What is Churn and How Do We Tell If We’ve Got It?

Dottie Rosenbaum

June 4, 2013

cbpp.org

What is Churn?

• Eligible clients do not complete the renewal* process, typically a procedural denial, and quickly re-enroll.

• Break in enrollment is typically short – 0 to 90 days.

• No fixed churn definition – will vary by state.

* Renewal = Redetermination = Recertification = Re-evaluation

2

Churn Affects Productivity and Well-being• Families in poverty lose often lose

benefits.• Caseworkers (not always the same person)

have to spend more time keeping eligible households connected.

• Lobbies and phone linesget clogged with

unhappy former clients.

3

Possible Causes• Paperwork or verification doesn’t arrive

timely (or gets lost)• Confusion about what is required and

when• Disconnects between renewal

requirements across programs• Timeliness at Renewal not historically a

management focus• Systems set to auto-close cases on

renewal date• States are backlogged and overwhelmed• Recert. interview scheduled after end of

cert date

4

How is Churning Different in Child Care• Because it is not an “entitlement” in most

places? – People cannot always reapply. – How are waiting lists treated? When is it

counted as an application?• Impact– Loss of income to provider. – Effect on family work stability – Threat to continuity of care.

• Other?• How do those differences matter for

measurement? 5

To Understand Churn, Understand the Process • How many cases up for renewal?• How many successful with no glitch?• How many:– Did not reapply?– Reapplied but no interview (if required)?– Interview but no verification?

6

Measuring Churn

7

Can also do Analysis here

of households that reapply but were recent participants.

Analysis of procedural denial/terminations can get at root causes.

Analysis of churning re-applicants can get at workload effects and which are most likely to have been eligible all along.

Things About the Process That May Matter• State policy on renewal–What is the expected process?– Is the state processing renewals timely?– How does the state pend cases? Reopen?– Does the system “autoclose”?

• Higher level processes before a renewal is due– Length of eligibility period– Rolling renewals

8

Lets Look at Some Examples• From WSS states• For discussion purposes• Things may have changed

• My points are: – Churn may not be one thing. –May need multiple measures–Need to understand the process

9

What Share of Closures Return?

10

Lots of closed cases reapply, and do so right away.

But is this a large problem? How common are closures in general?

Are expiring certification periods included?

Panel of Illinois’ Data Dashboard

11

Why so different between denials and cancellations and across programs?

Are they defined differently? Something about the process different?

How many child care cases are cancelled?

47.6% of certification periods expire with no action.

Churning = # of procedural denials/cancellations that come back in next 3 months.

Not very many for a big state. So not a problem?

What Share of Applicants are Recent Closures?

12This gets at the workload impact on processing of new applications.

Can’t tell how many were closed for procedural reasons.

Idaho Re-evaluationsEarly Analysis:Re-evaluations

-Process-Eligibility-Timeliness-Churn

A quarter to a third of re-evaluations fail to complete. Very few people are found “substantively” ineligible.

40% (MA) to 60% (SNAP) of those who don’t complete the process reapply within 90 days.

Early Analysis:Applications

-Process-Eligibility-Timeliness-Churn

Idaho Initial Applications

These folks represent a quarter to a third of new applications.

Very few households fail to complete the initial application process.

States/Programs define Closures Differently• Colorado example – – Very few procedural closures because

pend cases they don’t get to instead of auto-closing. Then re-open with retroactive benefits (if appropriate).

• Illinois Child Care example –– 30 day “grace” period (my word). If

family doesn’t reapply by end of the month it is terminated.

– But if family contacts agency within 30 days and still eligible the case can be continued, and recoded. After 30 days family must reapply.

– Never treated as a “closure”.

15

Systems/Data Issues• Some states have

inadequate/inaccurate closure reasons.

• States may go back and recode closure reasons.

• Often eligibility systems cannot tell the whole story– Could a case file sample explore the

number of touches?– Survey clients and eligibility workers 16

Questions that May or May not Matter• Whose fault was it?• Was there a loss of benefits vs. a

delay?• Other?

17

Additional Topics• Other risk points besides renewal:– Initial application process– Change reports

• What can be done about Churn?

18