What is the difference between a fad and a trend?

A question & an open space debate - March 2012

neilperkin.typepad.com

@neilperkin

In the session that I ran, I chose to speak about (amongst other things) the ability to identify the trends and shifts that really matter amongst all the noise and spikes of attention. By that I mean the ones that mean you need to adapt your strategy -

the ones that are really going to change things and make an impact.

I thought it would be a wonderful opportunity to pass on some wisdom from some truly smart people in the industry. So I stuck a blog post up asking for some

contributions that I might pass on to the graduates.

Squared is a Google-led initiative in partnership with Hyper Island and the IPA designed to address the talent shortage in digital marketing in our industry. It takes graduates at the start of their advertising and media careers through an

intensive three-month education designed to accelerate digital capabilities

What follows combines the feedback gleaned from responses to the post with that gained from an open space session ran at the event.

http://neilperkin.typepad.com/only_dead_fish/2012/03/what-is-the-difference-between-a-fad-and-a-trend.html

Trends become embedded within culture

A fad courts publicity, a trend doesn't.John Dodds, Marketing Consultant

As William Gibson said ‘the future's already here, it's just not evenly distributed’…the seeds of what is to come, and that which is enduring, already exist in more subtle, less

flashy ways, we just need to become more attuned to identifying them.Dino Demopoulos, Director, Strategic Planning, MacLaren Canada

"Don't be social - or technological - be meaningful.”Rob Campbell, Head of Planning, Wieden & Kennedy, China

"Our focus should not be on emerging technologies but on emerging cultural practices” Henry Jenkins, Director, Comparative Media Studies Program

“A fad is a discernible cultural effect and a trend is usually the underlying cause”Mark Hancock, Planning Director

“A trend is driven by something more macro (than a micro explanation), something running through the whole culture. Ask how will this [insert thing here] change us?

With what consequences?”Valeria Maltoni, Strategist, Conversation Agent

“Trends veer from the edge towards the centre (of culture, politics, society) while fads teeter on the edge, falling into obscurity.”

Gavin Heaton, Director of Social Media, SAP

Trends become embedded within culture

“Fads are elastic, in that the world returns, unchanged, to its original position once they've run their course. Fads inform campaigns.

Trends are plastic, in that the world is irrevocably changed by them. Trends inform business models”Phil Adams, Planning Director, Blonde Digital

Trends affect real change

“It's like weather versus climate: 'People tend to dramatically overestimate the effects of technology over the next 12 months but dramatically underestimate the effects of technology over the next 5 years.’”Ben Malbon, Managing Director, Google Creative Lab, New York

Trends focus on the Long-term

http://www.flickr.com/photos/11039104@N08/2926143475/

“We think of innovation as a singular thing - BIG, with a capital I. The firework. With the associated cost and lack of longevity.What matters is 'i'nnovation with a small i; a continuous stream of small ideas. It gives brands momentum. It drives business. It is built for experimentation.Long ideas are more valuable than big ideas”Gareth Kay, Chief Strategy Officer, Goodby Silverstein & Partners

Trends focus on the long-term

“A fad is a new thing that people are doing. A trend is a new *way* that people are doing.”Dave White, Comms Planner

Trends change behaviour

“This from Clay Shirky: ‘Watch young mothers, not geeks - they don't have time for anything that isn't useful.’”

Dan Thornton, Digital Consultant

To separate fad vs trend, ask: What is the ratio of buzz:behavior over time?Sean Miller, Group Planning Director, R/GA

“Fads generate excitement. Trends, just happen. The point at which i know something is a trend, and not a fad is when my mum asks me about it”

Tom Darlington, OMD

“A fad's what several people say they do in the short term. A trend's what people are actually doing in the long term”Will Humphrey, Planner, Anomaly London

“A fad repeats in entirely predictable ways once you've spotted it. A trend keeps surprising you in its creativity.”John Willshire, Founder, Smithery

http://www.flickr.com/photos/51035555243@N01/2681744739/

Trends have multiple articulations

“…the ones that produce the most noise - activity, behavior change, interest, pass along - from the lowest signal - i.e. the smallest amount of effort or input…when the platform or trend…begins to take on a usage that is different than its original intent.”Dan Weingrod, Strategist, NYC

Trends take on a life of their own

To tell the difference, you need reference points. It's not about futurology. It's about understanding now so that developments can be evaluated in context. Preparing for improvisation, if you will:

1) Obsess about people (all kinds) and why they do what they do. This way you'll know what's valuable.

2) Read, insatiably. Business & Tech, not just Marketing. Short & long, new and old - find a community of sources. This way you'll know what's interesting.

3) Play with new stuff. Share and talk about it. This way you'll know what's good.James Caig, Head of Strategy, MEC

…and now some feedback from the young talent at #squared2012

“Trends are the behaviour, fads are how the behaviour is expressed”

“Trends evolve and develop. Fads

don’t”

“Fads don’t change things. Trends do”

“A trend is a general behaviour over time. A fad is an extreme action related to that behaviour.”

“Timescale and groups: fads are short, small & divisive, trends are long, large and inclusive”

“A trend is an evolutionary behaviour, gaining momentum & cultural roots, whereas a fad is instantaneous and brief”

THANK YOU