What the Weather Will Bring or Agricultural Weather in Wisconsin
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Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 What the Weather Will What the Weather Will Bring Bring or or Agricultural Weather in Wisconsin Agricultural Weather in Wisconsin Wisconsin Agri-Service Association Wisconsin Agri-Service Association 9 9 th th Annual Trade Show 30 January Annual Trade Show 30 January 2003 2003 Lake Delton, WI Lake Delton, WI Prof. John A. Young Prof. John A. Young & & E. J. Hopkins E. J. Hopkins Dept. of Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences Dept. of Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences University of Wisconsin-Madison University of Wisconsin-Madison
description
What the Weather Will Bring or Agricultural Weather in Wisconsin. Wisconsin Agri-Service Association 9 th Annual Trade Show 30 January 2003 Lake Delton, WI Prof. John A. Young & E. J. Hopkins Dept. of Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences University of Wisconsin-Madison. Our Road Map. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of What the Weather Will Bring or Agricultural Weather in Wisconsin
Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 11
What the Weather Will BringWhat the Weather Will Bringor or
Agricultural Weather in WisconsinAgricultural Weather in Wisconsin
Wisconsin Agri-Service Association Wisconsin Agri-Service Association 99thth Annual Trade Show 30 January 2003 Annual Trade Show 30 January 2003
Lake Delton, WILake Delton, WI
Prof. John A. YoungProf. John A. Young
&& E. J. Hopkins E. J. HopkinsDept. of Atmospheric & Oceanic SciencesDept. of Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences
University of Wisconsin-MadisonUniversity of Wisconsin-Madison
Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 22
Our Road MapOur Road Map
IntroductionIntroduction What we have: Current MapsWhat we have: Current Maps What we think: Analysis & ForecastsWhat we think: Analysis & Forecasts Who and Where we areWho and Where we are
Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 33
Current Drought Conditions Current Drought Conditions from National Drought Mitigation Centerfrom National Drought Mitigation Center
Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 44
U.S. Drought Monitor MapU.S. Drought Monitor Mapfromfrom National Drought Mitigation CenterNational Drought Mitigation Center
Considers:Considers:– Agricultural, Hydrological DroughtAgricultural, Hydrological Drought– Fire DangerFire Danger
Depends Upon:Depends Upon:– Palmer Drought Index (PDSI)Palmer Drought Index (PDSI)– CPC Soil Moisture ModelCPC Soil Moisture Model– USGS Weekly Streamflow USGS Weekly Streamflow – Percent of Normal PrecipitationPercent of Normal Precipitation– Standardized Precipitation IndexStandardized Precipitation Index– Satellite Vegetation Health IndexSatellite Vegetation Health Index
Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 55
Drought Conditions: Drought Conditions: Since Early November 2002Since Early November 2002
from National Drought Mitigation Centerfrom National Drought Mitigation Center
Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 66
December Precipitation December Precipitation From Climate Prediction CenterFrom Climate Prediction Center
Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 77
Current Palmer Drought Severity Index Current Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)(PDSI)
Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 88
Current Crop Moisture Index Current Crop Moisture Index
Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 99
Precipitation Needed to Bring PDSI to -0.5Precipitation Needed to Bring PDSI to -0.5
Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 1010
Recent Soil Moisture from CPCRecent Soil Moisture from CPC
Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 1111
Recent Soil Moisture from CPCRecent Soil Moisture from CPC
Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 1212
Current 30 Day Precipitation DepartureCurrent 30 Day Precipitation DepartureFrom Midwestern Regional Climate CenterFrom Midwestern Regional Climate Center
Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 1313
Current Soil Moisture DepartureCurrent Soil Moisture DepartureFrom Midwestern Regional Climate CenterFrom Midwestern Regional Climate Center
Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 1414
Recent Streamflow Recent Streamflow (from USGS)(from USGS)
Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 1515
Standardized Precipitation Index Standardized Precipitation Index for Nov-Dec 2002 for Nov-Dec 2002 ((from NCDCfrom NCDC))
Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 1616
History of Statewide PDSIHistory of Statewide PDSI From National Climate Data CenterFrom National Climate Data Center
PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX 1895-2002Wisconsin Statewide Average [Source: NCDC]
-9
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
1895 1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995
Year
Pal
mer
Dro
ug
ht
Sev
erit
y In
dex
[--
]
DroughtDroughtDrought
DroughtDrought
Wet WetWetWet
Drought
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Departures of ANNUAL AVERAGE STATEWIDE PRECIPITATIONfrom Long-term (1891-2000) Mean: WISCONSIN
Source: NCDC
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
YEARS
PR
EC
IPIT
AT
ION
DE
PA
RT
UR
ES
[in
ches
]
History of Wisconsin Statewide Precipitation History of Wisconsin Statewide Precipitation
From Moran & Hopkins, 2002From Moran & Hopkins, 2002
WetWetWet
DryDry
DryDry
Dry Dry
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Monitoring Current Sea Surface TemperaturesMonitoring Current Sea Surface Temperatures From Climate Prediction Center
Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 1919
Jet Stream during Dec. 2002Jet Stream during Dec. 2002
Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 2020
El NiEl Niñño Winter Temperature Impact o Winter Temperature Impact
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El NiEl Niñño Winter Temperature Impact o Winter Temperature Impact
Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 2222
From National Climate Data Center (NCDC)From National Climate Data Center (NCDC) based on 108 yrs. (1895-2002)based on 108 yrs. (1895-2002)
Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 2323
El NiEl Niñño Spring Precipitation Impact o Spring Precipitation Impact
Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 2424
El NiEl Niñño Spring Precipitation Impact o Spring Precipitation Impact
Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 2525
Dec. 2002 Precipitation RanksDec. 2002 Precipitation RanksFrom National Climate Data Center (NCDC)From National Climate Data Center (NCDC)
based on 108 yrs. (1895-2002)based on 108 yrs. (1895-2002)
Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 2727
Saturday’s Forecast of PDSISaturday’s Forecast of PDSIfrom Climate Prediction Centerfrom Climate Prediction Center
Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 2828
CPC Soil Moisture ForecastCPC Soil Moisture Forecastat end of Next Weekat end of Next Week
Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 2929
CPC Soil Moisture ForecastCPC Soil Moisture Forecastat end of Next 2 Weeksat end of Next 2 Weeks
Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 3030
LATE WINTER FORECASTLATE WINTER FORECASTFrom NOAA Climate Prediction CenterFrom NOAA Climate Prediction Center
Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 3131
THREE MONTH DROUGHT FORECASTTHREE MONTH DROUGHT FORECASTFrom NOAA Climate Prediction CenterFrom NOAA Climate Prediction Center
Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 3232
THE WISCONSIN
STATE CLIMATOLOGY OFFICE your resource for weather and climate information
John A. YoungJohn A. Young DirectorDirector Lyle AndersonLyle Anderson Data ManagerData Manager Traci WestphalTraci Westphal Asst. ClimatologistAsst. Climatologist Ed HopkinsEd Hopkins ConsultantConsultant
UW-Madison Partner: UW-Madison Partner: Atmospheric & Oceanic SciencesAtmospheric & Oceanic Sciences
WHO WE AREWHO WE ARE
Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 3333
WHERE WE AREWHERE WE ARE
1225 W. Dayton St., Madison
Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 3434
Climatological Divisions for Wisconsin Climatological Divisions for Wisconsin (NCDC)(NCDC)
Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 3535
ContactContact John A. YoungJohn A. Young
Dept. of Atmospheric & Oceanic SciencesDept. of Atmospheric & Oceanic SciencesUW-MadisonUW-Madison1225 W. Dayton1225 W. Dayton608/262-2828608/[email protected]
Edward J. Hopkins Edward J. Hopkins [email protected]@meteor.wisc.edu
Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 3636
Useful LinksUseful Links
State Climatology Office State Climatology Office http://www.aos.wisc.edu/~sco/http://www.aos.wisc.edu/~sco/
Midwestern Regional Climate CenterMidwestern Regional Climate Centerhttp://mrcc.sws.uiuc.edu/http://mrcc.sws.uiuc.edu/
Climate Prediction Center (NWS)Climate Prediction Center (NWS)http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
National Climate Data Center (NCDC)National Climate Data Center (NCDC)http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.htmlhttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html
Drought MonitorDrought Monitorhttp://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.htmlhttp://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html
Joint Agricultural Weather Facility (USDA & NOAA)Joint Agricultural Weather Facility (USDA & NOAA)http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/jawf/http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/jawf/
NOAA Drought Information CenterNOAA Drought Information Center
http://www.drought.noaa.gov/http://www.drought.noaa.gov/
