What smartphones teach us about the radical future of technology, business, and society

Future of our economy

What Smartphones Teach Us About the Radical Future of Technology,

Business, & Society

Principal, Delta Wisdom Chair, London Futurists

David Wood @dw2

@dw2

Preamble: What I take for granted in this presentation

A. Many radical technologies are poised with the potential to radically improve human experience – Examples include robotics, self-driving vehicles, renewable energy systems,

3D printing, artificial intelligence, augmented reality, synthetic biology, genetic re-engineering, brain scanning, smart mind-enhancement drugs, and rejuvenation biotech

B. But there’s nothing automatic about the development of any new technology – Many roadblocks can delay its implementation and adoption – See http://anticipating2025.com/book/ for more details

C. Likewise there’s no guarantee that a successful new industry can form around these technologies – Even though it would ultimately be good for everyone if it did

http://anticipating2025.com/book/

http://anticipating2025.com/book/

@dw2

Preamble (continued): What I take for granted in this presentation

D. Potential breakthrough new industries can draw lessons from the successes and failures of the smartphone industry – Beware any calls to rush ahead into the future full of ambition & confidence – It’s worth taking the time to “look in the rear-view mirror” to observe the

factors that influenced the success and failure of major smartphone companies

E. It’s better to learn these lessons in advance, if possible – Rather than to repeat the mistakes in the years ahead in the new industry

F. Of course, circumstances may change – Lessons from smartphones may not apply in the future – But it’s worthwhile understanding these lessons first, before taking any

conscious decision to ignore them!

Vision: 1998

@dw2

What Smartphones Teach Us About the Radical Future of Technology, Business, & Society

1. Disruptive tech can take a long time in gestation – Even though it may eventually seem to blossom quickly

@dw2

The (slow) emergence of tablets

http://joyreactor.com/post/300138

Bill Gates introduces Tablet PC. No one cares.

Steve Jobs introduces the iPad. The world pisses itself like an

excited dog.

Steve Ballmer introduces Surface. People accuse Microsoft of

stealing the idea from Apple.



@dw2

27 January, 2010 “8 Things That Suck About the iPad”

http://gizmodo.com/5458382/8-things-that-suck-about-the-ipad

1. Big, Ugly Bezel 2. No Multitasking 3. No Cameras 4. Touch Keyboard 5. No HDMI Out 6. The Name “iPad” 7. No Flash 8. Adapters, Adapters, Adapters

(“…You need an adapter for USB for god’s sake”) 9. It’s Not Widescreen 10. Doesn’t Support T-Mobile 3G

(“it uses microSIMs that literally no one else uses”) 11. A Closed App Ecosystem.

http://dw2blog.com/2010/01/28/the-ipad-more-for-less/

The (slow) emergence of tablets

“iFail”

“Not game-changing like the iPhone was” – Robert Scoble











@dw2

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ipad#Model_comparison http://thenextweb.com/apple/2012/10/02/rare-full-recording-of-1983-steve-jobs-speech-reveals-

apple-had-been-working-on-ipad-for-27-years/

iPad roadmap: Incremental delivery towards a vision

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2010 2011 2012 2013

iPad iPad 2 iPad 3rd gen iPad 4th gen iPad Air

2014

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

“Apple’s strategy is really simple. What we want to do is we want to put an incredibly great computer in a book that you can carry around with you and learn how to use in 20 minutes… “And we really want to do it with a radio link in it so you don’t have to hook up to anything and you’re in communication with all of these larger databases and other computers.”

Steve Jobs, 1983,

International Design

Conference, Aspen

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ipad#Model_comparison

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ipad#Model_comparison

http://thenextweb.com/apple/2012/10/02/rare-full-recording-of-1983-steve-jobs-speech-reveals-apple-had-been-working-on-ipad-for-27-years/




































@dw2

23 October, 2012

“Apple sold their 100 millionth iPad two weeks ago”

“We sold more iPads in the June quarter than any PC maker sold of

their entire line-up”

Market-cap > $620 billion

>4 years to sell 100M iPhones <3 years to sell 100M iPads

www.engadget.com/2012/10/23/apple-ipad-mini-liveblog/ www.forbes.com/sites/benzingainsights/2012/08/21/apple-now-most-valuable-company-in-history/

The (slow) emergence of tablets Apple Now Most Valuable Company in History

http://www.engadget.com/2012/10/23/apple-ipad-mini-liveblog/







http://www.forbes.com/sites/benzingainsights/2012/08/21/apple-now-most-valuable-company-in-history/













@dw2

Kindle books vs. physical books

www.theverge.com/2012/9/6/3298533/amazon-kindle-event-september-6th-video-watch

E-books leapfrog physical books at Amazon

in less than 3 years

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

http://www.theverge.com/2012/9/6/3298533/amazon-kindle-event-september-6th-video-watch













@dw2

Progress by combination

Smart combination of multiple tech improvements • Cheap digital storage • Low energy screens, pleasant to look at • High-speed “Whisper net” wireless distribution • Customisable (Linux/Android) software platform • Huge catalog of books available to purchase

+ Innovative business model

Improvements in computers: Performance

Applicability (digitisation)

@dw2



2. Disruptive products rely on smart combination – Smart tech, innovative business model, powerful content – Delivered incrementally (roadmaps are important!)

3. There are huge amounts of hard work setting the scene

@dw2

Drama in the last five years

@dw2

Causes of corporate stumbles

Corporate inertia Key skills missing

@dw2

Nokia’s biggest mistake (?) But if some ultimate cause needed to be named, Ollila says that it would be the problems that Nokia experienced in software know-how. The problem was recognised already in the 1990s. There were plans to fix them, but they were not implemented.

http://www.zdnet.com/nokia-where-it-all-went-wrong-by-the-man-who-made-it-the-worlds-biggest-mobile-company-7000023046/

http://www.hs.fi/talous/a1381973653499

Jorma Ollila, CEO of Nokia 1992-2006, interviewed in October 2013

Large-scale software? Design? Integration? The new new thing??

Knowing-doing gap!

http://dw2blog.com/2010/09/13/accelerating-nokias-renewal/













































@dw2

Not spotting the change Phone-centric worldview

• Telephony was the most important app

• Phone manufacturers should prioritise meeting the requests of network operators

• Third party apps were a nice “extra”, but didn’t make any fundamental difference

• Most innovation in smartphones came from within the mobile industry, rather than from Silicon Valley

• The US market was a laggard in the adoption of smartphone technology; it was better to invest in Japan, China, or even India, than in the US.

Internet-centric worldview

• The Internet (and particularly the web browser) was now the most important application

• Phone manufacturers should prioritise meeting the requests of Silicon Valley entrepreneurs

• Third party apps – and, more generally, openness to external innovators – could bring fundamental new value

• The US market would dramatically influence the way new smartphone technology was adopted around the world.

Not being able to act on spotting the change

@dw2

Causes of corporate stumbles

Corporate inertia

Technical debt

Loss of vision Ecosystem failure

Key skills missing

@dw2

African proverb: Travelling

If you want to go fast, go alone;

If you want to go far, go together

Products need speed

Platforms enable long-distance travel

(Platforms need speed too) 2014

2019

@dw2

Positive feedback cycles

Design, Manufacturing

Computers

@dw2


Software tools (debuggers, compilers…)

Software

@dw2


Education

Technology

@dw2


Education

Technology

People Networks

=> Technology is likely to improve, faster and faster

@dw2


Developers

Technology Platform

Consumers Business Partners

@dw2

Leading in a converged world • Platform leadership

A. Nurturing insight into technology trends B. Flexible, future-proof architecture C. Interfaces that enable virtuous cycles

• Market leadership D. Business model innovation

E. Developer motivation

F. User motivation

• Execution leadership G. Continuous integration

H. Enterprise-scale agility

I. Lean processes (focus)

@dw2

Building a winning alliance, despite conflicts of interest

Smartphones Smart

networks

Developers

It helps to have an insanely great product!

It helps to have powerful allies!

@dw2



2. Disruptive products rely on smart combination – Smart tech, innovative business model, powerful content – Delivered incrementally (roadmaps are important!)

3. There are huge amounts of hard work setting the scene – Platform skills, Marketing skills, Execution skills – Patient investors; the right top management (no knowing-doing gap)

4. Don’t neglect culture engineering – User expectations , successful memes, DXE, ‘political’ alliances

@dw2

http://smartphonesandbeyond.com/

For more info

Available summer

2014



What smartphones teach us about the radical future of technology, business, and society

Technology

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