What promises us a project of the year 2017?erc.az/files/neshrler/Presentation_BUDGET...
Transcript of What promises us a project of the year 2017?erc.az/files/neshrler/Presentation_BUDGET...
“What promises us a project of the year 2017?
Dr. Gubad Ibadoghlu,
Senior Analyst
Oil and non-oil GDP in 2016
monthly, in mln. manats
2 695,8 2 572,9
2 971,7
2 698,3 2 867,7
3 790,8
3 222,9
4 161,8
1 315,4 1 304,6
1 728,3 1 580,9
1 777,2 1 698,7
1 897,4 1 743,4
1 000,0
1 500,0
2 000,0
2 500,0
3 000,0
3 500,0
4 000,0
4 500,0
Yanvar Fevral Mart Aprel May İyun İyul Avqust
Foreign trade indicators in 8 months
442,81
537,07
846,05 768,26 737,26 715,79 710,03
782,73
657,08 566,39 557,15
669,19 600,16
771,49 768,33
-300,0
-200,0
-100,0
0,0
100,0
200,0
300,0
400,0
500,0
0,00
200,00
400,00
600,00
800,00
1000,00
1200,00
Yanvar Fevral Mart Aprel May İyun İyul Avqust
İdxal İxrac Saldo
Composition of GDP in 2016
6,4
36.2
9.9
39.6
7.8
Kənd, meşə və balıqçılıq təsərrüfatı
Sənaye
Tikinti
Xidmətlərin istehsalı
Məhsula və idxala xalis vergilər
Trend of state budget in l0 years
Years Revenue of state budget (mln.manats)
Expenditure of state budget (mln.manats)
Budget deficit(-), (mln.manats)
2008 10762,7 10774,2 -11,5
2009 10325,9 10503,9 -178,0
2010 11403,0 11766,0 -363,0
2011 15700,7 15397,5 +303,2
2012 17038 17672,0 -634,0
2013 19159,0 19850,0 -691,1
2014 18 400,6 18 709,0 -308,4
2015 17 497, 9 17784,5 -286,6
2016 (forecast) 16822,0 18495,0 -1673,0
2017 (forecast) 15955 16600 -645,0
Average 15306 15765
Transfert from SOFAZ, mln. manat
Years Transfer from
SOFAZ
The share of SOFAZ’s
transfer in the total
revenues of budget, %
The share of SOFAZ’s
transfer in the GDP, %
2003 100,0 8,2 1,3
2004 130,0 8,8 1,5
2005 150,0 7,2 1,2
2006 585,0 15,1 3,2
2007 585,0 9,7 2,1
2008 3800,0 35,3 9,5
2009 4915,0 47,6 14,2
2010 5915,0 51,9 14,2
2011 9000,0 57,3 18,0
2012 9905,0 57,3 18,3
2013 11350,0 58,2 19,7
2014 9337,0 50,7 15,8
2015 8130,0 47,6 14,2
2016 (forecast) 7615,0 45,2 13,2
2017 (forecast) 6100,0 38,2 9,9
Transfert from SOFAZ, mln. manats
4915 5915
9000 9905
11350
9337
8130 7615
6100
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
65,8
68,8
73,8
73,1
73,1
66,0
58,4
54,8
49.2
34,2
31,2
26,2
26,9
26,9
34,0
41,6
45,2
50.8
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
State revenues by sectors
2014 2015 İndustry 3 107,50 2 857,50
Servic e 1 342,00 1 236,40
Construction 929,6 849,3
Communaication 317,1 351,2
Banks and insuramce
262,8 395,8
Transport 209,2 296,9
Agricultura 12,8 15,7
Others 431,2 442,7
Investment expenditure during the 2008-2017
Years Investment
expenditure,
mln.manats
The share of total
budget expenditure,
per cent
2008 4,292 39,8
2009 3,567 33,9
2010 4 ,147 35,2
2011 5,866 38,1
2012 5,753 32,5
2013 6,934 34,9
2014 6,278 33,5
2015 5,002 28,1
2016 (forecast) 3, 024 16,3
2017 (forecast) 2,521 15,1
Total 33,935 24,4
Expenditure each 100 manats during 2006-2015 years
33 manats 70 cent to
construction
8 manats 91 cent to
education
8 manats 39 cent
Social protection and defense
7 manats 63 cent to
Administrative
3 manats 55 cent
Health
State budget in crisis times
2015 fact
2016 Forecast
2017 Forecast
Parallel between the forecast 2016 and 2017
Discrepancy (+; -)
Per cent
Revenue 17498,0 16822,0 15955,0 -867,0 -5,2
Ependiture 17784,6 18495,0 16600,0 -1895,0 -10,2
Composition of budget revenues in 2017
Ministry of
Taxes
45% State Oil Fund
38%
State Customs
Committee
14%
Other revenues
3%
Each 100 manats coming from …
49 manats
20 cent
50 manats
80 cent
67 manats 30 cent
27 manats 20 cent
5 manats 50 cent
•Oil sector
• Non oil sector
• Ministry of taxes
• State Customs Committee
• State Property Committee and others.
Each 100 manats coming from …
25
AZN
• VAT
12,96 AZN
• Profit taxes from companies
7,3
AZN
•Income taxes from individuals
Composition of expenditures in state budget for 2017
9745,25213,0
1641,8
current expenditure capital expenditure service for state debts
58,7 %
31,18
9,9 %
Economic clarification of state budget for 2017
Composition of expenditure of state budget for 2017
Adminstrative 8%
Education 12% Science
1%
Health 5%
Millitary defence 18%
Social protection
and defence
14%
Construction 17%
Culture 2%
Agrarian sector 3%
Ecological 0%
Law enforesments 9%
Service for state bets
11%
Composition of education expenditure for 2017 budget
Composition of health expenditure for 2017 budget
Main message of state budger for 2017
1) There is no expertation for big scale privatiation. Revenues from privatized state enterprises and receipts from the lease of land projected 1 million more than compare with last year.
2) Reduced subsidies to the regions. Centralized expenditures for regulation of local revenues and expenditures will decrease more than 10 times from 774.9 mln. Manats in 2016 to 68.5 mln. Manats in 2017.
3) Reduced of investment expenditures.
Risk factors in state budget for 2017
Risk factors
Revenues
Price of oil Envoriment of non oil
sector
Expenditures
Currency of manats
• Thanks for your attention
• Questions