Western Washington wildfires: Managing the risk...Nov 05, 2019 · Daniel Donato and Joshua...
Transcript of Western Washington wildfires: Managing the risk...Nov 05, 2019 · Daniel Donato and Joshua...
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Western Washington wildfires: Managing the risk
Daniel Donato and Joshua HalofskyWashington State Department of Natural Resources
November 2019
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Wildfires between 1984-2015
Increasing fire activity
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Wildfires between 1984-2015
Westside firewall ?
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Characteristic fire(historical)
Infrequent – high severity
Moderately frequent – mixed severity
Frequent – mixed severity
Very frequent – low severity
Spies et al. 2018
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1933 Tillamook Burn
1902 Yacolt Burn
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Characteristic fire(historical)
Infrequent – high severity
Moderately frequent – mixed severity
Frequent – mixed severity
Very frequent – low severity
Spies et al. 2018
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Fire Regimes
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The Bioclimatic Setting
Summer PrecipitationSummer Temperature Summer Drought
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Characteristic fire(historical)
Infrequent – high severity
Moderately frequent – mixed severity
Frequent – mixed severity
Very frequent – low severity
Spies et al. 2018
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Characteristic fire(historical)
Infrequent – high severity
Moderately frequent – mixed severity
Frequent – mixed severity
Very frequent – low severity
Spies et al. 2018
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Van Pelt (2007)
~200-600 years
Life & times of a Doug-fir/hemlock forest
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How big were the largest fire episodes?
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How big were the largest fire episodes?
~7 million acres
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1,730,000 3,500,000 4,700,000
870,000 1,700,000 2,200,000
590,000 1,200,000 1,500,000
~7 million acres
How big were the largest fire episodes?
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Consistent with evidence
• Year ~1700 fire episode:→ >1 million acres on Olympic Peninsula, → 3 to 10 million acres in western Washington
- Henderson et al. 1989
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• Year ~1700 fire episode:→ >1 million acres on Olympic Peninsula, → 3 to 10 million acres in western Washington
- Henderson et al. 1989
• Yacolt complex → >1 million acres
- Natl. Int. Fire Center [nifc.gov]
• Tillamook burn→ 350,000 acres
- Kemp 1960
Consistent with evidence
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Spies et al. 2018 (summarizing Plummer 1902, etc.)
Early land surveys
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Spies et al. 2018 (summarizing Plummer 1902, etc.)
Early land surveys
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Spies et al. 2018 (summarizing Plummer 1902, etc.)
Early land surveys
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The M.O. of large westside fires
Three factors coincide:
1)
2)
3)
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The M.O. of large westside fires
Three factors coincide:
1) Dry, late summer conditions
2)
3)
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The M.O. of large westside fires
Three factors coincide:
1) Dry, late summer conditions
2) Ignition source
3)
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Causes of western Washington fires
-DNR Wildfire Division
Human
Lightning
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The M.O. of large westside fires
Three factors coincide:
1) Dry, late summer conditions
2) Ignition source
3) Synoptic east wind event
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The M.O. of large westside fires
Three factors coincide:
1) Dry, late summer conditions
2) Ignition source
3) Synoptic east wind event
24-72 hours
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The M.O. of large westside fires
Three factors coincide:
1) Dry, late summer conditions
2) Ignition source
3) Synoptic east wind event
24-72 hoursTillamook Burn: 200,000 acres in 24 hrs
Yacolt Complex: 30 miles in 36 hrs
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The M.O. of large westside fires
The largest westside fires are not so much a fire
event…
…They are a wind event with fire in it
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• Not just a historic thing
• Not just climate change
• Not forest mis-management
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• Big events are part of the system
• Built-in resilience
• Not just a historic thing
• Not just climate change
• Not forest mis-management
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Some parallels: Cascadia Subduction Earthquakes
Last event: 1700
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“Cascadia Subduction Fires”
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Characteristic fire(historical)
Infrequent – high severity
Moderately frequent – mixed severity
Frequent – mixed severity
Very frequent – low severity
Spies et al. 2018
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Characteristic fire(historical)
Infrequent – high severity
Moderately frequent – mixed severity
Frequent – mixed severity
Very frequent – low severity
Spies et al. 2018
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Mixed severity regimes (e.g. Puget Lowlands)
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Fire Regimes
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• Fuels and topography become more important
• Occasional large patches of high severity in weather-driven fires
• Small to moderate events more common(i.e. more manageable)
• East side principles more applicable
Mixed severity regimes: Fine and Coarse Scale Mosaic
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Climate change and westside fire
Mote et al.Littell et al.
Rogers et al.
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BUT…
• This is relative to modern era • 8000+ year fire rotation
(mean return interval) • <2000 acres burned per year
• 400% increase still means • 2000+ year fire rotation
(mean return interval) • <8000 acres burned per year
Climate change and westside fire
Mote et al.Littell et al.
Rogers et al.
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BUT…
• This is relative to modern era • 8000+ year fire rotation
(mean return interval) • <2000 acres burned per year
• 400% increase still means • 2000+ year fire rotation
(mean return interval) • <8000 acres burned per year
Summer droughts will
Ignitions will likely
Major wind events will ?
Climate change and westside fire
Mote et al.Littell et al.
Rogers et al.
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So, what do we do before a fire?
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So, what do we do before a fire?
Pre-fire management options Puget Lowlands (mixed severity)
West Cascades (high severity)
Small fire events Large fire events
✓
✓ ✓ ?
✓ ✓ ?
✓ ✓ ?
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So, what do we do before a fire?
Pre-fire management options Puget Lowlands (mixed severity)
West Cascades (high severity)
Small fire events Large fire events
Basic stand-level fuel reduction (thinning, surface fuels, ladder fuels) ✓
Promote species diversity within and across stands, include hardwoods ✓ ✓ ?
Promote structural diversity within and across stands when feasible ✓ ✓ ?
Fire-wise principles around high value resources (thinning, fuel breaks) ✓ ✓ ?
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So, what do we do before a fire?
Pre-fire management options Puget Lowlands (mixed severity)
West Cascades (high severity)
Small fire events Large fire events
Basic stand-level fuel reduction (thinning, surface fuels, ladder fuels) ✓
Promote species diversity within and across stands, include hardwoods ✓ ✓ ?
Promote structural diversity within and across stands when feasible ✓ ✓ ?
Fire-wise principles around high value resources (thinning, fuel breaks) ✓ ✓ ?
✓ ✓ ✓
✓ ✓ ✓
✓ ✓ ✓
✓ ✓ ✓
✓ ✓ ✓
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Pre-fire management options Puget Lowlands (mixed severity)
West Cascades (high severity)
Small fire events Large fire events
Basic stand-level fuel reduction (thinning, surface fuels, ladder fuels) ✓
Promote species diversity within and across stands, include hardwoods ✓ ✓ ?
Promote structural diversity within and across stands when feasible ✓ ✓ ?
Fire-wise principles around high value resources (thinning, fuel breaks) ✓ ✓ ?
Reduce other ecosystem stressors (invasives, fragmentation) ✓ ✓ ✓
Coordinate with adjacent landowners on fire management plans ✓ ✓ ✓
Limit human ignitions ✓ ✓ ✓
Aggressive wildfire detection ✓ ✓ ✓
Develop post-fire response strategies ✓ ✓ ✓
So, what do we do before a fire?
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During a firePuget Lowlands (mixed severity)
West Cascades (high severity)
Small fire events Large fire events
So, what do we do during a fire?
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During a firePuget Lowlands (mixed severity)
West Cascades (high severity)
Small fire events Large fire events
Aggressive suppression of wildfires while event is still small ? ✓ ✓
Permit wildfire when risk to other values is low ✓ ?
So, what do we do during a fire?
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So, what do we do after a fire?
Post-fire management optionsPuget Lowlands(mixed severity)
West Cascades (high severity)
Small fire events Large fire events
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Post-fire management optionsPuget Lowlands(mixed severity)
West Cascades (high severity)
Small fire events Large fire events
Assess fire impacts relative to management objectives (can be + or - ) ✓ ✓ ✓
Leverage natural regeneration - inexpensive, diverse, can't replant everywhere ✓ ✓ ✓
Planting: promote species diversity within and across stands, consider hardwoods ✓ ✓ ✓
Promote structural diversity within and across stands when feasible ✓ ✓ ✓
Coordinate post-fire activities with adjacent landowners ✓ ✓ ✓
Use events as learning opportunities (research, monitoring, trials, adaptive mgt.) ✓ ✓ ✓
So, what do we do after a fire?
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DR
M; o
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s.o
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Thanks!
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Large fires couldn’t happen today, right?
Fire suppression?
Modern infrastructure?
Fuels management?
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Large fires couldn’t happen today, right?
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The M.O. of large westside fires
Three factors coincide:
1) Dry, late summer conditions
2) Ignition source
3) Synoptic east wind event
24-72 hoursTillamook Burn: 200,000 acres in 24 hrs
Yacolt Complex: 30 miles in 36 hrs
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→ During wind event, a non-factorFire suppression?
Modern infrastructure?
Fuels management?
Large fires couldn’t happen today, right?
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Large fires couldn’t happen today, right?
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Large fires couldn’t happen today, right?
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→ During wind event, a non-factor
→ Largest events burn through
Fire suppression?
Modern infrastructure?
Fuels management?
Large fires couldn’t happen today, right?
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→ During wind event, a non-factor
→ Largest events burn through
Fire suppression?
Modern infrastructure?
Fuels management?
Large fires couldn’t happen today, right?
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→ During wind event, a non-factor
→ Largest events burn through
Fire suppression?
Modern infrastructure?
Fuels management?
Large fires couldn’t happen today, right?
![Page 67: Western Washington wildfires: Managing the risk...Nov 05, 2019 · Daniel Donato and Joshua Halofsky Washington State Department of Natural Resources November 2019. Wildfires between](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/611095162e68665b9334af93/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
Not a fuel-limited system
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→ During wind event, a non-factor
→ Largest events burn through
→ Less relevant on west side
Fire suppression?
Modern infrastructure?
Fuels management?
Large fires couldn’t happen today, right?
![Page 69: Western Washington wildfires: Managing the risk...Nov 05, 2019 · Daniel Donato and Joshua Halofsky Washington State Department of Natural Resources November 2019. Wildfires between](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/611095162e68665b9334af93/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
The future: Climate change
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Three factors coincide:
1) Dry, late summer conditions
2) Ignition source
3) Synoptic east wind event
24-72 hours
The future: Climate change
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Three factors coincide:
1) Dry, late summer conditions
2) Ignition source
3) Synoptic east wind event
24-72 hours
The future: Climate change
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Causes of western Washington fires
-DNR Wildfire Division
Human
Lightning
-WA State Office of Financial Management, 2017
Population increase of ~2.5 million between 2010-2040 across Washington
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Three factors coincide:
1) Dry, late summer conditions
2) Ignition source
3) Synoptic east wind event
24-72 hours
The future: Climate change
![Page 74: Western Washington wildfires: Managing the risk...Nov 05, 2019 · Daniel Donato and Joshua Halofsky Washington State Department of Natural Resources November 2019. Wildfires between](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/611095162e68665b9334af93/html5/thumbnails/74.jpg)
Three factors coincide:
1) Dry, late summer conditions
2) Ignition source
3) Synoptic east wind event
24-72 hours
?
The future: Climate change
![Page 75: Western Washington wildfires: Managing the risk...Nov 05, 2019 · Daniel Donato and Joshua Halofsky Washington State Department of Natural Resources November 2019. Wildfires between](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/611095162e68665b9334af93/html5/thumbnails/75.jpg)