WFO AVIATION FORECAST OVERVIEW · Requirement as a part of the FAA NextGen initiative Integrate...

WFO AVIATION FORECASTOVERVIEWTRANSITION TO DIGITAL SERVICESSean LuchsForecaster, Aviation Weather Program LeaderWFO Houston/Galveston

What We Do

1990sAnalyzeStudy GuidanceType

Written Text ForecastsPersonal Interaction

What We Provide

Early 2000sAnalyzeStudy GuidanceDraw

Written TAFsDigital Grids (Not AVN)Derived Products – TextForecasts, Matrices, etc.Personal InteractionSome Expanded/DetailedProducts

Transition to The FutureAnalyzeManipulate Guidance

4D Digital Forecast “Cube” (Including AVN)Derived ProductsProbabilistic ForecastsPersonal InteractionMore Expanded/Detailed ProductsDetailed Data for IntelligentSoftware Capability

THE PATH OF NWS AVIATION FORECASTS

TEXAS AVIATION CONFERENCE – APRIL 17, 2019 WFO HGXHOUSTON/GALVESTON WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

WHY ARE WE DOING THIS?

Requirement as a part of the FAA NextGen initiative Integrate Aviation forecasting with the rest of our

forecast Increases consistency Creates new ceiling and visibility grids for NDFD which can be

used for General Aviation airports (non TAF sites), en-route flight information, and other non-aviation purposes


https://www.faa.gov/nextgen/

WHAT DAS IS... For us: a set of procedures, smart tools, and a TAF formatter that allow

us to generate TAFs from grids. For our customers: extend aviation forecast information beyond the

traditional TAF sites.

WHAT DAS IS NOT... Gridded TAFs DO NOT replace the forecaster. These are not

“automatic” TAFs Meteorologist oversight is still needed


WFO HOUSTON/GALVESTON AIRPORTS 8 “official” TAF sites Nearly 50 additional airfields of

varying size recognized by the FAA Even more smaller, private airfields

CLLUTS

IAH

HOUSGR

CXO

GLSLBX

TAF SitesSample of Other Airports

00R

11R

06RTME

26R

2H5 AXH

33R

3T2

51R

60R

66R

6R3

ARM

BYY

CFD

DKR

DWH

ELA

EYQHPYIWS

LVJ

PSX

RWV


NEW AVIATION GRIDS AND TAF FORMATTERAviation Grids Ceiling

CloudBasePrimary

CloudBaseSecondary

Visibility

LLWS (One for Vector, One for Height)

“TEMPO” Grids CloudBaseConditional

VisibilityConditional

Formatter

The TAF Formatter



WHAT WE’LL CREATE WITH DAS Hourly graphical forecasts of Ceiling and Visibility which represent

prevailing conditions for the next 30 hours Aim to be accurate within a flight category

Support a national digital database

Create “First Guess” TAFs from the database for review/editing by the forecaster

TAF Formatter Human TAFTAFKCLL 152242z 1600/1624 16015KT P6SM SKC

FM161000 16007KT P6SM SCT060FM161100 16007KT P6SM BKN060FM161200 16007KT P6SM BKN015FM161300 16009KT P6SM BKN040FM161600 16012KT P6SM BKN060FM161700 16013KT P6SM BKN050FM161800 16013G21KT P6SM BKN080FM162000 16014KT P6SM SCT060

TAFKCLL 152320Z 1600/1624 16012KT P6SM SCT250FM161100 16010KT P6SM BKN015FM161600 16015G25KT P6SM SCT025 SCT250FM162000 16017KT P6SM SCT035 BKN250

HOURLY GRAPHICAL FORECASTS


POSSIBLE FUTURE APPLICATIONS

Interactive map interface for Terminal Information Board


POSSIBLE FUTURE APPLICATIONS

“Point and Click” capability for Ceiling and Visibility forecasts


INTERNAL CONSISTENCYWind grids produce identical output for all applications


WHAT WILL NOT CHANGE A human still creates official TAFs and

amendments All the grids you’re already used to Aviation discussions at scheduled TAF times Coordination on forecast with CWSU


WHAT HAVE TEST OFFICES FOUND? Improved Verification

WFO Boston saw improved verification statistics at all TAF sites after DAS implementation.

Improved Consistency Between products and between offices

Improved Efficiency Easier to compose TAFs Easier to send multiple scheduled amendments (IAH and HOU)

Streamlined Workflow Ability to add TAF sites with little change to workload This could have been helpful when DWH was added as a temporary

site during Super Bowl LI.


THE CHALLENGES TAFs will still require hand editing. The models are good…they’re

not that good Software is new and in active development. Bugs may be

discovered and will have to be fixed Editing aviation grids is new! We’ll have to gain experience in

making them

Initial dip in accuracy possible, but they quickly recovered and improved at test offices

Training & practice is crucial!


THE BENEFITS TAF-like information available for entire CWA

Pilots no longer have to “estimate” based upon nearby TAFs Useful for Search & Rescue, HazMat, Special Events, Fire Weather, etc. Visibility – Hello, Sea Fog!

Capability to add more official TAF sites Once settled, verification improves More detailed and consistent information

For Pilots For AWC/CWSUs

Area Forecasts, Stand-Up Briefings, etc.


CENTER WEATHER SERVICE UNIT OPERATIONSAndy McNeel

Meteorologist

Houston Center Weather Service Unit

CWSUS - WHO WE ARE

National Weather Service meteorologists tasked with producing specialized weather forecasts of all aviation hazards to FAA personnel

Located at 21ARTCCs across the United States

National Weather Service personnel under contract with the FAA

TEXAS AVIATION CONFERENCE – APRIL 17, 2019 zhuwxHOUSTON CENTER WEATHER SERVICE UNIT

ORIGINS OF THE CWSU PROGRAM

CWSUs got their start from the subsequent investigation following the crash of Southern Airways Flight 242 in 1977 DC-9 flying from MSL to ATL flew into a

thunderstorm near New Hope, GA Both engines flamed out due to hail

ingestion

The investigation into the crash suggested that the air traffic control system needed improved means of receiving timely weather information


HOUSTON CENTER WEATHER SERVICE UNIT

3 operational meteorologists + 1 supervisor

Staffed 5:00am-9:00pm, 7 days/week, 365 days/year

Co-located within the Traffic Management Unit at the Houston ARTCC


CWSU OPERATIONS

Where Weather Forecast Offices concentrate on the airports themselves through TAFs, we concentrate on forecasts for the en-route environment as well as for the terminals.

We exclusively focus on aviation weather hazards.

We forecast for the en-route environment for traffic landing at facilities within the ZHU airspace, and for trans-continental traffic passing through.


COOL SEASON – FOG/LOW CEILINGS

Reliably and accurately forecasting the timing and severity of visibility and ceiling impacts is an ever-present challenge for forecasters Can be dictated by minute, undetectable

environmental factors Patchy nature of fog can lead to wildly-

fluctuating visibility obs Observations from RVR sensors can

fluctuate considerably at times. Skillfully predicting the onset of increased

winds/mixing is key to forecasting the timing of ceiling/visibility improvement


WARM SEASON – SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORMS

Summertime convection tends to be sporadic in nature and usually weakly forced Triggered by small-scale boundaries and

processes that can’t always be detected or measured

Highly dependent on the temperature achieved during the day

Accurately forecasting thermodynamic factors and small-scale forcing mechanisms (e.g. outflow boundaries, sea breeze) very important in successfully forecasting summertime thunderstorms.


TROPICAL CYCLONES

The Houston ARTCC controls air traffic across much of the Gulf of Mexico international airspace

Majority of commercial air traffic is already routed around tropical cyclones

Increase in helicopter operations to oil platforms in the path of the storm

Increased efforts to protect personnel, property, and equipment at locations near expected landfall


IT TAKES A TEAM

We are constantly coordinating and collaborating with other entities in our efforts to serve the flying public Weather Forecast Offices within our

airspace

Neighboring CWSUs

Meteorologists at the FAA ATCSCC in Washington DC

Aviation Weather Center


AVIATION WEATHER CENTER

National center located in Kansas City

Issues AIRMETs and SIGMETs for turbulence, icing, ceilings/visibility, etc.

We will regularly coordinate with the Aviation Weather Center on the placement of these products. We will also issue Center Weather

Advisories as needed.


CENTER WEATHER ADVISORIES

Products issued by a center’s CWSU to supplement AIRMETs and SIGMETs issued by the Aviation Weather Center LIFR conditions

Thunderstorms not covered by a convective SIGMET

More rarely, areas of extreme icing or turbulence


TFM CONVECTIVE FORECAST (TCF)

Forecast for expected convection nationwide in the 4hr, 6hr, and 8hr timeframe

Coordinated nationally every 2 hours

Collaborative effort between the Aviation Weather Center, the CWSUs, the Meteorological Service of Canada, and major airline/freight stakeholders


PRE-DUTY WEATHER BRIEFINGS

Online weather briefings produced thee times per day

Produced for FAA personnel airspace-wide to watch to brief themselves before going on position for the day

Relatively new product fulfilling a relatively new mandate – We always welcome feedback and ideas on how to improve it!


THANK YOU!

We’re always wanting feedback on how we can better serve ALL of our partners!

www.weather.gov/zhu

[email protected]


WFO AVIATION FORECAST OVERVIEW · Requirement as a part of the FAA NextGen initiative Integrate...

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