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![Page 1: What do you think best characterizes Dr. Curry’s opinion on what has caused the majority of planetary warming in the late 20th century? a) CO 2 b) solar.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062423/56649ed15503460f94be0d03/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
What do you think best characterizes Dr. Curry’s opinion on what has caused the majority of planetary warming in the late 20th century?a) CO2
b) solar variabilityc) a combination of solar and CO2 forcingd) she seemed really uncertain, I couldn’t tell
Do you think that Dr. Curry believes that CO2 is warming the planet?a) yesb) noc) the uncertainties are too large to answer yes or no
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First, an exchange between Judy and myself:
and this goes on…
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From Curry lecture on Tuesday
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“Total Solar Irradiance” measuredby satellites ~ 1365 W/m2
But in terms of actual radiative forcing on Earth,need to account for:1)Earth is a sphere (divide by ~4)2)Earth reflects 30% of incoming solar
radiation (b/c of ice, clouds, deserts, etc)
So… for a maximum total TSI change of 5 W/m2 since 1900, actual radiative forcing is 5 W/m2 / 4 * 0.7 = 0.875 W/m2
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Corrected numbers…
0.9
0.110%
1
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And later, when confronted with her solar forcing error:
Side note: slides were removed from her blogafter error was pointed out
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What do you make of this brouhaha?
Is it important to you? To the world?
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State and Regional GHG Initiatives
What are the individual states doing to mitigateGHG emissions?
What are the common elements? and regionaldifferences?
How does the first multi-state cap and tradeprogram (RGGI) work?
What implications do these non-federal programshave for pending federal legislation?
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Categories of State GHG activities
1)Vehicle Emissions Standards
2)Renewable Portfolio Standards
3) Efficiency Standards/Programs
4) Cap and Trade programs
Most content in the following section fromCenter for Climate and Energy Solutions (c2es.org)
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Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards – It’s all about California
2002: CA passes law requiring 30% emissions reductions by 20122002-2007: EPA stalls on granting CA waiver to step outside
federal emissions standards in response to industry complaints2007: CA files lawsuit against EPA for stalling2009: EPA grants CA waiver to set standards *if* changes to 2016 timelines
to be consistent with Obama CAFE standards
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Plug-in electric vehicles
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Biofuels
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Renewable Portfolio Standards
Ranges from:CA: 33% by 2020TX: 5% by 2015NY: 30% by 2015CO: 30% by 2020NC: 12.5% by 2021
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through electricity bills and/orutility charges
allows costumers to sell electricityback to grid
Public benefit funds Net metering programs
Green PricingGaPower optional: $5/100kwhr;green powerw/ 50% solar;~$50/monthadditional cost
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Appliance Efficiency Standards
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State Building Efficiency Requirements
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2/27/200715% below 2005 by 2020cap and trade
11/15/2007set emissions targets by 11/15/08~60-80% cuts by ???? (2040?)cap and trade; C inventory, reportingfull implementation by mid-2011
http://www.pewclimate.org/what_s_being_done/in_the_states/regional_initiatives.cfm
RegionalClimateAlliances
Spring 2008
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Nov 15, 2007, in devt
Dec 20, 2005, eff. 1/1/09
Feb 26, 2007, eff. 1/1/12 (goal = -15% of 2005levels by 2020)
June 25, 2008, not eff. yet
RegionalClimateAlliances
Spring 2010
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Transportation Climate Initiative(2010 declaration from 11 states)
RegionalClimateAlliances
Spring 2012
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Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI)
-set regional limits on GHG emissions from electric power plants & transportation
-based on “Model Rule”, but each state can design their own strategyfor implementation (state targets set for 2009 emissions)
-comes into force in 2009
-power plant emissions remain constant through 2014, fall by 10% by 2018
-“cap & trade” mechanism: each state will set GHG limits and then issuepermits equal to the tons of CO2 allowed by the cap
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Basic elements of Model Rule:
1)applicability: applies to fossil fuel-fired electric generating units >25MW(covers 25% of regional GHG emissions)
2) size & structure of cap: a) states must stabilize power sector CO2 emissions at 2009
emissions during implementation (2009-2014)b) then reduce emissions by 2.5%/yr for 2015-2018(total reductions of 10% below 2009 levels by 2018)
3) permitting: each CO2 source must have approved CO2 budget emission monitoring plan (EMP); developed by state energy regulators4) allowance allocation: most CO2 allowances auctioned off (vs. ETS)
25% allowances to support consumer benefit programs5) temporal flexibility mechanisms:
facilities can “bank” or “rollover” CO2 allowancesearly reduction allowances granted for early demonstrated
reductionsextended compliance period
6) price triggers: stage 1: if CO2 allowance cost >$7, CO2 offsets can increase stage 2: if CO2 allowance cost >$10, CO2 offsets increase more,
compliance period extended, international CO2 credits allowed
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Basic elements of Model Rule: (cont)
7) emissions monitoring: CO2 unit must install and certify monitoring system, report quality-controlled data (borrows from EPA acid rain program)8) offsets: awards CO2 offset allowances to projects outside capped sector that sequester/reduce CO2 emissions (limited to 3.3% of unit’s total compliance obligation
- must prove “additionality”
Who stands to gain here?Who stands to lose?Or is it that simple?What would you do as a power company in a RGGI state?
What is leakage? and how does it impact RGGI?
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LEAKAGE
There could be a shift of electricity generation from capped sources subject to RGGI to higher-emitting sources not subject to RGGI.
-impossible to predict ahead of time (market and political forces unknown)
-RGGI proposes to:1) track load vs. generation2) monitor C-intensive nature of non-RGGI power
policy options:1) reduce electricity demand (efficiency), so indirectly reduce leakage
2) limit the amount of CO2 (<xx lbs CO2/MWh) that could be “emitted” through long-term purchasing agreements between RGGI utilities and regional power plants
3) emissions portfolio standard
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How did the states dole out allowances?
- different than ETS, most allowances auctioned off
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How much money did they make?
Across three past CO2 allowance auctions, cost ~$3/ton
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Where did all this money go?
How much did it cost the average customer?Distributing the CO2 allowance costs around the ratepayers in thoseStates, RGGI costs added $0.73/month to the average electric utility bill.
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Has RGGI reduced emissions? [does it matter?]