What if the future (of libraries)
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Peter Brantley Tampa Internet Archive Florida The Presidio 11.2011
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Let’s explore out some of the ramifications for libraries of the ebook market explosion.
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Let’s assume ebook market penetration
continues to grow rather rapidly.
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In fact, let’s assume that the ebook market is around an 80+ percent market in <= 5 yrs. (for trade at least) - via Mike Shatzkin, Idea Logical Co.
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Providing access to ebooks requires a
platform based service with an attractive catalog and technical infrastructure.
(‘Cuz you don’t put ebooks on shelves).
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Ebook platforms aggregate user data,
intentionality, preferences, and social information.
(Nothing inherently evil about this; it comes
with the territory).
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Overdrive is current de facto national digital
library platform for public libraries. 3M and others might present effective competition.
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Overdrive occupies a sweet spot, but it
requires sophisticated contract licensing and negotiation skills, and well-developed engineering capacity.
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Overdrive does not function solely as the
intermediary between the library and the publisher. They are also the intermediary between a reading system retailer and the publisher.
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In a manner, they sell rental access to ebooks
to nook and Kobo users, via libraries. It’s just that the libraries pick up the rental fees.
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In other words, they are in acting as a
distributor of books, just like Ingram. (In fact, in book markets, they operate
exactly like Ingram.)
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Overdrive’s ability to support EPUB, an open
standard for digital book packaging, reduces its overhead costs and permits it to serve a wide number of users and reading systems.
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When Overdrive provides access to EPUB-
format ebooks with vanilla Adobe ACS DRM, they can gather usage data across consumers with different reading systems.
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This is why Overdrive has been active in the
digital book standards community. With an open standard, they can host books
in a single format to serve multiple channels: B&N nook, Kobo, and other reading systems.
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But not everyone uses the open standard,
EPUB. Amazon uses its own Kindle format.
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In Overdrive’s new agreement with Amazon,
it is not permitted to distribute Kindle files; it’s role is deprecated to a “network switch” on catalog metadata.
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Amazon provides Kindle ebooks direct to the
library user, via the user’s Amazon account.
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The privileging of Amazon – retaining its
proprietary ebook platform and the data aggregation it generates – is prophetic.
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Overdrive, 3M, and similar vendors are not
unique in having a massive catalog of books with a technical infrastructure capable of serving public libraries.
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Both Amazon and Google have massive and
deep catalogs in digital books, international in scope. (Both companies are establishing ebook stores in other countries).
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Google’s catalog encompasses long historical
period; Amazon’s includes exclusive offerings from current authors.
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In October 2011, Pearson, a very prominent
publisher, announced a partnership with Google that provides access to a free LMS bundled with Google Apps for Education.
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It is easy to imagine a library systems vendor
(III, Sirsi, Ex Libris) partnering with Google to provide library subscription services to GBS.
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(Library subscription was one of the proposed
commercial models in the failed Google Book Search settlement proposals).
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ILS vendors could integrate GBS title access
into library catalog discovery interfaces via APIs. (They do this with the bibliographic APIs for HathiTrust and IA’s Open Library.)
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Amazon has already partnered with a library
systems vendor (that would be Overdrive). But they now also offer renting of titles, or
the lending of titles on a subscription basis, direct to consumer.
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Announced 04/11/2011, Amazon Prime
customers will get “free” borrowing for ebooks (i.e., free rental) through their subscription, just like they get access to streaming movies.
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Amazon Prime Library
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For Amazon, the loss of revenue from lending
(versus selling) is more than compensated for by increased traffic to the Amazon web site.
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That’s the value of a platform.
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You can take a “loss” on one service if you
drive increased traffic to your other services, because some of that traffic will convert.
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So where would this likely leave us?
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Like HE libraries, public libraries license
access to the majority of the electronic content that users request and expect.
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Libraries will continue to license access to
ebooks, vs. buying-to-own, because they need access to platforms.
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Amazon Prime Lending suggests that public
libraries are becoming the public hospitals of ebooks: struggling to finance support for the underprivileged through community dollars.
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Is there an alternative?
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In 10/2011, State librarians through COSLA
endorsed library participation in the Internet Archive’s Open Library lending program.
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Libraries contribute books for digitization and
lending access is provided to the participating libraries. California, North Carolina, and Kansas are already participating.
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The COSLA endorsement, while a first step,
leaves unspecified the funding sources that are required to support a large digital book database.
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It requires significant communal effort and
funding redirection & reallocation by many State and public library systems.
(DPLA seems to be vacuuming up available
private grant funding, fwiw.)
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For IA to develop a comprehensive library, it
would have to aggregate not just older <2001 digitized books, but develop an acquisition program for frontlist titles with publishers.
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Ideally by buying them. But up until now (11/2011) the purchase of
ebooks has been limited to niche distributors (Smashwords, Gale) or alternative presses.
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It is not yet obvious that publishers would
participate in public library title acquisition if there are commercial sector alternatives for lending platforms.
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Libraries would need to demonstrate that
lend does not fully substitute for purchase. I.e.,: the lending market does not greatly impinge upon the book purchase market.
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It also creates curious market issues if Open
Library successfully competes with Overdrive services via collectivization of public library interests.
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If we all band together. If we all work together. It is an interesting future.
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We cannot be confident in this scenario.
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It is not mad for libraries to “write off” ebooks
and focus on services that will be attractive in the future.
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Longer term trends suggest this. An
increasing number of things that today we call “ebooks” will turn into enhanced websites.
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“As EPUB evolves as a format it seems clear that it
would allow for more and more interactivity, more and more functionality, and still work within a broad range of web browsers and/or web-based renders and readers.”
- Brian Sandusky, Kaplan Publishing,
2011 IDPF Board candidate statement.
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You see it everywhere. Not just in Wikipedia
and cookbooks, travel guides, music scores, building codes, and most legal information.
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The Push Pop Press*’ Our Choice by Al Gore Jr
is the most beautifully designed mixed media offering to date.
(*now owned by Facebook, interestingly.)
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In other words, the market for content will
itself diminish the role and importance of books for libraries.
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This suggests that direct (e)book provisioning
by libraries, in all forms, will diminish over the long run – even as we see circulation increase today.
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This isn’t all bad.
Really, it’s true!
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It will permit libraries to invest in the things
that matter, like digital media and learning.
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It will provide added impetus for libraries to
open digital media learning centers in their communities, modeled on Chicago’s YouMedia.
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It will encourage libraries to concentrate on
community resources, such as partnerships with new local newspapers – for example, “Berkeley Side” and “Mission Local” in the Bay Area.
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It will foster investigation of personal data
archiving services and time-lining support.
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The next library: providing digital media services for
community and individual needs.
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It’s a very, very different library. But, these are different times.
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peter brantley director, bookserver project internet archive san francisco ca @naypinya (twitter)