What lurks in yonder shadow there? · What lurks in yonder shadow? Not a policy proposal. Remco van...

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What lurks in yonder shadow? Not a policy proposal. Remco van Mook RIPE 60, Prague May 2010

Transcript of What lurks in yonder shadow there? · What lurks in yonder shadow? Not a policy proposal. Remco van...

Page 1: What lurks in yonder shadow there? · What lurks in yonder shadow? Not a policy proposal. Remco van Mook RIPE 60, Prague May 2010 . RIPE Policy An LIR may receive an additional allocation

What lurks in yonder shadow?

Not a policy proposal.

Remco van Mook RIPE 60, Prague May 2010

Page 2: What lurks in yonder shadow there? · What lurks in yonder shadow? Not a policy proposal. Remco van Mook RIPE 60, Prague May 2010 . RIPE Policy An LIR may receive an additional allocation

RIPE Policy

An LIR may receive an additional allocation when about eighty percent (80%)

of all the address space

currently allocated to it

is used in valid assignments

or sub-allocations.

Page 3: What lurks in yonder shadow there? · What lurks in yonder shadow? Not a policy proposal. Remco van Mook RIPE 60, Prague May 2010 . RIPE Policy An LIR may receive an additional allocation

AfriNIC Policy

An LIR may receive an additional allocation when about 80%

of all the address space

currently allocated to it

has been used in valid assignments

and/or sub-allocations.

Page 4: What lurks in yonder shadow there? · What lurks in yonder shadow? Not a policy proposal. Remco van Mook RIPE 60, Prague May 2010 . RIPE Policy An LIR may receive an additional allocation

ARIN Policy

ISPs must have efficiently utilized

all previous allocations

and at least 80%

of their most recent allocation

in order to receive additional space.

Page 5: What lurks in yonder shadow there? · What lurks in yonder shadow? Not a policy proposal. Remco van Mook RIPE 60, Prague May 2010 . RIPE Policy An LIR may receive an additional allocation

APNIC Policy

An LIR is not eligible to receive

subsequent allocations

until its current assignments account for

at least eighty percent

of the total address space

from all allocations it holds.

Page 6: What lurks in yonder shadow there? · What lurks in yonder shadow? Not a policy proposal. Remco van Mook RIPE 60, Prague May 2010 . RIPE Policy An LIR may receive an additional allocation

LACNIC Policy

In order to receive

the additional space requested,

a Registry shall have used

at least 80%

of its previous allocations.

Page 7: What lurks in yonder shadow there? · What lurks in yonder shadow? Not a policy proposal. Remco van Mook RIPE 60, Prague May 2010 . RIPE Policy An LIR may receive an additional allocation

Historical Documents

RIPE-159 (1997) states:

A request should be submitted to the RIPE NCC

when the currently allocated address space

is nearly used up (about 90 percent)

This is the first time a threshold is documented!

Page 8: What lurks in yonder shadow there? · What lurks in yonder shadow? Not a policy proposal. Remco van Mook RIPE 60, Prague May 2010 . RIPE Policy An LIR may receive an additional allocation

Followed one year later by:

RIPE-185 (1998) states:

… a request should be submitted to the RIPE NCC when the currently allocated address space

is nearly used up (about 80 percent)…

Page 9: What lurks in yonder shadow there? · What lurks in yonder shadow? Not a policy proposal. Remco van Mook RIPE 60, Prague May 2010 . RIPE Policy An LIR may receive an additional allocation

Many moons later...

2005-01 Draft Policy Text

b. New: "An LIR may receive an additional allocation when its total allocated address space usage meets the HD-Ratio value of 0.96.“

In short: the more space you have, the less utilization you need to get more.

(71% utilization for a /20, 57% for a /12)

Page 10: What lurks in yonder shadow there? · What lurks in yonder shadow? Not a policy proposal. Remco van Mook RIPE 60, Prague May 2010 . RIPE Policy An LIR may receive an additional allocation

2005-01 Draft Policy Text

b. New: "An LIR may receive an additional allocation when its total allocated address space usage meets the HD-Ratio value of 0.96.“

In short: the more space you have, the less utilization you need to get more.

(71% utilization for a /20, 57% for a /12)

Many moons later...

Page 11: What lurks in yonder shadow there? · What lurks in yonder shadow? Not a policy proposal. Remco van Mook RIPE 60, Prague May 2010 . RIPE Policy An LIR may receive an additional allocation

So 80% is a “sweet spot”

It addresses conservation and aggregation issues

Without making

technical and administrative cost too high (for most)

90% set the barrier too high

70% and less was deemed too low

Page 12: What lurks in yonder shadow there? · What lurks in yonder shadow? Not a policy proposal. Remco van Mook RIPE 60, Prague May 2010 . RIPE Policy An LIR may receive an additional allocation

So 80% is a “sweet spot”

Technical and Administrative

cost

Conservation and

Aggregation

Page 13: What lurks in yonder shadow there? · What lurks in yonder shadow? Not a policy proposal. Remco van Mook RIPE 60, Prague May 2010 . RIPE Policy An LIR may receive an additional allocation

But what if the balance tips?

What is the cost of not being able to assign address space?

In other words:

What if “Conservation and Aggregation” gets replaced by “Unavailability”?

Page 14: What lurks in yonder shadow there? · What lurks in yonder shadow? Not a policy proposal. Remco van Mook RIPE 60, Prague May 2010 . RIPE Policy An LIR may receive an additional allocation

Cost vs Conservation

Cost

Utilization rate

80%

Conservation

Page 15: What lurks in yonder shadow there? · What lurks in yonder shadow? Not a policy proposal. Remco van Mook RIPE 60, Prague May 2010 . RIPE Policy An LIR may receive an additional allocation

Cost vs Unavailability

Cost

Utilization rate

??%

Unavailability

Margin per unit

Page 16: What lurks in yonder shadow there? · What lurks in yonder shadow? Not a policy proposal. Remco van Mook RIPE 60, Prague May 2010 . RIPE Policy An LIR may receive an additional allocation

Inside the head of your boss

“Let’s change the cover of the TPS report”

“Looks like a nice day for golf”

“I wonder what they’re doing, it’s too quiet”

“Do I smell something?”

“Why are we only using eighty percent?”

“We’re losing money! PANIC!”

Page 17: What lurks in yonder shadow there? · What lurks in yonder shadow? Not a policy proposal. Remco van Mook RIPE 60, Prague May 2010 . RIPE Policy An LIR may receive an additional allocation

Or the accountant

“With regard to the effective utilization of resources, it would appear that with an increase of capital spent up to an additional 20% of revenues in this category can be generated with current resources. It is therefore strongly recommended that the business operation in this matter is reviewed and current processes be audited and improved. Not being able to grow revenues in this product category given a lack of procurable resources is a clear business threat and should be disclosed in our public filings.”

Page 18: What lurks in yonder shadow there? · What lurks in yonder shadow? Not a policy proposal. Remco van Mook RIPE 60, Prague May 2010 . RIPE Policy An LIR may receive an additional allocation

Let’s look at address consumption

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

6-1-2000 6-1-2001 6-1-2002 6-1-2003 6-1-2004 6-1-2005 6-1-2006 6-1-2007 6-1-2008 6-1-2009

Allocated

Available IANA

Delegated RIPE NCC

Delegated ARIN

Delegated APNIC

Delegated Afrinic

Delegated LACNIC

Page 19: What lurks in yonder shadow there? · What lurks in yonder shadow? Not a policy proposal. Remco van Mook RIPE 60, Prague May 2010 . RIPE Policy An LIR may receive an additional allocation

Let’s look at address consumption

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

6-1-2000 6-1-2001 6-1-2002 6-1-2003 6-1-2004 6-1-2005 6-1-2006 6-1-2007 6-1-2008 6-1-2009

Allocated

Available IANA

Delegated RIPE NCC

Delegated ARIN

Delegated APNIC

Delegated Afrinic

Delegated LACNIC

Wasted LIR Space

Page 20: What lurks in yonder shadow there? · What lurks in yonder shadow? Not a policy proposal. Remco van Mook RIPE 60, Prague May 2010 . RIPE Policy An LIR may receive an additional allocation

Assumptions

• Large RIRs get new space from IANA when they have about 1.5 /8 of unallocated space left; small RIRs at about 0.5

• All allocated and assigned space has a utilization rate of 80%, i.e. all LIRS are entitled to request more space NOW

• No distinction is made between PA and PI

• ALL space marked ‘LEGACY’ by IANA is out of scope

Page 21: What lurks in yonder shadow there? · What lurks in yonder shadow? Not a policy proposal. Remco van Mook RIPE 60, Prague May 2010 . RIPE Policy An LIR may receive an additional allocation

Results

• There is now a minimum of 21 /8s equivalent of wasted IPv4 address space in the RIR/LIR system, as a result of the “80%” rules

• This now exceeds unallocated IANA space

• At depletion, this has increased to 25 /8s

Page 22: What lurks in yonder shadow there? · What lurks in yonder shadow? Not a policy proposal. Remco van Mook RIPE 60, Prague May 2010 . RIPE Policy An LIR may receive an additional allocation

After depletion

Unused space, in /8s

Current LIRs

New entrants

25 1

Page 23: What lurks in yonder shadow there? · What lurks in yonder shadow? Not a policy proposal. Remco van Mook RIPE 60, Prague May 2010 . RIPE Policy An LIR may receive an additional allocation

This is not an issue

.. If all of us are 100% certain

that even after depletion

this currently wasted space

will remain unusable.

And it will never get used.

Ever.

But is this a realistic assumption?

Page 24: What lurks in yonder shadow there? · What lurks in yonder shadow? Not a policy proposal. Remco van Mook RIPE 60, Prague May 2010 . RIPE Policy An LIR may receive an additional allocation

If not..

This will make all of us look bad. Really bad.

Page 25: What lurks in yonder shadow there? · What lurks in yonder shadow? Not a policy proposal. Remco van Mook RIPE 60, Prague May 2010 . RIPE Policy An LIR may receive an additional allocation

Can we fix it if we want to?

It’s not too late but we’re close.

How:

Change the utilization criterium globally

while we can still expect all active LIRs

to file at least one more request

before depletion at RIR level.

Page 26: What lurks in yonder shadow there? · What lurks in yonder shadow? Not a policy proposal. Remco van Mook RIPE 60, Prague May 2010 . RIPE Policy An LIR may receive an additional allocation

Challenge

Will the real threshold please stand up?