What Future for Balochistan?

Unrepresented Nations and Peoples Organization

What Future for Balochistan? Global and Regional Challenges UNPO REPORT

What Future for Balochistan? Global and Regional Challenges © Report elaborated by UNPO in February 2013. Cover picture by Jamal Nasir Baloch

Unrepresented Nations and Peoples Organization (UNPO) Laan van Meerdervoort 70

2517 AN The Hague The Netherlands

Tel.: +31(0)70 3646504 Fax: +31(0)70 3646608

[email protected] www.unpo.org


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Table of Contents

ABBREVIATIONS ............................................................................................................... 5

FOREWORD ..................................................................................................................... 6

MAPS OF THE REGION ...................................................................................................... 7

HISTORICAL BACKGROUND .............................................................................................. 8

EARLY HISTORY .......................................................................................................................... 8

RECENT HISTORY IN IRAN ............................................................................................................ 9

RECENT HISTORY IN PAKISTAN...................................................................................................... 9

PROFILE: KHAN OF KALAT .......................................................................................................... 10

BALOCHISTAN IN THE WORLD POWER GAME ................................................................. 11

THE CONTEXT OF THE AFGHAN WAR ........................................................................................... 11

PAKISTAN AS A NUCLEAR POWER ................................................................................................ 11

U.S.A.-PAKISTAN RELATIONS..................................................................................................... 12

INDO-PAKISTANI RELATIONS ...................................................................................................... 12

SINO-PAKISTANI RELATIONS ...................................................................................................... 13

HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS ......................................................................................... 14

ENFORCED DISAPPEARANCES ..................................................................................................... 14

WOMEN’S RIGHTS ................................................................................................................... 14

NGO ACCESS TO BALOCHISTAN .................................................................................................. 15

POLITICAL DIMENSIONS ................................................................................................. 16

SECTARIAN VIOLENCE ............................................................................................................... 16

POLITICAL DISEMPOWERMENT ................................................................................................... 16

CLAIMS FOR SELF DETERMINATION ............................................................................................. 17

ELECTIONS IN 2013 .................................................................................................................. 17

PROFILE: NOORDIN MENGAL ..................................................................................................... 18

SOCIO ECONOMIC ISSUES ............................................................................................... 19

DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS OVERVIEW ....................................................................................... 19

GWADAR DEEP-SEA PORT ......................................................................................................... 19

DEMOGRAPHY ......................................................................................................................... 20

DRUG TRAFFICKING .................................................................................................................. 20

NATURAL RESOURCES ............................................................................................................... 21

NATURAL DISASTERS ................................................................................................................ 22

INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS (IDPS) ..................................................................................... 22

A WAY FORWARD AS OF 2014 ........................................................................................ 23

ABOUT THE UNREPRESENTED NATIONS AND PEOPLES ORGANIZATION (UNPO) ............... 24


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Abbreviations

FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas

HDI Human Development Index

IDP Internally Displaced Person

IPC Iran-Pakistan-China Pipeline

LeJ Lashkar-e-Jhangvi

NGO Non-Governmental Organization

NPT (Nuclear) Non-Proliferation Treaty

UNDP United Nations Development Programme

UNODC United Nations Office for Drugs and Crime

USD US Dollars


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Foreword The most dominant factor that shapes daily life in South Asia is security, or rather, the lack thereof.

Within the context of the increasingly alarming security situation in South Asia, Hamid Karzai, Asif Ali

Zardari and David Cameron urge the Taliban to join the reconciliation process in Afghanistan, Malala

Yousafzai vows to continue her campaign, and the Hazaras in Quetta refuse to bury their dead.

While the North West Frontier Province, FATA, Swat Valley and Kashmir are well-known conflict

affected areas, Balochistan, which covers part of Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan, receives little

international attention and is often overlooked in political analyses of the region. Balochistan is

nevertheless a crucial factor when trying to understand the geostrategic complexities that shape the

lives of the people in South Asia.

The curse of colonialism led Balochistan from independence to being divided and ruled by others, up

until today. With a soil rich in minerals, oil and gas, a prime location at the heart of South Asia, and a

maritime border of more than 400 km on the Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman, it comes as no surprise

that Balochistan is at the epicenter of an international power game, involving Pakistan, India,

Afghanistan, Iran, China, the U.S. and Russia, who are all playing a delicate balancing act in the region

while exposing vested interests in Balochistan.

The claims of the secular Baloch people for self-determination have been suppressed by Islamabad

for decades, leading to economic and political disempowerment and severe human rights abuses. The

talibanisation and militarisation of Balochistan have led to an increase in summary executions,

enforced disappearances and targeted killings, especially in the run-up to the Pakistani General

Elections.

Aiming at a better understanding of the global and regional security challenges South Asia, and

specifically Balochistan are facing, the Unrepresented Nations and Peoples Organization convened a

conference entitled “Global and Regional Challenges in South Asia: What Future for Balochistan?” at

the Royal Society, London, on 24 February 2013.

In light of this conference, UNPO drafted this report to provide participants with a background to the

current challenges Balochistan is facing. The report provides an extensive introduction into questions

of security, human rights violations and socio-economic development.

At the heart of the problem in Balochistan lay reasonable political and economic grievances, which

are eminently resolvable. Under Pakistan’s current system, Balochistan is unlikely to receive the policy

attention it deserves. The province has too little political representation and too few domestic allies

to sustain an agenda that could resolve the various conflicts in the province. After plenty of breaches

of treaties and deals by the Pakistan government, trust no longer characterizes the negotiations for

the Baloch people. International attention and support is therefore required to solve this ongoing

conflict that so far has only been met by violent means.

Marino Busdachin

UNPO General Secretary


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Provinces of Pakistan

Greater Balochistan


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Historical Background Current day Balochistan constitutes the Pakistani province of Balochistan, the Iranian province of Sistan and Baluchestan and the Afghan region of Balochistan. The history of Balochistan nevertheless spans thousands of years.

Early History Balochistan hosted some of the earliest human civilizations, with the Baloch people mentioned in Arabic chronicles from the 10th century AD. Mehrgarh, the earliest civilization known to mankind, is located in Eastern Balochistan and the Kech civilization in central Makuran (southern Balochistan) dates back to 4000 BC. The Arab invasion of Balochistan in the seventh century AD was amongst the most significant incursions in terms of the extensive social, religious, economic and political impact. The Arab army defeated the combined forces of Makuran and Sindh in 644 AD. During the anarchic and chaotic last phases of Arab rule, the Baloch tribes established their own semi-independent tribal confederacies, which were frequently threatened and overwhelmed by the stronger forces and dynasties of surrounding areas. This period brought Islam to the area, which was gradually embraced by Baloch tribes. During most of the 12th century southern Balochistan was under the control of the Seljuks, before the arrival of the Mughals. Before that, large parts had been under the rule of the Ghaznavids (Turkic-Persian). The British occupation of the Kalat state was a turning point, which had severe consequences for the Baloch who suffered from the partition of their land and perpetual occupation by foreign forces. By the 18th century, the Khanate of Kalat was the dominant power in

Balochistan, with the Khan of Kalat as its ruler. The British first came to Balochistan in 1839 when they sought a safe passage to invade Afghanistan. They signed a treaty with the Khan of Kalat, although he did not fully approve of its terms. A second agreement was signed in 1841, by which the Khan agreed that the British Government would station troops in Kalat, control its foreign relations and rule the State with the British Resident. The British furthermore annexed Sindh in 1843 from the Talpur Mirs, a Baloch dynasty, and the Punjab in 1849. Another treaty was imposed on the Baloch in 1876, after the British occupied Quetta. The Khan’s authority over Balochistan still remained, but under the watchful eye of a British minister. The Baloch people became further marginalised during the Anglo-Afghan wars and subsequent events in Persia, particularly in light of “the Great Game” between Tsarist Russia and the British Empire. West Balochistan was conquered by Iran in the 19th century and the partition of Balochistan by British and Persian Empires dramatically changed Balochistan’s political status as it was divided into spheres of influence. A British colonial official fixed the border that splits Iranian and Pakistani Balochistan in 1872, ceding territory to Iran's rulers in a bid to win Tehran's support against Tsarist Russia. Baloch rebellions against imperial domination occurred throughout the 19th century, including the revolt of Jask in 1873, the revolt of Sarhad in 1888 and the general uprising in 1889. A major uprising under Baloch chieftain Sardar Hussein Narui in 1896 provoked a joint Anglo-Persian expeditionary force to crush the


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struggle of the Baloch. The resistance was defeated after two years. The reign of the Pahlavi dynasty in Iran, starting with Reza Shah Pahlavi in 1925, was the beginning of a centralised state, based on Persian national identity. Western Balochistan was annexed by Iran in 1928 after the defeat of Baloch forces by Reza Shah’s army. Reza Shah Pahlavi was forced to abdicate by the Anglo-Soviet invasion of Iran in September 1941 when his son, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, became the emperor of Iran.

Recent History in Iran The Baloch Nationalist Movement in Iran was relatively low-key compared to the movement in Eastern Balochistan (in Pakistan) until the overthrow of the Shah in the Iranian Revolution 1979. Iraq attempted to destroy the revolution in its infancy and invaded Iran, marking the beginning of a bloody, indecisive war that lasted from 1980 until 1988. The death of Ayatollah Khomeini in 1989 marked a shift in Iranian foreign policy. Iran became more pragmatic and improved relations with its non-revolutionary Muslim neighbors, particularly Saudi Arabia. After the destruction of a Sunni mosque, there were a series of riots in 1994 in Zahidan, which were quelled when Revolutionary Guards fired live ammunition into the crowd. In response to popular dissatisfaction, political reform was initiated following the election of reformer Hojjat ol-Eslam Mohammad Khatami in 1997.

Recent History in Pakistan The Khanate of Kalat had been de facto independent under British rule and was forced to accede to Pakistan after Britain’s exit. In defiance of the Khan, his younger brother led a separatist

movement in 1948 against the Pakistan government, also known as the First Rebellion. He invited leading members of the Baloch political parties to join him in their struggle for the creation of an independent ‘Greater Balochistan’. The Pakistan army nevertheless invaded the region and annexed the Khanate to Pakistan. The Second Rebellion of 1958-1959 was sparked because of the implementation of the One Unit policy, a measure that decreased the federal representation of tribal leaders. In 1963-1969 the Pakistan government imposed a plan to construct military bases in these key conflict areas. This measure led to guerrilla warfare, or the Third Rebellion, by several Baloch tribes. One of their key demands was a fair share in the revenue from the local gas fields. In 1969 a ceasefire was agreed upon and the One Unit policy was abolished. In 1970, Balochistan was recognised as the fourth province of (West) Pakistan, containing all the former Baloch princely states. From 1973 until 1977, the Fourth Rebellion took place after President Bhutto abolished the provincial governments and imposed martial law, citing treason. This led to armed insurgency, with a large number of tribesmen taking part in guerrilla warfare against the central government. Until the nineties, the exile of many Baloch tribal leaders led to a political vacuum in Balochistan. The central government started focusing more on religion, in particular Sunni Islam, as a means to neutralize nationalist sentiments. In 2005, Baloch political leaders presented a 15-point agenda to the Pakistani government. Their demands included greater control of the province's resources and a moratorium on the construction of military bases.


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Profile

However, Pakistani intelligence continues to target leaders and members of the Baloch National Movement. Its president, Ghulam Mohammed Baloch, was assassinated in April 2009. The ongoing

conflict is considered as the Fifth Rebellion of the Baloch in their struggle against the oppressive policy of the Pakistan government.

Suleiman Dawood, The Khan of Kalat The Khanate of Kalat was a princely state in the center of Balochistan, which existed from 1666 to 1955. Today, his Royal Highness Khan Suleiman Dawood, the 35th Khan of Kalat, lives in political exile in the U.K. He fled Balochistan in 2007 after being targeted for speaking out against the Pakistani military’s human rights abuses. The Khan is critical of radical Islamic groups in Balochistan, often former secular separatists, who turn to the Taliban in the face of continued repression of the Baloch.


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Balochistan in the World Power Game The following chapter aims to provide an overview of the power games being played in and around Balochistan, with India, China and the USA as main players. The ongoing fight for power in South Asia has left Balochistan struggling with security, political, economic and developmental issues. Despite attempts by the Baloch themselves to find solutions, they continue to be reinforced in their position as victims in the conflict.

The Context of the Afghan War The situation in Afghanistan is closely linked to the one in Pakistan, which has been demonstrated by the American ‘Af-Pak’ policy. From the Pakistani point of view, the start of the U.S. war in Afghanistan pushed radical elements into Pakistan, which led to further destabilization of the country. After the 9/11 terrorist attacks, despite positive cooperation with the West in the war against Afghanistan, Pakistan stayed loyal to the Afghan Taliban. Most of the Taliban are Pashtuns, as are a great portion of the Pakistanis. This loyalty dates back to the post-soviet years when Pakistan offered diplomatic recognition to the Taliban regime under Mullah Omar in exchange of stability in Afghanistan and more importantly, a pro-Pakistan leadership in Kabul that denied India influence in Afghanistan. The war in Afghanistan first of all caused an influx of Pashtun refugees from Afghanistan into Balochistan, numerically marginalising the Baloch population within their own province. Secondly, the war also led to an influx of extremist militants, leading to an increased presence of paramilitary troops in the Balochistan province. However, the Baloch people are deeply reluctant to trust Pakistan for allowing the Afghan

Taliban to run their war against U.S. forces in Afghanistan from Quetta (also known as the Quetta Shura), the provincial capital. Thirdly, in the name of the so-called war against terrorism, the economic and weaponry support provided to Pakistan’s army to counter the Taliban are being used against the Baloch people in their struggle for self-determination.

Pakistan as a Nuclear Power When Pakistan launched its own nuclear energy development program in 1956 to counter the nuclear threat from India, little did Balochistan know that it would pay a heavy price in the development of these weapons. In 1998, Pakistan performed its third and fourth nuclear tests in the hills and deserts of Balochistan, which are close to populated areas. These nuclear tests have devastated the ecology of the area, especially through the contamination of water. As a result, an increase in skin diseases and physical disorders were recorded in the surrounding populations. In December 2012, suspicion rose concerning imminent nuclear tests being performed in Balochistan, with the help of Chinese experts. Several elements indicate further testing: a road has been built from Quetta to about 30km from the previous testing site and soldiers from the Pakistani army camouflaged as civilians travel on the road daily. China is currently helping Pakistan develop a civil nuclear deal, although international partners remain wary of this plan. The US has been offering assistance to Pakistan in matters of nuclear testing to ensure Pakistan respects its promises of non-proliferation – although it is important to note that Pakistan is not a


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party to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), meaning it is not bound to any restrictions.

U.S.A.-Pakistan Relations Pakistani mistrust of the U.S. has increased markedly over recent years. Many Pakistanis feel that they have been betrayed by the United States and there is a sense that the U.S. could have helped Pakistan on several occasions but chose not to do so, particularly with regard to the Kashmir conflict. The Pakistanis consider that the American and international coalition war launched against Afghanistan has pushed radical elements into Pakistan, further destabilizing the country. Pakistani officials consider U.S. interest in their country to be short-term and linked only to the situation in Afghanistan. The American point of view is also characterised by a sense of mistrust, mostly over Pakistan’s continued support to jihadist groups linked to Afghanistan and the Taliban. However, the U.S. remains cautious in comments over Pakistani actions as it strives to maintain good working relations with both China and India, two countries deeply tied to the situation in Pakistan. Recent sources of tension between the U.S. and Pakistan include American drone strikes within and launched from Pakistan, the covert American military mission in Abbottabad (which led to Osama Bin Laden’s capture and death) and the recent killing by NATO forces of 24 Pakistani military men. In February 2012, several U.S. Senators called for Balochistan’s right to independence, following a Congressional hearing hosted by Congressman Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA). These calls created further tension with the Pakistani government and forced the latter to address the issue of Balochistan.

However, both Pakistan and the U.S. are stuck in the same world game: the U.S. and the NATO coalition have counted on Pakistani cooperation throughout their military involvement in Afghanistan, especially with regard to land supply routes. At the same time, Pakistan depends on U.S. foreign aid, budgetary assistance, weapons, training and diplomatic pressure on India with regards to Kashmir. As a result, the two nations are engaged in a delicate balancing game, with the U.S. attempting to get closer to India without alienating Pakistan. In turn, Pakistan is increasingly looking at improving its relations with China.

Indo-Pakistani Relations The long history that ties Pakistan to India remains the strongest source of conflict between the two countries, with the ongoing conflict in Kashmir a particularly nasty running sore in relations. Pakistan was originally created as a state for the Muslims of British India who did not wish to live in Hindu-dominated India. Kashmir has been a disputed territory between India, Pakistan and China since 1947, with tensions rising to the point of war between India and Pakistan on four different occasions, most recently in 1999. In Pakistan, the army dictates the policy regarding India, as opposed to the government. The army’s influence on the matter has rendered Pakistan’s stance towards India very harsh and inflexible. The army considers Pakistan’s protection from India as paramount; more important than economic development for example. The Pakistani military focuses almost exclusively on security matters – and Pakistan’s policies will continue along these lines as long as the military holds


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the same amount of power within the state. Pakistan furthermore focuses on undermining Delhi’s influence in Afghanistan and curbing this influence on the rest of South Asia. India, in turn, is particularly interested in the project of a pipeline running between India and Iran, which would run through Balochistan. It is also wary of Chinese presence in Pakistan, especially regarding the Chinese control of Gwadar port in Balochistan. Most notably, Pakistan sees Delhi as a supporter of separatist movements in Balochistan. Balochistan’s strategic position with regard to location and resources has attracted much attention from international powers. For these reasons, “India […] would like to see an independent Balochistan that is either neutral or friendly to India […] and would like to use the Baloch factor as a balance in her turbulent relations with Pakistan” according to Prof Juman Khan Mari.

Sino-Pakistani Relations In recent years, Chinese influence has become a powerful force in Pakistan, much to the annoyance of India and the U.S., who both pursue a policy of containment in terms of China’s influence in the region. As part of its strategies in other parts of Asia, China has expanded its influence principally through its economic power and its position as an alternative to the “West”. China has provided military hardware and nuclear technology to Pakistan, most recently through the sale of nuclear

reactors in 2010 as part of a civil nuclear deal. A new deep-water port in Gwadar, situated in Balochistan, was built with the help of China as an important alternative to the other ports in the region, and as a closer access to the Strait of Hormuz and maritime petroleum routes. This port generates considerable revenue for the Pakistani state, of which Balochistan receives very little. According to Asian News International, Chinese companies have invested up to 15 billion USD in Balochistan, with the port in Gwadar, as well as an oil refinery and zinc and copper mines being the largest projects. Additionally, they report that the Iran-Pakistan-China (IPC) pipeline is planned to run through the Khunjerab pass (in Gilgit Baltistan) to Xinjiang. This would reduce travel time from six weeks to 48 hours. For all these reasons and more, China would benefit from a pacified Balochistan. Nevertheless, tensions between China and Pakistan have arisen in the past over Islamic Chinese militants (mostly from Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Province) receiving training in Pakistan, and seen as a threat by Chinese authorities once they return to China. The scope of Chinese influence in Pakistan over matters like these is demonstrated by the Pakistani government’s destruction of the Red Mosque in Islamabad at the behest of Beijing. This operation killed between 102 and 300 people according to different estimates, of which many were women and children. However hurtful to China these matters of extremist Islam might be, it continues to support Pakistan in order to counterbalance India as a rising power in South Asia.


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Human Rights Violations Balochistan is at the epicenter of a human rights violation crisis in Pakistan. Enforced disappearances, arbitrary detentions, torture and extra-judicial killings constitute a daily threat to the lives of the Baloch people. T. Kumar, International Advocacy Director at Amnesty International U.S.A., speaking at the U.S. congressional hearing on Balochistan in 2012, stated that the “Pakistani government is primarily to blame [for these human rights violations] due to its inability or unwillingness to protect civilians from human rights abuses”. Primary victims of human rights violations in Balochistan include nationalist activists or militants as well as people with tribal affiliations. In its 2012 report on Pakistan, Human Rights Watch reported that at least 200 Baloch activists were killed in 2011.

Enforced Disappearances Increasingly common, the practice of abducting a person without notifying the family of his or her whereabouts, and denying this person any access to judicial protection, is being perpetrated all over Pakistan by Pakistani military and paramilitary forces. This practice is often combined with a “kill and dump” approach, whereby the bodies of these forcibly disappeared persons are frequently found on roadsides, bearing marks of torture. Confirmed practitioners of enforced disappearances include the Pakistani paramilitary, the Frontier Corps, who are regularly seen arresting someone in public and taking them away to unknown facilities. These abducted persons are often found a few months later, victims of a “kill and dump” operation.

Enforced disappearances affect society as a whole, as families and friends of the victims are caught in a very frustrating and worrying search for their loved-one. Without knowing if the person will ever return, there is no possibility for mourning, and the families live in a constant state of fear that they might be targeted again. As Claire San Filippo of Amnesty International recounts, the Pakistani government set up a Commission of enquiry on enforced disappearances in March 2010. However, this Commission failed to provide any witness protection or assistance to victims and their families – leading to ineffective investigations into the problem. Amnesty International, as well as other human rights organizations, has called for the Government of Pakistan to ratify the Convention on Enforced Disappearances, as well as to introduce concrete measures to bring perpetrators to justice.

Women’s Rights According to Human Rights Watch, girls and women are targeted in Pakistan and suffer from rape, domestic violence, forced marriage and public intimidation. In 2011, as Aurat Foundation, a local NGO, reported, 56 honor killings were carried out against women, some of which were buried alive. Women in Balochistan are deprived of their rights in the name of religion but also in the name of honor. Aurat Foundation also mentions that collecting data on violence against women in Balochistan, and indeed Pakistan in general, is very difficult as many acts of violence are never registered or denounced.


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Yet, according to Nazish Brohi, an independent research professional in Pakistan, “women are the binding force behind any household in Pakistani society”, and are the ones who deal with atrocities caused to their family members, such as enforced disappearances. They become direct victims of the human rights abuses in Balochistan because of the political activism of their family members. More recently, as Brohi states, “Baloch women, who have always been sidelined, are now emerging and publicly questioning the authorities”. Women are attempting to show their discontent with the current situation and take to the streets to demand information on disappeared family members.

NGO Access to Balochistan In the past few years, access to Balochistan by NGO workers has become a problem as they become targets for abductions and intimidation. In a very publicized case, John Solecki,

then head of UNHCR in Quetta, was abducted in February 2009, and his driver was killed. This case is only one of the many abductions of aid workers that have occurred recently. In December 2012, six WHO polio vaccination workers were killed while working on a campaign to eradicate polio in Pakistan. This particular campaign had led to the Taliban to proclaim threats about its completion: they declared a ban on the campaign as long as the U.S. continued with its drone strikes in Pakistan. Although they did not claim responsibility for the death of the aid workers, there is little doubt of their involvement. The vaccination campaign in Balochistan was suspended immediately after the attack, forcing 280 000 thousand children in need of the vaccination to live without proper care. In Balochistan, multiple NGOs have scaled down their operations, abandoning schools and health facilities, which impoverished Baloch citizens were in dire need of.


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Political Dimensions

Sectarian Violence On 10 January 2013, two bombs exploded in Quetta, Balochistan, killing over 100 and wounding hundreds of others. On 16 February 2013, a bomb was detonated in a busy market, again in Quetta, killing around 63 people and wounding a further 180. Protests have erupted following Lashkar-e-Jhangvi’s (LeJ) repeated targeting of the Hazara community in Balochistan. These recent bombings are only the latest in a long line of bombings which have affected Balochistan, mostly since the mid-2000s, when sectarian violence increased in strength and intensity following the rise of the Pakistani Taliban. The most frequent response from the state is that it will do everything to find the perpetrators and bring them to justice – which very rarely occurs. The military line tends to be that its forces are overstretched in Balochistan and that they cannot prevent attacks from happening. Huma Yusuf, in a paper for the Norwegian Peacebuilding Resource Centre, explains the origins of sectarian violence and the clear threats it poses to Balochistan and to Pakistan as a whole. Pakistan is divided roughly into two religious groups, with a majority of Sunni and around 15-20% of Shia Muslims. Hazaras, who are the most targeted by the violence in Balochistan are predominantly Shia Muslims. Extremist groups such as the notorious LeJ, reportedly connected to the Taliban and Al Qaeda, have increased their presence in Balochistan and have targeted Hazaras. The rapid increase in violence is in part due to the failure of the government to prosecute militants of sectarian

organizations. Even worse, the state is reputed to use these organizations as proxies to execute foreign policy goals vis-à-vis India and Afghanistan, which leads to these groups being in competition with each other for the favors of the government (handouts and political favors). Yusuf also recommends that Pakistan operates a comprehensive crackdown on all sectarian groups, without which violence will continue to escalate and people from all ethnic and religious backgrounds will continue to be victims of this violence.

Political Disempowerment Following the 2008 elections in Pakistan, a new era of political transition was advertised all over Pakistan – though it seems it never reached Balochistan. There have been repeated calls by Baloch political leaders, including Akhtar Mengal, for the right of Baloch political parties to function and resume their political activity without interference from state intelligence agencies. Indeed, political activity and representation for Baloch parties is rendered difficult by several factors: the government refuses to tackle

problems in Balochistan; there is no genuine representation of

Baloch interests in the federal or provincial governments;

the influence of the military in Pakistani politics means political solutions to problems are often left aside.

Consequently, as the Baloch NGO Vision21 reports, the views promoted by insurgents have gained in popularity, as they state that the government’s aim is to


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marginalize Balochistan and reduce its people to second-class citizens. One of the main demands of Baloch people is for their political rights to be respected. Vision21 also points out that another issue is the marginalisation of the Baloch people as the poorest, least educated and least urban which is leading them to be completely overlooked and treated as a minority in their own province. They would furthermore become more susceptible to religious extremist convictions, considering it to be a way out of their miserable situation. A paper written by Gilles Boquérat of the Institut Français des Relations Internationales recounts the hopes raised after the 2008 elections and Musharraf’s ousting. Although a truth and reconciliation commission was put in place at the time – leading to the release of 800 political activists and the replacement of some military and paramilitary personnel by civil personnel – political indecision on several issues did not allow for this political transition to occur in Balochistan. Key questions such as IDPs, disappeared people, provinces’ shares in national revenues and royalties for gas deposit exploitation, were never resolved.

Claims for Self Determination Balochistan has been an independent entity as recently as 1947 before being forcibly absorbed by Pakistan following British withdrawal from the region. However, colonialism has always been a threat to Balochistan and molded the Baloch national consciousness, yet it was not until Pakistan took up a nationalist discourse that this Baloch consciousness became a determining factor in their struggle for self-determination. Balochistan, like the three other provinces of Pakistan, has a unique cultural identity, which its people are eager to preserve.

The only way to do so, as many in Balochistan believe, would be through a greater degree of independence and freedom from the control of the Pakistani state and military. In 1973, a Constitutional promise was made in Pakistan regarding provincial autonomy, which was never put into practice and for which Balochistan has pushed ever since. The Baloch people have demanded the right to self-administration through a process of complete decentralization of powers. The increased presence of the army and paramilitary in the region over the last decades has only raised the level of resentment among ordinary Baloch, as these actions are perceived as an act of imperialism by the state of Pakistan.

Elections in 2013 The Pakistani general election will next be held in May 2013, as has been announced by the government. This election will bring forward a new Pakistani parliament, and in particular Members of the National Assembly, the lower house. It is hoped these elections will bring about a peaceful and democratic transition of power, which was not the case in the last elections of 2008, which were marked by the assassination of Benazir Bhutto and attacks against several politicians. However, insurgent groups based in Balochistan have already warned Baloch political parties against participating in the elections. People are worried that violence might disrupt the electoral process in the province, denying people the chance of a fair, democratic transition. These insurgent groups are convinced that democracy is not be able to solve the region’s woes. Analysts have warned that continued sectarian violence, such as was witnessed in the past month, may delay the


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Profile

elections if the government fails to address the crisis. The climate of

insecurity will not allow politicians to campaign safely and openly in the region.

Noordin Mengal, a British citizen, is a young exiled Baloch human rights activist working for the independence of Balochistan. He is the grandson of both Sardar Ataullah Mengal and Nawab Khair Bux Marri, the two iconic statesmen of the Baloch national struggle. Mr. Mengal is a Baloch representative at the UN Human Rights Council and at the Unrepresented Nations and Peoples Organization (UNPO), as well as a member of the lawful, non-violent Baluchistan National party. On 23 June 2008, Mr. Mengal was detained upon arrival at Newark airport in the U.S.A. Mr. Mengal was held in custody in appalling conditions for over 26 hours by the Department of Homeland Security. He was questioned by officers of the Customs and Border Protection enforcement section about the situation in Balochistan and about his activities. He was left sitting on a chair for nearly 10 hours until around 11am on 24 June 2008 when he was driven to the Elizabeth detention facility in New Jersey, with handcuffs locked to a heavy chain looped around his waist. At no time was Mr. Mengal informed of his rights or of the reasons for which he was being detained. In the evening of 24 June 2008, he was eventually denied entry to the U.S.A., and deported back to Dubai, without having received any explanation. However, under the U.S. visa waiver program, law-abiding British nationals are exempt from formal visa procedures and can freely visit the U.S. for a maximum stay of up to three months on each entry. Moreover, during his detention, Mr. Mengal was denied contact with his family and although the right to contact an official at the British Embassy was acknowledged by a U.S. officer, it was never provided for. The transcript of his interrogation that was later sent to him falsely alleged that he had declined offers to contact a lawyer and the British Embassy.


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HDI Statistics

Pakistan National Human Development Report 2003

Socio Economic Issues

Development Indicators Overview Pakistan ranks at a low 145 on the Human Development Index (HDI) scale. This Index, created by the UNDP, takes into account a series of statistics on livelihood in each state, of which a few are cited below.

A UNDP “National Human Development Report” from 2003 on the situation in Pakistan reveals large variations between provinces in Pakistan: for example, the literacy rate in Balochistan was a mere 36 percent, whereas neighboring Sindh had a rate of 51 percent. It is widely recognised in this report that the HDI index was, and continues to be, lowest in Balochistan.

Gwadar Deep-sea Port The development of the port of Gwadar, on the coast of Balochistan, is an excellent example of the power games being played in the region. The Chinese control over the port’s management has recently been confirmed, after the Chinese played an important role in the construction and renovation of the port over the last few years. China financed 75% of the 248 million USD renovation of the port. The India (and its allies, including the U.S.) find Chinese presence in Balochistan unsettling. This shows the interest of the different players in obtaining influence in

the region, but also control over the energy supply routes. Baloch nationalists have raised legitimate questions as to who will benefit more from this Chinese investment. As has happened with most industrial ventures in the region (mining, for example), the Province of Balochistan has systematically been denied its share of the income generated for Pakistan. Baloch activists have also alleged that the Pakistani government has largely by-passed the local population in its plans for development, deliberately sidelining it.


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Strategic position of Gwadar Port

Demography Pakistan’s population is very young, with an average age of 18, and is projected to continue to grow, posing problems regarding education, health, welfare, jobs and food and energy sources. The same trend applies to Balochistan, where the situation is more difficult still because of further complications mentioned earlier. Balochistan, although being the largest province in Pakistan, houses only 6% of Pakistan’s population. Recent trends have shown the federal government’s efforts to re-populate the area, attracting non-Baloch people to the area through interesting business investment opportunities. From a Baloch nationalist point of view, this move is seen as an attempt to “re-colonize” Balochistan and

to ensure that Baloch become a minority in their homeland.

Drug Trafficking The strategic position of Balochistan, between Afghanistan and the coast, has led it to become an important transit region for drugs mainly coming from Afghanistan. According to a 2012 United Nations Office for Drugs and Crime (UNODC) report, one third of drugs from Afghanistan pass through Balochistan. The key in this transit is of course access to maritime routes, through which the drugs are then dispatched all over the world, but mainly towards the nearest Asian regions and the Middle East. Transit from the Afghan regions of Helmand and Kandahar to Balochistan is relatively easy as border control is lacking on both sides. In 2012, the Dutch government pledged


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2.5 million USD to UNODC to help train Baloch police forces to curb drug trafficking.

Natural Resources Oil and Gas Energy security in Pakistan has been promoted as one of the Government’s top priorities. This highlights once again the important strategic position resource-rich Balochistan is in. Balochistan has large reserves of uranium, oil, coal, gas and other resources. Although this discovery is not new, an international race to new areas of resource exploitation has brought Balochistan forward in Pakistan’s urge to secure its energy sources. Balochistan accounts for 40% of Pakistan’s natural gas production, but merely represents 17% of its consumption. Balochistan nevertheless spans a third of the country’s territory. According to Prof Christine Fair, speaking before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs in 2012, Balochistan is clearly not adequately compensated for its production. A telling example: when it comes to gas, Balochistan receives a mere 0,29 USD per thousand cubic feet of production, whereas nearby Sindh gets 1,65 USD and Punjab receives 2,35 USD. Balochistan has responded clearly, through its nationalist activist groups, that it has not received adequate compensation for the exploitation of its resources by the central government. Threats have been made against using Balochistan as a transit site for resources, as can be seen on the map below:

With the opening of Gwadar port, Balochistan has effectively become a hub for resource circulation from as far as China’s Xinjiang province. This port was built without consultation or involvement of Baloch interests, and without any benefits for them. Mining Balochistan is very rich in natural resources, as has been shown in the previous section, and also boasts reserves of copper, uranium, gold, coal, silver and platinum. Prof Fair pointed out that China’s investment in the region’s mines is noteworthy. For example, the Saindak copper mine has been shared between the Pakistani and Chinese governments: the Chinese will benefit from 50% of the revenues, the Pakistani government will take 48% with just the remaining 2% going to the Provincial Government of Balochistan where the mine is located. Water Water in Balochistan primarily comes from groundwater sources, which have traditionally been collected through a system of Karezes, which tap ground water for irrigation needs without having to pump the water. However, over the last few years, population growth, climate change and the energy crisis have placed substantial


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pressure on this century-old system, quickly depleting groundwater sources. In March 2012, a seminar was held in Quetta (Balochistan) by several NGOs regarding water usage in the region. It was revealed that the water storage crisis that Balochistan will most likely last until 2025. With about 97% of water being used for agriculture and with a fast growing population, food security in Pakistan is no longer guaranteed.

Natural Disasters Whether it is floods, earthquakes, droughts or tsunamis, Balochistan has been identified as a high-risk region for natural disasters. In 2008, the Participatory Development Initiatives partnered with Oxfam for a high-level conference on the matter, during which it was concluded that the Pakistani government has not taken enough measures to prepare its population for the risks of natural disasters. Additionally, the lack of good governance and transparency was pointed out as an obstacle to effective management in the aftermath of disasters. Floods In Balochistan, flawed designs of dams have dire consequences during floods, since they cannot cope with the flash floods during the monsoon season. The latest large-scale flood occurred in 2010, when millions were left homeless in the provinces of Balochistan and Sindh. Pakistani authorities were widely criticised for their inadequate response, leaving 1 million displaced and around 700,000 others affected.

Earthquakes Balochistan, and Pakistan as a whole, is prone to high-magnitude earthquakes. In 2008, an earthquake left more than a 100 dead and thousands homeless in Balochistan. In 2005, an earthquake in Pakistan left 74,500 dead and more than three million homeless.

Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) Both natural disasters and sectarian violence in Balochistan have had an enormous impact on its population, leading to thousands becoming internally displaced persons. This phenomenon is widespread throughout the whole of Pakistan and does not limit itself to Balochistan. According to the Internal Displacements Monitoring Centre, “Current Baluchistan displacement dates back to the early 2000s and is related to counterinsurgent operations by security forces against Baloch nationalist groups and their communities, tribal disputes over access to land and resources as well a generalised violence against minority Hindu and Sikh communities by Sunni militants and against Punjab ‘settlers’ by Baloch activists”. Only estimates exist as to how many people are affected by displacement in the province of Balochistan, but most reports speak of more than 100,000 IDPs. The situation is very difficult to manage, as several NGOs were denied access to the region, with the government initially denying any humanitarian crisis. Consequently, many IDPs suffer from malnourishment, lack of healthcare and lack of shelter.


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A Way Forward as of 2014 In his annual State of the Union address to the American Congress, President Obama stated that the war in Afghanistan will be over by late 2014, with U.S. Forces moving to a support role. It is clear that the withdrawal of the U.S. troops implies that the Afghan war is over for the Americans. What yet remains to be seen is what influence this withdrawal will have on Afghanistan and the wider region, especially with regard to security and stability. U.S. and NATO supplies primarily reached Afghanistan through the ports in the province of Balochistan, the only gateway for Pakistan to the sea. For this purpose, and for being allies in the War on Terror, Pakistan has been receiving 11.740 billion dollars in military aid, and 6.08 billion dollars in economic aid from the U.S. since 2011. Less is spent on what nevertheless seem to be major U.S. priorities: the Frontier Corps, antiterrorism and nuclear nonproliferation efforts. With the withdrawal of the troops by the end of 2014, and the general climate of austerity, it is very likely that U.S. funds to Pakistan will be significantly cut. The relations between Pakistan and the United States cooled down, especially after the siege on Bin Laden’s shelter in a Pakistani military town. It is also known that there is a general lack of transparency when trying to trace what the U.S. funds are being spent on, and a large chunk of the aid is known to be diverted to defend against India. But where does this leave Balochistan and the Baloch people? Having been divided and ruled over the past decades, Balochistan finds itself more than ever at the core of the world power game. Many experts have contemplated the question of Balochistan, with solutions ranging from the total independence of a Greater Balochistan, through “parallel Pakistans”, to Balochistan remaining a province of Pakistan (with the occasional imposing of the governor’s rule). The future of Balochistan lays wide open, with its people relying more than ever on the support of the international community. After numerous breaches of agreements and deals with the Pakistan government, trust no longer characterizes the negotiations for the Baloch people. UNPO condemns in the strongest sense the abuse of human rights that are being perpetrated against the Baloch people, and believes an end to sectarian violence in the region is paramount in putting an end to the conflict. It specifically calls on the Pakistani government to take the necessary measures to bring to justice those who continue to target and kill Baloch activists, and to abide by and ratify international covenants aimed at protecting the rights of populations. UNPO also calls on Pakistan to respect and commit to its own constitution, which guarantees certain freedoms for Balochistan. UNPO calls on the Pakistani state to abandon its preferred militarized conflict resolution techniques, which will only serve to aggravate tensions. UNPO will remain extremely vigilant regarding the organization and outcome of Pakistan’s next elections, and encourages other main actors in the region to do so as well. The outcome of these elections, and their observation and evaluation, may provide indications as to the development of the situation in Balochistan.


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About the Unrepresented Nations and Peoples Organization (UNPO) The Unrepresented Nations and Peoples Organization (UNPO) is an international, nonviolent, and democratic membership organisation. Its members are indigenous peoples, minorities, and unrecognised or occupied territories who have joined together to protect and promote their human and cultural rights, to preserve their environments, and to find nonviolent solutions to conflicts which affect them. Although the aspirations of UNPO Members differ greatly, they are all united by one shared condition: they are not adequately represented at major international fora, such as the United Nations. As a consequence, their opportunity to participate on the international stage is significantly limited, as is their ability to access and draw upon the support of the global bodies mandated to defend their rights, protect their environments, and mitigate the effects of conflict. In a world where over 90 per cent of conflicts are intra-state, the UNPO has been established to fill this gap by providing an international forum through which its Members can become effective participants and contributors to the international community. In an increasingly interdependent world, it is ever more important that those who continue to be denied their rights or remain excluded be given an opportunity to present their cases. The UNPO therefore works to address the consequences of marginalisation, working with its Members to promote their democratic causes, to provide information, and to articulate creative and nonviolent strategies for progress. Above all, the UNPO works to ensure that the voices of its members are heard. Founded in 1991 at the Peace Palace in The Hague, the UNPO is unique as an international organisation in that it is built entirely by its Members. Through this strong connection to those suffering the consequences of the exclusion that the organisation seeks to address, the UNPO has since grown into a prominent and respected international organisation. The UNPO’s membership has also grown steadily from its original fifteen founders, and now represents almost 50 Members worldwide. The work of the UNPO adapts continually to meet the challenges of its Members and the nature of the international political climate. Members remain committed to respecting the five principles enshrined in the UNPO Covenant: nonviolence, human rights, democracy and self-determination, environmental protection, and tolerance. The UNPO remains committed to offering an increasing number of nations and peoples an entry point into the international community, enabling its Members to learn from one another, lending support where setbacks are encountered, and sharing successful experiences.

What Future for Balochistan?

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