Weylon Malek AMPEAK 2014 Presentation - Process Reliability

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Process Reliability

Weylon Malek

Lead Engineer - Western Australia


Your Organisation

• What triggers your organisation to perform an RCA?

• Easy… These typically cause significant production losses

• Shutdown Extensions

• Explosions or other event that may cause injury

• What triggers your organisation to perform an RCM study?

• Typically smaller losses that add up or Reliability issues on

bottleneck assets

• Poor Maintenance Strategy

• Poor Spares Management and/or Resource Levelling

• How often does your organisation review its’ maintenance

strategies?

• Answers I’ve heard in the past…

• Never

• Every 24 months


Why Use Process Reliability

• The Weibull process reliability techniques help define a strategic course of action for making improvements.

• The look down technique provides opportunities for developing a strategy to solve problems.

• The method tells the nature of

problems and quantifying the

losses.


Analysing a PR Chart

The reliability of the process is defined at the point where the trend line, in the upper reaches of the production, began their losses at a cusp.

A portion of the losses appear as cutbacks.

Another portion of the losses appear as very severe problems characterized by a zone labeled crash and burn---both zones are associated with reliability problems.


Process Reliability Chart


Nameplate Values

• NAMEPLATE Eta

– The maximum plant capacity under assumed ideal operating and control conditions. This

value can be however obtained by taking an average of the best 15 production results.

• NAMEPLATE Beta

– Manually set to 75 (or other pre-determined value). Beta of 100 is seen to be “world class”

production, achieving highly consistent results.

– Improvement in Nameplate Values will occur as the consistency of throughput is increased

as a result of focussing on both Production and Reliability losses


Production Values • PRODUCTION Eta

– Production Line tonnes are based on the Weibull analysis performed using the daily production data,

returning a value where the production data line (best of fit) intersects with the Eta estimator (63.2% of

production results are below)

• PRODUCTION Beta

– The Characteristic Shape, or slope of the Weibull Distribution.

In Process analysis, this represents the consistency in the plant’s outputs. The lower the number, the

lower the consistency or increase in variability within the process.

– Production Losses are typically related to;

• Utilisation

• Efficiency

• Process variability

• Equipment Operating Characteristics

• Systemic issues


Reliability Losses • Total Reliability & Loss

– Reliability point is where there is a cusp in the production points plotted on the Weibull chart. This

represents the point where production becomes inconsistent or unreliable. The loss value is the

difference between demonstrated capacity and are the points at which the production values lie to

the left of that capacity line

– The cusp for the point of reliability represents probability the capacity (tonnes) is likely to be

achieved or greater.

– i.e at this point a 90.34% probability of achieving 382.3 tonnes or greater

– Losses here equate to “Given” tonnes lost per day through reliability plant issues

such as breakdowns

– Reliability losses should be targeted with a formailised RCA Defect Elimination Process with

defined trigger points to reduce variability in plant throughput. This will result in higher eta and

beta Production values which represents increased throughput consistency


12 Month Analysis Profile

Profile

ProductionLosses

ReliabilityLosses 1

Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Month

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

Lo

st C

ap

acity to

nnes


How To Improve?

• What is the issue?

• Reliability or Process?

• How to deal with those issues?

• Do those issues change over time?

• How to quantify improvements?


Using a Reliability Block Diagram (RBD)

to Help Make Decisions

• An RBD is a logic diagram that describes a system behaviour

and easily allows different scenarios to be analysed.

1.1Prim ary Crushing

System

(97.45) %

1.240,000 tonne Live Coars e Ore Pile

System

(95.46) %

1.3Sec ondary

Crus her Feed Conveyor

621-CVR-0-02M TTF=100.6M TTR=0.92

100 %

1.4Sec ondary

Crus hing System

(99.71) %

1.5Coars e Screen

Feed Conveyor 622-CRV-0-03

M TTF=144.2M TTR=1.65

100 %

1.7HRGR Feed

Conveyor623-CVR-0-04

M TTF=173.5M TTR=1.15

100 %

1.8HPGR Sy stem

(87.63) %

1.2.1Coars e Ore Pile

TTE=96TFL=12

100 %

1.11Fine Sc reening

and Ball Mill System 1

(24.48) %

1.12Fine Sc reening

and Ball Mill System 2

(24.45) %

1.13Fine Sc reening

and Ball Mill

System 3

(24.52) %

1.14Fine Sc reening

and Ball Mill

System 4

(24.44) %

1.26

Coars e Screen Feeder

623-FDV-1-01

M TTF=64.8M TTR=0.45

35 %

1.27

Coars e Screen623-SCR-1-01

35 %

1.28Coars e Screen

Feeder623-FDV-2-01


35 %

1.29Coars e Screen

623-SCR-2-01

35 %

1.30Coars e Screen

Feeder623-FDV-3-01


35 %

1.31Coars e Screen623-SCR-3-01

35 %

1.32

Coars e Screen Feeder

623-FDV-4-01


35 %

1.33

Coars e Screen623-SCR-4-01

35 %

1.3412W Shutdown

TTF=1000000M TTR=0100 %

1.351 YR Shutdown

TTF=1000000M TTR=0100 %

1.366W Shutdown

TTF=1000000M TTR=0

100 %

Copy Of1.8.17

Fine Ore Bin625-BIN

TTE=2.27TFL=1.19

100 %

System 1

Example of a crushing circuit


Which System is the Bottleneck?


Is there something in that system we can

target?

• Lets take a look at the problem system in detail

Example of the Secondary Crushing System

BN-003Secondary Screen

Feed Bin 1

FE-002Secondary Screen

Belt Feeder 1

BN-004Secondary Screen

Feed Bin 2

FE-003Secondary Screen

Belt Feeder 2

SC-002Secondary Screen

1

SC-003Secondary Screen

2

CV-003Conveyor CV03

BN-006Secondary

Crusher Feed Bin 1

BN-007Secondary

Crusher Feed Bin 2

FE-005Secondary

Crusher Feeder 1

FE-006Secondary

Crusher Feeder 2

CV-004

Conveyor CV04

CR-002Secondary Crusher 1

CR-003Secondary Crusher 2

PP-004

Dust Scrubber Slurry Pump

PP-010

Sump Pump

PP-011

Sump Pump

DC-003

Secondary Screening Dust

Scrubber

AU10-PPP-CRU-BLDNG-BD002

BUILDING, SECONDARY SCREENING

AU10-PPP-CRU-BLDNG-BD003

BUILDING, SECONDARY CRUSHING

F-004.1No Capacity Consequence

Sub-system F-004


What to do in the Problem System to

Improve Production?

In this example CV04 and CV03 have the biggest impact on production.

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800

Conveyor CV04

Conveyor CV03

Secondary Crusher 1

Secondary Crusher 2

Secondary Screening Dust Scrubber

Secondary Crusher Feeder 1

Secondary Crusher Feeder 2

Contribution to Capacity Loss (Thousand $)

Co

mp

on

en

t

Contribution to Capacity Loss over 10 YRS


Implementing The Strategy

• Reliability Block Diagrams (RBD)

– Utilise an Availability Simulation to predict production

increases with different scenarios.

How does a redundancy

scenario change production?


Implementing Your Strategy

• Reliability Block Diagrams (RBD)

– Utilise an Availability Simulation to predict production

increases with different scenarios.

What predicted impact will a

RCM have on our production?

MTTF goes from 8760

to 4860 through RCM


What is the Best Solution?


Comparing Results


Conclusions

• Step One

– Identify room for improvement

• Step Two

– Identify the best improvement that can be made.

• Step Three

– Quantify the cost benefit in the options available for

improvement through statistical methods.

• Step Four

– Analyse the data to see what impact decisions have on the

business.


Weylon Malek ARMS Reliability [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Weylon Malek AMPEAK 2014 Presentation - Process Reliability

Engineering

Transcript of Weylon Malek AMPEAK 2014 Presentation - Process Reliability