What Makes a Successful Life?€¦ · What Makes a Successful Life? Evidence from Cohort Studies...
Transcript of What Makes a Successful Life?€¦ · What Makes a Successful Life? Evidence from Cohort Studies...
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What Makes a Successful Life?
Evidence from Cohort Studies
Nick PowdthaveeWarwick Business School
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Allow me to begin with an anecdote about two economists and a dentist
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It’s extremely difficult to predict the future*
*Extremely difficult, but not entirely impossible.
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What do we mean by “a successful life”?
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But perhaps the ultimate goal is to be completely satisfied with one’s life
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The idea is to build a life-course model of adult life satisfaction
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The kind of data we need
• Would be one that follows a random sample of individuals from…
…to
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British Cohort Surveys• National Child Development Study (NCDS)
– Follow the lives of 17,0000 people born in the UK in a single week of 1958
• British Cohort Study (BCS)– Follow the cohort of 1970
• Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC)– Follow the lives of children born in the Avon area in the early
90s
• Millennium Cohort Study (MCS)– Follow the lives of children born in the year 2000
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Distribution of life-satisfaction (0-10) at ages 34 and 42 (BCS)
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The kind of “successful” equations we run
• Adult outcomes = f(pre-birth information, early childhood experiences)
• Adult life satisfaction = g(adult outcomes, pre-birth information, early childhood experiences)
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We then run standardized multiple regressions in which both dependent and independent variables are standardized to have zero mean and a standard deviation of 1
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So what have we learned so far about the contemporaneous correlations between adult outcomes and adult life satisfaction?
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How adult life-satisfaction at 34 and 42 is explained by adult outcomes at these ages
Notes: Other controls include child intellectual performance, behavioural and emotional health outcomes at age 16, parents’ education, family income, parental involvement, mother’s mental health, family break-up, mother’s work, father unemployment, number of siblings, post-marital conception, gender, ethnicity, low birth weight and age dummy(42). Robust standard errors in parentheses.
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To what extent can we explain variation in adult life satisfaction using information on life up to aged 16?
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How adult life-satisfaction is predicted by child outcomes at 16
Notes: Partial correlation coefficients. Information from BCS respondents at ages 34 and 42. Other controls include parents’ education, family income, parental involvement, mother’s mental health, family break-up, mother’s work, father unemployment, number of siblings, post-marital conception, gender, ethnicity, low birth weight, and age dummy (42). Robust standard errors in parentheses.
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BCS also allows us to look further back to the effect of a person’s family working its way through
everything that follows
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How adult life-satisfaction is predicted by family background
Notes: Partial correlation coefficients, Information from BCS respondents at ages 34 and 42. Other controls include gender, ethnicity, low birth weight, and age dummy (42). Robust standard errors in parentheses.
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Causes of adult outcomes
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How adult outcomes are predicted by child outcomes
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Causes of child outcomes
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School also explains a lot of variation in child outcomes
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What we still know less about…
• …is the importance of genetics in the life-course model of well-being
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Knowing when and where to intervene
• Which areas of life require more intervention or less – for children is it their emotional, behavioural or intellectual life, and for adults is it income support, employment or family support?
• If intervene during childhood, how long would the effects last?
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In summary
• Child emotional health is more important than child intellectual performance as a predictor of adult life satisfaction
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• Child intellectual performance is the most important predictor of adult incomes, although adult incomes explain only 0.5% of the variation in adult life satisfaction
In summary
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An emotionally successful child tends to reveal a completely
satisfied with life adult
Thank you!