What is the potential for a European multi-national cross-cohorts resource 23 June 2010

Jane Elliott

Centre for Longitudinal Studies

Sub-brand to go here

CLS is an ESRC Resource Centre based at the Institute of Education

OutlineWhat cross-cohort analysis is already taking place?

What are the existing infrastructures and networks?

What are the different models for a multi-national cross cohorts resource?

Questions for discussion

Existing & potential cross-cohort analysesComparison of cohorts born at different times in order to understand

more about:-

a) Social Change

b) Durability of individual responses under different conditions

Comparison of cohorts born in different places

- environment and health issues

- labour market context

- policy context

- demographic context

Pooling of data to increase power of analyses

3

British Birth Cohort Studies

Fully representative samples of the British populationBased on one week’s births - approximately 17,000 babies Followed up from birth into adulthoodFour British Birth Cohort Studies

• 1946 : National Survey of Health and Development (MRC funded)• 1958 : National Child Development Study• 1970 : British Cohort Study 1970• 2000/1: Millennium Cohort Study

1958 & 1970 Birth Cohorts

0

711

16

23

33

4246

0

5

10

16

2630

34

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

Ag

e

Cohort Comparisons

Life cycle effects

Source: Exploring Data (C. Marsh 1988) Figure 6.1 Unemployment as a problem in Britain: actual and perceivedSource: unemployed claimant count: Employment Gazette Decembet 1982 and May 1986. Percentage naming unemployment as most or second most urgent problem facing the country: Gallup Political Index monthly.

Proportion of women in paid employment, by age and cohort

Source: Jenny Neuburger - Paper presented at CLS June 2008

Examples of research that has used British Birth Cohort data within the life course framework

The consequences of parental divorce for children• ELY, M., RICHARDS, M.P.M., WADSWORTH, M.E.J. and ELLIOTT, B.J. (1999) Secular

changes in the association of parental divorce and children’s educational attainment – evidence from three British birth cohorts. Journal of Social Policy, 28(3), 437-455

Changing levels of social mobilityBLANDEN, J., GOODMAN, A., GREGG, P. and MACHIN, S. (2004) Changes in Intergenerational

Mobility in Britain. In Corak, M (ed), Generational Income Mobility in North America and Europe. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press

Changes in women’s employment following childbirthJOSHI, H . and HINDE, P.R.A. (1993) Employment after childbearing in post-war Britain: Cohort-

study evidence on contrasts within and across generations. European Sociological Review, 9(3), 203-227

Cohabiting, marriage and fertility

STEELE, F., KALLIS, C., JOSHI, H. and GOLDSTEIN, H. (2007) Changes in the relationship between the outcomes of cohabiting partnerships and fertility among young British women: evidence from the 1958 and 1970 Birth Cohort Studies.  CLS Working Paper 2007/4. London: Centre for Longitudinal Studies

What are the existing infrastructures and networks?Two contrasting examples – Eucconet and HALCyon

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The European Child Cohort Network (EUCCONET)European Science Foundation Funding:- 5 years, from May 2008 to April

2013

Objectives• identifying cohort expertise in Europe; • sharing knowledge and experience with a broad range of

cohort experts, including from outside Europe, and establishing a forum for an easy accessible expertise on these issues in Europe;

• offering opportunities to go deeper on the cross-country comparison by sharing tools and questionnaires.

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Healthy Ageing Across the Life Course (HALCyon)HALCyon brings together an interdisciplinary group of scientists

working on nine UK cohort studies to understand three aspects of healthy ageing: physical and cognitive capability; psychological and social wellbeing; and the underlying biology of ageing

Eight work packages will investigate how factors like early development, lifetime health, personality and nutrition, and geographical movements influence the process of healthy ageing

Funded under the New Dynamics of Ageing Programme – cross council Research Programme

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Possible models for a multinational comparative cohort research resource (1)?Resource model:

Documentation emphasising common questions and themes

Data harmonisation

Single portal for information on all European cohort studies

Bibliography on existing cross-cohort research

Capacity building in cross national work

Descriptive materials and resources on historical/geographical/policy context

Opportunities for PIs of cohorts to meet and exchange information

Dedicated staff to facilitate the above and provide a resource to others

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Possible models for a multinational comparative birth cohort research resource (2)?Science-led model:

Funding specifically for cross-cohort research projects

Documentation & data harmonisation arising from projects

Website to showcase programme of work

- links to cohort studies used

- papers and working papers on funded projects

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Possible models for a multinational comparative birth cohort research resource (3)?Data collection model: European Cohort

Single centrally coordinated study

Federated studies (with a common core?)

Birth/pregnancy single cohort

Two or three cohorts starting at different ages

Science –led : specific hypotheses

Resource – led: Multipurpose resource

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Adding infrastructure to data?

Scale of European cohort could add additional benefits/infrastructure

Development of new data collection technologies

CAPI testing

Documenting and subseting data

Collection of retrospective life history data

Instrument specification

Interviewer training and acreditation

Safe settings/methodologies for links to administrative and register data

Biological specimens – storage and retrieval15

Cohorts and Panels?

Cohort

Individual focus: larger sample more focussed data collection

Cradle to Grave: biomedical focus

Initial recruitment & retention

Triangulated data – teachers, medical examinations

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Questions for discussion

What are the scientific gains to be made from a multinational comparative birth cohort research resource?

Should it focus exclusively on recent birth cohorts?

How might such a resource be structured?

What sort of resources are needed to create this?

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Website

www.cls.ioe.ac.ukPlease register for regular updates

PMS NCDS1 NCDS2 NCDS3 NCDS4 NCDS5 NCDS6 Biomedical NCDS7 NCDS8(1958) (1965) (1969) (1974) (1981) (1991) (2000) (2002-3) (2004-5) (2008-9)Birth 7 11 16 23 33 42 44-45 46 50

17,733a 16,883 16,835 16,915 16,457 15,600 15,145 12,037 11,739 12,316

Mother — Parents — Parents — Parents

School — School — School

Tests — Tests — Tests Tests

Medical — Medical — Medical — Medical

Subject — Subject — Subject — Subject — Subject — Subject — Subject — Subject — Subject

Census — Census

Spouse/ Partner Biometric measures

Consents to linkage

MothercBlood samples

Children Saliva sample

17,415b 15,425 15,337 14,647 12,537 11,407 11,419 9,349 9,534 9,793

Notesa: Target sample - Excludes emigrants, refusals & deaths. Includes immigrants at NCDS1-3.b: Achieved sample - At least on survey instrument partially completedc: Mother - Could be Cohort Member or spouse/partner

NCDS Follow-ups and sources of information 1958-2010Original sample: all living in GB born in one week in 1958

Biographical interview