolitan and micropolitan areas, focusing on the increasing role of linkages between multiple metro areas. The Sun Corridor, the megapolitan area which includes Phoenix and Tucson is projected to grow by at least 10 million people by 2040.
The forecasts for East Valley and Pinal County described in this handout have been created with the country’s demographic trends in mind. The population is aging, with increasing population shares in every age group over 65. Meanwhile, as the population ages and households which include children decline, the average household size is projected to decrease. This will drive the need for an increase in apartments and condos and a decrease in the need for single family homes.
Since 1990, the Southeast Valley, including Tempe, Mesa, Chandler and Apache Junction, has captured 31% of the Phoenix region’s growth. Surveys show that potential housing consumers prefer the valley’s eastern quadrants. As in many metro areas, most of the developable land in the Phoenix region is located at the edges of existing urban areas. Superstition Vistas is but one example of a prime opportunity area that is a large, relatively flat, under single ownership and located at the edge of current growth.
For the Superstition Vistas project, a range of growth projections have been created from a high regional growth rate with a large percentage of that growth captured in Superstition Vistas (“high-high”) to a low regional growth rate with low amounts of growth in Superstition Vistas (“low-low”). Depending on decisions made at the regional and sub-regional levels, Superstition Vistas could range from 261,000 people to over one million.
What will our region look like in 50 years?
Superstition Vistas (Only) Average Annual Household Growth 2010-2060
Pinal
Pima
Mar icopa
Gila River Indian Reservation
Tohono O'odham Indian Reservation
Maricopa Indian Reservation
I r o n w o o d F o r e s t N a t i o n a l M o n u m e n tI r o n w o o d F o r e s t N a t i o n a l M o n u m e n t
To n t o N a t i o n a l F o r e s tTo n t o N a t i o n a l F o r e s t
S u p e r s t i t i o n W i l d e r n e s sS u p e r s t i t i o n W i l d e r n e s s
Santan
Sacaton
Chuichu
Maricopa
Coolidge
Stanfield
Guadalupe Gold Canyon
Blackwater
Queen Creek
Queen Valley
Arizona City
Ak-Chin Village
Eloy
Florence
Sun Lakes
Casa Grande
Apache JunctionTempe
Gilbert
Chandler
Mesa
Think Up A Title Already !!!
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County Boundary
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0 - 10,00010,000 - 50,00050,000 - 250,000250,000 - 1,000,000
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InfrastructureInterstateHighwayMajor RoadRail RoadAirport
Federal LandBureau of Land Management &Bureau of Reclamation
Forest Service,Fish and Wildlife Service, &National Park Service
Department of Defense
Reservation
Our Region Today
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Boundaries
Superstition Vista
County Boundary
Development Projects
Future Growth Areas
Urban Core Employment
Residential
Federal LandBureau of Land Management &Bureau of Reclamation
Forest Service,Fish and Wildlife Service, &National Park Service
Department of Defense
Reservation
Retail
Pinal
Pima
Mar icopa
Gila River Indian Reservation
Tohono O'odham Indian Reservation
Maricopa Indian Reservation
I r o n w o o d F o r e s t N a t i o n a l M o n u m e n tI r o n w o o d F o r e s t N a t i o n a l M o n u m e n t
To n t o N a t i o n a l F o r e s tTo n t o N a t i o n a l F o r e s t
S u p e r s t i t i o n W i l d e r n e s sS u p e r s t i t i o n W i l d e r n e s s
Santan
Sacaton
Chuichu
Maricopa
Coolidge
Stanfield
Guadalupe Gold Canyon
Blackwater
Queen Creek
Queen Valley
Arizona City
Ak-Chin Village
Eloy
Florence
Sun Lakes
Casa Grande
Apache JunctionTempe
Gilbert
Chandler
Mesa
Our Future Region?
Title Sponsor:
Media Sponsor:
Silver Sponsors: APSASUASU PolytechnicCentral Arizona ProjectFNF ConstructionSCF Arizona UTAZ Development
The East Valley can take steps to set itself up to capture a high percentage of this growth. First, it must develop necessary infrastructure, including roads, public transportation and urban services, to support a relatively dense community. We also need to plan for significantly-sized and well-located employment areas that will attract employers, particularly near the Phoenix-Mesa Gateway and elsewhere in the area. If the East Valley is planned with inadequate infrastructure and develops as a bedroom community, it will have a difficult time attracting new regional growth.
The following are essential catalysts to ensure that the East Valley grows with a balance of jobs and housing, and in a sustainable form.
The Future of the East Valley and Northern Pinal County:Reaching the goals of the region
Over the past 30 years, John Fregonese has earned the rare reputation of being able both to create an energizing vision for communities and to develop concrete, workable solutions to urban problems. John has worked on many noteworthy regional planning efforts including:
Envision Utah• Portland’s Metro 2040 Growth Plan• Louisiana Speaks Regional Vision• Envision Central Texas• Chicago Metropolis 2020 • Southern California Association of Government’s Compass • Blueprint
The Future of our Region:Promises & Perils of the East Valley and Northern Pinal County
SRP presents...
Thursday, May 1st 2008 11:30am Arizona Grand Resort, Phoenix
What will our region look like in a few decades with the pace of current planning and development? To help us get a first look at the future, we have engaged the expertise of John Fregonese, a nationally recognized planner, to summarize and bring together the many plans and views of what the East Valley & Northern Pinal County will look like in the future as the area approaches build-out. Mr. Fregonese will show 3-D fly through videos of the region, simulating what a helicopter flyover in the area might look like in a few decades. This presentation will help us imagine how current studies and reports will be implemented and integrated together.
The panel will discuss what the East Valley and Northern Pinal County can do to meet future demographic shifts, global warming, infrastructure investments and what will be needed in terms of political will and capital to accomplish the developments envisioned.
Meet John Fregonese
Title Sponsor:
Media Sponsor:
Gold Sponsors:
Silver Sponsors: APSASUASU PolytechnicCentral Arizona Project
FNF ConstructionSCF ArizonaUTAZ Development
Event Location: Arizona Grand Resort (formally Pointe South Mountain Resort)8000 S. Arizona Grand ParkwayPhoenix, AZ 85044(480) 834-8335
Sponsorship:Sponsorship opportunities are available. Please visit the event page atwww.evp-az.org or contact Jennifer Whalley at 480/834-8335 or [email protected] for further information.
This event is hosted by:
Gold Sponsors: Hosted By:
Destination health campus, emphasis on research
Health Care/Health Sciences
Minimal (connects to the grid)Heavy (Freight) Rail
Connections to Phoenix and Pinal, within SV
Commuter Rail
Viable alternative to I-10 through SVFreeways
Significance of John Wayne AirportPhoenix-Mesa Gateway Influence
Comprehensive regional open space strategy
Open Spaces and Parks/Recreation
Several regional HQs, one or two
national HQsMajor Employer
Campuses/National Headquarters
New public or private university on siteHigher Education
Leading edge of best practicesEnergy Sustainability/Climate
Cultural facilities of regional
importanceCultural Amenities
Visitation patterns established;
resort/convention hotelsResort/Hospitality/Tourism/Entertainment
REQUIRED INTENSITY OF CATALYST TO ACHIEVE HIGH SCENARIO CAPTURETYPE OF CATALYST
Destination health campus, emphasis on research
Health Care/Health Sciences
Minimal (connects to the grid)Heavy (Freight) Rail
Connections to Phoenix and Pinal, within SV
Commuter Rail
Viable alternative to I-10 through SVFreeways
Significance of John Wayne AirportPhoenix-Mesa Gateway Influence
Comprehensive regional open space strategy
Open Spaces and Parks/Recreation
Several regional HQs, one or two
national HQsMajor Employer
Campuses/National Headquarters
New public or private university on siteHigher Education
Leading edge of best practicesEnergy Sustainability/Climate
Cultural facilities of regional
importanceCultural Amenities
Visitation patterns established;
resort/convention hotelsResort/Hospitality/Tourism/Entertainment
REQUIRED INTENSITY OF CATALYST TO ACHIEVE HIGH SCENARIO CAPTURETYPE OF CATALYST
