WFM 6311: Climate Change Risk Management

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam

WFM 6311: Climate Change Risk Management

Akm Saiful Islam

Lecture-11: International treaties, negotiations and Bangladesh position

March, 2013

Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM)Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET)


Outlines

Responsibility UNFCCC Kyoto Protocol (COP1 to COP7) IPCC The Bali Action Plan (COP 13) The Copenhagen Accord (COP15) The Cancun Agreements (COP16) Durban Conference (COP 17) Bangladesh Position


Who is responsible ?


Emission of Green house gases Emission of Co2 Bangladesh < 0.2 ton/yr


Global Emission


UNFCC and COP


The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

UNFCCC has establish in 1994 to set an overall framework for global efforts to tackle the challenge posed by climate change.

UNFCCC recognizes that the climate system is a shared resource whose stability can be affected by industrial and other emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.

Currently, there are 195 Parties (194 States and 1 regional economic integration organization) to the Convention.


The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

Governments are required to: gather and share information on greenhouse

gas emissions, national policies and best practices

launch national strategies for addressing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to expected impacts, including the provision of financial and technological support to developing countries

cooperate in preparing for adaptation to the impacts of climate change.


COP Since the UNFCCC entered into force in 1995, the

Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UNFCCC have been meeting annually to assess progress in dealing with climate change.

The COP adopts decisions and resolutions, published in reports of the COP. Successive decisions taken by the COP make up a detailed set of rules for practical and effective implementation of the Convention.


Kyoto Protocol


What is the Kyoto Protocol?

The Kyoto Protocol is an agreement made under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Countries that ratify this protocol commit to reduce their emissions of carbon dioxide and five other greenhouse gases, or engage in emissions trading if they maintain or increase emissions of these gases to a 5.37% less than 1999.

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamA Brief History of the Events Leading to the Kyoto Protocol

COP 1, in March of 1995, saw the passage of the Berlin Mandate, which called for new negotiations on more detailed commitments for industrialized countries under the UNFCCC.

On December 11, 1997 the Kyoto Protocol was officially adopted at COP 3 in Kyoto Japan.

In 1998 a new round of negotiations on Kyoto were launched at COP 4 in Buenos Aires.


History (cont.)

Negotiations on the rules of implementing the Kyoto Protocol resumed during COP 6 in Bonn, Germany, July 2001.

Building on the Bonn Agreements negotiators at COP 7 (Marrakech, Morocco, October 2001) adopted a comprehensive package of decisions known as the Marrakech Accords.


The Kyoto Protocol

The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement linked to the UNFCCC.

It sets binding targets for 37 industrialised countries and the European Union for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Using the emissions inventory for the year 1990 as a basis, reductions amounting to an average of 5% over the five-year period 2008-2012 is expected.

The major difference between the Protocol and the UNFCCC is that while the UNFCCC encourages industrialised countries to stabilise greenhouse gas emissions (GHG’s), the Protocol commits them to do so.


The Kyoto Protocol

The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997 and entered into force on 16 February 2005.

The commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol ends in 2012

A new international framework needs to have been negotiated and ratified that can deliver the stringent emission reductions as recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The basis for this is expected to happen in COP 17- CMP 7.

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamKyoto Protocol: 4 Main Elements The Kyoto Protocol and its rulebook, set out in the

Marrakech Accords, consist of five main elements: 1. Commitments

A. Specific emissions commitmentsB. General commitments

2. ImplementationA. Domestic policies and measuresB. Land use, land-use change and forestry sectorC. Joint implementationD. Clean development mechanismE. Emissions trading


Commitments: Specific

At the real heart of the Kyoto Protocol lies its set of legally-binding emissions targets for industrialized countries. These emissions targets amount to a total cut, among all Annex I Parties, of at least 5% from 1990 levels by 2008-2012.



The collective 5% reduction is shared out so that each Annex I Party has its own individual emissions target.

However, all individual emissions targets must be achieved by the same commitment period of 2008-2012.

*All individual targets are listed in Annex B of the Protocol.


KYOTO PROTOCOL PARTIES

ANNEX 1 Countries: Developed countries

Non- ANNEX 1 Countries: Non Developed

countries


Kyoto Protocol -Country Targets

Country % of baseAustralia 108

Austria 92

Belgium 92

Bulgaria 92

Canada 94

Croatia 92

Czech Republic 92

Denmark 92

Estonia 92

European Community 92

Finland 92

France 92

Germany 92

Greece 92

Hungary 94

Iceland 110

Country % of baseItaly 92

Japan 94

Lithuania 92

Netherlands 92

New Zealand 100

Norway 101

Poland 94

Portugal 92

Romania 92

Russian Federation 100

Spain 92

Sweden 92

Switzerland 92

Ukraine 100

United Kingdom 92

United States 93



If a Party achieves more substantial cuts in its emissions than is required by its target it may carry over the difference to the next commitment period

In addition, Parties may offset their emissions by increasing the amount of greenhouse gases removed from the atmosphere by carbon sinks in the Land-Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry sector (LULUCF).


Flexibility Mechanisms The Kyoto Protocol defines three innovative “flexibility

mechanisms” to lower the overall costs of achieving its emissions targets.

These mechanisms enable Parties to access cost-effective opportunities to reduce emissions or to remove carbon from the atmosphere in other countries.

While the cost of limiting emissions varies considerably from region to region, the benefit for the atmosphere is the same, wherever the action is taken.

Under this system, the amount to which an Annex I Party must reduce its emissions over the five year commitment period (“assigned amount”) is divided into units each equal to one ton of carbon dioxide equivalent.


Kyoto mechanisms are:

CDM: Clean Development Mechanism.- provides for Annex I Parties to implement projects that reduce emissions in non-Annex I Parties, or absorb carbon through afforestation or reforestation activities, in return for certified emission reductions (CERs, tCERs and lCERs) and assist the host Parties in achieving sustainable development and contributing to the ultimate objective of the Convention.

JI: Joint Implementation.- an Annex I Party may implement an emission-reducing project or a project that enhances removals by sinks in the territory of another Annex I Party (with a commitment inscribed in Annex B of the Kyoto Protocol) and count the resulting emission reduction units (ERUs) towards meeting its own Kyoto target.

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamThe clean development mechanism (CDM) Provides for Annex I Parties to implement

project activities that reduce emissions in non-Annex I Parties, in return for certified emission reductions (CERs).

The CERs generated by such project activities can be used by Annex I Parties to help meet their emissions targets under the Kyoto Protocol.

Such project activities are to assist the developing country host Parties in achieving sustainable development and in contributing to the ultimate objective of the Convention.

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamU.S. Response to the Kyoto Protocol

The U.S. is the world’s single-largest source of CO2

emissions, accounting for 36% in 1990. As such, U.S. ratification would clearly push the

Kyoto thermometer above the 55% threshold and thus, bring the Protocol into force.

However, in March of 2001 President George W. Bush steadfastly rejected the Kyoto Protocol citing the “fact” that, “[T]he Kyoto treaty would severely damage the United States’ economy…”6


US State Initiatives As of January 18, 2007, eight Northeastern US

states are involved in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) which is a state level emissions capping and trading program.

It is believed that the state-level program will indirectly apply pressure on the federal government by demonstrating that reductions can be achieved without being a signatory of the Kyoto Protocol.

Participating states: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Massachusetts.

The California Legislature reached an agreement to reduce the state's greenhouse-gas emissions, which rank at 12th-largest in the world, by 25 percent by the year 2020.


IPCC

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamThe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

IPCC was established in 1988 by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

IPCC provides the world with a clear scientific view on the current state of knowledge in climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic impacts.

As an intergovernmental body the IPCC is open to all member countries of the United Nations and WMO.


COP (Copenhagen to Durban)


Towards a new agreementin 2012

Kyoto Protocol reaches its sell by date in 2012.

Processes have been taking place to replace it with a new binding agreement.

In 2007, The Bali Action Plan sought such an agreement.

COP 15 which took place in Copenhagen called for a new deal but could only come up with the Copenhagen Accord.

COP 16 which took place in Mexico in 2010 resulted in the CANCUN AGREEMENTS.

It is up to South Africa to ensure that a solid agreement is to happen in 2012.


The Bali Action Plan (5 point plan)

The Bali Action Plan was agreed upon at COP 13 in December, in Bali, Indonesia.

It calls for the full, effective and sustained implementation of the UNFCCC through long-term cooperative action up to and beyond 2012 by addressing :

1. A shared vision for long-term cooperative action, including a long-term global goal for emission reductions.

2. Enhanced national/international action on mitigation of climate change.

3. Enhanced action on adaptation. 4. Enhanced action on technology development and transfer

to support action on mitigation and adaptation.5. Enhanced action on the provision of financial resources

and investment to support action on mitigation and adaptation and technology cooperation.


The Copenhagen Accord

The 15th session of the Conference of Parties (COP 15) to the UNFCCC took place in Denmark in the city of Copenhagen.

COP 15 noted the Copenhagen Accord at the final plenary on 18 December 2009.

Countries had to pledge their CO2 emission reductions. The Accord is not legally binding and does not commit

countries to agree to a binding successor to the Kyoto Protocol.

An assessment of the implementation of this Accord is to be completed by 2015.


The Cancun Agreements

COP 16 was held in Cancún, Mexico in 2010 Arising thereof the Cancun Agreements were adopted. The Cancun Agreements are a set of significant

decisions:1. The international community agreed to address the

long-term challenge of climate change collectively and comprehensively over time and to take concrete action now to speed up the global response.

2. The agreements represent key steps forward in capturing plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to help developing nations protect themselves from climate impacts and build their own sustainable futures.


COP 17

Conference of Parties (COP) refers to the States that have signed on to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

The parties have been meeting annually in Conferences of the Parties (COP) to assess progress in dealing with climate change since 1995.

COP 17 is therefore the 17th Conference that will take place at the end of this year (2011).

The COP 17- CMP 7 will mark a critical moment in the ongoing international climate change negotiations.

CMP 7 means the seventh meeting of the Parties since the Kyoto Protocol was signed.

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamCOP 17 : 2011 United Nations Climate Change Conference

The 2011 United Nations Climate Change Conference will be held in Durban, South Africa, from 28 November to 9 December 2011.

Officially it is referred to as the 17th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 17) to the UNFCCC.

It is also the 7th session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties (CMP 7) to the Kyoto Protocol.

In addition, the two permanent subsidiary bodies of the UNFCCC – the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) and the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) – are likely to hold their 35th sessions.


The 11th Hour has arrived.

We cannot allow the Kyoto Protocol to die here.

Christina Figueres (Head :UNFCCC) maintains that it is important to resolve the future of the Kyoto Protocol which is fundamental and critical for at least two reasons:

1) It contains the key rules to quantify monitor the mitigation efforts of countries.

2) It also contains important market based mechanisms that allows those countries to reach their mitigation levels in a cost effective manner.


Towards a new agreement in 2012:

Taking meaningful climate action is about seizing the opportunity –

to build international competitiveness, new economic infrastructure, sectors and

activity; create prosperity and jobs; transform our economy and society;

reduce poverty; improve health and quality of life for all.


Bangladesh Position


Emphasizing a legally-binding mid term and long term emission reduction targets by Annex I Parties with 40% by 2020 and 85% by 2050 below 1990 levels.

Based on IPCC AR4, global emission reduction efforts must ensure at least 25-40% below 1990 levels by 2020 for Annex I and significantly below business as usual (BAU) emissions in 2020 for the non-Annex I countries as a group.

NAMA Registry should be web based and supported by developed countries

Registry should not become a prior requirement or bottleneck to access funding, including from the GCF.

Mitigation: Bangladesh Position

Source of information: Dr. Monjurul Hannan, Deputy Sec., MoEF


Mitigation: Bangladesh Position cont…

Loopholes in LULUCF and market-based mechanisms that degrade reduction targets need to be excluded.

The global goals and limits must include emissions from international shipping and aviation

A legally binding agreement that is fair, effective, comprehensive and robust ensuring global environmental integrity

Durban should launch a clear roadmap with reasonable timeframe agreed by Parties towards reaching a legally binding agreement.



Adaptation: Bangladesh position

Adaptation Committee for Macro Management

Priority should be country driven GCF or other financial entities will

allocate resources for project implementation

Linkages with funding mechanism and technology



Adaptation: Bangladesh position

Finalization of adaptation text in Durban and operationalization adaptation activities

Member from LDCs in Adaptation Committee Adaptation Committee must be under COP, not

under SBI Balanced allocation for Adaptation and Mitigation Ugent and immediate fund for NAPA, NAP and

BCCSAP implementation



AWG-KP: Bangladesh position

Five year 2nd commitment period of KP after 2012

Strong political decision is critical Finalization and adoption of legally binding

agreement ASAP No more flexible mechanism for parties

those are not in favor of KP 2nd cp



Technology: Bangladesh position

Operationalization of CTC and Networks at Durban

Country driven priority for technology access and transfer

Technology access, transfer and capacity building must be supported

Emphasis on both adaptation and mitigation technology

Linkages of technology with finance



Finance: Bangladesh position

Transparency on Fast Start Fund with urgent and immediate fund release

Operationalization of GCF in Durban A clear work plan on pledged of Annex I from post 2012

and up to 2020 for approval by COP 17 Direct access of fund by LDCs through national funding

mechanism i.e. BCCTF and BCCRF Balanced allocation for adaptation and mitigation Urgent and immediate fund for NAPA and BCCSAP

implementation



Thank you

WFM 6311: Climate Change Risk Management

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