What are the interactions between Food Security and

Planetary Boundaries?

John Ingram NERC Food Security Leader

Environmental Change Institute University of Oxford

?

Food security…

... exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.

(UN-FAO World Food Summit 1996)

… is more than food production … is underpinned by food systems

Food  Security,  i.e.  stability  over  4me  for:  

FOOD  UTILISATION  

FOOD    ACCESS  

• Affordability  • Alloca.on  • Preference  

• Nutri.onal  Value  • Social  Value  • Food  Safety  

FOOD    AVAILABILITY  

• Produc.on  • Distribu.on  • Exchange  

Environmental  Welfare  

•  Ecosystem  stocks  &  flows  

•  Ecosystem  services  •  Planetary  Boundaries  

Social  Welfare  •  Income  •  Employment    •  Wealth  •  Social  capital  •  Poli;cal  capital  •  Human  capital  

Food  System  OUTCOMES  Contribu4ng  to:  

Food  System  ACTIVITIES  Producing  food:  natural  resources,  inputs,  markets,  …  

Processing  &  packaging  food:  raw  materials,  standards,  storage  requirement,  …  

Distribu4ng  &  retailing  food:  transport,  marke.ng,  adver.sing,  …  

Consuming  food:  acquisi.on,  prepara.on,  customs,  …  

GECAFS  Food  System  Concept  ... exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.

(World Food Summit 1996)

Food System ACTIVITIES Producing food

Processing & Packaging food Distributing & Retailing food

Consuming food

?

So what are the contributions of Food Systems to crossing

Planetary Boundaries?

1: Agriculture as a driver of Land-

cover Change

Extensification

Pressure on many (?all) Planetary

Boundaries

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Agriculture 13%

70%  of  arable  GHG  emissions  connected  with  N  fer4lizer  (manufacture,  use):  

CO2  &  N2O  

2: Agriculture as a driver of GHG emissions

EarthTrends, 2008

Campbell  2011,  based  on  BenneK  et  al.  (in  prep.)    

Contribution of agriculture to crossing planetary boundaries

Contribution of capture fisheries to crossing planetary boundaries

Food  System  ACTIVITIES  Producing  food:  natural  resources,  inputs,  markets,  …  

Processing  &  packaging  food:  raw  materials,  standards,  storage  requirement,  …  

Distribu4ng  &  retailing  food:  transport,  marke.ng,  adver.sing,  …  

Consuming  food:  acquisi.on,  prepara.on,  customs,  …  

But ‘Food Systems’ involve more than producing food …

… and a major proportion of GHG emissions from food systems are not from agriculture

Edwards et al., Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy, 2009

Food Processing

Common characteristics of wastes from the industry

•  Large amounts of organic materials such as proteins, carbohydrates, and lipids

•  Large amounts of suspended solids depending on the source

•  High biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and/or chemical oxygen demand (COD)

•  High N concentration •  High suspended oil or grease contents •  High variations in pH Most have higher levels than municipal sewage

Kroyer, 1995

Dupont & Renzetti, Can J Ag Econ, 1998

Food processing plants are responsible for 4.7% of total manufacturing intake but account for 5.2% of total consumption

Water use in Canadian food processing

Water use Mm3/yr % of all industrial use

Intake 347.2 4.7

Discharge 320.1

Consumption 27.1 5.2

Processing Food

Packaging Food

Packaging: some environmental issues

•  Litter •  Use of raw materials for packaging •  Ease and convenience of packaging

disposal •  Adverse consequences of careless

disposal of packaging •  Feasibility of recycling or reuse •  Real and virtual energy content

Guardian 1 February 2009

Refrigerant leakage accounts for 30% of super-markets’ direct GHG emissions (Environment Investigation Agency, 2010)

Retailing food

The Co-operative Group Sustainability Report 2008/09

But the retail industry is “tidying up”

Net GHG emissions connected with premises, transport and refrigerants

Consuming Food

Breakdown (%) of energy use in commercial kitchens in the US (broadly similar in the UK)

Space  hea;ng  Water  hea;ng    Cooking  Ven;la;on  Office  equipment  Refridgera;on  Other  Cooling  

19

23

19

Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers, 2009      

Consuming Food

Environmental and operational CO2 usage (kgCO2) per meal served

Facility Environment Operational Combined

Primary School 0.07 0.11 0.18

Fast food outlet 0.19 0.29 0.48

Ministry of Defence: -  junior ranks’ mess

-  officers’ mess

0.43

0.76

0.64

1.13

1.07

1.89

Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers, 2009

Example contributions

of FSAs to PBs

Producing food

Processing & Packaging

food

Distributing & Retailing

food

Consuming food

Climate change

N cycle

P cycle Fresh water use Land use change

Biodiversity loss

Atmos. aerosols Chemical pollution

Example contributions

of FSAs to PBs

Producing food

Processing & Packaging

food

Distributing & Retailing

food

Consuming food

Climate change

GHGs, albedo

Energy Emissions from transport and cold chain

GHGs from cooking

N cycle Eutrophicn, GHGs

Effluent NOx from transport

Waste

P cycle P reserves Detergents Waste

Fresh water use

Irrigation Washing, heating, cooling

Cleaning food Cooking, cleaning

Land use change

Intensificn, soil degdn

Paper/card

Transport & retail infrastructure

Forest to edible oils plantation

Biodiversity loss

Deforestation, soils, fishing

[Aluminium]

Invasive spp Consumer choices

Atmos. aerosols

Dust Shipping Smoke from cooking

Chemical pollution

Pesticides Effluent Transport emissions

Cooking, cleaning

‘Food Security’ is now the BIG ISSUE

Independent; 16 October 2011: World Food Day

LAC 53m

Asia & Pac 642m

SSA 265m

NENA 42m

Developed 15m

Food systems are already failing many: 1.02 billion people hungry in 2009

“In New York City the number of people having trouble paying for food has increased 60%, to 3.3m, since 2003 and ... a staggering one in five

of the city's children rely on soup kitchens - up by 48% since 2004” Economist, Jan 14th 2010

“One new food bank opens every week in UK as more people find they cannot afford to feed themselves and their families”

London Times, April 17th 2012

Food systems are failing a further 2 billion!

1 billion with too much food and/or

“poor” diet

1 billion with insufficient nutrition

?

Food  Security,  i.e.  stability  over  4me  for:  

FOOD  UTILISATION  

FOOD    ACCESS  

• Affordability  • Alloca.on  • Preference  

• Nutri.onal  Value  • Social  Value  • Food  Safety  

FOOD    AVAILABILITY  • Produc.on  • Distribu.on  • Exchange  

How do changes in Climate and other Planetary Boundaries affect Food Security?

Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and

food preferences for an active and healthy life. (World Food Summit, 1996)

Concern that climate change will undermine food production in many parts of the world…

Reduction in wheat yields 0 - 5% 5 -10% 10 -15% 15 - 20% > 20%

Anticipated wheat yield decline by 2030

Australia exports 15 Mt/yr (~19% of world exports) Kokic, et al. Australian Commodities, 2005

… further compromised by O3 pollution. The accumulated hourly mean ozone concentration above 40 ppb, during daylight hours

•  Significant yield losses for important food crops

•  Adaptation strategies were modelled, e,g. change of timing of crop growth period to avoid peak ozone, but no marked improvement was found

Extreme weather events also disrupt food distribution systems …

… and food storage …

•  Mycotoxins formed on plant products in the field or during storage

•  Residues of pesticides in plant products affected by changes in pest pressure

•  Trace elements and/or heavy metals in plant products depending on changes in their abundance and availability in soils

•  Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in foods following changes in long-range atmospheric transport and deposition into the environment

•  Marine biotoxins in seafood following production of phycotoxins by harmful algal blooms

•  Pathogenic bacteria in foods following more frequent extreme weather conditions, such as flooding and heat waves.

… and food safety.

Miraglia et al., Food and Chemical Toxicology, 2009

Weather-induced price spikes affect affordability

Consequences of the 2008 Food Price Crisis

DRIVER Interactions

Socioeconomic DRIVERS Changes in:

Demographics, Economics, Socio-political context,

Cultural context Science & Technology

GEC DRIVERS Changes in:

Land cover & soils, Atmospheric Comp., Climate variability & means,

Water availability & quality, Nutrient availability & cycling,

Biodiversity, Sea currents & salinity, Sea level

‘Natural’ DRIVERS

e.g. Volcanoes Solar cycles

Environmental feedbacks e.g. water quality, GHGs

Socioeconomic feedbacks e.g. livelihoods, social cohesion

Food System ACTIVITIES Producing food

Processing & Packaging food Distributing & Retailing food

Consuming food

Food System OUTCOMES Contributing to:

Social Welfare

Environ Welfare

Food Utilisation

Food Access

Food Availability

Food Security

Bringing it all together Need to consider FS:PB interactions in context of drivers and feedbacks

So what do we do about it? ü  Adapt to inevitable change ü  Mitigate further change

Adaptation

“doing things differently”

Producing food

Processing & packaging food

Distributing & retailing food

Consuming food

=> adapt our Food System

“Activities”

Adaptation: Improved agriculture, livestock, horticulture, aquaculture, fisheries, …

• More varied crops

• Stress-tolerant varieties

• Wider range of food stuffs

• Novel food producing systems

• Improve water mgmt

• Insurance for producers

• …

Adaptation: Preserving crop varieties for the future

• Opened 2008 • > 4,000,000 samples • -18 oC • “Climate-change proof”

Adaptation: Improving food storage

~ 15-25% losses to pests and damp in store

Adaptation: Considering novel foods?

Tuomisto & Teixeira de Mattos. Env Sci & Tech, 2011

100139 144 151

100

204

327375

1980 1990 2000 2005

Mitigation: improving N-use efficiency?

China grain production and fertilizer consumption (1980 = 100)

Grain Fertilizer

Considerable food production achievement BUT inefficient use (quantity, timing)

Still a need to improve N-use efficiency

N inputs – N output in crop kg N/ha/yr

Western Kenya (maize-based system)

-52

North China (maize-wheat)

+227

USA (maize-soybean)

+10

Vitousek et al, Science, 2009

Mitigation: reduced tillage?

ü Reduce SOC oxidation ü Reduce input energy

•  At a C/N ratio of 12 in soil organic matter (SOM), 1 tonne of stored C requires 83 kg N/ha

•  At approximately $0.85/kg N applied, N cost of 1 tonne SOM is $71/ha

•  Current price of C on European market is <$25…

Mitigation: Sequestering more carbon in soil?

Ken Cassman, pers comm

N Cost of Carbon Sequestration

Mitigation: Reducing food miles?

The Well Travelled Yogurt Pot: Stefanie Böge

Adaptation/Mitigation: Accepting less

choice?

Tesco Oxford has 25,000 different food lines…

What about us as individuals?

Adaptation & Mitigation: Modifying our diets?

=> One of the biggest, most immediate impacts!

Consume less red meat and diary: Eat poultry in place of red meat and consume plant-based food rather than dairy two days per week

105

Waste less food: Reduce consumer food waste by 25%

65

Behavioural Change and Personal Action CO2 emissions

Emissions reductions (MtCO2e) achievable if adopted by 100% of the US population

Reducing food waste

•  May occur anywhere along the supply chain, from farm to final consumer

•  Difficult to measure •  Globally, 15-50% of

food is lost post-harvest

•  Often unnoticed until too late

Farmers

Processors

Final Consumers

Transporters

Retailers

Input Suppliers