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Center for Immigration Studies

1629 K Street, NW, Suite 600, Washington, DC 20006 • Phone 202.466.8185 • Fax 202.466.8076 • www.cis.org

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November 2019

The irregular migrant flow was exploited in order to dispatch terrorist operatives clandestinely to Europe. IS and possibly other jihadist terrorist organizations may continue to do so.

— “European Union Terrorism Situation and Trend Report 2017”1

It remains a theoretical vulnerability but not one that terrorists have been able to exploit. — Nicholas Rasmussen, former National Counterterrorism Center director under the Obama administration,

January 2019, regarding such infiltration over the U.S. southern border.2

Key Findings• Atleast104IslamistextremistsenteredtheEuropeanUnion’s(EU)externalbordersusinglong-haulir-

regularmigrationmethodsbetween2014-2018,establishingproof-of-conceptforapreviouslytheoreticalterrorismtraveltacticoverborders.

• Ofthe104migrantterroristsidentifiedforthe2014-2018period,28successfullycompletedattacksthatclaimedthelivesof170victimsandwounded878.Anadditional37werearrestedorkilledplottingat-tacks,and39otherswerearrestedforillegalinvolvementwithforeignterroristorganizations.

• Amajorityofthe104terroristsappliedforinternationalprotectionssuchasasylumandwereabletore-maininEuropeannationsforanaverageof11monthsbeforeattacksorarrestsforplots,demonstratingthatasylumprocessesaccommodatedplotincubation.

• Whiletotalnumbersofmigrant-terroristswereafractionofoverallirregularmigration,theiractivitiesdemonstratethatsmallnumberspresentoutsizedthreatstotheUnitedStatesshouldonlyafewstrikehere.InEurope,arelativefewupendedlongstandingpoliticalpowerbalances,promptedamajormilitarycampaign,forcedmassivepublicexpendituresonnewsecuritypolicies,promptedtheUKvotetoexittheEuropeanUnion,anddisruptedthefreemovementofpeoplewithintheSchengenzone.

• Americansecurityandcounter-terrorismintelligencemeasureslikelyhavepreventedsomemigrant-ter-roristsfromconductingattacksandmaypartlyexplaintheabsenceofattackstodatefromovertheU.S.southernborder.However,anelevatedthreatofterroristinfiltrationviatheborderpersistsduetoneglectandexploitableflawsintheAmericanmeasures.

What Terrorist Migration Over European Borders Can Teach About American Border SecurityBy Todd Bensman

1629KStreet,NW,Suite600•Washington,DC20006•(202)466-8185•center@cis.org•www.cis.org

Todd Bensman is a senior national security fellow at the Center for Immigration Studies.

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Center for Immigration Studies

IntroductionInSeptember2018,theWhiteHousereleasedits“NationalStrategyforCounterterrorism”,outliningthenation’snewcoun-terterrorismprioritiessince2011.ThiswasthelatestiterationofatraditionthatPresidentGeorgeW.Bushstartedafter9/11,ofbreakingouttheterrorismthreatfromthebroader NationalSecurityStrategyinFebruary2003.3Anupdatewasappro-priatebecause,sincethelastoneinJune2011,muchinthethreatlandscapehaddrasticallychangedwith,forinstance,thefailureofthe“ArabSpring”,andtheriseandfallofanISIS“caliphate”inSyria.

Anentirelynewphenomenonon the contemporary threat stage found itsway to aprominentplace in the2018WhiteHouse’sNationalStrategyforCounterterrorism,thoughalmostcompletelyunremarkeduponsince.Thestrategyobservedthatoverthepreviousfewyears,Islamistterroristshad,“togreateffect”,infiltratedEuropeanlandborders“bycapitalizingonthemigrantcrisistoseedattackoperativesintotheregion.”4ThedocumentwentontoframetheinfiltrationeventsofEuropeasareplicableprospectfortheAmericansouthernlandborder:

Europe’s struggle to screen the people crossing its borders highlights the importance of ensuring strong United States bor-ders so that terrorists cannot enter the United States.5

Between2014and2017,13ofthe26memberstates liningtheso-calledSchengenArea’sexternal landbordersrecordedmorethan2.5milliondetectionsofillegalborder-crossingsalongseverallandandsearoutes,anhistoric,mostlyunfetteredsurgethatcametobeknownasthe“migrantcrisis”.6TheSchengenArea,whichgenerallyencompassestheEuropeanUnion,consistsofcountriesthatcombinedimmigrationenforcementofacommonexternalborderof27,000seamilesand5,500landmileswhileremovingallinteriorbordercontrolstofacilitatethefreemovementofgoodsandpeople.7

Duringthe2014-2018migrantcrisis,themajorityoftravelerswhocrossedtheexternalborderandwerethenabletomoveunfetteredbetweenmembernationscamefromnationsintheMiddleEast,suchasSyriaandIraq;SouthAsia,suchasAf-ghanistanandPakistan;andAfrica,suchasSomaliaandEritrea.8ItfirstbecameknownthatsomeISISterroristoperativesalsowereintheflowsaftersomeofthemcommittedtheNovember2015ParisattackscitedintheWhiteHousestrategy,andthentheMarch2016Brusselsattacks.9

TheWhiteHousestrategycitedtheprospectofEurope-styleterroristborderinfiltrationattheAmericanbordertosupportvariousU.S.strategicgoalssuchas:“OurbordersandallportsofentryintotheUnitedStatesaresecureagainstterroristthreats,”andto“enhancedetectionanddisruptionofterroristtravel”byworkingwithforeignpartnersto“preventterroristsfleeingconflictzonesfrominfiltratingcivilianpopulations.”10

Thestrategydocument,however,falteredsomewhatincitingsufficientsupportingevidenceforitsideathattheEuropeanexperiencecarriedimplicationsforU.S.bordersecurity,offeringonlythat“twooftheperpetratorsofthe2015ISISattacksinParis,France,infiltratedthecountryposingasmigrants.”Opensourceswerealreadyshowingconsiderablyhighernumbersthan“two”,but,tobefair,noconcertedpublic-realmefforttoquantifythetotaloranalyzeitsmeaninghadoccurredatthatpointintime.11OthermigrantsinEuropewereimplicatedinterrorattacks,plots,andinvolvementwithlegallybannedter-roristgroups.SomehadbeenEuropeancitizensfightingwithISISinSyriawhoposedasrefugeestoenableclandestineentry,whileotherswerefromcountrieswhereIslamistterroristorganizationsandideologiesarepresent.

Absentquantifiedanalysis,electoratesandleadershipshavenotwidelyacknowledgedthatanewinnovationinterrortravelhademerged,withimplicationsfortheUnitedStates.Somereportinghasbetterquantifiedhowoftenterroristsusedmigra-tionmethodstobreachEuropeanborders,notablybyresearcherSamMullinsoftheGeorgeC.MarshallEuropeanCenterforSecurityStudiesandbyRobinSimcoxoftheHeritageFoundation.12Butthetotalityofhowmigrationandterrorisminter-twinedasadestructiveforceagainstEurope,andthecontinent’sresponse,remainslargelyunacknowledged,undocumented,andnotanalyzed.

ThepurposeofthisreportistofurtherdocumenttheextentofEurope’smigrant-terrorismexperience,toanalyzetheU.S.threat,andidentifyEuropeansecurityresponsesthatmightbeapplicabletoU.S.bordersecuritystrategy.

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MethodologyAkeystudyobjectivewastoaccountforthenumbersofsuspectedterroristswhousedirregularoverlandmigrationtobreachEuropeanbordersandwhowerethenimplicatedinterroristicactivitiesbetween2014-2018,withashighadegreeofprob-abilityaspublicreportingwouldpermit.13ItisbasedonanNVIVOsoftware-managedcollectionofapproximately480mediaandgovernmentreportsthatwereindividuallyanalyzedtoanswertheresearchquestions.14Muchinformationregardingindividualsuspectsremainedbehindlawenforcementandintelligencefirewalls.Therefore,thebulkofdataforthisstudyhadtobederivedfromimperfectmediaandunclassifiedgovernmentreporting,afactorthisstudyconsideredinitsdataanalysis.Mediareports,forinstance,sometimesprovedincompleteorwerenotupdatedtoconfirmhowindividualstraveledanden-teredtheEU,orwhatbecameoftheircases.Europeanlawenforcementoftenwithheldcompletenamesofperpetrators.ThisreportattemptedtoascribeconfidencetowhetherspecificterroristsuspectsshouldbecountedashavingreachedEuropeviaoverlandmigrationorappliedforasylumandhowtheadjudicationprocessesunfolded.Judgmentsthereforehadtobemade,possiblyerror-prone,tocountindividualsbasedonthetotalityandqualityofreporting.Caseswerecategorizedas“mediumpossibility”,“strongprobability”,and“confirmed”.Onlythoserated“strongprobability”and“confirmed”werecounted.15

Thisstudyalsosoughttodeterminethevolumesandtypesof“terrorismevents”towhichthemigrant-terroristsuspectscouldbeattributed.Theseweredefinedandcategorizedas“completedattacks”,“thwartedplots”,andfinally“arrests/pros-ecutions”forillegalextremistactivitiesnotassociatedwithanyknownthwartedplotorcompletedattack.Amongthoseinthislattergroup,forinstance,weremigrantsprosecutedforobfuscatingillegalpastparticipationinlegallybannedterroristgroupsorhavingcommittedactsofviolenceelsewhereonbehalfofsuchgroups.

FindingsIslamist extremists entered European external borders as migrants seeking asylum, or posing as refugees, and conduct-ed and plotted attacks in nine countries. The border entries established proof-of-concept for a previously theoretical travel tactic and provided support for securitizing this migration.

BetweenJanuary2014andJanuary2018,atleast104IslamistextremistsenteredEuropebywayofmigrationoverexternalseaand landbordersamongmore than twomillionpeoplewhocrossedexternalEuropeanUnionborders.All104werekilledorarrestedinnineEuropeannationsafterparticipatingeitherincompletedandthwartedattacks,orarrestedforil-legalinvolvementwithdesignatedterroristgroups.

Inallofthesecases,thecommoncircumstancewasthattheactorsusedillicitmigrationandlaterwereimplicatedinspe-cific terrorismactivities, suchasactiveplotsandsuccessfulattacks, aswell aspast involvements thatwould reasonablyindicateaheightenedthreattodestinationcountries.

The majority of the 104 Islamist migrant-terrorists — 75—were primarily affiliated with ISIS, while 13 were affili-atedwithJabhatalNusra.OtherswereassociatedwithAh-rar al Sham, theTaliban,Lashkar-e-Taiba,Al-Shabaab, andtheCaucasianEmirate.Somehadunknownsympathiesandsomeshiftedamongseveralgroups.Onlyonewasawomanandtheiraverageagewas26.TheywerefromSyriaandIraq,butalsofromNorthAfricaandSouthAsia.

MigrantswhoCompletedAttacks

MigrantsArrestedforThwartedPlots

MigrantsArrestedforGeneralTerrorism

MaleSuspects

FemaleSuspects

EuropeanForeignFighterMigrantTrailReturnees

Migrant-TerroristsWhoAppliedforAsylumorProtection

PurposefullyDeployedAttackersandPlotters

Non-DeployedAttackersandPlottersinSmallsCells

LoneOffenderAttackersandPlotters

AverageAge

Youngest

Oldest

ArrestedinMigrantShelter

BalkanRoute

MediterraneanRoute

Quick Facts

Numbersbasedonlyonascertainabledata.

28

37

39

103

1

29

55

40

11

12

26

16

65

22

44

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Completed Attacks (16)

Ofthe104migrantsimplicatedinterroristacts,29wereinvolvedin16completedattacksinsideEuropebetween2015and2018.Theseattackskilled170peopleandwoundedatleast878more,accordingtoananalysisofmediaaccounts.Notcount-edinthistallyisthe2016Christmasmarketvehicle-rammingattackinBerlinbyTunisianasylum-seekerAnisAmri,whichkilled12peopleandinjuredseveraldozenmore.Whilehisattackwasnoteworthyandimpactful,AmriillegallyenteredItalyattheresortislandofLampedusabyposingasanunderagerefugeeonamigrantboatin2011,priortothe2014-2018timeframeforthisstudy.16

Atleast27werepartofonelargecellofoperativesdispatchedontothemigrationtrailsbyISIS.Mostofthe27wereinvolvedinthetwohighest-casualtycompletedattacks:theNovember2015multi-locationstrikesonParisandtheMarch2016at-tacksinBrussels.Mostoftheothercompletedattacksweresmallerinscaleandsometimesinvolvedadditionaldeployedoperativesorlong-distancecommunicationswithISISinSyria.

Emblematiccasesofsuchborder-crossingtravelerswhocompletedattacksincluded:

• MohammadDaleel,27,wasaSyrianasylumseekerwhofoughtwithISISandthenmigratedoverlandbeforeblow-inghimselfupinaJuly2016suicidebombingonawinebarinAnsbach,Germany,injuring15people.Carryingarucksackfilledwithexplosives,Daleelearliertriedtoenteramusicfestivalattendedby2,500peoplebutwasturned

Locations of 104 Known Terror-related Attacks, Plots, and Arrests by Individuals who Crossed Land Borders 2014-2018

Aninteractiveversionofthismapisavailablehere.

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awaybysecurity.AfterfightingwithISISinSyria,hetraveledthroughTurkeytoBulgaria,andthenalongtheBal-kanroutetoGermany,wherehewastwicerejectedforasylum.17Investigatorsfoundbomb-makingmaterialinhisrefugeecenterroomandaphonevideopledgingallegiancetoISIS.ISISlaterclaimedhewasinregularcontactashebuiltthebomboverthreemonths.18

• MuhammadRiyadh,aPakistaniwhotraveledtoGermanyin2015,ostensiblyasanunaccompaniedminor,hadjustmovedfromarefugeecentertoafosterfamilyhomewhenheusedanaxeandknifetocriticallyinjurefourpeopleinatrainparkedataWurzburgstationinJuly2016,shouting“AllahuAkbar.”PoliceshotRiyadhtodeath.Authoritieslaterfoundahand-paintedISISflagandmartyrletterinhisroom,andISISreleasedavideoheleftbehindurgingsimilarattacks.19RiyadhfirstappliedforasyluminHungaryinJune2015andthenattheAustriabordersixmonthslaterunderafalsenameandcountryoforigintoincreasehischancesofapproval.20

• AbderrahmanMechkah,a22-year-oldMoroccanasylumseeker, stabbed twowomen todeathandwoundedsixotherwomeninanAugust2017attackinTurku,Finland,duringwhichpoliceshotandwoundedhim.21MechkaharrivedinFinlandinearly2016as“partofarecordwaveofpeoplefleeingpovertyandviolenceandseekingrefugeinWesternEurope.”22HelivedinareceptioncenterinTurku,appearedtohavebeenradicalizedonline,andwasdeniedasylumbeforetheattack.23

Thwarted Plots (25 Plots)

Ofthe104migrantasylumseekersinvolvedinterrorism,37wereinvolvedin25specificandunspecifiedplotsthatpolicewereabletofoilbyarrestingor,insomecases,shootingthoseinvolved.Somehardlyadvancedbeyondconceptualization.Forexample,SyriannationalAboRobeihTarifwasahumansmugglerusingboatsandanISISmemberwhoplannedtoorganizeandfilmaterrorattackbyotheroperativesuntilarrestedtransporting75refugeesinaboattoItaly.24

Otherplotswerefartheralongbutdidnotyethavesettimesandlocations.Oneexampleis20-year-oldSyrianrefugeeYamenF.,whoarrivedinGermanyattheheightofthemigrantflowinSeptember2015andwasgrantedasylumwhileradicalizingontheinternetandcommunicatingwithISISoperatives.InOctober2017,authoritiesarrestedhimforbuildingabombhehopedwouldkillatleast200Germansinacrowdsomewhere.25

Numerousotherplotshadfullycrystalizedintermsofcapability,times,andlocations,butfailedinexecutionorwerethwart-ed,suchas:

• MohammadJ.,a16-year-oldSyrianwarrefugeewhofledDamascuswithhisfamilyandtraveledthroughLebanonandTurkeytoreachGermanyinJanuary2016,waspreparingabombninemonthslaterfilledwithsewingneedlesforanattackonanunspecified“softtarget”inColognewhenauthoritiesarrestedhimatamigrantcamp.26

• Ayoubel-Khazzani,a25-year-oldMoroccanwhoplannedtomassacretrainpassengersonaFrenchAmsterdam-to-ParistraininAugust2015.Severalcommuterssubduedhim.27El-Khazzani,whohadlegallylivedinSpain,Belgium,andFrance,hadlefttofightwithISISinSyria,andthentraveledthemigrationroutestoreenterEurope,reachingHungarywithanotheroperativethreeweeksbeforetheattack.28

• AladjieTouray,aGambianasylum-seekingmigrantwhopledgedallegiancetoISIS,arrivedinSicilyonaboatwith800othermigrantsinMarch2017.InApril2018,Italianauthoritiesarrestedthe21-year-oldmigrantinNaplesforplanningtodriveavehicleintocrowdsasrequestedbyISIScontacts.29

General Terrorism Involvement (39)

Ofthe104migrantsimplicatedinterroristacts,39werearrestedforillegalpastinvolvementwithterroristorganizationsoutsideofEurope.ThesekindsofarrestswerepredicatedonatrocitiescommittedinSyriaonbehalfofterroristgroups,oronother terrorism-relatedcrimes suchaskidnappings.Generalmembership ina terroristorganizationalso constitutedprosecutablecriminalitythatwouldplaceindividualsinahigh-riskcategoryofmigrantcapableof,andpossiblytrained,to conduct attacks inEurope.For instance,police innorthernGermanyarrested fourbrothers, all Syriannationals, formembershipintheAlNusraFrontterroristorganization,wheretheyallegedlyconductedethnicclearingoperationsandplunderedpropertyofvictims.30NonewereimplicatedinanyspecificattackplotinEurope.Otheremblematiccasesinclude:

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• BenNasrMehdi,a38-year-oldTunisianexplosivesexpert,wasarrestedin2008andsentencedtosevenyears inprisonafterhewasfoundtobetheheadofanal-Qaedaterroristcell.HewasthenextraditedtoTunisia.InOctober2015,hereturnedtoEuropeonamigrantboatfromLibyaandarrivedonItaly’sLampedusaisland.Heusedanaliastoclaimasylumandworkasabrick-layer,buthistrueidentitywasdiscoveredwithafingerprintcheck.31

• MukhamadsaidSaidov,aTajikistanimigrantwhotraveledtoGermanywiththe“refugeewave”onpossibleordersfromISIS,wasarrestedinJune2016forfightingandexecutionsonbehalfofISISinSyriaandIraquntilhewaswoundedinanIraqiairforceairstrike.32FederalprosecutorsallegedthatSaidovbelongedtotheinnercircleofISIScommander-in-chiefGulurodKhalimov.33

• SulimanalShikh,aSyrianmemberoftheAlNusraFront,wasarrestedin2016aftertravelingviaFranceasarefugeeandapplyingforasyluminGermany.The25-year-oldwasconvictedofal-NusraFrontmembershipandparticipat-inginthe2013kidnappingofaUnitedNationsobserverfromCanada.34Frenchprosecutorsaccusedhimofprovid-ingguarddutyforeightmonthsinSyriawhilethegroupawaitedransom.35

Most migrant terrorists involved in thwarted or completed attacks were purposefully deployed to the migration flows by an organized terrorist group to conduct or support attacks in destination countries.

Ofthe65migrant-terroristsinvolvedincompletedorthwartedattacks,atleast40appearedtohavebeenpurposefullyde-ployedintomigrantflowstowardEurope,impersonatingwarrefugees,toconductorsupportattacksinEurope.ISISwasresponsibleforthisinfiltrationoperation.36Elevenothersapparentlyinitiatedattacksorplotsinsmallgroupsofrelativesorassociates,notcoordinatedbyanyforeigngroup.Thebalancewereself-propelledloneoffendersorinformationwasinsuf-ficienttodeterminewhethertheyweredeployed.

Ofthe40thoughttohavebeendeployedwithtraining,logisticalsupport,andplans,approximately27formedonesinglelargecelloftrainedoperativesdeployedbyISISintothemigrationflows,primarilyontheWesternBalkanroutethroughGreeceandthenHungary,toconductterrorattacksinFrance.37InfiltratedcellmemberssupportedandconductedsuicidebombingsatsixlocationsinParisinNovember2015,whichkilled130andinjuredalmost500.InMarch2016,survivingcellmembersthatweretoconductadditionalattacksinFrancechangedplansunderlawenforcementpressureandconductedthreesuicidebombingsinBelgiumthatkilled32andinjured320.Authoritieswouldcontinuetoarrestorkillcellmembersfortwomoreyears.

In2016, the New York Times reported,basedonFrenchintelligencematerial,thataclandestine“externaloperations”divi-sionofISISinJanuary2014sentitsfirstof“atleast”21well-trainedoperativestoEuropecamouflagedamongrefugeeandmigrantflows.HewasaFrenchcitizenborninAlgerianamedIbrahimBoudina,whohadbeenfightinginSyriawithISIS,which“dispatched”himbacktoEuropethroughGreecewiththeintentionofcausingmassmurder.38Greekborderpoliceinterceptedhimtravelinginataxicarryingcashandaninstructionmanualtitled“HowtoMakeArtisanalBombsintheNameofAllah”,butallowedhimtocontinue.39FrenchauthoritiesarrestedBoudinathenextmonthforaplottobombtheannualCannescarnival,seizingthreeRedBullsodacansfilledwith600gramsofTATP,theexplosivelaterusedinParisandBrussels,thenewspaperreported.

MorefighterstrainedbyISISinSyriatraveledthemigrantroutesaloneorinpairsattherateofeverytwotothreemonthsthroughthebalanceof2014andearly2015,accordingtothe Times.40

TheinsertionoftheParis/Brusselscellwasplannedandinternationallysophisticated,involvingaBelgium-basedfake-doc-umentsproducerwhocreatedfraudulentSyrianpassportsthatwereusedbyreturningEuropeancitizenstoposeasSyrianwarrefugees.41Amongtheoperatives,“BilalC”scoutedforopenborders,waitingtimes,refugeetravelroutes,andsmug-glingopportunities.42AmanagingcoordinatorofBelgiannationalitynamedAbdelhamidAbaaoud,whoservedasanISIScommanderinSyria,orchestratedthemovementofISISoperativesandcashalongBilalC.’sroutes,sometimestransportingoperativesfromsafehousesinGreeceorHungarytoBelgiumandFrance,whereexplosivesandweaponswerestockpiled.43BeforeAbaaoudwaskilledinapoliceshootout,hetoldarelativehehadarrangedfor90operativestobetransportedintoEuropeamongmigrants,anumberthathasneitherbeenconfirmednorrefuted.

ISISalsoapparentlysentatleast13others,insmallercellsandindividualsunaffiliatedwiththeParis/Brusselsgroup,tocon-ductotherattacks.Emblematicofthosesenttothemigranttrailsforotherattacks:

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• SyriannationalsSalahA.,HamzaC.,AbdArahmanA.K.,andMahoodB.werefightingwithISISinSyriainearly2014whentheyweredeployedtoGermanyamongthemigrantsmovingviaGreecethroughtheBalkanroute.44TwoofthemenleftwithadvanceorderstoconductamassacreinGermany,ontheoldtownofDusseldorf,usingsuicidevestsandautomaticrifles.45Theywereplottingtheattackfromrefugeecenterswhileapplyingforasylumwhenonecellmemberinformedpoliceabouttheplot.46

• SyriannationalKhaledH.wasfightingwithISISinApril2015whenthegroupreportedlypickedhimfordeploy-mentamongmigrantstoconducta“spectacularatrocity”onacrowdedGermansportsstadium.KhaledH.traveledtheBalkanroutethroughTurkey,Greece,Macedonia,Serbia,Croatia,Slovenia,andAustria.Authoritiesarrestedhiminarefugeecenteramong700otherasylumseekers.47

• TunisiannationalCharfeddineT.hadbeenfightingwithISISinSyriawhenhewasdeployedinOctober2015withafakeSyrianpassportamongthemigrantstoGermany.HewasarrestedinDecember2016onchargesofplottinganunspecifiedattackinBerlin,membershipinaterroristorganization,anddocumentfraud.48Germanprosecutorssaidthe24-year-oldjihadisthadbeencommunicating,fromarefugeecenter,withtheheadofISIS’sexternalopera-tionsdivisionwhoauthorizedtheBerlinmission.49

Otherplotsinvolvedapproximately23self-initiatedloneoffendersandindividualsinsmallclosedgroupswholikelyenteredalreadypredisposedtoradicalization.Thedatawasinsufficienttodeterminewhethertheseoffendersplannedtheattacksbeforeorafterarrival.

MohammedRiyadh(akaRiazKhanAhmadzai)typifiedthisgroup.In2016,policeshotdeadthe17-year-oldPakistaniasy-lumseekerafterheattackedtrainpassengersataGermanstationwithanaxeandknife,criticallyinjuringfour.50Riyadhar-rivedinGermanyayearearlierclaimingtobeanunderage,unaccompaniedminorfromAfghanistan.51ThePakistanisoughtasylumasanAfghanandradicalizedonISISpropagandawhilelivinginrefugeecentersandafosterhome.Policefoundahand-paintedISISflagandevidencesuggestinghewasolderthan17.52

Time Spent in Europe Before Attack or Arrest

30+ Months 3

24-27 Months 1

21-24 Months 3

18-21 Months 7

15-18 Months 2

12-15 Months 3

9-12 Months 10

6-9 Months 5

3-6 Months 4

0-3 Months 17

Average Time Spent in Europe: 11 Months

Thischartrepresentsonly55casesforwhichdatawassufficient;insufficientdatawasnotavailablefor49otherknowncasesinthe2014-2018samplepool.

Common Time Frame for Processing Asylum Claims: 6 Months

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By applying for temporary protections such as asylum, Islamist terrorists who entered European external borders after migration gained legal residence with sufficient time necessary, an average of 11 months, to carry out attacks and to gestate plots.

Duringthe2014-2018migrantcrisis,aprimarybenefittoterroristsappearstohavebeenthelegalresidenceandtimein-countryenabledbyEurope’sprocessesforasylum,refugeestatus,andtemporaryhumanitarianprotection.Theprocessesprovidedampletimeforterroriststoplot,prepare,andkill.

Atleast22terrorsuspectswerearrestedwhilestilllivinginmigrantshelters.

Priorto2016,EuropeanUnionmemberstatesfollowedcommonproceduresforgrantingasylumandtemporaryprotectiontopeoplefleeingpersecutionorharm.Sixmonths(notincludingappeals)wastherecommendedguidelineforadjudicatingapplicationsundertheCommonEuropeanAsylumSystempriortothecrisis,withlegalresidenceandsupportprovidedduringtheprocess.53

Byearly2015,though,extraordinaryvolumesofmigrantsquicklyoverwhelmedthesystem—nearly1.4millionasylumapplicantsin2015andanother1.3millionin2016—fueledbyannouncementsbyGermanChancellorAngelaMerkelandotherleadersthattheywouldwelcomeallrefugees.54Migrantsnotabletoimmediatelyapplyforasylumcouldaskforrefugeestatusortemporary“subsidiaryprotections”,whichentailedauthorizationtostayonhumanitariangroundspendingmorepermanentstatus.55Hundredsofthousandsofmigrantswereallowedinwithtemporaryhumanitarianprotectionin2016alone.56

Therecommendedsix-monthadjudicationbecame11months,whichprovedmorethansufficientforISISoperativesandotherIslamistextremiststocarryoutpre-plannedattacksandforplotstoadvance.

Inthe55migrant-terrorismcasesforwhichtherewassufficientdataconfirmingthatinternationalprotectionapplicationswerefiled,includingthosenotinvolvedinspecificplots,theaveragetimebetweenaborderentryandattackorarrestwas11months,withtheshortesttimebeingninedays(BachirHadjadj)andthelongest31months(MunirHassanMohammad).

SomeoftheterroristsinvolvedintheParisandBrusselsattackswereEuropeancitizenswho,althoughposingasSyrianwarrefugeesandtravelingamongthem,didnotallformallyapplyforasylum,anditwasunclearwhatformsoftemporarypro-tectiontheydidreceiveuponentry.Still,theParis-Brusselsattackerswerein-country(oftenusingfraudulentSyrianidentitydocuments)forbetweenoneandsixmonthsbeforetheystruck,aperiodtheoperativesusedtocompleteplottingandattackstaging.

Afewattackersandaspiringattackersdidnotapplyforinternationalprotectionatallonceinsideatargetcountry,likelytoreducetheriskofdetectionontheassumptionthatintelligenceserviceshadalreadyidentifiedthemandwouldinitiatear-rests—ormostcertainlywouldafterthefirstattacksbegan.Forexample,MohamedBelkaid,a35-year-oldAlgerianISISoperativedeployedwithothersintoEuropeontheBalkanrouteinSeptember2015,livedillegallyinBelgiumforthenextsixmonthswithoutapplyingforprotection.HespentthetimeplottingtheNovemberattacksinParisandwaspreparingforhisownafterwardwhenBelgianpolicesniperskilledhimduringagunbattleatanapartmentwherehehidwithothersurvivingcellmembers.57

In33ofthe55cases,thetimethatelapsedbetweenentryandarrestorattackexceededtheEuropeanUnion’spre-crisisasy-lumadjudicationperiodofsixmonths.In15ofthosecases,thetimelapsewasmorethantwicethat,exceeding15months.In13cases,thetimelapsewas19to31months.

Alsoofthe55cases,35individualswhowereinvolvedinactualattacksandplotswereknowntohaveappliedforasylumorrefugeestatus.Theaveragetimein-countryforthese35was10.9monthsbeforetheyattackedorwerearrestedaheadofanattack.

Thedatapoolindicatesthatmanyofthese35terroriststookadvantageofextendedprocessingdelayscausedbyhighclaimvolumes.Forexample,oneofthelongesttimelapsesinvolvedEritreanasylumseekerMunirHassanMohammadandhisBritishgirlfriend,likewisearadicalizedMuslimwhomhemetonadatingwebsiteafterheillegallyenteredtheUKhiddenaboardatruck.MohammedandpharmacistRowaidaelHassanwerearrestedforplottingChristmas2017terroristactsnear

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Londonusinghomemadebombsandricinpoison.MohammedhadenteredtheUKinFebruary2014,lyingonhisasylumclaim,andwasworkingonfalsepapersinafood-processingfactorywhenhewasarrested31monthslater,inDecember2016,whilelivinginanimmigrationremovalcenter.58HisapplicationtoremainintheUKdespiteadeportationorderwasdelayedinamassivebacklogofunresolvedasylumcasesknowntoofficialsasthe“notstraightforward”list,whichallowedhimtoplottheattack.

Inperhapsthelongestperiodoftimeafterasylumapplicationwasmade(some33months),AfghanasylumseekerJawadS.arrivedinGermanyasanunaccompanied16-year-oldinNovember2015andinitiallylivedwithotherparent-lessasylumseekersinthesmallvillageofPiesport.HewasdescribedasanobservantMuslimwhoprayedfivetimesaday,thoughit’sun-clearwhenJawadS.radicalizedtoacceptviolence.GermanauthoritiesrejectedhisasylumclaiminAugust2017.HemovedaroundGermanywhileanappealmadeitswaythroughthesystem,thenin2018sawafilmabouthowartistsintheNether-landshadridiculedProphetMohammed,angeringMuslimsworldwide.JawadS.traveledtoAmsterdamforthatreasoninAugust2018andstabbedtwoAmericantouristsatthecentraltrainstation.59

TheasylumprocessesofEuropecannotbecreditedwithferretingoutterroristsuspects.Manycasesfollowapatternwhereinformants,investigation,orserendipityledtoarrestsratherthanasylumprocesses.

Forinstance,theSyrianISISmigrantJaberal-BakrwasgrantedasylumfivemonthsafterhemigratedtoGermanyandwasonlymonthsafterward,duetointelligenceunrelatedtotheasylumclaim,arrestedintheadvancedstagesofplanninganISIS-connectedbombattackusing1.5kg.ofexplosivesfoundinhisapartment.60

Thanksmainlytoaserendipitousinformanttip,oneoftheshortesttimesbetweenentryandaterrorarrestwas11daysinthecaseofAlgerian-bornBachirHadjadi,arepeatdrugtraffickingoffenderandterrorismsuspectwhowasexpelledfromBelgiumonlytoreturnseveraltimes.AfterafinaldeportationinMay2017,HadjadireturnedthatSeptemberonamigrantboatfromAlgeriatoCagliari,Italy.AtipfromhisestrangedwifethatHadjadiplannedtoconductanattackuponhisreturnledpolicetofollowHadjadi’sownbrazenFacebookpostingsofhistravelprogressuntilhisarrestin11days.61

Inaseparatecaseofapparentfortune,authoritieswereabletoarrestSyrianrefugeeLeethAbdalhameedwithintwoweeksofhisarrival.Germananti-terrorismpolicearrestedAbdalhameedforparticipatingwithISISinSyriaasamid-levelcom-manderwhosmuggledmoney,medicine,andammunitionbetweenTurkeyandthegroupinSyria.Whilenospecificplotwasinprogressinvolvinghim,Abdalhameedinitiallyregisteredandappliedforasylumunderafalsenameandhadavoidedprovidinghisfingerprints,butwasarrestedafterafellowrefugeeinformedonhispastandhisfingerprintsmatchedintel-ligenceinformation.62

AquestionthatnaturallyarisesiswhethermigrantsradicalizedbeforeorafterenteringEuropeandgaininglegalresidency,theimplicationbeingwhetherauthoritiesmighthavebeenabletodetectextremistsandplotsundernormalorstreamlinedasylumadjudicationprocesses.Noclearpatterninformsthisquestion,anddataisinsufficient;itappearsthatsomeradical-izedafterarrivalanddidnotinitiallyenterwithanyspecificplantocauseharm.AJune2018HeritageFoundationstudyofmigrantasylumseekerswhocommittedterroroffensesinEuropefound12of32terrorismcasesinvolvedthosewho“appearedtohavebeguntoimmersethemselvesinviolentIslamistideologyoncetheywereinEurope.”63Another10involvedthose“entirelyradicalizedabroad”.

InJuly2016,attheheightofmigrant-terrorattacks,theEUproposednewasylumprocessingrulesthatnolongermentionedthesix-monthwaitingperiodandreplaceditwith“shortbutreasonabletimelimits”.64

Though a fractional percentage of total irregular migration to Europe, the 104 migrant-terrorists caused enduring, out-sized impacts on European state affairs beyond individual casualties. Small numbers of terrorists who exploit irregular migrant flows, therefore, should be viewed as high-consequence threats warranting commensurate public investment and attention in border security.Someobservershaveequatedlownumbersofterroristsandcasualtiestolowthreatlevelstoindividualcitizens,meaningdirectbodilyharm,asanargumentforreducedprioritizationofIslamistextremismandsecurityinvestment.65ButproperlyassessingterrorismriskrequiresthatanalystsaccountforeffectsbeyondwhattheUnitedNationsOfficeonDrugsandCrimeidentifiesasthe“traumaofindividualvictims”;secondaryandthirdordersofvictimizationincludeothercollectiveharmstosocieties,suchasimpactsontrade,investment,andcounterterrorismthatarecentraltoproperlyassessingterrorismthreat

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andrisk.66ARandstudycommissionedbytheEuropeanParliamentonthebroaderconsequencesofEuropeanterrorismsimilarlynotedthatterrorismleadstosignificanteconomiceffects,thatEuropeanbusinesses,cities,andnationslost€90bil-lion(anacknowledgedunderestimation)from2013to2016duetoterrorism.67

“Despitetheinfrequentnatureofterroristattacks”, theRandreportnoted,“therangeof impactsonEUcitizensremainssignificant.”

NoassessmentofthecostsandconsequencesassociatedwithEuropeanterrorattacksspecificallyattributabletomigrant-terrorismduring2014-2018couldbefound,likelybecausequantifyingcasesofmigrant-terroristincidentsisanongoingaffair.However,ifjudgedbythemostobviousimpactsonnationaltreasuries,economicdisruptions,electoraloutcomes,andforcedpolicygenerationinEuropetodate,the104migrant-terroristsprovideargumentthatevensmallterrorismnumbersportendgreatercostsandthereforethreatstotargetedsocieties.Byextension,thewiderimpactsofwhatoccurredinEuropewarrantinvestmentinsecuritypolicytocontrolemigrationfromMuslim-majoritynations.

ImpactsonEuropeansocietiesfromthese104migrant-terroristsincluded:

• Electoraloutcomesthatsawthedisempowermentoflong-establishedpoliticalpartiesandincreasedempowermentofpartiesthatcampaignedtoreducemigrationanditsassociatedterrorism.

• Acceleratingacostly,three-monthalliedmilitaryoffensiveinvolvingU.S.airpowerandgroundtroopstoclosetheso-called“ManbijGap”sectionoftheSyria-Turkeyborder,afterdisclosuresthatmigrant-terroristsusedittoexitSyriafortheirattacksinEurope.

• Thefirstbreakdownofthe1995SchengenZonetreaty—thefree,borderlessmovementofpeopleandtradeamong26states.

• TheinitialriseofpublicsentimentandcallsfortheUKtoexittheEuropeanUnion(“Brexit”)asaprimarymeanstoblockmigrant-terroristsinmainlandEuropefromexploitingopenbordersprovisionstoattackintheislands.

• Concessionsononce-vauntedcivillibertiesprotectionsinexchangeforimprovedcounterterrorismoperationsandnationalpoliciesthatwouldreduceterrorismrisksfromthemigrationinflow.

• Newcounter-migrationpoliciesinstigatedtostoptheattacksbyreducingthevolumeofmigrantsenteringtheEUthatcarriedplottersandthosepredisposedtoconductingattacks.

Electoral Consequences

WholenationsrepresentingtensofmillionsofEuropeanschangedpoliticalcourseasaresultofterrorattacksthatkilled170people.PartiesthatcampaignedaboutIslamistterrorismandimmigrationgainedhistoricgroundamongmainstreamvot-ers,beyondfringenativistgroups.

Explanationcanbefoundinacontentanalysisofhundredsofmediareportsandpollingdata.Theseshowedthatpublicclamorforelectedleaderstoactcoincidedwithsustainedmediacoverageofeachattackbutalsooffuneralvigils,subsequentanti-terrorismraids,gunbattlesinpublicstreets,ongoingtrials,attackanniversaries,andpolicydebatesaboutterrorismasassociatedwiththemigration.Citizenssawmajorcitiestransformedwithsecuritybarricadesandheavilyarmedsoldiersandanti-terrorismpolice.Millionslivedunderextendedcivilemergencydeclarations.

Whileanti-immigrationsentimentwasoftensimplisticallyattributedmerelytonationalistxenophobiaandracialbias,poll-ingmorepersuasivelyestablishesthatterroristactsrapidlyturnedbroadermainstreampublicopinionagainstmigrationfromMuslim-majoritycountries.

AJuly2016Pewpoll,forinstance,showedthatmorethan60percentofEuropeansopposedthemigrationbecauseitwasassociatedwith terrorattacksandanescalated threat.68AEuropeanCommissionpoll found thatEuropeansviewed im-migrationandterrorismastheprimarychallengesfacingEurope,aheadevenofeconomicissues.69Pewpollingfor2018,conductedaftermanynewattacksandplots,showedthatmajoritiesinEurope(58percentmedian)believedfewerornoim-

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migrantsshouldenter.70Pollingin2019of14EUstatesshowedthatcitizensidentifiedIslamicradicalismasthesinglebiggestthreattothefutureofEurope,thoughnotimmigrationitself,butalsothateverymemberstatestillwantedbetterprotectionofEurope’sborders.71AGothenburgUniversitypollofSwedishvoters,conductedafterhigh-profileattacksandpoliceraidsinthecountry,showed52percentfavoredtakingfewerrefugeesintothecountry,upfrom40percenttwoyearsearlier.72

Electionsin2017,2018,and2019inalmosteveryEuropeancountryreflectedwidespreadperceptionsthatactsofterrorismbyrecentlyarrivedasylumseekerswerelinkedtotheimmigrationwavethatbroughtthemintothebloc.Theperceptionaboutimmigration,whichhadnotpreviouslyregisteredasasignificantconcern,wasadrivingfactor,albeitamongothers,fortransformativeelectionoutcomesthatincluded,amongmanyotherexamples:

• Sweden’s2018nationalelectionsawavotingsurgefortheSwedenDemocrats,whichcampaignedagainstimmigra-tionandtheterrorismitimported.Ahungparliamentemerged,withcenter-rightandcenter-leftblocksthathaddominatedSwedishpoliticsfordecadesforcedtoincludetheSwedenDemocratsintheirrulingcoalition.Bycon-trast,thecountry’sbiggesttraditionalistpoliticalparty,theSocialDemocrats,suffereditsworstelectionresultssince1911.73

• Finland’sspring2019nationalelectionsloggedunprecedentedgainsfortheconservativeFinnsPartyandcenter-rightNationalCoalitionPartyaftercampaignsthatemphasizedslowingimmigrationandterrorism.TheFinnsPartyincreaseditsseatcountinparliamentfrom17to39andemergedasthesecondmostpowerfulpartyinthecountryforthefirsttimeinmemory.74TheNationalCoalitionPartyalsojoinedtherulingcoalition.

• InNorway,supportforthecenter-left,pro-immigrationLaborPartyfelltohistoriclowswhilevotersendorsedtheanti-immigrationagendaofthenationalistProgressPartytotheextentthatitmaintaineditsplaceinacoalitiongovernmentasthethird-largestpartyonacampaignemphasizingimmigrationissues.75

• Denmark’scenter-leftDanishSocialDemocratsupendedtwodecadesofstatusquointheJune2019nationalelec-tionandwonupsetvictoriesbasedprimarilyonitshard-linestanceagainstimmigrationandpushingtoughpoliciesonasylumseekers,whichattractedvotersfromright-wingpartiesitdefeated.76

• Italy’s2018nationalelectionsbroughttwoanti-establishmentpartiestopowerinanupset,theFiveStarMovementand theLeagueparty.Bothwonpowerafteranelectioncampaigndominatedbypromises todrastically reduceillegal immigrationandtoconductmassdeportations,whichinstalledPrimeMinisterMatteoSalviniasheadofgovernment.77

A Military Campaign

TheMarch2016suicideattacksontheBrusselsairportsandtwootherlocations—byoperativesdeployedintowarrefugeeflows—arecreditedwithacceleratingaU.S.-backedmilitarycampaigntoclosea60-milesectionoftheSyria-TurkeyborderknownastheManbijGap,accordingtoreportingbytheWall Street Journal.78Thenewspaperreportedthatintheweekslead-inguptotheattack,“WesternofficialsexpressedincreasingalarmaboutthecontinuedflowofIslamicStateextremistsacrossthis60-milestretchoftheTurkey-Syriaborder.”U.S.officials,itsaid,wereconcernedbecauseseveraloftheNovember2015Parisattackershadtraveledoutofthedisputedareaand“slippedintothemigranttrailinTurkey.”OneU.S.militaryofficialtoldthenewspaperthatuntiltheManbijcorridorwasclosed,therewouldbenowayto“cutofftheforeignfightersanditwillbeverydifficulttostopthemfromhidingamongthemigrants.”

TheManbijOffensivebeganonMay31,2016,toretakethetownandhighwayovertheTurkishbordertodenyISISopera-tivesfurtheraccesstothegap.ThefightinginvolvedU.S.airstrikesinsupportofseveralthousandSyrianDemocraticForces(SDF)andsmallnumbersofU.S.specialforces.79Theoffensiveendedafterthreemonths,when200survivingISISfighters,usinghostages,negotiatedsafepassageoutofManbij.80Anaccountingofthecostofmunitionsexpendedduringtheoffen-sivecouldnotbefound.However,mediareportsdescribedsomeofthehighestciviliancasualtiesofthewarfromwesternairstrikesthere,anditshouldbeassumedthatfightersonallsidesoftheconflictsuffereddeathsandinjuries.81

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Breakdown of Historic Schengen Area Free-Movement Agreement

Thecentralprovisionofthe1995Schengenareaofvisa-freetravelacross26countries,hailedasaneconomicboontointra-Europeantrade,brokedownunderpublicpressuretostopmigrant-terroristsfromfreelyrangingamongcountriesdevelop-ingplots,liketheParisandBrusselsterrorists.82HungaryandAustriawerethefirsttoeffectivelyleavetheSchengenAreawhentheybuiltwallsalongtheirborders.83

Followingthe2016Brusselsattacks,sixotherSchengenareacountriescitedan“exceptionalcircumstances”,last-resortclausetore-implementinternalborderchecksonatemporarybasisofsixmonths,subjecttorenewals,onpassports,visas,andluggageaftertheattacks.84BelgiumreinstatedbordercontrolswithFrance.GermanyreinstatedcontrolsatitsborderswithAustria,whichdidthesameatitslandborderswithHungaryandSlovenia.SwedenreinstitutedcontrolsatharborsinthePoliceRegionSouthandWestandattheOresundbridge;DenmarkputrestrictionsonitsportswithferryconnectionstoGermanyandatitslandborderwithGermany.NorwayreinstatedcontrolsatitsportswithferryconnectionstoDenmark,Germany,andSweden.85

By2019,thosecountrieshadmaintainedtheirbordercontrolswithsix-monthrenewals,citingcausessuchas“severethreattopublicorder”,“migrationandsecuritypolicy”,and“seriousthreattopublicpolicyandinternalsecurity”.86Followingtwoterrorattacksin2018,forinstance,Francereneweditsbordercontrols,citing“terroristthreatsand[the]situationattheexternalborders”.87

Brexit

TheParisandBrusselsterrorattacksbyoperativeswhotraveledamongmigrantssparkedthefirstmomentumfortheUKtoexitthe28-memberEUitjoinedin1973andsetaJune2016referendumonthematter,whichvotersnarrowlypassed.ThethreatofmigrantterrorismspreadingtotheUKledtoarancorous10-weeknationalcampaignthatcametobeknownas“BrexitandhasbeendescribedasthemostsignificanteventinEuropesincethe1989falloftheBerlinwall.”88

TheNovember2015attacksonParisandtheattacksonBrusselsfourmonthslatersetinmotionBrexit’sfar-reachingcon-sequences.Intheyearssincetheunsettledoutcome,Brexitisnowattributedtocostlyongoingpoliticaldivisionsoveritsimplementation,theresignationofPrimeMinisterDavidCameron,anelectionthatupendedUKelectoralpowerbalancesandreducedthepowerofPrimeMinisterTheresaMay,andimplementationdelays.AlthoughtheUKwasnotpartoftheSchengenareafree-movementtreaty,thenewhostilitycenteredonEUrulespermittingfreemovementoflaborintotheUKandalsothatEUmemberssuchasGermanywerepressuringothermemberstatestoacceptlargersharesofmigrantsfromMuslim-majoritycountrieswhocouldpotentiallycommitterroristacts.89

Extensivesocialscienceresearchsincethereferendumshowsthatpublichostilitytowardimmigrationand“anxietyoveritsperceivedeffects”wassharpenedbythearrivalofapan-Europeanrefugeecrisisfrom2015onwardandwasamajorpredictorofsupportfortheinitialUKpushtoleavetheEU.90TheBrusselsattacksthefollowingmonthandsubsequentgunbattlesandterrorattacksinvolvingmigrants,quicklybuiltpublicconsensustosetanationalreferendumforJune2016,threemonthsaftertheBrusselsattacksandsevenmonthsaftertheParisattacks.

Tobesure,otherconcernspredatingtheParisandBrusselsattacksdroveBrexit,suchasacurrencycrisis,sovereigntyissues,economicrecessions,andanti-establishmentsentiment.91Butaftertheattacksandwitheachnewone,Brexitproponentsconsistentlymadetheso-called“securitydividend”acenterpieceargumentthroughoutthereferendumcampaign.92EvenaslateasApril2018,aCenterforSocialInvestigationpollshowedthatregainingcontroloverEUimmigrationwasthetopconcernofUKcitizenswhovotedtoleave.93

Analysis: Threat Implications for the United StatesTheriskofterrorist-migrantinfiltrationthroughtheU.S.southernborderprobablyremainsmoremoderatethanforEurope,butlikelyincreasedafterthe2015Parisattacks,forthreereasons:

1. TerroristorganizationssuchasISISwouldbefullyawarethatinfiltrationoverEuropeanbordersrepeatedlysucceededasaninnovativetacticthatisreplicableattheU.S.borderanddesired.

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2. SmugglingnetworksthattransportmigrantsfromthesameorigincountriestoLatinAmericaandtheU.S.borderarewellestablishedandaccessibleevenunder lawenforcementpressureandathigherexpense,providingtravelcapabilityforeitherdeployedoperativesorsympathizers.

3. TerroristvettinganddetectionprocessesattheU.S.borderandalongtheLatinAmericaapproachroutes,thoughmoreeffectivethanwereEurope’s,areflawedandremainvulnerabletoeasydefeat.

TobetterunderstandwhythethreatofterroristinfiltrationovertheU.S.bordermighthaveincreased,somerisk-mitigatingdifferencesbetweenterroristmigrationtoEurope’sexternalbordersandtotheU.S.southernborderwarrantacknowledgementanddiscussion.Threekeydifferencesinvolve:thevolumeofmigrationflowsfromMuslim-majoritycountries,thesizeandcomplexityofgeographiesthatmustbepoliced,andrelativecapabilitiesonbothsidesoftheAtlantictoscreenentrantsforsuspectedterrorism.

A Deterring Distance and Expense

Europe’s baseline asylum, security vetting, and refugee systems collapsedunder the onslaught of refugees andmigrantswhooftenarrivedwithoutidentitydocuments,enablingdozensofsuccessfulclandestinejihadistentries.Butevenpriortothecrisis,Europehadnotorienteditscollectiveattentiontowardillegalimmigrationascounterterrorismbecauseborderinfiltrationhadnotemergedasaterror-traveltactic.Inshort,ithadnothappenedyet.Incontrast,federallegislationafter9/11didrequiretheUnitedStateshomelandsecurityenterprisetopreemptivelyrecognizeborderinfiltrationasavulnerabilityandtoorientsomeprogramstoattenuateit.94

Thedegreeofeffectivenessmaywellhavehingedonthatdifferenceinsecuritypreparednessandinmigrationflowvolumes.

Whereasmostofthe2.5millionmigrantswhoenteredEuropeduringthecrisishailedfromcountriesoftheMiddleEast,Africa,andSouthAsia,onlyanestimated3,000to4,000migrantsfromthesameregionsannuallyreachtheU.S.southernborder.95Forexample,theDepartmentofHomelandSecuritystatedthat in2018afractional3,000ofthe467,000illegalimmigrantsapprehendedatthesouthernborderwerecategorizedingovernmentparlanceas“specialinterestaliens”(SIAs)basedoncitizenshipincountrieswhereterroristgroupsoperate.96

HighSIAmigrationfromMuslim-majoritycountriestoanunpreparedEuroperesultedinterrorattackswhilelowmigrationtoamorepreparedUnitedStateshasresultedinnoterrorattacksonU.S.soiltodate.

OnereasonforlowervolumesofSIAmigrantsattheU.S.borderisthatdistancestoreachitarefargreaterandmorecostprohibitivethanforthemtoreachEuropeanentrypointsatGreece,Italy,Spain,andHungary.TransportationandsmugglingfeestostagingpointsinTurkey,Libya,andMorocco,byboatoverthreemainMediterraneanSearoutes,andtheninternallyinsideEuropewererelativelyaffordabletothemasses.97

AjourneytoEuropemightaveragelessthan$5,000whileonetotheU.S.bordercancosttensofthousandsofdollarsmore.Forinstance,atypicaljourneyfromdistantWestAfricatoEuropewouldbepricedinthe$2,000-$3000range.98Coststocross theMediterraneanfromLibya,Morocco,orTurkeytoaEuropeanbordermighthaveaddedanadditional$900to$4,000during2015.99

Bycontrast,migrants traveling to theU.S. southernborder requireair travel to reachLatinAmericaand thecostofairtravelistheleastofit.Usingpassengerflightrequiresotherexpensivesmugglerservicessuchasobtainingidentityandvisadocumentstobothexitandenterairportcustomsinspections.Guides,lodging,andotherformsoftransportationalsoarenecessarytotraverseSouthAmerica,CentralAmerica,andMexico.Whereas,forinstance,anAfghanorPakistanimigrantmightpayseveralthousanddollarstoreachTurkeyandthenperhaps$1,000boatpassagefaretoGreece,thesamemigrantsmighthavetopayfrom$20,000toasmuchas$60,000toreachtheU.S.border.100

Perhapsmore thananyother factor,highcostsand identityandvisadocuments shouldpreventmigration fromspecialinterestmigrant countries fromever spiking toEuropeanproportions thatoverwhelm systems enough to increase risk.However,massmigrationwavesfromothercountriessuchasHonduras,ElSalvador,andGuatemalain2018and2019cananddiddegradeterrorist-vettingcapabilities.

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Common SIA Departures from Middle East, Africa and South Asia and Initial Landings in the Western Hemisphere

Source: MapgraphicbyJoeStafford.Usedwithpermission.RoutesderivedfromU.S.courtprosecutionsandopen-sourcereports

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Common SIA Travel Routes into the United States via Latin America

Source: MapgraphicbyJoeStafford.Usedwithpermission.

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American Preparedness vs. European Union Preparedness

IfseveralthousandspecialinterestaliensdoreachtheU.S.bordereveryyear,aquestionworthansweringiswhethertheyarebettermanagedforcounterterrorismsecuritythanwerethosethatreachedEurope.TheanswerisaqualifiedaffirmativethatAmericanmanagementoflowermigrationvolumesreducedtheriskofterrorattack,thoughpersistingvulnerabilitieswillbedescribed.LikeEuropedidpriorto2014,U.S.andDHSstrategyrecognizedtheneedfora“transnational”approachtocounterterrorismwith immigrationcontrol,meaningborder security agencies extended their activitiesbeyondphysical frontiers toothercontinents.101 But prior to thefirst attacks in 2015, the 28European signatorynations of the SchengenArea (22 of theEuropeanUnion)hadnotadvancedasfarinthisashadtheAmericans,whobeganpushingbordersecurityoutwardshortlyafter9/11.Europeancountriesdidnothaveinteroperableintelligencedatabasesorcommonterrorismwatchlists,systemstocheckasylumapplicantsagainstcommonoralliedterroristdatabases,ormechanismstosharederogatoryinformationamongagenciesandcountriesinatimelymanner.102

With 27,000miles of external sea border and 5,500miles of landborder to secure, EU countries also faced far greaterlogisticalchallenges thandid theUnitedStateswith its singularnorthwardcorridorapproaches throughLatinAmerica.Onlyin2014,asvariousArabSpringrebellionspropelled276,000migrantsfromSyria,Afghanistan,Somalia,andEritrea,a155percentincreasefromtheprioryear,didSchengencountiesdeployagenciesandprogramsabroadtocollectintelligenceabouthumansmugglingnetworks.103WhileEUlawenforcementagenciessuchasFrontexandEuropoldidconductcounter-smugglingenforcementoperationspriortothecrisis,theseeffortsclearlydidlittletostemthecomingtideandwerequicklyoverwhelmed.

Bycontrast, thepost-9/11UnitedStatesdevelopedcapabilities to sharecounterterrorism intelligence, tocheckmigrantsagainstterroristdatabasematches,andtodismantlespecialinterestmigrantsmugglingoperationsabroad.104Thiscounter-smugglingtaskwasassignedtoU.S. ImmigrationandCustomsEnforcement’sHomelandSecurityInvestigationsbranch,whichdeployedhundredsofagentstodozensoftransitcountriesintheyearsafter9/11.105

TheUnited States trained and equipped transit countries like Panama andCosta Rica to collect biometrics to identifymigrantspassingthroughfromallovertheworld.106

Meanwhile,atthephysicalborder,startingin2004,U.S.CustomsandBorderProtectionimplementedprotocolstoscreenSIAsindetention,includingin-personFBIandDHSthreatassessmentinterviews,terrorismdatabasechecks,biometricscollection,andchecksofintelligencerepositories.107After9/11,FBIandDHSagentsstationedinMexicoconductedthreatassessmentinterviewsinsideMexicandetentioncenters.108

UnlikeinEurope,effortssuchasthisproducedintelligencethatfueledtheICEcounter-smugglinginvestigations,generatednew intelligence on travelers, and also identifiedpotentially dangerousmigrant-terrorists both en route and at theU.S.border.

American Success in Infiltration Detection and Attack Prevention?IntheEuropeantheater,thedearthofgovernmentpreparednessforterroristborderinfiltrationsledtohighcasualtiesandsevere,wide-rangingnegativesocietalimpacts.Incontrast,nomigrantwhocrossedtheU.S.southernborderhadconductedaterrorattackafterSeptember2001exceptforoneSomaliwhocrossedtheMexico-Californiaborderin2011andwentontoallegedlycommita2017vehicle-rammingattackwhilecarryinganISISflaginEdmonton,Alberta,Canada.109

Itwould,however,bealogicfallacytocitetheabsenceofaterrorattackorfewnumbersofterroristsuspectinterdictionsasevidenceofaverylowornothreat.

Theabsenceofborder-breachingattackssuchasthosethatoccurredinEuropecanbepartlyattributedtoAmericaneffortsthathaveconsistentlydetectedandapprehendedintelligence-flaggedterroristsuspectsattheborderorenroutetoit,perhaps

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preventingsomefromcommittingtheoutsizedsocietalharmsoftheirEuropeanpredecessors.Obviously,preventedterrorattacksandimpactsthatnevertookplacecannotbeconfirmedandtalliedwithmuchcertitude.ButintheAmericantheater,screening at theborder and intact intelligence-sharingwith transit nation governments almost certainly took identifiedprospectivemigrant-terroristsofflinebeforetheycouldact.Forexample,between2012and2017,authoritiesinvolvedinscreeningandinvestigativeactivitiesreportedlyidentifiedmorethan100SIAsonU.S.terrorismwatchlists—atleast20peryear—apprehendedattheborderorenroutethroughLatinAmerica.110Peopleareenteredonwatchlistsiftheybecomeinvestigativesuspectsinplotsorattacks,aredirectlyorindirectlyinvolvedwithterroristorganizations,oraredangerousindividuals.Presenceonthewatchlistsisastrongindicatorofhigherrisktopublicsafety.Itisworthrememberingthatamere19al-QaedahijackersattackinginNewYorkandWashington,D.C.,on9/11defeatedavarietyofimmigrationsystemsandsettheUnitedStatesonnearlytwodecadesofwarsabroad.

U.S.-boundSIAterrorsuspectscontinuedtobeapprehendedfrom2017to2019,includingfoursuspectedISISoperativesinNicaragua,anal-ShabaabsuspectandseveralterrorsuspectsinCostaRica,andsixPakistanialQaedasuspectsinPanama.111Since9/11,atleast15namedborder-crossingterrorsuspectsbecamepubliclyvisibleduetoterrorism-relatedprosecutionsinU.S.courtsorleakedintelligencereportingabouttheirapprehensionsordeportations,includingseveralSomaliswhoseterrorisminvolvementswereextensivelydocumented.112Counter-smugglinginvestigationsinrecentyearsinLatinAmericaidentifiednumerousterror-watch-listedmigrantsfromSomalia,Afghanistan,Yemen,Pakistan,andsomefromunnamedcountries.113

Noneoftheseapprehendedmigrantswouldhavebeenfreetoconductattacks,iftheywereplanningany,sincetheywereapprehended, prosecutedon various charges, imprisoned, or deported.These interdictions by themselves, andprobablymanymorepubliclyunknownones,profoundlydemonstrate thepresenceofproblematicSIAs,baseline risk,and threatdespitethelackofsuccessfulattackssinceSeptember2001.

Thereareotherreasonswhythatsteady-stateriskandthreatpersistdespiteinterdictionsuccessessofar.

Holes in the Net Significantvulnerability toborder infiltrationpersistseventhoughsomethreatreductioncanbeattributedtoAmericancounter-smugglingabroad,intelligencesharing,andsecurityscreeningathome.Publicreportingindicatesineffectivenessofeffort,inconsistentapplication,discordantinter-agencycoordination,andahighlydysfunctionalasylumsystem.DeterminedterroristtravelersarrivingwithfalseornoidentitydocumentsandanunverifiableasylumpersecutionstorycaneasilysliptheAmericannet.Andnotalltravelerswithterrorismhistoryhavebeenenteredintoanintelligencedatabase.

Ina2016memo,asmigrant-involvedterrorattacksweremountinginEurope,then-DHSSecretaryJehJohnsonordered10topagencychiefstoaddressaperceivedlackofcoordinatedemphasisonSIAs“whoarepotentialnationalsecuritythreatstoourhomeland.”114Johnsondirectedhischiefstoassess“shortfalls,limitingfactors,andpotentialareasforimprovement”inthecountry’seffortanddraftacoordinatedplantosystematicallyreducethenationalsecuritythreathesawfromthismigration.Asof2018,however,theJohnsoninitiativewasnolongeractiveasDHSagencieswenttheirseparateways.115

Indeed, a variety of government accountability reports indicate inconsistent or uncoordinated attention to the problemset and littleoversightby thevarious responsibleagenciesandCongress toassess theeffort and remedy shortfalls.One2010CongressionalResearchServicereportnotedthat,becausemuchoftheexternalbordersecurityoperationsinvolvingintelligenceserviceswasclassified,“thereisnowaytoaccountforthe...contribution”ofU.S.agenciesworkingonillegalmigrationabroad.116

ICE’sspecialinterestaliensmugglingoperationsinLatinAmericaachievedsomedisruptionsuccessintheyearsafter9/11,undoubtedlyreducingflownumbersatleasttemporarilyandhelpingtoidentifysometerroristsuspects.117Forinstance,ICE-HSIin2018and2019arrestedanAfghansmugglerinNewJerseyandaJordaniansmugglerinMexico;Iranian,Pakistani,Algerian,andatleasttwoSomalismugglersinBrazil;andtwoBangladeshismugglersinMexico.118Butone2012GovernmentAccountabilityOffice(GAO)reportnotedthatmorethan80percentofICE-HSIeffortsabroadhadbeendivertedtodrug

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cases,underliningmissedopportunitiestoreducethenumberofmigrantsanddetectthreateningones.119Reportslikethis,alongwitharelativelyconsistentannualflowrateof3,000to4,000specialinterestmigrantapprehensionsatthesouthernborderannuallysinceSeptember2001,indicatethattheICEeffortisunder-resourcedandonlyepisodicallydisruptsflow.

Meanwhile,atthephysicalborderinU.S.detentioncenters,FBIandDHSagentsreportedlyhavenotbeenconductingthreat-assessment interviewsofallapprehendedSIAsbefore theybondout to freedominthecountry’s interior,onbackloggedasylumclaims,conditionsthatenabledEurope’sterrorattacks.120In2011,theFBIceaseduniversalinterviewstoconcentrateonselecthigh-prioritySIAswhileICEintelligenceofficerswerelargelyunabletoreach100-percentinterviewgoalsbeforedetaineesbondedoutwithoutenhancedvetting.121InMexico,too,FBIandDHShavelongbeenpermittedtointerviewSIAsinMexicanfacilities,startingafewyearsafter9/11.122Butlimitedstaffingallowednomorethanafewinterviewsatatime,leavingmosttocontinueontotheAmericanborderunscreened.123

Inanycase,theFBIandDHSsystemsofassessingterrorismconnectionsarefarfromfoolproof.124Acontributingfactoristhatmigrantsoftenshowupwithnoidentificationorhailfromcountriesthatmaintainnodatabasesandhaven’tworkedwithAmerican intelligenceor lawenforcement fordecades, suchasSyria,Somalia,Libyaandanumberofotherorigincountries.125SaidoneFBIagentofthesecircumstances:“Youinterviewthem,runeverydatabasepossible,fingerprints,watchlists,checktheirstories....Couldwebefooled?Ofcourse.”126

A2012GAOinvestigationoftheBorderPatrol,despiteaprioritystrategicplanrequirementthatitdeterandscreenSIAs,foundthatagencywasdoinglittleanddidnotregardtheissueasitsproblem.127ThereportfoundthathundredsofsuchmigrantswereonlygettingcaughtatinteriorBorderPatrolhighwaycheckpoints,includingseveralontheU.S.terrorwatchlist.

Perhapsmostpertinent,theU.S.asylumsystemapparentlyhasprovidednomoreofascreeningopportunitythandidtheEuropeanasylumsystemafter ithadcompletelybrokendown, andprovides at least asmuch timeasmigrant-terroristsenjoyedinEurope.PerpetualbacklogsintheintactU.S.asylumprocesswerefarlongerthanwerebacklogsinEuropewhenitwasnearlydefunct.IntheUnitedStates,thebackloghadgrowntomorethan800,000byJanuary2019,withtheaveragewait timebeing 578days, or about 19months.128Thebacklog exceededonemillion by September 2019.129The lengthyadjudicationperiodmatters tocounter-terrorism in theUnitedStates, justas itdid inEurope,becauseSIAs tend tofileasylumclaimsandbondouttoliveandwork—orplot.

Furthermore,asylumfraudisrampantandrarelydetected,investigated,orprosecuted,accordingtoGAOreportingoverthelastdecade.Thereportingshowsanabsenceoffrauddetectiontrainingorcapability,highratesofundetectedfraud,andlittleinclinationamongagenciestoinvestigateorprosecute.130A2015GAOreportonthesystem’scontinuingvulnerabilitytofraudfound,inpart,thatresponsibleinvestigativeagenciesinallfieldofficeswillnotinvestigateasylumfraudbecauseU.S.Attorneysrejectmostreferralsandinfrequently,ifever,prosecuteasylumfraud.131

NumerousU.S. smuggler prosecutions showed that special interestmigrant smugglers actively exploited asylum systemflaws,oftenbycoachingclientstoclaimfalsepersecutionstoriesortoomitdisqualifyingpersonalhistoryininterviewswithAmericanadjudicatorsandinimmigrationcourt.132Infact,smugglersembroideredasylumfraudintotheirbusinessmodels.Theasylumsystemwas regardedas sovulnerable to terrorist infiltration thatDHS’s2008-2013 threat assessmentnotedtheagency’s“highestlevelofconcern”wasthat“terroristswillattempttodefeatbordersecuritymeasureswiththegoalofinsertingoperativesandestablishingsupportnetworksintheUnitedStates”byposingas“refugeesorasylumseekers...fromcountriesofspecialinterestforterrorism.”133

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ConclusionTheauthorsofthe2018WhiteHouseCounterterrorismStrategymaynothavehadthebenefitofabetterscopeofterroristborderinfiltrationinEuropein2018,butthisdevelopingpictureofwhathappeneddemonstratestheywereprescientinnot-ingthatsomethingnewandsignificanthadhappenedwithpotentialimplicationsforU.S.bordersecurity.Longerdistances,highercosts,andAmericansecurityandcounterterrorismintelligencecapabilitieslikelyhavedeterredsomemigrant-ter-roristsfromriskingthejourneyand,alongwithapprehensionsofterrorsuspects,maypartlyexplaintheabsenceofattackstodate.However,expense,distance,andthechancesofdiscoverywouldnotlikelydissuadedeterminedterroristswellawarethattheirco-religionistshavesucceededinEurope.Terroristinfiltratorsneverenteredintoanintelligencedatabase,orideo-loguespronetobeinfluencedbyextremistonlineincitement,arelikelytodefeatthelimitedAmericansecuritycordons,too.ISIS,thegroupmostoftenresponsibleforsendingsuicidebombersintoEuropeposingasmigratingrefugees,retainedvastcashresourceswellafteritsmilitarydefeatinIraqandSyria,andthereforethecapabilitytopayhighersmugglingfees.134WellawareofitsinfiltrationfeatsinEurope,ISISreportedlyhadplanstorepeatthemattheAmericanborderin2016,whenitsleadershipsoughttoarrangethesmugglingofateamofTrinidadianforeignfightersfromSyriaovertheU.S.border.135

Thelargelyundisturbedsmugglingnetworksthatwouldcarrydetermined,resourcedfoesalongwith3,000to4,000SIAseachyearthereforemuststillberegardedasaheightenedthreat,solongasterroristsareawareoftheoptionandsolongasU.S.effortsremainuncoordinated,under-resourced,andneglected.136ThearrivalofevensmallnumbersofterrorsuspectsatorenroutetotheAmericanborderreinforceswhatwaslearnedinEurope:thatonlyarelativefewsuccesseswillhaveoutsizedimpactsthroughoutAmericansociety.

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End Notes1“EuropeanUnionTerrorismSituationandTrendReport2017”,Interpol,2017,p.14.

2NicholasRasmussen,“TerroristsandtheSouthernBorder:MythandReality”,JustSecurity,January8,2019;JoshFeldman, “JeffFlakeRespondstoTrump’s‘UnknownMiddleEasterners’Tweet:‘ACanardandaFearTactic’”,Mediaite,October22,2018;FrancoOrdonez,“Trumpofficialsexaggerateterroristthreatonthesouthernborderintensebriefing”,The Washington Post,January4,2019;CalvinWoodward,“Trump’smythicalterroristtidefromMexico”,AssociatedPress,January8,2019.

3“PresidentBushReleasesNationalStrategyforCombattingTerrorism”,February14,2003.

4“NationalStrategyforCounterterrorismoftheUnitedStatesofAmerica”,TheWhiteHouse,October2018,p.8.

5Ibid.,p.8.

6“RiskAnalysisfor2018”,Frontex,February2018,p.8.

7JuliaGelatt,“SchengenandthefreemovementofpeopleacrossEurope”,MigrationPolicyInstitute,October1,2005;“RolesandResponsibilities”,Frontexwebsite,undated.

8“RiskAnalysisfor2018”,Frontex,February2018,p.8.

9StacyMeichtryandJoshuaRobinson,“ParisAttacksPlotHatchedinPlainSight”,The Wall Street Journal,November24,2015;“ParisStadiumAttackerEnteredEuropeViaGreece”,The Wall Street Journal,November16,2015;DavidGauthier-Villars,“ParisAttacksShowCracksinFrance’sCounterterrorismEffort”,The Wall Street Journal,November23,2015.

10“NationalStrategyforCounterterrorismoftheUnitedStatesofAmerica”,TheWhiteHouse,October2018,p.15.

11“EuropeanUnionTerrorismSituationandTrendReport2017”,EuropeanUnionAgencyforLawEnforcementCooperation,2017,pp.6,12,14;DionNissenbaumandJulianE.Barnes, “Brusselsattacksfuelpushtocloseoffmilitants’highway”,The Wall Street Journal,March23,2016;AlanYuhas, “NATOcommander:ISISspreadinglikeacanceramongrefugees,maskingthemovementofterrorists”,The Guardian,March1,2016;JohnStevens, “HowtheParisbombersneakedintoEurope:TerroristposingasarefugeewasarrestedandfingerprintedinGreece—thengiventravelpapersandsentonhiswaytocarryoutsuicidebombinginFrance”, Daily Mail(UK),November16,2015;IsabelHunter, “Masterbomb-makerwhoposedasmigrantandattackedParislastyearisnowchiefsuspectinBelgianatrocityaspoliceswooponhomedistrict”, Daily Mail,(UK),March22,2016.

12SamMullins,Jihadist Infiltration of Migrant Flows to Europe: Perpetrators, Modus Operandi and Policy Implications,London:PalgraveMacmillan,Febraury26,2019;RobinSimcox,“TheAsylum-TerrorNexus:HowEuropeShouldRespond”,HeritageFoundation,June18,2018;“RiskAnalysisfor2018”,Frontex,February2018,p.8.

13Alldatacollectedforstudyandanalysis,terroristsandsuspectskilledandarrestedinEurope2014-2018,isavailablehere.

14“WhatisNVIVO?”,NVIVOwebsite,undated.

15Tobecountedas“confirmed”,reportingshouldhavecitedlawenforcement,intelligence,orgovernmentsourcesasestablishingroutesandmethodsofentry.Tobecountedas“strongprobability”,reportingshouldhaveidentifiedasubjectasanasylumseekerorrefugeewhoenteredtheEUduringthepeakyearsofthemigrantcrisisandwasofanationalitythencrossingthebordersinhighvolumes.Othercircumstantialinformation,suchasarrestsinasylumcenters,oftenaddedweighttojudgementstoincludesuspectsinthe“strongprobability”categoryandfinaltally.Bynecessity,thenumbersmayfluctuateovertimesincesomeofthecaseswereinlegaladjudicationasofDecember2018andeventualexonerationwouldbegroundstoremovethemfromthesetallies,whileothersthatshouldhavebeenincludedwereoverlooked.

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16“AnisAmri”,theCounterExtremismProject,undated.

17KimSengupta,“Ansbachexplosion:AngelaMerkelunderpressureoverrefugeepolicyafterfourthattackinoneweek”,Independent(UK),July25,2016.

18AnthonyFaiola,“IslamicStateclaimsGermansuicidebomberwasformermilitantfighter”,The Washington Post,July27,2016.

19“Germantrainattack:ISreleasesvidoof‘Afghanknifeman’”,BBC,July19,2016.

20JenniferNewtonandAllanHall,“ISISaxeattackerMohammedRiyadmayhaveliedaboutbeingfromAfghanistan”,Daily Mail(UK),July20,2016;“Investigatorsdoubttheoriginoftheperpetrator”,SpiegelOnline,July19,2016.

21“FoursuspectsremandedincustodyoverTurkuknifeattack,onemanfreed”,Yle Uutiset,August23,2017.

22SewellChanandMikkoTakkunen,“FinlandAttackSuspect,aMoroccanYouth,WasFlaggedforExtremistViews”,The New York Times,August21,2017.

23TuomasForsell,“Finishcourtnamesknifeattacksuspect”,Reuters,August21,2017;“Moroccanasylumseeker‘targetedwomen’inFinlandterrorstabbing”,AFP,August20,2017.

24GaetanoMazzuca,“Syriandetainedasasmuggleraccusedofterrorism”,La Stampa,November052016.

25“SyrianrefugeejailedoverGermanybombplot”,DeutscheWelle,December20,2018;“GermanpolicearrestSyriansus-pect,avert‘majorterroristattack”,Reuters,October31,2017.

26AxelSpilcker,“Healreadymadethebomb!16-year-oldSyriangotbombinginstructionsinchat”,OnlineFocus,April12,2016;“16-year-oldSyrianconvictedofterroristplans”,ZeitOnline,April10,2017.

27StevenErlanger,“ProfileEmergesofSuspectinAttackonTraintoParis”,The New York Times,August22,2015;“Francetrainshootingsuspectprofile:AyoubEl-Khazzani”,BBC,August25,2015.

28Jean-CharlesBrisardandKevinJackson,“TheIslamicState’sExternalOperationsandtheFrench-BelgianNexus”,Combat-ting Terrorism Center Sentinel,Vol.9,No.11,December2016.

29ClarkBentson,“Asylumseekerinstructedtodrivevehicleintoacrowd,Italianssay”,ABCNews,April26,2018.

30ThomasPany,“Warcrimes:FederalProsecutiongoesagainstal-NusramembersinGermany”,Telepolis,June12,2017;“AlNusramembercommittedsuicideinprison”,ANFNews,August31,2017.

31AlicePhilipson,“TunisianterroristreturnstoEuropeposingasasylum-seeker”,The Telegraph,November9,2015;KellanHowell,“BenNasrMehdi,Islamicterrorist,caughttryingtoenterEuropeonmigrantboat”,Washington Times,November10,2015,;HannahRoberts,“AlQaedabosswhoservedsevenyearsforterroroffensessmuggledhimselfintoEuropebypos-ingasarefugee”,Daily Mail,November8,2015.

32GerhardPiper,“Jihadistsinthestreamofrefugees”,HeiseOnline,September10,2017.

33“DidheplanattacksinEurope?ConfidantofISwarministerChalimovcaught”,OnlineFocus,October15,2016.

34“GemanyjailsSyrianrefugeeoverCanadianUNobserver’sabduction”,CanadianBroadcastService,September21,2017.

35“SyrianmantriedinGermanyoverabductionofCanadianUNobserver”,AssociatedPress,October20,2016;GerhardPiper,“Jihadistsinthestreamofrefugees”,HeiseOnline,September10,2017.

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36AnthonyFaiolaandSouadMekhennet,“TracingthepathoffourterroristssenttoEuropebytheIslamicState”,The Washington Post,April22,2016.

37Jean-CharlesBrisardandKevinJackson,“TheIslamicState’sExternalOperationsandtheFrench-BelgianNexus”,Combatting Terrorism Center Sentinel,Vol.9,No.11,December2016.

38Ibid.;RukminiCallimachi,“HowISISBuilttheMachineryofTerrorUnderEurope’sGaze”,The New York Times,March29,2016.

39PaulCruickshank,“RaidonISISsuspectintheFrenchRiviera”,CNN,August28,2014.

40RukminiCallimachi,“HowISISBuilttheMachineryofTerrorUnderEurope’sGaze”,The New York Times,March29,2016.

41GiovanniLegorano,“ItalianPoliceArrestAlgerianSuspectedofInvolvementWithParis,BrusselsTerrorists;DjamalEddineOualisuspectedofsupplyingfalsedocuments,aliases”,The Wall Street Journal,March27,2016;ValentinaPopandGiovanniLegorano,“BrusselsAttacks:EuropeanAuthoritiesTightenNetonSuspectedTerrorCell”,The Wall Street Journal,March27,2016.

42RuthBender,“GermanyAccusesAsylumSeekerofAidingParisAttacksLeader”,The Wall Street Journal,July7,2016;GuyVanVierden,“FllowingtheFacebooktrailofAbdelhamidAbaaoud’sscouts”,Emmejihad,March19,2018.

43RukminiCallimachi,AllissaJRubin,LaureFourquet,“AviewofISIS’sEvolutioninNewDetailsofParisAttacks”,The New York Times,March19,2016.

44“IslamicStatesuspectsfaceterrorismchargesinGermany”,AssociatedPress,March8,2017.

45MelissaEddy,“GermanyCharges4SyriansinPlottoAttackDusseldorf ”,The New York Times,June2,2016.

46AnthonyFaiola,“Germanyarrests3suspectedSyrianterrorists,foilspossibleIslamicStateplot”,The Washington Post,June2,2016.

47AllanHall,“PolicearrestsuspectwhoplannedterroristatrocityafterseekingsanctuaryinGermany”,Express(UK),August11,2016;JorgDiehl,“TerroristSuspectKhaledH.:Investigatorsfindtorturevideoinraid”,Der Spiegel,December8,2016.

48BenKnight,“GermanydeportsTunisianterrorsuspectto‘likelytorture’”,DeutscheWelle,August3,2017.

49KamailoudiniTagba,“Germany:TunisianArrestedforAllegedMembershipwithISGroup”,The North Africa Post,December16,2016;GerhardPiper,“Jihadistsinthestreamofrefugees”,HeiseOnline,September10,2017.

50“Germantrainattack:ISISreleasesvideoof‘Afghanknifeman’”,BBC,July19,2016.

51“ISISreleasesvideoofallegedBavariatrainattackercallingonMuslimstokill‘infidels’”,RT,July19,2016.

52JenniferNewtonandAllanHall,“ISISaxeattackerMohammedRiyadmayhaveliedaboutbeingfromAfghanistan”,Daily Mail(UK),July20,2016.

53“AsylumProcedures”,EuropeanCommissionMigrationandHomeAffairs,undated.

54“AnualReportontheSituationofAsylumintheEuropeanUnion2015”,EuropeanAsylumSupportOffice,2016.

55Ibid.,p.19;“AnnualReportontheSituationofAsylumintheEuropeanUnion2016”,EuropeanAsylumSupportOffice,2017,p.10.

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56“AnnualReportontheSituationofAsylumintheEuropeanUnion2016”,EuropeanAsylumSupportOffice,2017,p.24.

57TomBatchelor,“TerrorinBrussels:GunmanshotinParisattacksraidwasillegalmigrantwithISISflag”,Express(UK),March16,2016.

58“ISChristmasbombplot:MunirMohammedandRowaidaelHassanjailed”,SkyNews,February23,2018;“PairjailedforUKhomemadebombattackplan”,BBC,February22,2018.

59MarkMisérus,KayaBoumaandMaaikeVos,“InthefootstepsofinconspicuousattackerofCSAmsterdam,JawadS:‘ThereiszeroperspectiveforAfghans’”,de Volkskrant,September7,2018.

60ValentinaPopandRuthBender,“GermanyIll-PreparedforTerrorFight,CriticsSay”,The Wall Street Journal,December22,2016;“Germanybombthreat:Jaberal-BakrcaughtbythreeSyrians”,BBCWorldNews,October10,2016.

61RedazioneRoma,“Terrorism,suspectedjihadiststoppednearTermini”,Rome Chronicle,October6,2017;DanieleRaineri,“Bachirtheblowhard”,Il Foglio,October9,2017.

62AndreaThomas,andNourMohammadAlakraa,“SyrianAccusedofIslamicStateLinksArrestedinGermanRefugeeCamp”,The Wall Street Journal,December17,2015.

63RobinSimcox,“TheAsylum-TerrorNexus:HowEuropeShouldRespond”,TheHeritageFoundation,June18,2018.

64“AsylumProcedures”,EuropeanCommission,MigrationandHomeAffairswebsite,accessedSeptember23,2019.

65JohnMuellerandMarkStewart,“TerrorismandBathtubs:ComparingandAssessingtheRisks”,presentationattheAnnualConventionoftheAmericanPoliticalScienceAssociation,BostonMass.,August30,2018;AlexNowrasteh,“TerroristsbyImmigrationStatusandNationality:ARiskAnalysis,1975-2017”,CatoInstitute,May7,2019;AlexNowrasteh,“CenterforImmigrationStudiesShowsaVerySmallThreatfromTerroristsCrossingtheMexicanBorder”,CatoInstitute,November28,2018.

66“Effectsofterrorism:Atraumaandvictimologicalperspective”,UnitedNationsOfficeonDrugsandCrime,July2018;“ThecostofterrorisminEurope”,RandCorporation,undated.

67“ThecostofterrorisminEurope”,RandCorporation,undated;WoutervanBallegooijandPiotrBakowski.“Thefightagainstterrorism:CostofNon-EuropeReport”,EuropeanParliamentaryResearchService,May2018,p.41.

68RichardWike,BruceStokes,andKatieSimmons,“EuropeansFearWaveofRefugeesWillMeanMoreTerrorism,FewerJobs”,ThePewResearchCenter,July11,2016.

69“Autumn2016StandardEurobarometer:ImmigrationandterrorismcontinuetobeseenasthemostimportantissuesfacingtheEU”,EuropeanCommissionpressrelease,December22,2016.

70PhillipConnorandManuel,JensKrogstad,“Manyworldwideopposemoremigration–bothintoandoutoftheircountries”,ThePewResearchCenter,December10,2018.

71“AmajorityofEurope’svotersdonotconsidermigrationtobethemostimportantissue,accordingtomajornewpoll”,EuropeanCouncilonForeignRelations,April1,2019.

72JohanAhlanderandMansoorYosufzai,“Swedenintensifiescrackdownonillegalimmigrants”,Reuters,July13,2017.

73PaulinaNeuding,“SolongtoSwedishpoliticalstability”,Politico,September9,2018;JonHenley,“Swedengetsnewgovernmentfourmonthsafterelection”,The Guardian,January18,2019.

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74“Finland’sleftistSocialDemocratswonarazor-thinvictoryinSunday’sgeneralelection,holdingoffthefar-rightFinnsPartywhichsurgedonananti-immigrationagenda”,France24,April22,2019;“Finlandelections:Theworld’shappiestnationisslippingtothefar-right”,TRTWorld,April22,2019.

75EmilySchultheis,“WhatRight-WingPopulistsLookLikeinNorway”,The Atlantic,September12,2017.

76MartinSelsoeSorensen,“DenmarkElectionisFueledbyAngeronClimateandImmigration”,The New York Times,June4,2019;“Denmark’sleft-wingbloctriumphsinelectionasfarrightsufferslosses”,The Local DK,June6,2019.

77JamesRynolds,“Italyelection:Whatdoestheresultmean?”,BBC,March5,2018;RitulaShah,“Italianelectiondominatedbyimmigrationdebate”,BBC,February26,2018.

78DionNissenbaumandJulianE.Barnes,“BrusselsAttacksFuelPushtoCloseOffMilitant’sHighway”,The Wall Street Journal,March23,2016.

79“OffensiveagainsttheSyrianCityofManbijMayBetheBeginningofaCampaigntoLiberatetheAreaneartheSyrian-TurkishBorderfromISIS”,MeirAmitIntelligenceandTerrorismInformationCenter,June23,2016.

80JimMichaels,“U.S.-backedSyrianforcesgavedefeatedISILmilitantssafepassage”,USA Today,August16,2016.

81EmmaGraham-HarrisonandSpencerAckerman,“U.S.airstrikesallegedlykillatleast73civiliansinnorthernSyria”,The Guardian,July20,2016;RyanDevereaux,“CivilianDeathTollFromCoalitionAirstrikesinSyriaCouldBeSingleLargestinU.S.-LedWaronISIS”,TheIntercept,July19,2016.

82“TheFutureofSchengen”,EuropeanCouncilonForeignRelations,undated;NilsZimmermann,“Howcostlywouldinner-Europeanbordercontrolsbe?”,DeutscheWelle,July12,2018.

83ToddBensman,“ProgressReportfromHungary’sFencedBorderlands”,CenterforImmigrationStudiesblog,April3,2019.

84“TemporaryReintroductionofBorderControl”,EuropeanCommission,MigrationandHomeAffairs,undated;SteveErlinger,“BrusselsAttacksFuelDebateOverMigrantsinaFracturedEurope”,The New York Times,March22,2016.

85“BacktoSchengen:CounciladoptsCommissionproposalonnextstepstowardsliftingoftemporaryinternalbordercontrols”,EuropeanCommissionpressrelease,May12,2016;RominaMcGuinness,“SchengenRejectedbyFranceascountryextendsborderchecksduetoterrorthreat”,Express(UK),April5,2018.

86“BacktoSchengen:CounciladoptsCommissionproposalonnextstepstowardsliftingoftemporaryinternalbordercontrols”,EuropeanCommissionpressrelease,May12,2016.

87“SchengenRejectedbyFranceascountryextendsborderchecksduetoterrorthreat”,Express(UK),April5,2018.

88AlexMassie,“HowTerrorThreatenstheEU”,Slate,March25,2016;NedSimons,“BrexitWillKeepUKSaferfromISISTerror,SaysJusticeMinisterDominicRaabinEUReferendumSpeech”,Huffington Post,March29,2016;AlanRileyandFrancisGhilès,“Brexit:CausesandConsequences”,BarcelonaCentreforInternationalAffairs,October20,2016;RobertHutton,“TheRootsofBrexit”,BloomburgNews,March20,2019.

89AjalaOlaykinka,“BrexitandtheFightagainstTerrorismintheUnitedKingdom”,E-InternationalRelations,May31,2018;AlanRileyandFrancisGhilès,“Brexit:CausesandConsequences”,BarcelonaCentreforInternationalAffairs,October20,2016.

90MatthewGoodwinandCaitlinMilazzo,“Takingbackcontrol?Investigatingtheroleofimmigrationinthe2016voteforBrexit”,The British Journal of Politics and International Relations,June8,2017.

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91JohnMauldin,“3ReasonsBritsVotedforBrexit”,Forbes,July5,2018.

92JoannaDawson,“Brexit:implicationsfornationalsecurity”,HouseofCommonsbriefingpaperCBP7798,March31,2017.

93NoahCarl,“CSIBrexit4:People’sStateReasonsforVotingLeaveorRemain”,NuffieldCollegeCentreforSocialInvestigation,April24,2018.

94ToddBensman,“TheUltra-marathonersofHumanSmuggling:HowtoCombattheDarkNetworksthatCanMoveTerroristsoverAmericanLandBorders”,Homeland Security Affairs Journal,VolumeXII,May2016.

95ToddBensman,“TerroristInfiltrationThreatattheSouthwestBorder:ThenationalsecuritygapinAmerica’simmigrationenforcementdebate”,CenterforImmigrationStudiesBackgrounder,August13,2018;“Myth/Fact:KnownandSuspectedTerrorists/SpecialInterestAliens”,U.S.DepartmentofHomelandSecurityFactSheet,January7,2019.

96KristenBialik,“Borderapprehensionsincreasedin2018–especiallyformigrantfamilies”,PewResearchCenter,January16,2019;“Myth/Fact:KnownandSuspectedTerrorists/SpecialInterestAliens”,U.S.DepartmentofHomelandSecurityFactSheet,January7,2019.

97LuigiAchilli,“IrregularMigrationtotheEUandHumanSmugglingintheMediterranean:TheNexusbetweenOrganizedCrimeandIrregularMigration”,MigrationPolicyCenteroftheEuropeanUniversityInstituteinFlorence,2016.

98“Smugglingofmigrants:theharshsearchforabetterlife”,UnitedNationsOfficeonDrugsandCrime,undated;KetariaStamouli,“InsidetheMigrant-SmugglingTrade:EscapesStartat1,000Euros”,The Wall Street Journal,March29,2016.

99MichaelBirnbaum,“SmugglingrefugeesintoEuropeisanewgrowthindustry”,The Washington Post,September3,2015.

100“StoppingTerroristTravelThroughIllicitPathwaystotheHomeland”,HouseHomelandSecurityCommitteeMajorityStaffReport,January2019,p.7;ToddBensman,“TheUltra-marathonersofHumanSmuggling:HowtoCombattheDarkNetworksthatCanMoveTerroristsoverAmericanLandBorders”,Homeland Security Affairs Journal,VolumeXII,May2016.

101JohnRollins,“TenYearsAftertheTerroristAttacksof9/11:TheNeedforaTransnationalApproachtoAddressRiskstoGlobalSecurityInterests”,Homeland Security Affairs,September2011;ZaraRabinovitz,“Pushingoutboundaries:humanitarianscreeningandoffshoreprocessing”,MigrationPolicyInstitute,October16,2014.

102StacyMeichtryandJoshuaRobinson,“ParisAttacksPlotHatchedinPlainSight”,The Wall Street Journal,November24,2015;MarcusWalkerandNoemieBisserbe,“ParisStadiumAttackerEnteredEuropeViaGreece”,The Wall Street Journal,November16,2015;DavidGauthier-Villars,“ParisAttacksShowCracksinFrance’sCounterterrorismEffort”,The Wall Street Journal,November23,2015.

103JohnNomikos,“CombatingIllegalImmigration,OrganizedCrimeandTerrorisminGreeceandItaly”,EuropeanUnionRoundTable;“RolesandResponsibilities”,Frontexwebsite,undated;“QuestionsandAnswers:SmugglingofMigrantstotheEUandEurope”,EuropeanCommissionPressRelease,January13,2015.104ToddBensman,“BreachingAmericaPartIV:MadeittoAmerica”, toddbensman.com,January18,2019.

105“BorderPatrol:KeyElementsofNewStrategicPlanNotYetinPlacetoInformSecurityStatusandResourceNeeds”,GovernmentAccountabilityOffice,December2012.

106ToddBensman,“Video:CISinPanamaandCostaRica:HowAmericaFiltersPotentialTerroristsinDistantLands”,CenterforImmigrationStudiesblog,December12,2018.

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107DavidV.Aguilar,“ArrestsofAliensfromSpecialInterestCountries”,U.S.CustomsandBorderProtectionmemorandum,November1,2004.

108May2019authorinterviewwithretiredFBISpecialAgentJamesG.Conway,formerprogrammanagerofcounterterrorismandcounter-intelligencefortheFBI’sOfficeoftheLegalAttaché,U.S.Embassy,MexicoCity,after9/11.

109JohnnyWakefield,“EverythingweknowaboutthemanchargedinEdmonton’struckattackfromthewomanwhoknowshimbest”,The Edmonton Journal,September28,2018.

110ToddBensman,“HaveTerroristsCrossedOurBorder?AninitialcountofsuspectedterroristsencounteredenrouteandattheU.S.SouthwestBordersince2001”,CenterforImmigrationStudiesBackgrounder,November2018.

111IsmaelLopez,“NicaraguaarrestsfourmensuspectedoftiestoIslamicState”,Reuters,June25,2019;“CostaRicadetainsSomaliwithallegedterrorismlinks”,Reuters,March23,2017;“6deportedfromPanamahandedovertoFIA”,Pakistan Today,August6,2016;ToddBensman,“CentralAmericanCountriesAreHelpingMiddleEasternersIllegalEntertheUnitedStates”,TheFederalist,January2,2019.112ToddBensman,“HaveTerroristsCrossedOurBorder?AninitialcountofsuspectedterroristsencounteredenrouteandattheU.S.SouthwestBordersince2001”,CenterforImmigrationStudiesBackgrounder,November2018.

113DanielMello,“BrazilpolicecrackdownongroupsendingAfricanstoUS”,AgenciaBrasil,August20,2019;GuillermoContreras,“JordanianpleadsguiltytosmugglingYemenimmigrantsintotheU.S.viatheTexasborder”,The San Antonio Express-News,April30,2019;“ICEremovesPakistanimansentencedforroleinhumansmugglingconspiracy”,U.S.ImmigrationandCustomsEnforcementpressrelease,December19,2018;“Americas:INTERPOL-ledOperationAndesnets49peoplesmugglers”,INTERPOL,December18,2018;ToddBensman,“FormerAfghanInterpreterinNewJerseySmuggledAfghan‘SecurityRisk’OverTexas-MexicoBorder:Here’sWhatWeKnow”,CenterforImmigrationStudiesblog,August6,2019.114JehJohnson,“CrossBorderMovementofSpecialInterestAliens”,DepartmentofHomelandSecuritymemorandum,June24,2016.

115Informationprovidedtotheauthorbyintelligencecommunitysourceswhohaverequestedanonymitybecausetheywerenotauthorizedtoreleaseit;ToddBensman,“EightRecommendationstoCongressandtheWhiteHousetoCounterPotentialTerrorTraveltotheU.S.SouthernBorder”,CenterforImmigrationStudiesBackgrounder,November1,2018.

116RichardA.Best,Jr.,“SecuringAmerica’sBorders:TheRoleoftheIntelligenceCommunity”,CongressionalResearchServiceReportNo.7-5700,2010,December7,2010.

117“TheExtraterritorialCriminalTravelStrikeForce”,U.S.JusticeDepartment,lastrevisedAugust2017.118ToddBensman,“U.S.-SupportedBrazilianOpBustsSmugglersMovingMigrantsfromMuslim-MajorityCountries”,CenterforImmigrationStudiesblog,August27,2019.

119RichardM.Stana, “AlienSmuggling:DHScouldBetterAddressAlienSmugglingalongtheSouthwestBorderbyLeveragingInvestigativeResourcesandMeasuringProgramPerformance”,GovernmentAccountabilityOffice,2010.

120ToddBensman,“BreachingAmericaPartIV:MadeittoAmerica”, toddbensman.com,January18,2019.

121InformationprovidedtoauthorbytheFBIandICEOfficeofIntelligencewhileauthorwasemployedbytheTexasDepartmentofPublicSafetyIntelligenceandCounterterrorismDivision;ToddBensman,“EightRecommendationstoCongressandtheWhiteHousetoCounterPotentialTerrorTraveltotheU.S.SouthernBorder”,CenterforImmigrationStudiesBackgrounder,November1,2018.

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122May2019authorinterviewwithretiredFBISpecialAgentJamesG.Conway,formerprogrammanagerofcounterterrorismandcounter-intelligencefortheFBI’sOfficeoftheLegalAttaché,U.S.Embassy,MexicoCity,after9/11.

123ToddBensman,“BreachingAmericaPartIII:Mexico:stuckinthemiddle”,toddbensman.com,January18,2019.

124ToddBensman,“BreachingAmericaPartIV:MadeittoAmerica”, toddbensman.com,January18,2019.

125Ibid.

126Ibid.

127Ibid.;“BorderPatrol:KeyElementsofNewStrategicPlanNotYetinPlacetoInformSecurityStatusandResourceNeeds”,GovernmentAccountabilityOffice,December2012.

128DeniseLuandDerekWatkins,“CourtBacklogMayProveBiggerBarrierforMigrantsThanAnyWall”,The New York Times,January24,2019.

129MichelleHackman,“U.S.ImmigrationCourts’BacklogExceedsOneMillionCases”,The Wall Street Journal,September18,2019.

130“U.S.AsylumSystem:AgenciesHaveTakenActionstoHelpEnsureQualityintheAsylumAdjudicationProcess,butChallengesRemain”,GovernmentAccountabilityOffice, 2008;CherylK.Chumley,“FourGOPRepsPressforGAOProbeof‘Rampant’AsylumFraud”,Newsmax,February25,2014;ToddBensman,“TheUltra-marathonersofHumanSmuggling:HowtoCombattheDarkNetworksthatCanMoveTerroristsoverAmericanLandBorders”,Homeland Security Affairs Journal,VolumeXII,May2016.

131“AdditionalActionsNeededtoAddressFraudRisks”,GovernmentAccountabilityOffice, 2015.

132ToddBensman,“TheUltra-marathonersofHumanSmuggling:HowtoCombattheDarkNetworksthatCanMoveTerroristsoverAmericanLandBorders”,Homeland Security Affairs Journal,VolumeXII,May2016,pp.80-84.133ToddBensman,“TravelersfromMuslimCountriesStillJumpingU.S.Borders”,PJMedia,February20,2009.

134DavidKenner,“AllISISHasLeftIsMoney.LotsofIt”,The Atlantic,March24,2019.

135AnneSpeckhardandArdianShajkovci,“ISISFighterClaimsAttackPlotViaMexico,UnderscoringBorderVulnerability”,Homeland Security Today,June3,2019.

136“StoppingTerroristTravelThroughIllicitPathwaystotheHomeland”,HouseHomelandSecurityCommitteeMajorityStaffReport,January2019;JehJohnson,“CrossBorderMovementofSpecialInterestAliens”,DepartmentofHomelandSecuritymemorandum,June24,2016;ToddBensman,“TerroristInfiltrationThreatattheSouthwestBorder:ThenationalsecuritygapinAmerica’simmigrationenforcementdebate”,CenterforImmigrationStudiesBackgrounder,August13,2018.