WHAT TO EXPECT FROM THE GLOBAL FACILITY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION AND RECOVERY (GFDRR) AND THE

GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE MODEL (GEM’S) RISK COMPONENTS WORLDWIDE & GEM CARIBBEAN WORKING GROUPS ON

SEISMIC RISK

A presentation by Dr. Myron W. Chin PhD, CEng, FICE, FIStructE, FAPETT

GEM OPERATIONAL MANAGER FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEISMIC RESEARCH CENTRE, UWI

at the

GEM SESSION 6th CARIBBEAN CONFERENCE ON CDM

At Hyatt Regency, Port of Spain, TRINIDAD

5th DEC. 2011

Copyright © Myron Chin 2011

SUMMARY OF PRESENTATION

- INTRODUCTORY REMARKS

- TYPES OF NATURAL HAZARDS IN THE CARIBBEAN

- SOME EXAMPLES OF DAMAGE

DONE BY RECENT EARTHQUAKES

- LAUNCH OF GEM IN THE CARIBBEAN

- REGIONAL WORKING GROUPS (WGs)

- WHAT IS GFDRR AND WHAT TO EXPECT FROM IT IN THE CARIBBEAN?

- DRRC RISK ATLAS PROJECT

- SOME OF PROPOSED RESEARCH PROJECTS OF WGs ON SEISMIC RISK

- ACTIVE FAULTS –CENTRAL RANGE FAULT, T&T

- BUILDING INVENTORY

- CONCLUDING REMARKS

INTRODUCTORY REMARKS

The entire Caribbean Basin is prone to socio-natural and man-made disasters

ECLAC estimates that the disaster impact is over 1.5 billion US dollars/year

A number of national, regional (ODPM, CDEMA,SRC,CDB, APRM, ACS) and international organizations (PAHO, OAS) are currently working in this area.

Now we have GFDRR & GEM

Caribbean Natural Hazards

Geological:

Earthquakes

Volcanic activity

Tsunamis

Landslides

Meteorological:

Hurricanes

Storm surge and wave action

Torrential rains

Caribbean plate (after Weber)

Tobago

Vertical neotectonics (tilting)(after Weber)

Ca-SA: 20 mm/yr

El Pilar fault historic + instrumental earthquakes

(6.8)

Mendoza (2000)

Perez et al. 2001

VENEZUELA

NA

SF

PF

0 mm/a

20

MF

san

a

VENEZUELA

NA

FS

FP

20 mm/yr

FM

-68°

sana

CANOA

sana

MAR CARIBE

17°

N

-58° -74° W

6°

MAJOR FAULTS IN TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO (After Lloyd Lynch)

TOBAGO EARTHQUAKE OF 1997-04-02 (After Joan Latchman)

12

Justification for Concern about Natural Hazards

( As stated by Tony Gibbs) • Rising insurance premiums • Vulnerable tourism facilities • Special concerns of small island

states • Destructive recent Hurricanes and

Earthquakes

SOME EXAMPLES OF EARTHQUAKE DAMAGE IN THE CARIBBEAN

REGION

-TOBAGO EARTHQUAKES – 1997-04-02 &22 -MAGNITUDE 5.6 & 6.1

-DOMINICA EARTHQUAKE – 2004-11-21 -MAGNITUDE 6.0

-HAITI EARTHQUAKE - 2010-01-12 -MAGNITUDE 7.0

TYPICAL DAMAGE – TOBAGO EARTHQUAKE OF 1997-04-02 (MAGNITUDE 5.6) (Photo courtesy Dr. Joan Latchman)

TYPICAL DAMAGE -1 –DOMINICA EARTHQUAKE OF 2004-11-21( MAGNITUDE 6.0)

Portsmouth Methodist Church Recreational Centre (Photos –courtesy Dr. R. Clarke)

TYPICAL DAMAGE -2- DOMINICA EARTHQUAKE OF 2004-11-21

Portsmouth Methodist Church Recreational Centre (Photo–courtesy Dr. R. Clarke)

TYPICAL DAMAGE -3- DOMINICA EARTHQUAKE OF 2004-11-21

Portsmouth RC Church Front Wall and Corners Collapse (Photo–courtesy Dr. R. Clarke)

TYPICAL DAMAGE -4- DOMINICA EARTHQUAKE OF 2004-11-21

Portsmouth RC Church Close-up of Collapse(Photo–courtesy Dr. R. Clarke)

TYPICAL DAMAGE -5 – FLAT ROOF COLLAPSE HAITI EARTHQUAKE OF 2010-01-12 (7.0 MAG.)

(Photo–courtesy Dr. R. Clarke)

(Photo–courtesy Dr. R. Clarke)

TYPICAL DAMAGE -6 – OUT OF PLANE COLLAPSE HAITI EARTHQUAKE OF 2010-01-12

(Photo–courtesy Dr. R. Clarke)

TYPICAL DAMAGE -7– FAILURE OF COLUMNS HAITI EARTHQUAKE OF 2010-01-12

(Photo–courtesy Dr. D. Gay)

GFDRR –GLOBAL FACILITY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION AND RECOVERY – WEBSITE :- www.gfdrr.org

Established in 2006, the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) is a partnership of 38 countries and 7 international organizations committed to helping developing countries reduce their vulnerability to natural hazards and adapt to climate change. The partnership’s mission is to mainstream disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA) in country development strategies by supporting a country-led and managed implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA). GFDRR’s Partnership Charter, revised in April 2010, sets its original mission, rationale, and governance structure. GFDRR has three main business lines to achieve its development objectives at the global, regional and country levels. Track-I: Global and Regional Partnerships Track-II: Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) in Development Track-III: Standby Recovery Financing Facility (SRFF) for Accelerated Disaster Recovery

DEVELOPMENT OF CARIBBEAN RISK ATLAS FOR EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS (RISK ATLAS PROJECT)

• Project Manager: U.W.I Disaster Risk Reduction Centre (DRRC) at Mona, UWI in Jamaica.

• Main Sponsor: World Bank with funds from GFDRR

• Completion Date: December 2011.

DEVELOPMENT OF CARIBBEAN RISK ATLAS FOR EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS (RISK ATLAS PROJECT)

• OBJECTIVES

To develop a methodology for seismic risk assessment in the Caribbean for three pilot States: Jamaica, Grenada and Barbados.

To provide guidelines and open-source software for the estimation of earthquake loss using available socio-economic data.

Project Components • Seismic hazard assessment for Jamaica in terms of

PGA and spectral ordinates for 0.2s and 1.0s

• For Barbados and Grenada: we will use the seismic hazard results of the Eastern Caribbean Project (SRC/EUCENTRE).

• Development/Adapted Fragility Curves

• Modification, testing and validation of ELE software

• Determination of data requirements and collection of geo-referenced data

• Risk evaluation

VULNERABILITY AND BUILDING STOCK

Precast houses

Reinforced concrete apartments

Reinforced concrete

buildings on slopes

Masonry Houses

Modern Reinforced Concrete Building at New Kingston

Wooden house

SURVEY ON DECEMBER 2010 - Kingston

Historical Buildings

DEVELOPMENT OF FRAGILITY CURVES FOR pre-cast houses

Connections between panels are effected by welding together matching metal angle sections embedded in the edge ribs of the panels.

Heavy roof

FUTURE WORK

GEM collaboration:

- Collaboration with GEM in terms of assistance with the OpenQuake software development.

- Two of our Research Assistants from SRC spent two months at the GEM Headquarters from end August to end October 2011 to learn about OpenQuake and to analyse the data collected under the DRRC Risk Atlas Project in order to assess its applicability to the Caribbean Region.

THE GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE MODEL (GEM)

“A collaborative effort devised and launched by

OECD’s Global Science Forum, aimed at

engaging the global community in the design,

development and deployment of uniform open

standards and tools for earthquake risk

assessment worldwide”

PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP

10 countries

have adhered so

far

discussions and

negotiations are ongoing

with 15+ others

7 private organisations have

partnered up with GEM so far

they contribute

13.6 M Euro

the OECD, World Bank, UNESCO,

UN/ISDR, IAEE and IASPEI are associate

participants

SCIENTIFIC FRAMEWORK OF GEM

Hazard Probability, Intensity, 

Loca on 

Exposure Value, Loca on; Physical, Social, 

Economic 

Vulnerability Physical, Social, 

Economic, Ins tu onal;  Func ons, Indicators 

Risk and Impact Analysis Damage and loss maps, loss exceedance curves, 

risk indicators, indirect losses, impact on society/ economy… 

Decision‐Making Tools Con ngency Planning, Territorial 

Planning, Cost‐Benefit

 

Anal ysi s,  Ri sk Governance etc. 

FIRST PRODUCTS

OpenQuake is an open source software application that allows users to

compute seismic hazard and risk on any scale, developed as an open source

project, available for download from http://openquake.org.

What is ?

ROLE OF GEM’S EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE IN BRINGING ACTIVITIES OF VARIOUS COMPONENTS TOGETHER

GEM Brochure

Available from website and hard-copy

Bi-monthly e-Newsletter

Sign-up at website

STAY UPDATED

GEM Report 2009/2010 v2

Available from website and hard-copy

GEM Website –

www.globalquakemodel.org

Most update source of information

News, results, calls, …

www.globalquakemodel.org

LAUNCH OF GEM CARIBBEAN PROGRAMME

-The development of Regional Programmes (RPs) is

the main mechanism through which the GEM tools will be transferred with a view to creating a uniform globally used standard. The RPs involve local experts using GEM software and tools, who generate local data and validate the data and standards that are being created on the global level. -The Institution of Structural Engineers (Caribbean Division) hosted a presentation of the GEM project at the Normandie Hotel in Trinidad on 15 October 2010.

LAUNCH OF GEM CARIBBEAN REGIONAL PROGRAMME (Cont’ed)

-In January 2011, the GEM Foundation (hereinafter referred to as GEM) engaged The Seismic Research Centre (SRC) of The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine, to promote the GEM vision in the Caribbean. Funding became available in March 2011 at which time the GEM Operational Manager, Dr. Myron Chin, was appointed. He will, in collaboration with all players/stakeholders from the Caribbean community, spearhead the implementation of the GEM initiative in the Insular Caribbean and the effective functioning of the GEM Regional Programme (RP) for the Caribbean

HIGHLIGHTS OF GEM THREE-DAY WORKSHOP- MAY 2-4,2011 TO LAUNCH GEM REGIONAL

PROGRAMME IN THE CARIBBEAN

-OPENED BY HON. MINISTER OF SCIENCE,

TECHNOLOGY AND TERTIARY EDUCATION

- PRESENTATIONS BY DRS. RUI PINHO,MARCO PAGANI

AND HELEN CROWLEY OF GEM SECRETARIAT AND

TWENTY OTHERS

-ACTIVE PARTICIPATION BY SOME 68 PARTICIPANTS

FROM NINE CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES

- SEVEN REGIONAL WORKING GROUPS FORMED

- FULL DETAILS OF WORKSHOP CAN BE FOUND AT:

http://uwiseismic.com/General.aspx?id=91

HON. MINISTER FAZAL KARIM OPENS GEM WORKSHOP

PRESENTATION BY DR. RUI PINHO –SECRETARY-GENERAL OF GEM

PRESENTATION BY DR. MARCO PAGANI –GEM CO-ORDINATOR FOR HAZARD

PRESENTATION BY DR. HELEN CROWLEY –GEM COORDINATOR FOR RISK

GEM WORKSHOP –2-4 MAY 2011 GROUP PHOTOGRAPH

GEM CARIBBEAN SEVEN REGIONAL WORKING GROUPS

HAZARD- OVERALL CO-ORDINATOR –Dr. Walter Salazar (Co-opted on 2011-05-19)

Group 1: Active Faults Project Leader: Rafi Ahmed (MONA GEOINFORMATICS – UWI MONA, JAMAICA) Participants: Franck Audemard y Luz Rodríguez (FUNVISIS, Venezuela) Lyndon Brown (Earthquake Unit, UWI Mona, Jamaica), Wayne Adams (Consultant Jamaica) Barbara Carby (DRRC, UWI Mona, Jamaica) Joan Latchman SRC, UWI, Trinidad Enrique Arango, CENAIS, Mexico Krishna Persad, Krishna Persad & Assoc. Ltd, Trinidad

(2001, 2002)

(2001)

Paleoseismology: locked or creeping CRF?(after Weber)

Prentice et al. 2010

CENTRAL RANGE FAULT (AFTER WEBER)

Holocene

FAULT

2002 Trench 9

CENTRAL RANGE FAULT (AFTER WEBER)

GEM CARIBBEAN -7 REGIONAL WORKING GROUPS (Cont’ed)

RISK- OVERALL CO-ORDINATOR -Dr. Myron Chin Group 5: Exposure Leaders of Sub-Groups: •Building Codes: Carlos Buron •Critical Facilities: Wayne Adams •Retrofitting: Didier Deris •Expert Judgement: Anthony Farrell •Building Inventory: Kevin Granger Members: Jacob Opadeyi, Jan Vermeiren, Cassandra La Barrie, Mona GeoInformatics ( Sub-group co-opted on 2011-05-12) •Databases: Myron Chin, SRC, UWI, Trinidad Members:to be co-opted by Leaders of Groups/SubGroups

GROUP 5 –EXPOSURE –BUILDING CODES ONE GEM PROJECT IS A NATIONAL BUILDING CODE FOR T&T

52

Project objectives 1. Develop a Crowdsourcing model which is appropriate to this Region and in keeping with GEM Standards. Crowdsourcing refers to the act of outsourcing tasks, traditionally performed by employees or contracted labour, to a relatively undefined, large group of people or community (a “crowd”), through an open call. I have chosen to refine this Wikipedia definition to include the word “relatively” as the intention of this project is to break up the crowd into two categories. The Bounded Crowd will be those participators who will not have any specific experience in structural data collection and will be limited in the data that they can submit. These participators will be responsible for creating the Level 1 attributes as defined in the GEM Taxonomy. Level 1 attributes will be those attributes that are easily observable and will also include remote sensing, rapid assessments by municipalities (admin staff), engineers, architects, technicians, and social scientists. The Unbounded Crowd will therefore be those participators who will have had sufficient experience in structural data collection techniques to be responsible for submitting Level 2 attributes. These attributes will contain detailed structural and non-structural information obtained from a detailed building assessment by a qualified engineer. Partnership with GEM appointed agencies/tools or other groups like UShahidi (see www.ushahidi.com) would allow us to create a web-based system that can assemble rank and filter the input from the crowd and present weighted results.

GROUP 5 –EXPOSURE –BUILDING INVENTORY –LEADER –KEVIN GRANGER

GEM CARIBBEAN -7 REGIONAL WORKING GROUPS (Cont’ed)

Group 6: Vulnerability Tentative Leader: Dr. R. Clarke

Members: -Col. Dave Williams, Mr. Allan Stewart, Grisel

Morejon, CENAIS, Cuba, Jillian St. Bernard, SRC, UWI

Leader of Sub-Group: Tony Gibbs

-Effectiveness of Compliance Mechanisms

Members: - Didier Deris, Jan Vermeiren

Group 7: Socio-Economic Impact (SEI)- OVERALL CO-ORDINATOR – Myron Chin

Leader of Sub-Group:- Jan Vermeiren

-Disaster Financing:

Members-Didier Deris, C. Rogers, Tony Gibbs, Fernando

Guasch, CENAIS, Cuba

- Valuation –real estate

Leader of Sub-Group: Stacey Edwards ( Co-opted by M. Chin)

- Education and Outreach

- Members: Alia Juman, SRC, UWI, Ibia Vega, CENAIS, Cuba

SOME EXAMPLES OF POTENTIAL USE OF GEM TOOLS AND

MODELS IN THE CARIBBEAN.

55

GEM’s model and tools are envisaged to support a wide range of users, both from the

public and private sectors, regional and national organizations, non-governmental

bodies and also individuals in earthquake prone areas.

The following examples are some of the potential use of GEM tools and models:-

•A country’s Minister of Planning and Development may wish to find out how the

effect of different possible earthquake scenarios might affect the Gross Domestic

Product (GDP) of the country.

•A national disaster organization would like to see the expected distribution of damage

and fatalities within an urban area for a selected scenario earthquake for emergency

management planning.

•A reinsurer or national primary insurer would like to calculate the average annual

loss and probable maximum loss to a portfolio of buildings (based on their own input

exposure data).

•A geologist would like to carry out a new tectonic analysis in proximity to a dam, and

would like to download data on active faults as a starting point for his/her study.

•An engineer who is working on the design of a bridge located in a zone of seismic

activity, would like to obtain uniform hazard spectra at different return periods for

different performance limit states.

•An individual would like to understand how hazardous the area is, where (s)he is

planning to build a house.

CONCLUDING REMARKS

In concluding this Presentation, it is appropriate to make the

following remarks-

- GFDRR AND GEM INITIATIVES PRESENT EXCELLENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR

CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES SUCH AS T&T TO DEVELOP STRATEGIES FOR DISASTER RISK

REDUCTION.

-GEM IS A GLOBAL ATTEMPT AT COLLABORATIVE DEVELOPMENT OF OPEN-SOURCE

SOFTWARE, TRANSPARENT TOOLS AND MODELS FOR EARTHQUAKE RISK ASSESSMENT

WORLDWIDE BY INVOLVING EXPERTS AND PROFESSIONALS FROM ALL REGIONS OF

THE WORLD AND AS SUCH PROVIDES A CATALYST FOR EARTHQUAKE RISK REDUCTION

NOT ONLY IN THE CARIBBEAN BUT THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WORLD

- GEM CARIBBEAN RP PROVIDES AN OPPORTUNITY TO BRING TOGETHER EARTHQUAKE

RISK REDUCTION PROFESSIONALS FROM THE CARIBBEAN REGION TO WORK

TOGETHER IN ADAPTING THE TOOLS SUCH AS OPENQUAKE AND MODELS DEVELOPED

BY GEM SO THAT EARTHQUAKE RISK CAN BE BETTER ASSESSED IN THE VARIOUS

ISLANDS OF THE CARIBBEAN.