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hat Is Geodesignand Can It Protect Us from Natural Disasters?

s New York, New Jersey and other states hit hard duringSuperstorm Sandylast fall begin their long road to recovery, the decisions they make on how to r

e crucial to determining how well theyre weather than next big storm. The choices range from installing large storm-surge sea barriersnear Staten Island

e mouth of New York Harbor to keep rising waters at bay, to cultivating wetlands around the southern tip of Manhattan that can provide a natural buffer.

oth concepts are on the drawing boards and are being fiercely debated on their merits. Although they are radically different, each one takes geographic de

to consideration to some degree. Geodesign is an approach to city planning, land use and natural resource management that takes into account the tendenc

cent years to overdevelop land at the expense of natural habitats, as well as population growth and climate change, which have left communities increasin

lnerable to natural disasters.

eodesign arose thanks largely to the availability of geographic information system (GIS) data. Such data is gathered from maps, aerial photos, satellites an

rveys and stored in large databases where it can be analyzed, modeled and queried. Particularly useful is data provided by theLandsat program, a joint

itiative between the U.S. Geological Survey and NASA, has been placing satellites in orbit since 1972 to collect GIS data.

With GIS, we have the tools to understand our landscape and [the] impact of our design decisions, says Tom Fisher, dean of the University of Minnesota

ollege of Design. As an analytical tool, GIS is more than geographical informationits a way to visualize weather, cl imate and demographic data as wel

ds.

areful study of GIS datawhich includes weather data but also takes into account population demographics, land use and a variety of other factorscoul

cover clues about the likely intensity and impact of future storms as well as the extent to which zoning decisions can mitigate potential damage, accordin

sher, the emcee and moderator of this weeksGeodesign Summithosted by GIS mapping software maker Esri at the companys Redlands, Calif., headqu

This is an issue with Sandydo we rebuild on the same sites, considering there could be another [major] storm within the next seven or so years? My sen

t that we lack data but that wevelacked the ability to visualize it and apply it to certain places, he adds.

eodesign is not entirely new, of course. After the1930sDust Bowlacross the over-farmed Great Plains, the U.S. government initiated changes in land

ltivation,Fischer says. Federal organizations such as theCivilian Conservation Corpscultivated grass on government-protected lands to keep topsoil in pl

d retain moisture. They also planted millions of trees from Canada to Texas to block wind gusts and likewise keep soil in place. Farmers were also educa

w to rotate crops, implementsoil terracingand use other more sustainable farming methods.

egardless of how New York and New Jersey decide to rebuild, geodesign projects are already underway nationwide. The city of Asheville, N.C., offers anteractive mapping tool calledPriority Placesto help local businesses determine where best to put their offices and factories, help urban planners find

ighborhoods for renewal projects and help real estate developers make decisions based on population demographics and zoning regulations. In Montana,

eYellowstone Ecological Research Centers data processing and modeling capabilities help biologists and land managers with landscape planning and

anagement of local species and their habitats. Meanwhile,Florida plannersare turning to geospatial data that reveals information about the states populat

stribution to anticipate the states needs in 2060, by which time the population is expected to have doubled to 36 million people, pl acing a heavier burden

ready overcrowded urban areas and infrastructure.

oes Increased Energy Efficiency Just Spark Us to Use More?

ast year, the U.S. raised itsfuel economy standardsfor cars and trucks for the first time in decades. By 2025, the fuel efficiency of vehicles will be require

uble. As a result, oil consumption is predicted to fall andgiven that the U.S. remains the worlds largest consumer of oilglobal crude prices might fal

ell. That makes using oil cheap again, encouraging yet more consumption that ends up reducing the energy saving impact of the initial policy.

hat is the story of the so-called rebound effect, more properly called Jevons paradox, afterW. Stanley Jevons, the British economist who first proposed

s 1865 bookThe Coal Question. Jevons paradox is undoubtedly real and has to be considered in any energy efficiency policy. After all, the last time th

ised its fuel economy standards significantly in the late 1970s, global oil prices cratered not too long thereafter in the early 1980s. Or consider the refriger

radox: freezers have become better and better at using less energy to keep food cold. As a result, many Americans now have two: a modern, efficient one

tchen for comestibles and the old fridge in the garage or basement to keep the beer cold and freeze extra supplies.

ut, although the rebound effect may be real, it is too small to derail energy-efficiency policies, argues a team of four economists in a comment published

Natureon January 24. (Scientific Americanis part of Nature Publishing Group.) Using data from theEnergy Information Administrations annual forecas

searchers estimate that the rebound effect will reduce energy savings from the new fuel efficiency standards to 5 percent from 7 percent.

he economists take care to note the distinction between direct and indirect effects. So, for example, savings on fuel leads to an increase in driving, elimina

arly a third of the efficiency savings. At the same time, money not spent on fuel is then often spent on other items that in turn require energy to produce

using an indirect drop of five to 15 percent. Finally, at the scale of the national and global economy, oil not used in cars in the U.S. will beused in cars in

hina, along with other displacement effects.

umping all these factors together, the economists estimate that total combined rebound effects [are] in the range of 20 -60 [percent]. They add: in

m,rebound effects are small.Only an economistcould argue that 60 percent is small.

onsider another modern tale: in the 1960s computing was confined to energy-hogging mainframes to which only a few people had access. Today, billionsople on the planet have much more energy efficient laptops, desktops or smartphones and rely on theconstant processing power of rack after rack of

rversfor services such as Internet search or email. As energy efficiency researcher Harry Saunders observed in aninterview with The Breakthrough Instit

The total energy use for computing is probably at least an order of magnitude greater, despite the fact that mainframes ind ividually used more power.

t the same time, individuals often ignore energy efficiency measureseven when they save moneyperhaps because of the hassle of changing a light bu

here is some evidence, however, that tapping into a more primal instinct than savingscompetitioncan spur individuals to undertake energy efficiency

mprovements. It can even be as simple as asmiley or frowny face on an electric bill.

ome argue that, over the long-term, the rebound effect actually backfires and ends up promoting even more energy use than was saved in the first place.

the argument Jevons made about coal use and, givenglobal coal consumption trends150 years later, its hard to argue with him. Or consider the rise of th

ort-utility vehicle in the 1990s after a decade of low oil prices in the 1980s. Globaloil consumption has never been higher.

ut efficiency measures do save some energy.California has kept per capita electricity use the samefor the last 30 years, despite the proliferation of gadget

ated swimming pools and air conditioners, among other modern conveniences. In fact, energy efficiency is a much better way of meeting growing deman

wer than building a new power plantas the U.S. economy has grown, efficiency has kept energy use from rising anywhere near as fast. And efficiency

http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2013/01/25/what-is-geodesign-and-can-it-protect-us-from-natural-disasters/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2013/01/25/what-is-geodesign-and-can-it-protect-us-from-natural-disasters/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2013/01/25/what-is-geodesign-and-can-it-protect-us-from-natural-disasters/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2013/01/25/what-is-geodesign-and-can-it-protect-us-from-natural-disasters/http://www.scientificamerican.com/report.cfm?id=hurricane-sandy-2012http://www.scientificamerican.com/report.cfm?id=hurricane-sandy-2012http://www.scientificamerican.com/report.cfm?id=hurricane-sandy-2012http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2013/01/25/what-is-geodesign-and-can-it-protect-us-from-natural-disasters/www.nytimes.com/2012/11/04/nyregion/protecting-new-york-city-before-next-time.htmlhttp://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2013/01/25/what-is-geodesign-and-can-it-protect-us-from-natural-disasters/www.nytimes.com/2012/11/04/nyregion/protecting-new-york-city-before-next-time.htmlhttp://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2013/01/25/what-is-geodesign-and-can-it-protect-us-from-natural-disasters/www.nytimes.com/2012/11/04/nyregion/protecting-new-york-city-before-next-time.htmlhttp://landsat.usgs.gov/about_project_descriptions.phphttp://landsat.usgs.gov/about_project_descriptions.phphttp://landsat.usgs.gov/about_project_descriptions.phphttp://design.umn.edu/about/news/from_dean_fisher/index.htmlhttp://design.umn.edu/about/news/from_dean_fisher/index.htmlhttp://design.umn.edu/about/news/from_dean_fisher/index.htmlhttp://www.geodesignsummit.com/http://www.geodesignsummit.com/http://www.geodesignsummit.com/http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=storms-on-us-plains-stir-memorieshttp://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=storms-on-us-plains-stir-memorieshttp://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=storms-on-us-plains-stir-memorieshttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/thomas-fisher/hurricane-sandy_b_2207228.htmlhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/thomas-fisher/hurricane-sandy_b_2207228.htmlhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/thomas-fisher/hurricane-sandy_b_2207228.htmlhttp://www.ccclegacy.org/http://www.ccclegacy.org/http://www.ccclegacy.org/http://www.extension.purdue.edu/extmedia/ae/ae-114.htmlhttp://www.extension.purdue.edu/extmedia/ae/ae-114.htmlhttp://www.extension.purdue.edu/extmedia/ae/ae-114.htmlhttp://gis.ashevillenc.gov/mapasheville/priorityplaces/http://gis.ashevillenc.gov/mapasheville/priorityplaces/http://gis.ashevillenc.gov/mapasheville/priorityplaces/http://www.yellowstoneresearch.org/eagles.htmlhttp://www.yellowstoneresearch.org/eagles.htmlhttp://www.yellowstoneresearch.org/eagles.htmlhttp://www.1000friendsofflorida.org/connecting-people/florida-smart-growth-advocates-2/http://www.1000friendsofflorida.org/connecting-people/florida-smart-growth-advocates-2/http://www.1000friendsofflorida.org/connecting-people/florida-smart-growth-advocates-2/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2013/01/24/does-increased-energy-efficiency-just-spark-us-to-use-more/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2013/01/24/does-increased-energy-efficiency-just-spark-us-to-use-more/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2011/11/16/can-cars-meet-the-new-54-mpg-cafe-standards-yes-they-can/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2011/11/16/can-cars-meet-the-new-54-mpg-cafe-standards-yes-they-can/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2011/11/16/can-cars-meet-the-new-54-mpg-cafe-standards-yes-they-can/http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Stanley_Jevonshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Stanley_Jevonshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Stanley_Jevonshttp://www.econlib.org/library/YPDBooks/Jevons/jvnCQ.htmlhttp://www.econlib.org/library/YPDBooks/Jevons/jvnCQ.htmlhttp://www.econlib.org/library/YPDBooks/Jevons/jvnCQ.htmlhttp://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v493/n7433/full/493475a.htmlhttp://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v493/n7433/full/493475a.htmlhttp://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v493/n7433/full/493475a.htmlhttp://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v493/n7433/full/493475a.htmlhttp://www.scientificamerican.com/http://www.scientificamerican.com/http://www.scientificamerican.com/http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/er/index.cfmhttp://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/er/index.cfmhttp://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/er/index.cfmhttp://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/er/index.cfmhttp://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=china-driving-to-the-future-of-two-billon-carshttp://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=china-driving-to-the-future-of-two-billon-carshttp://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=china-driving-to-the-future-of-two-billon-carshttp://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=china-driving-to-the-future-of-two-billon-carshttp://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v493/n7433/full/493475a.htmlhttp://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v493/n7433/full/493475a.htmlhttp://www.nature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lp combat climate change. Consider this: simplyswitching all Canadian furnaces to the most efficient natural gasones could cut that countrys(growing)

eenhouse gas emissionsby 40 percent, according to energy expert Vaclav Smil of the University of Manitoba.

he world requires a lot of power16 terawatts per year and growing. Most of that power comes from burning fossil fuels and, as a result, the greenhouse

missions driving climate change continue to swell34.7 billion metric tons of carbonand growing. Given that twin challenge, even slowing the rate of gr

a major achievementand it should be a requirement for any serious effort to combat climate change.

motional Smarts Tied to General IQ

he same brain regions that perform cognitive tasks may also provide social intelligence, according to a new study. Emotional smarts and general intelligen

ay be more closely linked than previously thought, new research suggests.

a group of Vietnam veterans,IQ test resultsand emotional intelligence, or the ability to perceive, understand and deal with emotion in oneself or in other

ere linked. And in brain scans, the same regions of the brain seemed to perform both emotional and cognitive tasks, the study found. The findings were

blished in the journal Social Cognitive & Affective Neuroscience.ntelligence, to a large extent, does depend on basic cognitive abilities, like attention and perception and memory and language," said study coauthor Aron

arbey, a neuroscientist at the University of Illinois, in a statement. "But it also depends on interacting with other people. We're fundamentally social being

r understanding not only involves basic cognitive abilities but also involves productively applying those abilities to social situations so that we can navig

cial world and understand others."

the past, scientists believed thatemotional intelligenceand general intelligence were distinct, and books and movies are rife with depictions of intellectu

illiant but socially clueless nerds.

ut Barbey and his colleagues wondered whether emotional intelligence and IQ were more tightly coupled than previously though t. To find out, the team u

motional intelligence, andintelligence testsdrawn from 152 Vietnam veterans.

arbey's team found that as IQ test scores went up so did measures of social abilities.

ext, they studied brain scans from the veterans. Participants had suffered injuries in different parts of the brain, so the researchers created a map of the bra

en broke it into tiny sections. They then compared emotional and general intelligence test results between those with and without injuries for each individ

ction.

hose with brain injuries in thefrontal cortexand the parietal cortex had impairments in both general and emotional intelligence. The frontal cortex plays ale in regulating behavior, planning and memory, while the parietal cortex plays a role in understanding language.

ow Should We Write about Statistics in Public?

am exited to be attendingScienceOnlinein Raleigh, North Carolina later this week. And Im even more excited to be co-moderating two sessions! One of

noon on Thursday, will be about Public Statistics.Hilda Bastian, my partner in crime, has written acartoonintroduction to our session, and Ive been tryi

ink of what to write here about it. There have been a lot of statistics in the news this year, from Nate Silver to the five-sigma discovery of aHiggs-like

rticleto every health story ever. Where to start?

ast week I was flipping through the Chicago Readerover breakfast one morning and came upon the article A greener Chicago would be a safer Chicago.

y sleepy morning state, my eyes glossed over the page a bit, but they latched onto a paragraph with several numbers in it. N umbers are important and obje

ght?), so the part with the most numbers in it must make a clear, convincing argument for the authors main point.

efore I share and critique this excerpt, please know that I love community gardens, and I think it would be good if there were more of them. The thesis of

ticle is that urban vegetation provides many benefits to a community, including lower crime rates. I am not arguing for or against this position; I am stepp

ck and thinking about the way statistics are used in this paragraph and whether we should take them as supporting ev idence for the articles conclusion. Int intend to insult or malign the author. I dont think he is stupid or dishonest, and the online version of the article d oes provide links to summaries of so

e studies he cites, which can help readers evaluate the claims themselves. I just think he might not have turned a skeptical eye to the statistics he quoted in

ticle and how they might be interpreted.

ithout further ado, heres the paragraph that jumped out at me:

A recent mapping of gardens [in Chicago] by University of Illinois researchers showed that the vast majority of Chicago residents2.4 million out of 2.7

illionlive in census tracts with no community gardens; that nearly half of these tracts have a poverty rate above the city average of 21 percent; and that

these low-income tracts are on the south and west sides. These are areas with many sprawling vacant lots that would benefit from farming.

hat do these numbers mean? The author is clearly trying to make a point, but to me, its a bit confused and even somewhat contradictory. Almost 90 perc

hicago residents dont live in a census tract with a community garden. But how big are census tracts? If a census tract is o nly a few square blocks, you cou

ite close to a community garden and not get counted. Perhaps a better measure would be living in a tract adjacent to a tract with a community garden, or

o tracts. From the article, it is unclear. (For what its worth, I looked it up, and it looks like my neighborhood, which is about 1.65 square miles, has 14 ce

acts in it. My census tract does not have a community garden in it, but at least one adjacent tract does, and I think Im a four-minute walk from that garden

he article continues, nearly half of these tracts have a poverty rate above the city average of 21 percent. Is that good or bad? Put another way, more thanthese tracts have a poverty rate at or below the city average of 21 percent. That sounds like a different story. But beyo nd the nearly half vs more than

sue, how should we assume poverty is distributed in the city? Do the tracts have very similar populations, or do affluent a reas have more census tracts per

pita? Overall, how many tracts have above- and below-average poverty? I honestly dont know what we should assume about this distribution, but on firs

ading, it doesnt sound too bad for about half of the census tracts to have above -average poverty. It sounds about as bad as half of our students are below

erage, a fairly meaningless but generally true statement. Furthermore, in a sample of 2.4 million out of 2.7 million citizens, we would expect the statistic

very close to the statistics for the city as a whole; only a large deviation from those numbers would be remarkable. Without information about the percen

d location of high-poverty census tracts in the city in general, we are unable to make a meaningful comparison of the areas with urban gardens t o those

thout.

oing some research for this post, it became clear to me that the author took these numbers almost word for word from theresearch paper(sorry, its Elsev

d theres a paywall) he mentioned, which includes the figures somewhat in passing and does not editorialize about the south and west sides benefitting fr

ban farming. The paper is about using Google Earth to track urban farming and get a more accurate idea of the numbers and types of urban gardens in Ch

hy does the author of the Chicago Reader piece feel the need to quote these statistics? Clearly, using numbers seems to give the argument more credibilit

s readers may well respond to numbers this way.

http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2011/06/29/why-shifting-from-fossil-fuels-to-cleaner-alternatives-will-require-fossil-fuels/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2011/06/29/why-shifting-from-fossil-fuels-to-cleaner-alternatives-will-require-fossil-fuels/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2011/06/29/why-shifting-from-fossil-fuels-to-cleaner-alternatives-will-require-fossil-fuels/http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=tar-sands-and-keystone-xl-pipeline-impact-on-global-warminghttp://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=tar-sands-and-keystone-xl-pipeline-impact-on-global-warminghttp://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=tar-sands-and-keystone-xl-pipeline-impact-on-global-warminghttp://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=tar-sands-and-keystone-xl-pipeline-impact-on-global-warminghttp://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/http://www.livescience.com/13862-intelligence-iq-tests-motivation.htmlhttp://www.livescience.com/13862-intelligence-iq-tests-motivation.htmlhttp://www.livescience.com/13862-intelligence-iq-tests-motivation.htmlhttp://www.livescience.com/20417-emotionally-intelligent-people-bad-spotting-liars.htmlhttp://www.livescience.com/20417-emotionally-intelligent-people-bad-spotting-liars.htmlhttp://www.livescience.com/20417-emotionally-intelligent-people-bad-spotting-liars.htmlhttp://www.livescience.com/13862-intelligence-iq-tests-motivation.htmlhttp://www.livescience.com/13862-intelligence-iq-tests-motivation.htmlhttp://www.livescience.com/13862-intelligence-iq-tests-motivation.htmlhttp://www.livescience.com/22570-decisions-control-frontal-lobe.htmlhttp://www.livescience.com/22570-decisions-control-frontal-lobe.htmlhttp://www.livescience.com/22570-decisions-control-frontal-lobe.htmlhttp://blogs.scientificamerican.com/roots-of-unity/2013/01/27/statistics-in-public/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/roots-of-unity/2013/01/27/statistics-in-public/http://scio13.wikispaces.com/http://scio13.wikispaces.com/http://scio13.wikispaces.com/http://scio13.wikispaces.com/Session+2Ghttp://scio13.wikispaces.com/Session+2Ghttp://scio13.wikispaces.com/Session+2Ghttps://twitter.com/hildabasthttps://twitter.com/hildabasthttps://twitter.com/hildabasthttp://statistically-funny.blogspot.com/2013/01/fright-night-in-doctors-lounge.htmlhttp://statistically-funny.blogspot.com/2013/01/fright-night-in-doctors-lounge.htmlhttp://statistically-funny.blogspot.com/2013/01/fright-night-in-doctors-lounge.htmlhttp://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2012/07/17/five-sigmawhats-that/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2012/07/17/five-sigmawhats-that/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2012/07/17/five-sigmawhats-that/http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qzqIHj4uGIhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qzqIHj4uGIhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qzqIHj4uGIhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qzqIHj4uGIhttp://www.chicagoreader.com/Bleader/archives/2013/01/10/a-greener-chicago-would-be-a-safer-chicagohttp://www.chicagoreader.com/Bleader/archives/2013/01/10/a-greener-chicago-would-be-a-safer-chicagohttp://www.chicagoreader.com/Bleader/archives/2013/01/10/a-greener-chicago-would-be-a-safer-chicagohttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016920461200237Xhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016920461200237Xhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016920461200237Xhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016920461200237Xhttp://www.chicagoreader.com/Bleader/archives/2013/01/10/a-greener-chicago-would-be-a-safer-chicagohttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qzqIHj4uGIhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qzqIHj4uGIhttp://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2012/07/17/five-sigmawhats-that/http://statistically-funny.blogspot.com/2013/01/fright-night-in-doctors-lounge.htmlhttps://twitter.com/hildabasthttp://scio13.wikispaces.com/Session+2Ghttp://scio13.wikispaces.com/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/roots-of-unity/2013/01/27/statistics-in-public/http://www.livescience.com/22570-decisions-control-frontal-lobe.htmlhttp://www.livescience.com/13862-intelligence-iq-tests-motivation.htmlhttp://www.livescience.com/20417-emotionally-intelligent-people-bad-spotting-liars.htmlhttp://www.livescience.com/13862-intelligence-iq-tests-motivation.htmlhttp://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=tar-sands-and-keystone-xl-pipeline-impact-on-global-warminghttp://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=tar-sands-and-keystone-xl-pipeline-impact-on-global-warminghttp://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2011/06/29/why-shifting-from-fossil-fuels-to-cleaner-alternatives-will-require-fossil-fuels/

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his article is not an isolated incident. Statistics are used and misused all over newspapers, magazines, and the Internet. And theyre necessary. W ithout the

ience papers cant accurately describe the size of an effect or the probability that it was due purely to chance, and reporters cant let people know what a n

udy means. How can we, as bloggers, reporters, and editors, increase the quality of statistics reporting in the media? And what should the media consume

t for when reading these stories?

youre going to ScienceOnline, I cordially invite you to come talk about statistics with us. Well be talking about our statistics reporting pet peeves, how

rite about statistics responsibly without boring our readers, and resources for those of us who would like a refresher course in what all those numbers in sc

pers mean. Well also talk about some of the biggest stories in statistics from the past year and where the media got statistics right and wrong.

hether youll be at the session or not, feel free to share your public statistics pet peeves, resources, and requests for resources in the comments. You can f

ong with our session on Twitter on Thursday. Well be using the hashtag #PublicStats. The hashtag for the (un)conference it self is #scio13.

nally, if you have access to some data about the distribution of poverty in Chicago census tracts, I would love to learn about it!

cience in Ten Hundred Words: The Up-Goer Five challenge.

central question of communicating science to a wider audience often boils down to this: can you take a complex scientific topic and explain it in a way th

meone unfamiliar with the field can understand? The commonly-cited techniques for meeting this challenge, such as cutting out jargon and using relatabl

alogies, sound easy in principle but are often quite tough in practice.

rhaps that is why theUp-Goer Five text editor, created bygeneticist Theo Sanderson, has struck such a cord with many scientists, including me and my c

ogger Anne Jefferson. Inspired bya brilliant xckd comicthat took the elimination of jargon to an almost absurd degree by attempting to describe the blue

the Saturn V moon rocket using only a list of the most thousand commonly used English words (hence, Up Goer Fivethe only flying space car that ha

ken anyone to another world), the text editor compares anything that you type into it against that same list and gently ch ides you when you use a word th

nt on it.

nne and I were not the first scientists to discover the Up-Goer Five editor, butwhen we blogged about our attemptsto describe urban hydrology (without

tream or river), and paleomagnetism (without magnet), and challenged other scientists to try their hand at describing what they do in Up-Goer Five-sp

e were inundated with responsesso many that to record them all for posterity, and to allow future entries to be more easily collected, we set up a dedica

umblr blog called Ten Hundred Words of Science to showcase them all.

just over a week, it has accumulated almost three hundred entries, with subjects ranging from string theory (the different kinds of bits we see come frome kind of wrapped long thing moving in different ways) to cognitive science (I study what it is about human minds that allows us to speak to each othe

a volcanology (Tiny pieces of fire rock from inside the world can fly through the air), plate tectonics (Even though the ground under your feet feels ve

ll, it is actually moving really, really slowly), nanotechnology (Ifyou take a big thing and make it small, it does something different than what youd

pect) and everything else in between.

ome might not see this as anything more than a gimmick, and argue that the constraints you are forced to work under are too severe; that by replacing jarg

th a dense thicket of simple words, you are just replacing one sort of linguistic complexity with another. That certainly can happen, but only if you miss

int of the exercise.

hat the vast majority of the submissions weve read in the past week clearly show is that if you seek to move beyond the straight replacement of forbidde

ords and seek to recast the concept youre trying to explain, then something quite profound can result. Here for example, is Darwins theory of evolution

tural selection,distilled down to its essence by Richard Carter:

the animals and green things we see in the worldhave all been made by the same, fixed, easy steps acting all around us. These easy steps, taken in the

rgest sense, being growing and having babies; being like your parents (but not exactly like them); and being able to avoid dying for as long as possible.

the unifying theorem of all biology can be so vividly described despite the limitations being imposed by the Up-Goer 5 list, then I think we can find it wil of us to do the same with our own research. I certainly feel that my own attempt to recast the magnetic signals I study as memories of past locations stor

thin the rocks, that they can give us if we ask them in the right way, did give me some insight into explaining what I do. AsAnne remarked:

many ways, I think telling people that you study little green things that lived more than 10 hundred times 10 hundred years ago gives more of a sense o

ormity of geologic time in a palpable way than saying that you study organisms that lived more than a million years ago

I think this is a great vehicle for getting us to be thoughtful about the way we explain our work to each other and to non-scientists. It definitely takes mor

ought to distill a complex topic down to a jargon-free explanation of the core principles and why they are exciting. And sometimes it takes more words. B

e end, if it helps people to understand what science is all about, then that effort and those carefully chosen words are totally worthwhile.

s such, we hope that people continue totake the challenge, and submit them toTen Hundred Words of Science. Because youre not just explaining someth

other peopleyoure also explaining it to yourself.

And if you want a slightly less stringent vocabulary to work with, then Theo Sanderson has now come up withUp-Goer Six, an editor that colour codes yo

ords based on their frequency of usage, rather than rejecting them outright.

op 25 Science Stories of 2007

he past year has been both tempestuous and excitingfrom pet food,E. coli and toy poisoning scares to political fireworks over embryonic stem cell rese

forest fires ravaging California. A controversial Nobel scientist (James Watson) went down in a blaze of infamy, tumbling from grace after putting his fo

s mouth one time too many, whereas a former vice president and defeated presidential candidate (Al Gore) rose from the ashes to become a Nobel Peace p

nd Oscar) winner for raising awareness on the urgency ofglobal warming. The honor came on the heels of official worldwide recognition that climate cha

not only a pressing problem, but one that was almost completely caused by humansand one, too, that humans must fix.

n a related note, we discovered that the North Pole is melting, beloved freshwater dolphins are practically extinct andnuclear powerfeared since the 19

ar-meltdown of the Three Mile Island nuke plant in Middletown, Pa.has become the clean-energy alternative du jourthat even has the backing of some

viros. For the first time, too, we enjoyed (depending on how you look at it) an extra month of daylight saving time, thanks to Congress, which made the m

save energy and, lawmakers said, to cut down on traffic accidentsand, perhaps most important, to make Halloween more special and safe.

as, 2007 was the year in which hopes were dashed that human growth hormone might be the key to eternal youth. It was also when parents everywhere b

armed as school kids began contracting an antibiotic-resistant superbug (MRSA), and air travelers found themselves wondering whether their fellow pass

rbored serious contagious illnesses after it was revealed that a man with a virulent form of tuberculosis flouted official warnings to stay home, instead fly

http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2013/01/27/science-in-ten-hundred-words-the-up-goer-five-challenge/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2013/01/27/science-in-ten-hundred-words-the-up-goer-five-challenge/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2013/01/27/science-in-ten-hundred-words-the-up-goer-five-challenge/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2013/01/27/science-in-ten-hundred-words-the-up-goer-five-challenge/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2013/01/27/science-in-ten-hundred-words-the-up-goer-five-challenge/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2013/01/27/science-in-ten-hundred-words-the-up-goer-five-challenge/http://splasho.com/upgoer5/http://splasho.com/upgoer5/http://splasho.com/upgoer5/http://www.theosanderson.com/http://www.theosanderson.com/http://www.theosanderson.com/http://xkcd.com/1133/http://xkcd.com/1133/http://xkcd.com/1133/http://all-geo.org/highlyallochthonous/2013/01/explaining-geoscience-using-only-the-10-hundred-most-common-words/http://all-geo.org/highlyallochthonous/2013/01/explaining-geoscience-using-only-the-10-hundred-most-common-words/http://all-geo.org/highlyallochthonous/2013/01/explaining-geoscience-using-only-the-10-hundred-most-common-words/http://tenhundredwordsofscience.tumblr.com/http://tenhundredwordsofscience.tumblr.com/http://tenhundredwordsofscience.tumblr.com/http://tenhundredwordsofscience.tumblr.com/post/41440710615/things-are-made-of-small-bits-some-of-the-bitshttp://tenhundredwordsofscience.tumblr.com/post/41440710615/things-are-made-of-small-bits-some-of-the-bitshttp://tenhundredwordsofscience.tumblr.com/post/41440710615/things-are-made-of-small-bits-some-of-the-bitshttp://tenhundredwordsofscience.tumblr.com/post/41440710615/things-are-made-of-small-bits-some-of-the-bitshttp://tenhundredwordsofscience.tumblr.com/post/41440710615/things-are-made-of-small-bits-some-of-the-bitshttp://tenhundredwordsofscience.tumblr.com/post/41440710615/things-are-made-of-small-bits-some-of-the-bitshttp://tenhundredwordsofscience.tumblr.com/post/40837180186/i-study-what-it-is-about-human-minds-that-allowshttp://tenhundredwordsofscience.tumblr.com/post/40837180186/i-study-what-it-is-about-human-minds-that-allowshttp://tenhundredwordsofscience.tumblr.com/post/40837180186/i-study-what-it-is-about-human-minds-that-allowshttp://tenhundredwordsofscience.tumblr.com/post/40837180186/i-study-what-it-is-about-human-minds-that-allowshttp://tenhundredwordsofscience.tumblr.com/post/40814650184/tiny-pieces-of-fire-rock-from-inside-the-world-canhttp://tenhundredwordsofscience.tumblr.com/post/40814650184/tiny-pieces-of-fire-rock-from-inside-the-world-canhttp://tenhundredwordsofscience.tumblr.com/post/40814650184/tiny-pieces-of-fire-rock-from-inside-the-world-canhttp://tenhundredwordsofscience.tumblr.com/post/40814650184/tiny-pieces-of-fire-rock-from-inside-the-world-canhttp://tenhundredwordsofscience.tumblr.com/post/40814650184/tiny-pieces-of-fire-rock-from-inside-the-world-canhttp://tenhundredwordsofscience.tumblr.com/post/40920685907/even-though-the-ground-under-your-feet-feels-veryhttp://tenhundredwordsofscience.tumblr.com/post/40920685907/even-though-the-ground-under-your-feet-feels-veryhttp://tenhundredwordsofscience.tumblr.com/post/40920685907/even-though-the-ground-under-your-feet-feels-veryhttp://tenhundredwordsofscience.tumblr.com/post/40920685907/even-though-the-ground-under-your-feet-feels-veryhttp://tenhundredwordsofscience.tumblr.com/post/40920685907/even-though-the-ground-under-your-feet-feels-veryhttp://tenhundredwordsofscience.tumblr.com/post/40920685907/even-though-the-ground-under-your-feet-feels-veryhttp://tenhundredwordsofscience.tumblr.com/post/41281268006/my-work-is-about-studying-really-small-things-ithttp://tenhundredwordsofscience.tumblr.com/post/41281268006/my-work-is-about-studying-really-small-things-ithttp://tenhundredwordsofscience.tumblr.com/post/41281268006/my-work-is-about-studying-really-small-things-ithttp://tenhundredwordsofscience.tumblr.com/post/41281268006/my-work-is-about-studying-really-small-things-ithttp://tenhundredwordsofscience.tumblr.com/post/41281268006/my-work-is-about-studying-really-small-things-ithttp://tenhundredwordsofscience.tumblr.com/post/41281268006/my-work-is-about-studying-really-small-things-ithttp://tenhundredwordsofscience.tumblr.com/post/41281268006/my-work-is-about-studying-really-small-things-ithttp://friendsofdarwin.com/2013/01/20130119/http://friendsofdarwin.com/2013/01/20130119/http://friendsofdarwin.com/2013/01/20130119/http://all-geo.org/highlyallochthonous/2013/01/ten-hundred-words-of-science-spreads-like-wildfire-and-gets-a-tumblr/http://all-geo.org/highlyallochthonous/2013/01/ten-hundred-words-of-science-spreads-like-wildfire-and-gets-a-tumblr/http://all-geo.org/highlyallochthonous/2013/01/ten-hundred-words-of-science-spreads-like-wildfire-and-gets-a-tumblr/http://splasho.com/upgoer5/http://splasho.com/upgoer5/http://splasho.com/upgoer5/http://tenhundredwordsofscie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aly to get married. It was the year, too, when an American pastime became an American tragedya report on steroid use by pro baseball players revealed

en sports heroes are flawed.

he past year was one filled with mysteries as well, such as disappearing honeybees and the fate of famed computer scientist James Gray, who departed one

y from San Francisco on a sailing trip never to be seen again, despite a massive, high-tech all-out search by friends and colleagues. There were ethical

lemmas that came to light, too, such as the decision by the parents of a severely disabled girl dubbed "Pillow Angel," who, after consulting a panel of doc

d ethicists, decided to have their daughter undergo surgery to stunt her growth, thereby keeping her small so that they could continue to care for her

emselves.

ut there were also some exciting new developments and discoveries: human skin cells were transformed tostem cells; primates came within a hair of bein

ccessfully cloned; scientists found that if they killed the virus behind some cancers, they might also kill thecancer; the discovery of a new planet with the

arth-like characteristics yet observed; and, the unveiling of the first quantum computer. On the political science front, Libya finally freed five Bulgarian nu

d a Palestinian doctor, each of whom had served eight years of life sentences for allegedly deliberately infecting hundreds of Libyan children with HIV, d

idence of their innocence. And who could forget the long-awaited debut of the Apple iPhoneand the dramatic price cut for the nifty new device that so

llowed, angering early purchasers? Or robots sent in to help in the fruitless search for trapped miners after a deadly Utah mine collapse? Or the first wirel

wer transmission?

here was some promising genetic news on autism, Parkinson's and other elusive disorders, not to mention the discovery that Neandertals may well have sp

d, what's more, may have been redheads. Plus, 2007 is the year that getting parts of one's own genome mapped became as simple as plunking down a few

ndred bucks (closer to $1,000, but still).

ate of the Science: Beyond the Worst Case Climate Change Scenario

he IPCC has declared man-made climate change "unequivocal." The hard part: trying to stop it. Climate change is "unequivocal" and it is 90 percent certa

e "net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming," the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)a panel of more than 2,

ientists and other expertswrote in its first report on the physical science ofglobal warmingearlier this year. In its second assessment, the IPCC stated th

man-induced warming is having adiscernible influence on the planet, from species migration to thawing permafrost. Despite these findings, emissions of

eenhouse gases driving this process continue to rise thanks to increased burning offossil fuelswhile cost-effective options for decreasing them have not b

opted, the panel found in itsthird report.he IPCC's fourth and final assessment of the climate change problemknown as the Synthesis Reportcombines all of these reports and adds that "warm

uld lead to some impacts that are abrupt or irreversible, depending upon the rate and magnitude of the climate change." Although countries continue to de

e best way to address this finding, 130 nations, including the U.S., China, Australia, Canada and even Saudi Arabia, have concurred with it.

The governments now require, in fact, that the authors report on risks that are high and 'key' because of their potentially very high consequence," says econ

ary Yohe, a lead author on the IPCC Synthesis Report. "They have, perhaps, given the planet a chance to save itself."

mong those risks:

arming TemperaturesContinued global warming is virtually certain (or more than 99 percent likely to occur) at this point, leading to both good and b

mpacts. On the positive side, fewer people will die from freezing temperatures and agricultural yield will increase in colder areas. The negatives include re

op production in the tropics and subtropics, increased insect outbreaks, diminishedwatersupply caused by dwindling snowpack, and increasingly poor ai

ality in cities.

eat WavesScientists are more than 90 percent certain that episodes of extreme heat will increase worldwide, leading toincreased danger of wildfires, h

aths and water quality issues such as algal blooms.

eavy RainsScientific estimates suggest thatextreme precipitation eventsfrom downpours to whiteoutsare more than 90 percent likely to become m

mmon, resulting in diminished water quality and increased flooding, crop damage, soil erosion and disease risk.

roughtScientists estimate that there is a more than 66 percent chance thatdroughtswill become more frequent and widespread, making water scarcer, u

e risk of starvation through failed crops and further increasing the risk of wildfires.

ronger StormsWarming ocean waters will likely increase the power oftropical cyclones(variously known as hurricanes and typhoons), raising the ris

man death, injury and disease as well as destroyingcoral reefsand property.

odiversityAs many as a third of the species known to science may be at risk ofextinctionif average temperatures rise by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius

a Level RiseThe level of the world's oceans will rise, likely inundating low-lying land, turning freshwater brackish and potentially triggering widespre

igration of human populations from affected areas.

As temperatures rise, thermal expansion will lead to sea-level rise, independent of melting ice," says chemical engineer Lenny Bernstein, another lead auth

e recent IPCC report. "The indications are that this factor alone could cause serious problems [and] ice-sheet melting would greatly accelerate [it]."

uchice-sheet melting, which the IPCC explicitly did not include in its predictions of sea-level rise, has already been observed and may be speeding up,

cording to recent research that determined that the melting of Greenland's ice cap has accelerated to six times the average flow of the Colorado River. Res also shown that the world has consistently emitted greenhouse gases at the highest projected levels examined and sea-level rise has also outpaced proje

om the IPCC's last assessment in 2001.

We are above the high scenario now," says climatologist Stephen Schneider of Stanford University, an IPCC lead author. "This is not a safe world."

ther recent findings include:

arbon Intensity IncreasingThe amount of carbon dioxide per car built, burger served or widget sold had been consistently declining until the turn of th

ntury. But since 2000,CO2 emissions have grownby more than 3 percent annually. This is largely due to the economic booms in China and India, which

polluting coal to power production. But emissions in the developed world have started to rise as well, increasing by 2.6 percent since 2000, according to

ports made by those countries to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technolog

cently argued that U.S. emissions may continue to increase as a result of growing energy demand.

arbon Sinks SlowingThe world'soceans and forests are absorbing lessof the CO2 released by human activity, resulting in a faster rise in atmospheric

greenhouse gases. All told, humanity released 9.9 billion metric tons (2.18 X 10 13pounds) of carbon in 2006 at the same time that the ability of the North

tlantic to take in such emissions, for example, dropped by 50 percent.

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icle.cfm?articleId=D8CBF798-E7F2-99DF-31662C07F7D8F070http://www.scientificamerican.com/topic.cfm?id=global-warming-and-climate-changehttp://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?articleId=78FCE4CE-E7F2-99DF-3991BDD7F2B57419http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?articleId=A1E03678-E7F2-99DF-349533FA77189693http://www.scientificamerican.com/topic.cfm?id=cancerhttp://www.scientificamerican.com/topic.cfm?id=stem-cell-research

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mpacts AcceleratingWarming temperatures have promptedearlier springsin the far north and have causedplant species to spread fartherinto formerly

rrain. Meanwhile,sea ice in the Arcticreached a record low this year, covering just 1.59 million square miles and thus shattering the previous 2005 minim

2.05 million square miles.

The observed rate of loss is faster than anything predicted," says senior research scientist Mark Serreze of the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center in

oulder, Colo. "We're already set up for another big loss next year. We've got so much openwaterin the Arctic now that has absorbed so much energy ove

mmer that the ocean has warmed. The ice that grows back this autumn will be thin."

he negative consequences of such reinforcing, positive feedbacks (white ice is replaced by dark water, which absorbs more energy and prevents the forma

more white ice) remain even when they seemingly work in our favor.

or example, scientists at the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at the University of Kiel in Germany recently discovered that plankton consumes more c

higher atmospheric concentrations of CO2. "The plankton were carbon-enriched," says marine biologist Ulf Riebesell, who conducted the study. "There w

ore of them, but each cell had more carbon."

his could mean that microscopic oceanplantsmay potentially absorb more of the carbon emitted into the atmosphere. Unfortunately, other research (from

oods Hole Oceanographic Institution) has shown thatsuch plankton does not make it to the seafloor in large enough amounts to sequester the carbon in th

ng term.

urther, such carbon-heavy plankton do not begin to appear until CO2 concentrations reach twice present values750 parts per million (ppm) in the atmosp

mpared with roughly 380 ppm presently (a level at which catastrophic change may be a certainty)and they are less nutritious to all theanimalsthat rely

em for food. "This mechanism is both too small and too late," Riebesell says. "By becoming more carbon-rich, zooplankton have to eat more phytoplankt

hieve the same nutrition" and, therefore, "they grow and reproduce more slowly."

he IPCC notes that there arecost-effective solutions, such asretrofitting buildingsfor energy efficiency, but says they must be implemented in short order

em further damage. "We are 25 years too late," Schneider says. "If the object is to avoid dangerous change, we've already had it. The object now is to avo

ally dangerous change."

he North Pole Is Melting

he permanent Arctic ice cap dwindled to a record low this week, presaging a future of a summertime Northwest Passage and obscuring fog. Tis the season

e Arctic when the sun disappears below the horizon and twilight replaces daylight. Temperatures drop andicethat melted throughout the Arctic summer bcover the world's northernmost ocean again. Scientists have used satellite pictures since 1979 to map the extent of such ice at its minimum, and the pictu

ar isn't pretty. Covering 1.59 million square miles (4.12 million square kilometers), this summer's sea ice shattered the previous record for the smallest ic

2.05 million square miles (5.31 million square kilometers) in 2005a further loss of sea ice area equivalent to the states of California and Texas combin

The sea ice cover this year has reached a new record low," says Mark Serreze, senior research scientist at the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center in

oulder, Colo. "It's not just that we beat the old record, we annihilated it."

s a result of atmospheric patterns that both warmed the air and reduced cloud cover as well asincreased residual heatin newly exposed ocean waters, such

elting helped open the fabled Northwest Passage for the first time [see photo] this summer and presaged tough times for polar bears and other

rcticanimalsthat rely on sea ice to survive, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Such precipitous loss of ice cover far outpaces anything climate mo

ientists have predicted.

his new record low continues the trend of steadily shrinking summer sea ice. "We're already set up for a big loss next year," Serreze notes. "We've got so

enwaterin the Arctic right now that has absorbed so much energy over the summer that the ocean has warmed. The ice that grows back this autumn will

in."

fact, a German expedition on the icebreaker Polarstern has revealed that existing Arctic sea ice in the center of the ice cap is only about three feet (one m

ick, 50 percent thinner than it was just six years ago. As a result, more melt water is mixing with the salty seawater and pulses of warmer Atlantic seawat

ve intruded into the Arctic Ocean.

hereas theSouth Poleremains protected by differing geographic, atmospheric and oceanic conditions, the North Pole is undergoingrapid change not seen

ast 6,000 years and perhaps as much as 125,000 years, and which may spread to lower latitudes. "It is reasonable to think that if you lose the sea ice cover

going to have an impact elsewhere, in the midlatitudes," Serreze says. Somemodeling studiesof such effects have suggested drought in the western U.S.

anges in precipitation patterns across Europe.

rreze expects the ice will bounce back somewhat next year, if only because he cannot imagine it shrinking any more so swiftly. But ice-free summers in t

rctic may become the norm in the near future. "At this point, I'd say the year 2030 is not unreasonable" for a summer without sea ice in the Arctic, Serreze

Within our lifetimes and certainly within our children's lifetimes."

hen that occurs, the Arctic Ocean may become aspooky, foggy place, haunted by diminished populations of spectrally thin polar bears clinging to life in

sidual habitat. "It's going to be a different world," Serreze notes. "The observed rates of change have far outstripped what we projected."

ombating Climate Change: Farming Out Global Warming Solutions

hanges to agricultural practice and forestry management could cut greenhouse gas emissions, buying time to develop alternative technologies. Saving the

uld slow climate change, new research shows. Each year, nearly 33 million acres of forestland around the world is cut down, according to the Food and

griculture Organization of the United Nations. Tropical felling alone contributes 1.5 billion metric tons of carbonsome 20 percent of all man-made

eenhouse gas (GHG) emissionsto the atmosphere annually. If such losses were cut in half, it could save 500 million metric tons of carbon annually and

ntribute 12 percent of the total reductions in GHG emissions required to avoid unpleasantglobal warming, researchers recently reported in Science.

orest depletion ultimately contributes more GHG emissions than all the cars and trucks in use worldwide, says Werner Kurz, a forest ecologist with Natur

esources Canada, who was not involved with the study. "What we are doing in these tropical forests is really a massive problem."

hanges in forest management and agricultural practices could significantly reduce the threat of global warming much more quickly than can technological

lutions such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) from coal-fired powerplants, according to experts. "We don't know how to do CCS. These are things w

uld do today," says Bruce McCarl, an agricultural economist at Texas A&M University in College Station. "They are a bridge to the future."

mong proposed changes: more widespread adoption of so-called no-till farming, a practice that involves leaving unharvested crop stalks and other plant m

hind in the field undisturbed by plows and other soil-agitating instruments. "Anything that reduces soil disturbance increases carbon storage," McCarl no

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asically, the carbon stored inside the remains sinks into the soil instead of being stirred up and into the atmosphere when the soil is prepared for planting u

nventional means. Such no-till farming provides a double benefit for farmers: improved soils and reduced fuel use, because it negates the need to harvest

alks with tractors and other equipment (although it can lead to short-term reductions in crop yields) says Chuck Rice, a soil scientist at Kansas State Unive

Manhattan, Kan.

he opportunity to pour carbon back into the soil exists because farming over the past century has depleted its levels of organic carbon, Rice notes. But, as

thwater, the soil can only hold so much carbon before it is saturated. "Sequestration could be provided for the next 30 to 50 years, " before the soil will re

limit and other actions will be needed, he says.

rowing crops for fuelknown as biofuelsrepresents another potential way of cutting GHGs by replacingfossil fuels(biofuels created underground by n

er millions of years). "Biofuel production also shows promise for directly offsetting some reliance on fossil fuels," says Stephen Ogle, an ecosystem rese

ientist at Colorado State University in Fort Collins. "This represents a direct reduction in emissions from the current trends, because dedicated energy cro

ll reassimilate some of the carbon dioxide emitted by energy use."

uch changes, however, are not without peril. They could lead to higher food prices as well as to converting marginal lands back into crop production, whic

ould, in turn, lead to GHG emissions. Further, pursuing cellulosic ethanol (a biofuel brewed from stalks and other leftover plant material) could eliminate

me remnantsand, therefore, their carbon storage potentialthat no-till practices would otherwise sequester, Rice adds, noting that the risks and benefit

y solutions must be carefully weighed.

here are some radical (and less likely) solutions as well, given that more than half of U.S. acreage is used to produce animal feed. "If we really want to sol

orld greenhouse gas problem, we will all become vegetarians," McCarl says, pointing out that it takes seven pounds of feed to raise a pound of beef, 1.4 p

r chickens and three pounds of feed per pound of hog. "If everyone was a vegetarian," he says, "then you could farm a lot l ess acreage."

adopted, this significant lifestyle change would also cut down on another animal problem: waste. Cow, pig and chicken excrement fester in lagoons, emit

ethanea short-lived but potent GHG. On the other hand, capturing that methane also offers an opportunity to create electricity. Biodigesters (covered ta

at employ bacteria to break down animal waste) produce abundant methane, says Albert Morales, executive vice president of Environmental Power, a pur

such systems. "The gas goes to a generator,'' he explains, "that generates power for the [electricity] grid."

conomists and other experts argue that offsetting coal-fired electricity generation may be the most promising use of such agricultural and forestry biofuels

hile roughly 20 percent of the carbon in corn, for example, is recycled if turned into the motor fuel ethanol, as much as 95 percent of the carbon in the whrn plant can be recycled if burned in electric powerplants, McCarl says.

he pulp and paper industry, which creates large amounts of waste, is already ut ilizing such carbon recycling and generation. In fact, such manufacturers ha

come net exporters of energy in Canada by burning residue wood. This kind of efficiency could reduce GHG emissions in the U.S. alone "in the neighbo

300 million metric tons on an annual basis," McCarl says, "principally from burning biofuels for electricity and [from] forest management."

orest management is the linchpin of any effort to combat climate change in these sectors, contributing the largest share of greenhouse gases. And it will no

simple as building a fence around the world's forests. "We need to understand the dual role of forests of storing carbon and providing carbon to serve soc

eds," Natural Resources Canada's Kurz says. "Choosing wood-based products has a much lower fossil fuel footprint than using some other building mate

ch as concrete.

Scandinavia, for example, forests cover more land now than in the previous centurythus increasing their carbon storagewhile still being regularly

rvested. "The more we can prolong the storage of wood products in human structures, the longer the carbon is kept out of the atmosphere. When we do g

it, we should burn it to offsetfossil fuels, part of a cascading system of multiple uses," Kurz says. "Good forest management is typically also good carbo

anagement."

imate Changing Pollution RisingAgain

or years, emissions of greenhouse gases in developed countriesand throughout the worldhave been going down while economic activity increased. Ev

e economies of the U.S. and European Union continued to grow, the amount of carbon dioxide (CO 2) per car built, burger served or widget sold was on th

cline. No more. "It appears that the carbon intensity of economic activity has stopped improving," says Chris Field, director of t he Carnegie Institution of

ashington's Department of Global Ecology in Stanford, Calif. "Each dollar of economic activity is requiring more rather than less carbon, which reverses

ng-term trend."

fact, the growth of CO2 emissions tripled between 2000 and 2004growing by more than 3 percent per yearaccording to a new study published

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA. From 1990 to 1999, emissions growth had averaged a little over 1 percent per year. (Researchers

eir findings on data from the U.S. Department of Energy, the United Nations Statistics Division and the International Monetary Fund.)

arbon dioxide is responsible for trapping roughly 63 percent of the extra heat blamed forglobal warming. By 2005, emissions from man-made fossil fuel

mbustion had reached 7.9 billion metric tons per year (or 1.7 x 1013 pounds), according to the Global Carbon Project (GCP)an Australia-based research

nsortium devoted to analyzing the problem.

eveloping countries such as China and India, which have experienced economic booms, are leading the charge in increasing CO2 emissions. Although theurope and other developed countries have contributed 77 percent of the cumulative emissions since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution in the 19th centu

veloping nations were responsible for 73 percent of the total growth in 2004 alone. "Basically, the increase reflects a surge in economic activity," Field sa

There is a tight link between economic activity and energy use." In other words, the more widgets produced, the more energy consumedand therefore th

ore CO2 emitted.

arbon intensity is going up because countries like China are relying on the cheapest and dirtiest offossil fuelsto power their growth. "Basically, their econ

growing on coal," Field notes. But according to the U.S. Department of Energy, pollution is on the rise in the U.S. and world energy use is expected to gr

rcent by 2030, with coal being the fastest growing energy source.

udy lead author Michael Raupach, GCP co-chair and atmospheric physicist at Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization

will take economic, policy and social changes to reverse the trend, such as capturing the CO2 emitted by coal-fired powerplantsand increased internation

operation.

his is particularly true as national governments continue to strive to enhance the economic well-being of their populations. "In an era of rapidly increasing

onomic growth and increasing carbon emissions, you can't assume that we're going to continue to see improvement in carbon intensity," Field says. "We

figure out some way to get the carbon intensity of the energy system to go down."

http://www.scientificamerican.com/topic.cfm?id=waterhttp://www.scientificamerican.com/topic.cfm?id=waterhttp://www.scientificamerican.com/topic.cfm?id=waterhttp://www.scientificamerican.com/topic.cfm?id=fossil-fuelshttp://www.scientificamerican.com/topic.cfm?id=fossil-fuelshttp://www.scientificamerican.com/topic.cfm?id=fossil-fuelshttp://www.scientificamerican.com/topic.cfm?id=plantshttp://www.scientificamerican.com/topic.cfm?id=plantshttp://www.scientificamerican.com/topic.cfm?id=plantshttp://www.scientificamerican.com/topic.cfm?id=fossil-fuelshttp://www.scientificamerican.com/topic.cfm?id=fossil-fuelshttp://www.scientificamerican.com/topic.cfm?id=fossil-fuelshttp://www.scientificamerican.com/topic.cfm?id=global-warming-and-climate-changehttp://www.scientificamerican.com/topic.cfm?id=global-warming-and-climate-changehttp://www.scientificamerican.com/topic.cfm?id=global-warming-and-climate-changehttp://www.scientificamerican.com/topic.cfm?id=fossil-fuelshttp://www.scientificamerican.com/topic.cfm?id=fossil-fuelshttp://www.scientificamerican.com/topic.cfm?id=fossil-fuelshttp://www.scientificamerican.com/topic.cfm?id=plantshttp://www.scientificamerican.com/topic.cfm?id=plantshttp://www.scientificamerican.com/topic.cfm?id=plantshttp://www.scientificamerican.com/topic.cfm?id=plantshttp://www.scientificamerican.com/topic.cfm?id=fossil-fuelshttp://www.scientificamerican.com/topic.cfm?id=global-warming-and-climate-changehttp://www.scientificamerican.com/topic.cfm?id=fossil-fuelshttp://www.scientificamerican.com/topic.cfm?id=plantshttp://www.scientificamerican.com/topic.cfm?id=fossil-fuelshttp://www.scientificamerican.com/topic.cfm?id=water

7/29/2019 What is Geodesign

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elds argues the burden rests with countries like the U.S. that have the resources and technological know-how to undertake solutions, such as carbon captu

orage, which will be needed quickly. "We have to try harder to control global warming," Raupach adds. "The final judge of our efforts is the global atmos

d its judgment at present is harsh."

nal Report: Humans Caused Global Warming

he world gets a wake-up call from Paris that climate change is man-made and likely will worsen without emissions curbs. PARIS -- For the first time, a pa

imate experts has confirmed thatglobal warmingis occurring and that it is "very likely"--90 percent certain--man-made. The Intergovernmental Panel on

imate Change (IPCC), a working group of some 3,000 delegates from 113 countries, today issued its final report here on the state of climate change--and

ndings were grim. "There can be no question that the increases in these greenhouse gases are dominated by human activity," says Susan Solomon, co-chai

e working group and an atmospheric scientist with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). "Warming of the climate system

w unequivocal. That is evident in observations of air and ocean temperature as well as rising global mean sea level."

The 2nd of February in Paris will be remembered as the day that the question mark was removed from the idea that humans had anything to do with climaange," adds Achim Steiner, executive director of the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) "The focus of attention will now shift from whe

imate change is linked to human activity and whether the science is sufficient to what on earth are we going to do about it."

wealth of new data in the years between this report and the last one in 2001 provided improved accuracy and precision. For instance, thanks to a diversity

mputer models--as well as several runs of each--the scientists can now provide a best estimate for the temperature change based on a doubling of carbon

oxide (CO2) levels in the atmosphere: three degrees Celsius. This doubling is based on preindustrial levels of the most prevalent greenhouse gas--roughly

rts per million (ppm). Concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere had already reached 379 ppm in 2005.

ome of the models show an ice-free Arctic. We see more severe extremes, heat waves. We see a lot of heavier precipitation, drought increases in a lot of

gions. Tropical cyclones are projected to become more intense in a lot of areas with ongoing increases in sea surface temperatures," says Gerald Meehl, a

mospheric scientist at the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and a contributing author. "We see what we've already seen but everyt

coming a lot more extreme."

his warming would vary from place to place, with some regions experiencing far more. "The last time our polar regions of the earth were significantly wa

an they are today over an extended period occurred 125,000 years ago," Solomon notes. "At that very different time we did see reductions in the polar ice

eets that led to four to six meters (13 to 20 feet) of sea level rise." Adds geoscientist and lead author Jonathan Overpeck of the University of Arizona, somientists "drilled through an Antarctic ice sheet and it wasn't there then. That's going to be a big focus for the future."

he process of drafting this summary report proved contentious at times. For example, a sentence was ultimately removed that said man-made greenhouse g

tweigh the contribution of the sun by a factor of five. "The difference is really a factor of 10," says atmospheric scientist and lead author Piers Forster of

niversity of Leeds in England. In fact, this report, despite its gravity, represents a very conservative estimate of what may happen as a result of man-made

mate change.

uture reports from the IPCC will focus on impacts and strategies for mitigation, culminating in November in a summation of their findings. Action is alrea

ing taken: many countries have committed to reducing greenhouse gases under terms of the Kyoto Treaty; but this IPCC document represents the interna

nsensus on the state of climate science. "It's important that all governments have agreed to the conclusions of this science," notes Yvo de Boer, executive

cretary of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). "The economic costs of waiting to act will be severe."

he U.S., which emits the most greenhouse gases, has so far not accepted any form of reduction in such emissions, either as part of international efforts or

mestically. But it also acceded to this summary, saying it "summarizes the current state of climate change research and will serve as a valuable source of

formation for policymakers," according to a statement from Sharon Hays, leader of the U.S. delegation and deputy director for science at the White Hous

ffice of Science and Technology Policy.

fforts to combat climate change include proposals to mimic the natural cooling effect of volcanic eruptions or to place an enormous parasol in space to blo

nlight. "We could probably offset the effects now by having a big volcano every 10 years or so," Forster says. "You would have to do it now, you'd have

for the rest of time or until you find some other alternative. It can only ever be temporary."

ut there are other, less intrusive options. "The largest opportunity is energy efficiency," says Halldor Thorgiersson, deputy executive secretary for scientif

chnological advice at the UNFCCC. "There are also new technologies such as carbon capture and storage." Already, potential impacts of climate change s

taken into account for long-term planning, such as hydroelectric projects or sewer systems that will last a century or more, says lead author David Wratt

incipal scientist for New Zealand's National Climate Center. "Let's not do the minimum, let's put in some tolerances or at least make it so that putting [in]

pes in 50 years isn't too difficult."

is now clear that the world will undergo even more rapid changes this century if the levels of greenhouse gas emissions are not slowed. "If we were to ha

ntinued emissions at or above the current levels, the changes in the 21st century would very likely be larger than they were in the 20th century," Solomon

st as the rate of sea level