Western Area Power Administration RMR & LAP Updates · 2019 CAMU Annual Conference | 1 Western Area...

2019 CAMU Annual Conference | 1

Western Area Power AdministrationRMR & LAP Updates

2019 CAMU Annual ConferenceJuly 11, 2019 | Delta, CO

Bob LangenbergerPower Marketing Advisor


Agenda

• WAPA Wide Updates• NWPP Reserve Sharing Group• SPP Reliability Coordinator Transition• Fiber Optic Partnerships Assessment• Energy Imbalance Markets in the West• LAP & PS-ED Hydrology• LAP Power Marketing & Rates Updates


WAPA Wide Updates


Tactical Action Plan


Here we go again:2020 Budget Proposal Headlines

• “President Trump renews effort to sell grid assets of PMAs, TVA” –APPA (3/11/19)

• “Budget Proposal Sends Mixed Signals on Development in Rural Communities” – America’s Electric Cooperatives (3/12/19)

• “Trump’s Budget Would Hurt Co-ops by Selling Off Federal Dams, Transmission Lines” – America’s Electric Cooperatives (3/18/19)

• “Lawmakers urged to drop plan to sell PMA, TVA grid assets” –APPA (5/13/19)

• 63 Members of Congress sign letter opposing the budget request to sell transmission assets of PMAs and TVA. (5/9/19)

• “Senators oppose auctioning off BPA transmission assets” – KTVZ News Channel 21 (5/20/19)

• “Western Caucus Fights To Prevent Sale of PMA and TVA Assets” –Congressional Western Caucus (5/9/19)


Divesture of the Power Marketing Administration’s Transmission Assets – A Refresher

• 2020 Budget Proposal – Budget proposes to sell the PMA’s transmission assets for third

year in a row• 4th Administration to propose selling Federal power assets

• 1986 – President Reagan– Proposed selling the PMAs to the highest bidder

• 1995 – President Clinton– Proposal to privatize the PMAs

• 2013 – President Obama– Proposal to reduce or eliminate the Federal government’s role in programs

such as TVA, which have achieved their original objectives and no longer require Federal participation

• Requires authorization from Congress– Senators and House Members have already begun opposing the

proposal


New RMR & CRSP Leadership Team Members

• Senior Vice President & Rocky Mountain Regional Manager– Dawn Roth Lindell

• Vice President of Transmission Service for CRSP, DSW, & RMR– Pete Heiman

• Vice President of Operations for CRSP, DSW, & RMR– Jonathon Aust

• Vice President of Power Marketing for CRSP– Tim Vigil

• RMR Contracts & Energy Services Manager– Parker Wicks


NWPP Reserve Sharing Group


Reserve Sharing Group Change

• Why are we in a reserve sharing group?– Being in a reserve sharing group

allows for a group of utilities to share the overall reserve requirement, thus decreasing the amount of reserves an individual utility has to carry

• BAL-002-WECC-2a Focuses on Contingency Reserves– Each BA or RSG shall carry reserves to

meet 3% of load plus 3% of generation


Where are we now?• WACM Balancing Authority (BA) currently resides in the

Rocky Mountain Reserve Group (RMRG)

• RMRG is based on your pro-rata share of the groups’ MSSC (Most Severe Single Contingency)– Equals roughly 5% for WAPA’s hydro name plate capacity– Based on peaks and is updated each quarter

• RMRG MSSC to increase significantly in 2019/2020– Currently 805 MW (Comanche 3)– Increase to ~1200-1400 MW when new Rush Creek Wind Farm

comes on-line


Where are we going?

• NWPP will start performing reserve sharing group functions for WACM September 3rd of 2019

• NWPP is using the 3 and 3 calculation – 3% of Load and 3% of Generation

• NWPP also uses real-time calculations instead of peaks

• Members also obligated to respond to a larger footprint of events, but only up to BA’s reserve obligation


Why are we moving Reserve Sharing Groups?

• A vote was held by RMRG members in October of 2018 to terminate the RMRG group

• Public Service of Colorado and WAPA submitted applications to join NWPP in Feb of 2019

• PSCO and WAPA signed agreements to join NWPP in April of 2019

• WAPA expects the change to result in up to a 30% hour-by-hour reduction in capacity held on the federal hydro plants for reserves


NWPP Implementation

• WAPA-NWPP Membership Agreement Signed April 29, 2019

• WAPA executing agreements with entities in WACM BA that would like to participate in NWPP reserve sharing as a BA sub-entity

• BA entities with less than ½ MW of reserve obligation to BA are considered di Minimis

• Federal hydropower allocations delivered over PSCo/WAPA NITS agreement will begin paying for reserves as ancillary service


Transition to SPP RC


Reliability Coordinator Service

• Feb. 26, 2018 – WAPA submitted notices of withdrawal to depart Peak Reliability Coordinator

• Jun. 5, 2018 – SPP announced it has sufficient interest to provide RC services in the Western Interconnection

– Plans to offer services by the end of 2019– Contingent on SPP becoming certified to be an RC in Western Interconnection and on meeting

other conditions

• Jun. 11, 2018 – WAPA submitted a formal request to SPP for RC services for the WACM and WAUW Balancing Authority Areas (BAA)

• Sept. 7, 2018 – WAPA & SPP executed agreement for SPP to provided RC Services for WACM BAA

– WAPA WALC & WAUW BAAs also executed agreements with SPP to provide RC Services

• Dec. 3, 2019 – SPP to begin providing RC Services to WAPA


Reliability Coordinators (Post Peak RC)


SPP RC Services in the West

• Arizona Electric Power Cooperative, Inc.• Black Hills Energy’s

– Black Hills Power, Inc.– Cheyenne Light, Fuel and Power Company– Black Hills Colorado Electric, Inc.

• City of Farmington, NM• Colorado Springs Utilities• El Paso Electric Company• Intermountain Rural Electric Association• Platte River Power Authority• Public Service Company of Colorado (Xcel Energy)• Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association• Tucson Electric Power• Western Area Power Administration (WAPA)

– WAPA Desert Southwest Region– WAPA Rocky Mountain Region– WAPA Upper Great Plains – West


Fiber Optic Partnerships


Fiber Optic Partnerships Background

American Broadband Initiative Reportby Dept of Commerce, National Telecommunications Information Administration

Assess Viability of Leasing DOE Dark Fiber - By April 2019, the Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) and Southwestern Area Power Administration (SWPA) in consultation with the Department of Energy Office of Electricity, will complete a feasibility assessment plan to determine if WAPA and SWPA excess fiber can be leased to their customers and broadband service providers. By December 2019, WAPA and SWPA will complete the feasibility assessment.

https://www.ntia.doc.gov/files/ntia/publications/american_broadband_initiative_milestones_report.pdf

https://www.ntia.doc.gov/files/ntia/publications/american_broadband_initiative_milestones_report.pdf


Fiber Optic PartnershipsFeasibility Assessment

Ensure WAPA fiber continues to meet power delivery

system needs

Support American Broadband Initiative & seek Customer

input

Ensure fiber optic partnership requests are addressed

consistently

Maintain the prioritization of “the beneficiary pays”

principle

WAPA Feasibility Assessment Principles


Feasibility Assessment Elements

Fiber Optic Partnerships

Feasibility Assessment

Grid Resilience

Legal Authorities

Fiber Asset Inventory

Lands and Rights of

Way Issues

Reliability Compliance

Current Agreements

Outage Issues

Cost Accounting

and Allocation


Fiber Optic Partnerships Timeline


Fiber Optic Partnership Customer Information

• For Fiber Optic Partnership reference materials and informationhttps://www.wapa.gov/About/keytopics/Pages/fiber-feasibility-assessment.aspx

• Fiber Feasibility Assessment Senior Sponsor: Kevin Howard

• Fiber Feasibility Assessment Project Manager: Kirsten McClure

[email protected]

https://www.wapa.gov/About/keytopics/Pages/fiber-feasibility-assessment.aspxmailto:[email protected]


Fiber Optic Partnerships Upcoming Customer Meetings

• July 31 – WAPA DSW Office, Phoenix, AZ• August 1 – WAPA RMR Office, Loveland, CO

• CRSP Contact: – Brent Osiek, [email protected]

• RMR Contact– Bob Langenberger, [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]


Energy Imbalance Markets in the West


Markets are here


WAPA YouTube Video SeriesMarkets Background Materials

• Link through WAPA:– https://www.wapa.gov/About/the-source/Pages/markets-west-workshop.aspx

• Or direct through YouTube:– https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLrO2CsTQFBKz_zWPkGL3WjJ3lZd0ntkAD

• Nine Modules– U.S. Bulk Electric System– Regulation of the Grid– Overview of WAPA– How the Western Interconnection Operates Today– Energy Market Primary– What is a Bi-lateral Market?– What is an Energy Imbalance Market?– What is a Fully Integrated Market?– Summary: Different Types of Market Constructs

https://www.wapa.gov/About/the-source/Pages/markets-west-workshop.aspxhttps://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLrO2CsTQFBKz_zWPkGL3WjJ3lZd0ntkAD


WAPA Hosts Markets in the West Workshop April 9-10, 2019


Energy Imbalance & Energy Imbalance Markets

Energy Imbalance Actual Production or

Usage

ScheduledProduction or

Usage

Today: WAPA handles imbalance for its balancing authorities• We use either hydro or bilateral agreements to handle EI• EI calculated and priced hourly• Region settles and bills each customer

Possible EIS Market Future: Market Operator handles imbalance• Market Operator optimizes market resources to supply EI • EI calculated and Locational Marginal priced every 5 minutes• Market Operator does some or all settlement and billing


Why is WAPA Interested in EIM?

Ensure reliable delivery of our hydropower while adjusting to a changing energy mix• Respond to customer feedback requesting WAPA to lead

organized market discussions• Mitigate energy imbalance resource constraints• Facilitate integration of variable resources• Enable participants who want to optimize their resources


SPP Reliability Coordinators in the West

• PEAK RC terminating RC services

• Parallel RC operations October and November

• SPP RC takes over Dec. 3, 2019

• Enables SPP to readily add EI Services to SPP RC members


California ISO EIM (Western EIM)

• BANC became active participant this year

• WAPA Sierra Nevada sub-BA within BANC is evaluating options


Energy Imbalance Service Options

• WAPA reviewed CAISO’s EIM in 2013• WAPA and others received WEIS proposal from SPP in June 2019

• Need to ensure reliable delivery of our hydropower in a changing energy landscape– We are looking at participation in an energy imbalance service and NOT

looking at joining a full market– Focus on longer-term solutions to meet our needs in a rapidly changing

environment– We will engage with stakeholders and document our decisions– Cost of doing nothing; the status quo cannot continue for the foreseeable

future with on-going additions of variable resources

• WAPA is considering CAISO’s EIM as well– Especially for Sierra Nevada


SPP Western Energy Imbalance Service (WEIS)

https://spp.org/weis


SPP WEIS Proposal

• SPP hosted two meetings in spring 2019 on high-level design of Western Energy Imbalance Service (WEIS)

• Webinar held June 25 on detailed proposal• SPP proposed market “go-live” Dec. 1, 2020

• One year after RC “go-live”

• Additional market participants may be added at approximate 6-month intervals after go-live

Critical mass commitmentJuly 26, 2019

RC go-liveDecember 1, 2019

Imbalance Market go-live

December 1, 2020


EI Service Current Status• WAPA continuing to review EI options for LAP and CRSP as well as WACM BA• WAPA will spend ~60 days in outreach and direct communications with its

LAP and CRSP customers regarding EI service– CRSP Customer Meeting – June 20– LAP Customer Webinar – June 26– WAPA anticipates decision by September 1– WAPA has requested extension to July 26th deadline on SPP WEIS proposal

• WAPA working with a several DSW customers and will participate in an energy imbalance study for that region

• Similarly, SNR is working with its customers

• This is NOT a decision regarding joining a full market which may or may not occur sometime in the future


LAP & PSMB-ED Hydrology


What a difference a year makes!


Upper Colorado SnowpackAbove Kremmling (CBT)(July 8, 2019)


Upper North Platte Basin Snowpack(July 8, 2019)


Big Horn River Basin Snowpack(July 8, 2019)


Snowpack Conditions MapUpper Colorado RegionJune 26, 2019


2019 LAP Precipitation Summary

SNOTEL Update ReportsPrecipitation

% of YTD Average(July 8th)

Big Horn River Basin 104%

North Platte River Basin 118%

Upper Colorado River Headwaters

122%


LAP Storage & Inflows (end of May 2019)

Reservoir Storage (End of May)

YTD Inflow(Oct. – May)

Current Year

% of Avg.

LastYear

% of Avg.

Current Year

% of Avg.

LastYear

% of Avg.

Big Horn River Basin (Wyoming)

103% 106% 110% 203%

North Platte River Basin (Wyoming)

120% 124% 104% 89%

Colorado Big Thompson(Colorado)

104% 121% 88% 115%


LAP Hydrology Summary -

• Reservoir Storage – CBT & Big Horn slightly above average– North Platte above average

• YTD Inflows – Above average for Big Horn Basin & North Platte– Below Average for CBT

• Snow Pack– CBT & North Platte above average throughout season– Big Horn Basin slightly below average through the winter, but above

average entering the summer• YTD Precipitation

– North Platte & CBT above average– Big Horn Basin slightly above average


PS-MB Eastern Division Hydrology

Record river flows in March in Nebraska & Iowa


Nebraska Flooding

Columbus

North Bend


More March Flooding

Fremont

Waterloo


Levee Breaches


Missouri Mainstem System Storage (July 5, 2019)


The peak occurred on April 18 at 17.2” which is 105% of the normal April 15 peak.

As of July 4, the mountain snowpack has melted.

The peak occurred on April 17 at 14.9” which is 104% of the normal April 15 peak.


Annual Runoff Above Sioux City, IAJune 2019 Forecast 49.9 MAF would be the 2nd highest

runoff year in 121 years of record keeping.

2019Historic Drought

Periods


PS-MB Eastern Division HydrologySummary(End of June 2019)

Current Year% of Avg.

LastYear

% of Avg.

Main Stem ReservoirStorage (End of June) 115% 115%

Annual Inflow AboveSioux City 197%

(Forecast)163%


Mainstem System GenerationMillion Megawatt HoursJuly 1, 2019 Forecast

Projected power production of 13.3 BKWhrs (average is 9.4 BKWhrs)


LAP Power Marketing & Rates Updates


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LAP GROSS GENERATION AT PLANT(less CBT pumping)

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CBT Project North Platte River Bighorn Basin Fry-Ark Project

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Gross Gen - Annual

LAP Gross Generation at Plant (GWH)from USBR Annual Operating Plan reports or PO&M59 reportsprojectedprojectedUSES LAPGEN18-20mos18Jul file that uses 3-yr planslatest

Jun-18Jun-1830 yearPost-89droughtPost-89

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Mt. Elbert *6.140.130.255.139.724.316.923.017.534.432.438.350.234.962.534.353.630.340.537.443.331.926.326.224.448.631.556.646.734.347.641.918.240.832.534.642.927.743.044.337.338.541.137.358.2

Green Mtn.47.641.228.149.566.928.733.092.7110.188.076.653.653.936.740.233.042.153.046.055.996.984.357.269.947.532.324.818.127.622.029.660.764.271.551.078.033.125.794.477.661.459.338.642.848.751.652.057.939.850.4

Willow Cr. pump-5.5-2.9-11.8-11.7-7.1-2.2-9.8-9.0-1.0-5.2-1.3-6.1-8.3-4.7-4.9-7.5-4.0-9.9-6.3-10.0-0.8-0.8-3.7-5.8-2.3-4.5-1.1-8.7-2.9-12.2-6.8-7.9-12.9-11.6-9.7-0.7-3.5-8.9-10.8-0.1-9.4-11.0-5.3-8.3-8.5-6.4-6.4-5.4-7.1-8.6

Farr(Granby) pump-34.5-45.1-41.1-34.8-25.2-40.3-39.4-22.6-21.0-28.6-27.3-30.5-33.0-38.8-35.8-31.6-28.4-28.4-30.7-29.4-19.2-20.5-22.7-21.0-26.7-34.9-43.0-27.9-32.8-25.5-36.6-36.1-35.2-32.2-32.2-26.9-36.9-35.4-25.2-13.7-30.8-25.8-27.7-29.3-31.4-29.9-29.5-26.8-33.1-37.9

Marys Lake52.245.630.122.644.243.528.728.748.842.344.044.048.438.135.134.137.232.042.334.839.535.926.839.342.843.116.338.718.339.041.146.040.039.341.747.440.135.416.540.332.338.643.347.136.936.235.636.5

Estes160.8135.6121.188.367.1115.1110.273.374.6129.1124.3109.0113.9122.295.690.189.991.795.9101.692.7111.392.171.898.5108.7113.776.0107.770.8121.4103.2125.6109.1102.2110.6126.2104.492.850.4114.2113.2110.8111.5122.5100.699.393.3103.5188.6

Pole Hill242.0241.7199.7148.2204.7212.9126.5150.5192.1147.886.4163.9202.6180.2170.1158.5178.6178.5206.2130.6165.7153.3147.9162.1152.9182.0153.6180.1150.4198.0184.4173.9188.1184.9196.9184.1177.5189.2110.2187.3174.0142.8189.9195.7172.2171.4167.0172.6

Flatiron 1&2494.4300.4298.1249.2199.4251.0260.1162.6216.1265.2226.3224.8244.7264.2234.1214.6199.8237.3235.8253.7166.3208.7195.9186.4200.5214.8222.6193.0229.1189.1257.9241.7213.3235.7237.3253.4245.2243.2242.7152.0240.8218.3210.3227.1242.1222.4220.1213.3219.8559.8

Flatiron 30.20.00.02.00.60.62.00.10.40.20.30.70.50.00.10.00.00.30.00.00.00.00.02.80.10.00.00.00.00.00.80.00.00.60.92.51.11.71.10.00.00.316.01.30.50.40.40.30.21.5

Flatiron 3 pump-27.9-32.4-28.2-27.0-19.7-27.6-31.9-16.5-30.0-18.8-29.8-23.5-40.3-22.1-23.1-24.2-21.9-27.1-30.1-26.4-7.9-29.1-26.0-28.6-37.0-31.7-36.7-19.5-25.1-23.2-36.1-24.0-39.9-30.5-30.4-41.6-44.1-31.1-36.6-18.1-33.4-37.40.0-40.7-34.5-29.4-29.3-24.4-30.4-33.5

Big Thompson15.512.114.212.115.312.55.68.811.412.511.911.98.613.011.911.910.212.010.414.212.413.77.19.09.510.64.310.110.08.59.81.85.510.89.510.55.38.22.04.35.58.31.47.17.29.08.811.38.118.1

Seminoe98.8140.7172.5174.3118.2112.5205.7207.6170.5204.6112.8108.9109.986.499.482.970.8138.0119.7194.3209.7176.1179.4120.0119.975.881.363.5108.9124.196.8115.8161.7155.3191.7118.190.8122.0117.9145.7129.5105.3145.7150.7123.8124.8135.7106.8

Kortes261.4112.0164.2154.4186.8123.4133.4198.6196.8160.9206.7120.5122.2122.4103.9114.799.8122.2147.8122.0176.9194.8169.8160.1119.5124.086.7100.684.0125.9151.4123.5140.8171.1150.7118.4127.8113.3132.4107.8143.8113.2115.7148.1155.2129.7130.2141.2122.8297.5

Fremont Canyon287.6261.8220.6277.8314.9268.0238.3236.7328.2317.4297.3239.4179.4194.1174.6184.4185.7177.0233.0138.6297.6326.5333.3275.5285.6260.4178.5152.4144.7176.7214.7174.0162.1171.2243.4291.6179.5147.9140.3180.1231.3290.7239.9231.7235.6210.8212.5232.6192.0243.5

Alcova135.0125.1103.1129.7154.1118.6103.5152.3187.8176.4162.6108.5119.4115.482.384.484.881.6125.862.4135.9156.3151.8124.4126.4118.979.076.470.390.3115.292.582.583.6133.5166.2132.593.676.278.8109.2134.4109.2124.2125.2106.1105.3109.093.5123.3

Glendo87.379.872.675.690.463.957.296.0127.1101.7113.587.778.565.948.063.751.772.776.078.4104.2131.8112.1112.791.972.744.546.646.456.969.558.769.769.1101.1162.691.454.983.470.8100.2108.778.089.288.579.880.485.162.694.6

Guernsey26.021.921.421.822.817.122.922.627.326.231.227.720.816.110.015.713.010.918.818.722.724.727.423.724.020.111.24.510.212.315.514.617.415.121.026.218.59.116.518.618.412.416.519.116.016.916.818.614.526.9

Pilot Butte1.62.82.72.62.63.63.63.94.53.12.94.02.34.44.54.73.22.00.00.00.00.03.13.13.13.57.025 years

Boysen90.665.363.184.782.964.364.5113.398.072.889.284.963.039.565.976.561.965.755.465.486.992.696.0101.863.347.126.225.630.156.657.539.140.967.074.963.932.338.558.665.467.886.379.590.791.260.461.076.845.387.2

Shoshone35.423.426.440.06.95.720.223.314.623.021.824.423.622.923.315.015.318.521.819.020.320.622.522.818.417.417.620.219.317.091.719.915.616.822.322.319.619.924 years

Buffalo Bill0.321.758.370.753.596.7110.583.1108.979.344.838.544.447.756.654.441.670.284.466.879.970.151.594.867.656.818.9122.9112.898.261.961.967.156.269.724 years

Spirit Mtn.0.00.04.212.114.517.116.816.912.312.814.917.014.415.816.314.516.715.913.818.217.715.318.917.315.515.718.218.614.014.09.215.219.621 yearsNot included in Post-89 Marketing Plan

Heart Mtn.39.835.929.844.323.522.244.550.150.344.215.334.621.420.623.520.91.31.85.010.216.017.717.721.215.217.417.318.29.17.015.914.216.618.719.016.116.218.317.418.318.322.822.725.624.915.815.413.515.055.0

1/2 Yellowtail **596.3628.3523.9470.6404.3264.7477.4632.7557.0400.1501.2416.6340.4227.4344.5452.3379.4407.6377.1453.7565.9652.6554.2658.7363.9255.9182.5157.0161.5256.7287.5182.7349.1442.9436.4522.7322.9211.7510.0397.1341.3495.7583.5463.7455.0376.4383.0484.6264.0448.9

Fry-Ark Project0.00.00.00.00.00.00.06.140.130.255.139.724.316.923.017.534.432.438.350.234.962.534.353.630.340.537.443.331.926.326.224.448.631.556.646.734.347.641.918.240.832.534.642.927.743.044.337.338.541.137.358.2

CBT Project0.00.0650.6703.1667.7557.4468.1586.7586.2444.6539.8683.3571.1470.3547.9621.5536.4491.5480.3544.7531.5608.1505.8572.8489.1459.2491.5491.0509.7411.0532.4398.2577.0564.9540.5581.5552.8624.4557.9525.4585.0379.1575.9531.5525.6544.7589.4527.3523.2521.9509.8738.4

North Platte River0.00.0797.3699.4722.6831.8943.3709.2667.8911.91,074.8953.11,015.9696.6629.2623.8505.2562.3517.9535.2739.4539.8931.61,043.8970.5875.8767.4716.0475.7461.8419.1571.0690.4560.1588.3671.8805.0956.7667.8509.6570.8574.0748.6788.9664.5758.0771.1667.2670.2722.2592.2785.8

Bighorn Basin596.3628.3165.8124.6643.2639.6517.6351.2586.4796.1705.3517.1605.7536.1424.8287.5433.9551.6472.8556.3534.1604.2804.2913.3796.4935.5564.6403.7296.3277.7288.3417.6454.8317.4513.9652.2635.8714.8477.1355.3716.3586.6518.5730.9844.2726.6704.6553.8560.7673.9419.0687.4

PSMBP-WD Total596.3628.31,613.71,527.12,033.52,028.81,929.01,647.11,840.42,152.62,319.92,153.52,192.71,703.01,601.91,532.81,475.51,605.41,471.01,636.21,805.01,752.12,241.62,529.92,256.02,270.51,823.51,610.71,281.71,150.51,239.81,386.81,722.21,442.41,642.71,905.51,993.62,295.91,702.81,390.31,872.11,539.71,843.02,051.22,034.32,029.32,065.11,748.41,754.11,918.01,520.92,211.6

LAP Total596.3628.31,613.71,527.12,033.52,028.81,929.01,653.21,880.52,182.82,375.02,193.22,217.01,719.91,624.91,550.31,509.91,637.81,509.31,686.41,839.91,814.62,275.92,583.52,286.32,311.01,860.91,654.01,313.61,176.81,266.01,411.21,770.81,473.91,699.31,952.22,027.92,343.51,744.71,408.51,912.91,572.21,877.62,094.12,062.02,072.42,109.41,785.61,792.51,959.21,558.22,269.8

The annual marketed gross energy was 2,020 GWH until 1990.

surplus/deficit-1,423.7-1,391.7-406.3-492.913.58.8-91.0-366.8-139.5162.8355.0173.2197.0-300.1-395.1-469.7-759.9-632.0-760.5-583.4-429.9-455.26.1313.716.541.2-408.9-615.8-956.2-1,093.0-1,003.8-858.6-499.0-795.9-570.5-317.6-241.973.7-525.1-861.4-356.9-697.6-392.2-175.7-207.8-197.5-160.4-484.2-477.3-310.7-711.60.0

2.3%2.0%2.5%3.0%1.9%3.4%1.5%2.1%1.3%1.8%2.0%2.6%2.4%2.2%2.1%1.7%2.7%2.1%3.3%2.4%1.7%2.0%2.4%1.3%2.1%2.1%1.8%2.0%1.3%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.4%2.6%

*This is just the Mt. Elbert energy attributed to Reclamation's scheduling of Project water through the Mt. Elbert plant35.5%30.0%31.8%32.3%28.9%33.5%22.2%22.2%21.4%19.9%26.4%29.7%38.8%34.9%42.1%28.2%32.6%38.3%31.8%29.8%27.3%26.6%32.0%37.3%30.6%24.1%30.7%25.4%25.5%26.3%27.9%29.5%29.2%26.6%32.7%32.5%

via the Mt. Elbert Conduit which runs from Turquoise Lake to the Mt. Elbert Forebay.33.5%34.3%34.3%31.7%40.2%29.7%40.9%40.4%42.4%37.9%41.2%43.3%36.2%39.2%33.1%40.5%39.0%38.0%34.6%34.4%39.7%40.8%38.3%36.2%29.8%36.5%39.9%37.7%32.2%36.6%36.6%37.4%37.4%36.9%38.0%34.6%

**This is half of the total Yellowtail generation. The other half is marketed by P-SMBP Eastern Division28.7%33.7%31.3%33.0%29.0%33.3%35.3%35.4%34.8%40.5%30.3%24.4%22.6%23.6%22.8%29.6%25.7%21.5%30.2%33.4%31.4%30.5%27.3%25.2%37.4%37.3%27.6%34.9%40.9%35.1%33.4%31.0%31.3%34.4%26.9%30.3%

Task 2 / Table 101,382.41,363.01,519.91,762.91,753.41,691.51,286.41,261.51,305.41,131.01,152.81,064.21,150.11,333.91,226.11,543.91,730.51,577.21,462.51,340.51,274.41,032.9918.9995.11,037.31,345.51,181.51,188.31,339.01,451.71,661.11,274.21,091.81,231.81,036.81,410.61,429.41,292.31,419.01,476.61,273.81,272.91,337.51,165.71,673.4PSMBP - WD w/o Yellowtail and proposed Shoshone (less CBT pumping, Mt. Elbert, Yellowtail, Shoshone, Buffalo Bill, & Spirit Mtn)

Task 2 / Table 10264.7477.4632.7557.0400.1501.2416.6340.4227.4344.5452.3379.4407.6377.1453.7565.9652.6554.2658.7363.9255.9182.5157.0161.5256.7287.5182.7349.1442.9436.4522.7322.9211.7510.0397.1341.3495.7583.5463.7455.0376.4383.0484.6264.0448.91/2 of Yellowtail

Task 2 / Table 100.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.327.478.594.068.1119.7132.3107.5132.5102.268.153.559.766.278.473.461.990.8106.989.698.387.569.1115.086.973.8110.6142.8128.3115.084.284.286.776.169.7Proposed Shoshone

Task 2 / Table 1021.021.021.021.021.021.021.021.021.021.021.021.021.021.021.021.021.021.021.021.021.021.021.021.021.021.021.021.021.021.021.021.021.021.021.021.021.021.021.021.021.021.021.021.021.0Power Interference (energy returned to WAPA by Denver and CO Springs for junior diversions upstream of Green Mtn. Reservoir)

Task 2 / Table 10-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8Losses due to Power System Regulation

Task 2 / Table 101,651.31,844.62,156.82,324.12,157.72,196.91,707.21,606.11,537.01,479.71,609.61,475.21,640.41,809.21,752.12,233.72,519.62,243.12,257.91,810.81,602.61,273.11,139.81,227.01,376.61,710.61,430.31,632.41,893.01,981.92,286.31,688.81,376.81,861.01,525.01,829.92,040.02,022.82,015.32,050.71,738.61,744.31,913.01,510.02,196.2PSMBP - WD TOTAL

70.181.148.152.052.658.460.181.665.663.863.354.365.467.165.827.950.452.455.466.071.180.856.160.860.979.568.088.074.372.369.284.575.472.631.973.674.232.978.374.465.765.256.670.680.0CBT pumping

0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.04.212.114.517.116.816.912.312.814.917.014.415.816.314.516.715.913.818.217.715.318.917.315.515.718.218.614.014.09.215.219.6Spirt Mtn. Generation not included in Post-89 Marketing Plan

IF Spirit Mtn were markerted

Table 1 / Fdrl Rgstr1,721.41,925.72,204.92,376.12,210.32,255.31,767.31,687.71,602.61,543.51,672.91,529.51,705.81,876.31,822.12,273.72,584.52,312.62,330.11,893.71,686.01,366.71,210.81,304.81,451.91,805.91,514.61,734.91,984.02,070.12,369.31,791.51,469.91,948.91,575.81,920.82,129.72,071.42,111.82,143.71,818.31,823.41,978.81,595.72,295.8At plant energy PSMBP-WD

Table 1 / Fdrl Rgstr6.140.130.255.139.724.316.923.017.534.432.438.350.234.962.534.353.630.340.537.443.331.926.326.224.448.631.556.646.734.347.641.918.240.832.534.642.927.743.044.337.338.541.137.358.2At plant energy Fry-Ark (flow through generation)

Table 1 / Fdrl Rgstr1,727.51,965.82,235.12,431.22,250.02,279.61,784.21,710.71,620.11,577.91,705.31,567.81,756.01,911.21,884.62,308.02,638.12,342.92,370.61,931.11,729.31,398.61,237.11,331.01,476.31,854.51,546.11,791.52,030.72,104.42,416.91,833.41,488.11,989.71,608.31,955.42,172.52,099.22,154.92,188.01,855.61,861.92,019.91,633.02,354.0At plant total energy

Table 1 / Fdrl Rgstr1,614.21,835.42,087.52,269.72,101.02,129.41,666.71,597.81,513.31,473.11,592.31,463.51,638.91,784.61,758.52,155.52,463.12,188.32,213.71,803.11,614.21,305.71,155.01,242.81,378.61,731.01,443.61,671.81,895.81,965.22,256.71,711.61,389.91,857.71,501.61,825.92,028.51,960.62,012.02,042.91,732.51,738.41,886.01,524.52,197.4Total energy at load (losses subtracted)

Table 1 / Fdrl Rgstr82.593.560.564.465.070.872.594.078.076.275.766.777.879.578.240.362.864.867.878.483.593.268.573.273.391.980.4100.486.784.781.696.987.885.044.386.086.645.390.786.878.177.669.083.092.4Project use loads (includes CBT pumping)

Table 1 / Fdrl Rgstr3.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.7Special use loads

Table 1 / Fdrl Rgstr1,528.01,738.22,023.32,201.62,032.32,054.91,590.51,500.11,431.61,393.21,512.91,393.11,557.41,701.41,676.62,111.52,396.62,119.82,142.21,721.01,527.01,208.81,082.81,165.91,301.61,635.41,359.51,567.71,805.41,876.82,171.41,611.01,298.41,769.01,453.61,736.21,938.21,911.61,917.61,952.41,650.71,657.11,813.31,437.92,101.3Total marketable energy at load (1,860 prior to 1990)

surplus/deficit-332.0-121.8163.3341.6172.3194.9-269.5-359.9-428.4-708.1-588.4-708.2-543.9-399.9-424.710.2295.318.540.9-380.3-574.3-892.5-1,018.5-935.4-799.7-465.9-741.8-533.6-295.9-224.570.1-490.3-802.9-332.3-647.7-365.1-163.1-189.7-183.7-148.9-450.6-444.2-288.0-663.5

PSMBP Western Division Gross Generation at Plant (doesn't include Spirit Mtn)

Post-89 Marketing Plan2,269.82,269.82,269.82,269.82,269.82,269.82,269.82,269.82,269.82,269.82,269.82,269.82,269.82,269.82,269.82,269.82,269.82,269.82,269.82,269.82,269.82,269.82,269.82,269.82,269.82,269.82,269.82,269.82,269.82,269.82,269.8Post-89 marketed for chart

Post-89 Average1,792.51,792.51,792.51,792.51,792.51,792.51,792.51,792.51,792.51,792.51,792.51,792.51,792.51,792.51,792.51,792.51,792.51,792.51,792.51,792.51,792.51,792.51,792.51,792.51,792.51,792.51,792.51,792.51,792.51,792.51,792.5Post-89 average for chart

CROD Post-20142162.52162.52162.52162.52162.52162.52162.52162.52162.52,162.52,162.52,162.52,162.52,162.52,162.52,162.52,162.52,162.52,162.52,162.52,162.52,162.52,162.52,162.52,162.52,162.52,162.52,162.52,162.52,162.52,162.52,162.52,162.52,162.52,162.52,162.52,162.52,162.52,162.5

Marketed Gross2040204020402040204020402040204020402040204020402040204020402040204020402040204020402040204020402040204020402040204020402040204020402040204020402040204020402040

chart-actuals

LAP GROSS GENERATION AT PLANT

CBT Project1982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018586.20000000000005444.60000000000008539.79999999999995683.30000000000007571.1470.29999999999995547.9621.49999999999989536.4491.49999999999994480.30000000000007544.69999999999993531.5608.1505.8572.80000000000007489.1459.2491.5491.00000000000006509.70000000000005411532.4398.2576.99999999999989564.89999999999986540.50000000000011581.5552.80000000000007624.4557.9525.40000000000009585.00000000000011379.09999999999997575.90000000000009531.45499999999993525.58999999999992North Platte River1982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018667.80000000000007911.91074.7999999999997953.11015.9696.60000000000014629.19999999999993623.79999999999995505.2562.30000000000007517.9535.20000000000005739.39999999999986539.79999999999995931.600000000000141043.8970.5875.80000000000007767.4716475.7461.79999999999995419.09999999999997571690.4560.1588.30000000000007671.80000000000007804.99999999999989956.69999999999993667.8509.6570.79999999999995574748.6788.86664.50299999999993Bighorn Basin1982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018586.4796.1705.3517.1605.70000000000005536.1424.79999999999995287.5433.9551.6472.79999999999995556.30000000000007534.1604.19999999999993804.19999999999993913.3796.40000000000009935.5564.59999999999991403.70000000000005296.3277.7288.3417.6454.8317.39999999999998513.90000000000009652.19999999999993635.79999999999995714.80000000000007477.09999999999997355.25716.3586.6518.5730.93200000000002844.21250000000009Fry-Ark Project198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201840.130.255.139.70000000000000324.316.8999999999999992317.534.432.438.29999999999999750.234.962.534.29999999999999753.630.340.537.443.331.926.326.224.448.631.556.646.69999999999999634.29999999999999747.641.918.20000000000000340.79999999999999732.534.642.88287499999999927.728999999999999

FISCAL YEAR

Gigawatt-hours

chart with FY19-20proj

LAP GROSS GENERATION AT PLANT(less CBT pumping)

with projected Oct 19 through Sept 20

CBT Project198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020586.20000000000005444.60000000000008539.79999999999995683.30000000000007571.1470.29999999999995547.9621.49999999999989536.4491.49999999999994480.30000000000007544.69999999999993531.5608.1505.8572.80000000000007489.1459.2491.5491.00000000000006509.70000000000005411532.4398.2576.99999999999989564.89999999999986540.50000000000011581.5552.80000000000007624.4557.9525.40000000000009585.00000000000011379.09999999999997575.90000000000009531.45499999999993525.58999999999992544.73500000000001589.40000000000009North Platte River198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020667.80000000000007911.91074.7999999999997953.11015.9696.60000000000014629.19999999999993623.79999999999995505.2562.30000000000007517.9535.20000000000005739.39999999999986539.79999999999995931.600000000000141043.8970.5875.80000000000007767.4716475.7461.79999999999995419.09999999999997571690.4560.1588.30000000000007671.80000000000007804.99999999999989956.69999999999993667.8509.6570.79999999999995574748.6788.86664.50299999999993758.03599999999994771.13099999999986Bighorn Basin198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020586.4796.1705.3517.1605.70000000000005536.1424.79999999999995287.5433.9551.6472.79999999999995556.30000000000007534.1604.19999999999993804.19999999999993913.3796.40000000000009935.5564.59999999999991403.70000000000005296.3277.7288.3417.6454.8317.39999999999998513.90000000000009652.19999999999993635.79999999999995714.80000000000007477.09999999999997355.25716.3586.6518.5730.93200000000002844.21250000000009726.57050000000004704.58299999999997Fry-Ark Project19821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202040.130.255.139.70000000000000324.316.8999999999999992317.534.432.438.29999999999999750.234.962.534.29999999999999753.630.340.537.443.331.926.326.224.448.631.556.646.69999999999999634.29999999999999747.641.918.20000000000000340.79999999999999732.534.642.88287499999999927.72899999999999943.0344.3Marketed2162.52162.52162.52162.52162.52162.52162.52162.52162.52162.52162.52162.52162.52162.52162.52162.52162.52162.52162.52162.52162.52162.52162.52162.52162.52162.52162.52162.52162.52162.52162.52162.52162.52162.52162.52162.52162.52162.52162.5

FISCAL YEAR

Gigawatt-hours

Post-89

POST-89 MARKETED GENERATION

WATER YEAROCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAYJUNJULAUGSEPTOTALwintersummer

Mt. Elbert6.05.65.55.55.45.44.61.13.74.95.84.658.233.524.8

Green Mtn.3.93.33.23.13.73.84.32.22.26.27.37.250.421.029.4

Willow Cr. pump-0.1-0.70.00.00.00.0-1.0-3.6-2.3-0.6-0.1-0.2-8.6-0.8-7.8

Granby pump-4.4-4.5-4.8-4.9-3.7-4.2-4.2-0.50.0-1.5-3.0-2.2-37.9-26.5-11.4

Marys Lake and

Estes20.119.420.220.214.015.618.414.97.214.214.99.5188.6109.579.1

Pole Hill and

Flatiron 1&252.049.952.252.136.340.448.150.053.955.943.225.8559.8282.9276.9

Flatiron 30.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.60.50.00.41.50.01.5

Flatiron 3 pump-3.8-4.1-4.2-4.4-3.6-3.8-3.6-3.1-0.8-1.2-0.5-0.4-33.5-23.9-9.6

Big Thompson2.10.00.00.00.00.00.53.33.53.73.02.018.12.116.0

Seminoe and

Kortes26.525.934.634.223.831.018.518.418.837.417.910.5297.5176.0121.5

Fremont Canyon9.415.113.814.012.814.323.922.629.133.232.223.1243.579.4164.1

Alcova8.08.07.27.26.57.29.211.815.515.715.311.7123.344.179.2

Glendo0.00.00.00.00.00.07.715.816.325.920.08.994.60.094.6

Guernsey0.50.00.00.00.00.03.04.84.64.84.74.526.90.526.4

Pilot Butte0.40.00.00.00.00.00.61.21.21.21.21.27.00.46.6

Boysen7.77.47.16.57.36.96.36.57.88.67.67.587.242.944.3

Shoshone and

Buffalo Bill3.51.31.21.41.31.54.610.012.114.210.88.169.710.159.7

Heart Mtn.4.64.54.64.64.04.44.54.84.74.84.84.755.026.728.3

1/2 Yellowtail31.939.338.936.435.935.436.435.046.648.033.132.0448.9217.8231.1

Fry-Ark6.05.65.55.55.45.44.61.13.74.95.84.658.233.524.8

CBT69.863.366.666.146.751.862.563.264.377.264.842.1738.4364.3374.1

North Platte44.449.055.655.443.152.562.373.484.3117.090.158.7785.8300.0485.8

Bighorn48.152.551.848.948.548.252.457.572.476.857.553.5667.8297.9370.0

LAP gen. At plant

less Project pumping168.2170.4179.5175.9143.7157.9181.7195.2224.7275.9218.2158.92,250.2995.61254.6

7%8%8%8%6%7%8%9%10%12%10%7%44%56%

Task 2 / Table 10126.9124.2133.9132.6101.1115.6136.2149.1162.3208.8168.5114.21,673.3PSMBP - WD w/o Yellowtail and proposed Shoshone (less CBT pumping, Mt. Elbert, Yellowtail, Shoshone, Buffalo Bill, & Spirit Mtn)

Task 2 / Table 1031.939.338.936.435.935.436.435.046.648.033.132.0448.91/2 of Yellowtail

Task 2 / Table 103.51.31.21.41.31.54.610.012.114.210.88.169.7Proposed Shoshone

Task 2 / Table 102.00.06.05.02.00.00.00.00.01.52.32.221.0Power Interference (energy returned to WAPA by Denver and CO Springs for junior diversions upstream of Green Mtn. Reservoir)

Task 2 / Table 10-0.3-0.2-0.3-0.3-3.0-2.50.4-2.4-4.6-3.1-0.2-0.3-16.8Losses due to Power System Regulation

Task 2 / Table 10163.9164.6179.7175.1137.3150.0177.5191.7216.4269.4214.5156.22,196.2PSMBP - WD TOTAL

-8.3-9.3-9.0-9.3-7.3-8.0-8.8-7.2-3.1-3.3-3.6-2.8-80.0CBT pumping

Table 1 / Fdrl Rgstr172.2173.9188.7184.4144.6158.0186.3198.9219.5272.7218.1159.02,276.2At plant energy PSMBP-WD

Table 1 / Fdrl Rgstr6.05.65.55.55.45.44.61.13.74.95.84.658.2At plant energy Fry-Ark

Table 1 / Fdrl Rgstr178.2179.5194.2189.9150.0163.4190.9200.0223.2277.6223.9163.62,334.4At plant total energy

Table 1 / Fdrl Rgstr166.3167.5181.2177.2139.9152.5178.2186.9208.4259.2209.0152.72,179.0Total energy at load (losses subtracted)

Table 1 / Fdrl Rgstr8.69.49.09.37.38.09.09.65.66.05.55.092.4Project use loads (includes CBT pumping)

Table 1 / Fdrl Rgstr0.30.30.40.60.40.40.30.20.20.20.20.23.7Special use loads

Table 1 / Fdrl Rgstr157.5157.7171.7167.3132.1144.1168.9177.0202.6253.1203.3147.62,082.9Total marketable energy at load (1,860 prior to 1990)

172.2173.9188.7184.4144.6158.0186.3198.9219.5272.7218.1159.02,276.2Gross Generation At-Plant minus Mt. Elbert generation plus Green Mtn interference minus Regulation adjustment and without Project Pumping

6.05.65.55.55.45.44.61.13.74.95.84.658.2Mt. Elbert generation

178.2179.5194.2189.9150.0163.4190.9200.0223.2277.6223.9163.62,334.4At plant energy PSMBP-WD

166.3167.5181.2177.2139.9152.5178.2186.9208.4259.2209.0152.72,179.1Total energy at load (losses subtracted)

8.69.49.09.37.38.09.09.65.66.05.55.092.4Project use loads (includes CBT pumping)

0.30.30.40.60.40.40.30.20.20.20.20.23.7Special use loads

157.5157.7171.7167.3132.1144.1168.9177.0202.6253.1203.3147.62,083.0Total marketable energy at load (1,860 prior to 1990)

LAP Post-89 chart

LAP GROSS GENERATION AT PLANT

Less CBT Pumping

LAP Total199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720181509.91637.80000000000021509.31686.41839.89999999999961814.62275.92583.52286.300000000000223111860.89999999999991654.00000000000021313.61176.812661411.19999999999981770.81473.91699.30000000000021952.19999999999982027.89999999999992343.51744.69999999999981408.45000000000031912.89999999999991572.19999999999981877.60000000000012094.12987499999962062.0344999999998Post-89 Average1792.53741527480541792.53741527480541792.53741527480541792.53741527480541792.53741527480541792.53741527480541792.53741527480541792.53741527480541792.53741527480541792.53741527480541792.53741527480541792.53741527480541792.53741527480541792.53741527480541792.53741527480541792.53741527480541792.53741527480541792.53741527480541792.53741527480541792.53741527480541792.53741527480541792.53741527480541792.53741527480541792.53741527480541792.53741527480541792.53741527480541792.53741527480541792.53741527480541792.5374152748054

FISCAL YEAR (October - September)

GIGAWATT- HOURS


$0

$10,000,000

$20,000,000

$30,000,000

$40,000,000

$50,000,000

$60,000,000

$70,000,000

$80,000,000

$90,000,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

Ener

gy (

MW

h)

MWh LAP Energy Purchases

LAP Energy Purchases

Notes

MONTHLY

Sales Projections TabLink Columns F and G to updated Method of Payment file.

Change color to green for the updated cells and change the corresponding pricing row to green also.

Projections on right should match projections and actuals on left.

Purchase Projections TabLink Columns H, I, J, and L to updated Method of Payment file.


Projections on right should match projections and actuals on left. Percentages in column R should be zero for all months.

Generation Data TabUpdate current year, current month "Actual Generation" row with BOR's (Kathy Bricker e-mail WDGEN?? file) with month highlighted in green on spreadsheet.

Columns in black on WDGEN spreadsheet are actual numbers, green highlighed column is most current update, columns highlighed in blue are projections.

BOR numbers include station service. We use BOR's numbers until we get actual gen numbers from John Gierard which do not include station service. (Update with John's numbers usually in May and November.)

PRELIMINARY PRS

Sales Projections TabChange headers.

Ensure most current monthly updates to MOP have been completed and linked. (Link Columns F and G to updated Method of Payment file.)


Columns B&C for rows w/o actuals (yellow highlighted) copy in $'s and MW's from Projection Details (????) tab "Totals Sales MW" and "Totals Sales $" columns . Pricing should match what is being projected on Projection Details (????) tab.

Sales tabOnly update if there are pre-scheduled sales. Get this info from Chrystal Dean Rachelle Grubbs in Montrose. Usually don't have prescheduled sales. Normally just prescheduled purchases.

Purchase Projections TabChange Headers.

Ensure most current monthly updates have been completed and linked. (Link Columns H, I, J, and L to updated Method of Payment file.)

Columns B&F for rows w/o actuals (yellow highlighted) copy in $'s and MW's from Projection Details (20xx) tab "Total Purchase MWh" and "Total Purchase $". Pricing should match what is being proejcted on Projection Details (20xx) tab. Also for the ACTUAL Yellow highlighted columns H&L these should = the proejction columns, again to come up with projected pricing on Project Details (20xx) tab.

Columns C,D, I & J tabs should match MOP for Prior Year Actuals in highlighed yellow rows only.

PreSch PurchasesData comes from Chrystal Dean in Montrose this file should have summer pre-scheduled purchases. Enter $'s into column B and MWh's into column D. Everything else is a calculation.

Projections Detail (current year) tabUpdate "Original LAP Deficit" and "LAP Deficit" columns (B and C) with information from LAPGEN??-?? spreadsheet which projects current and 2 future years of generation (from John Gierard normally Nov-Dec Timeframe). Use SURPLUS/DEFICIT row on LAPGEN spreadsheet and only enter Deficit (negative) numbers into corresponding month on this spreadsheet. Do we do anything with pricing at this time?

Projection Details (future 2 years) tabsUpdate "Original LAP Deficit" and "LAP Deficit" columns (B and C) with information from LAPGEN??-?? spreadsheet which projects current and 2 future years of generation (from John Gierard normally Nov-Dec Timeframe). Use SURPLUS/DEFICIT row on LAPGEN spreadsheet and only enter Deficit (negative) numbers into corresponding month on this spreadsheet. Do we do anything with pricing at this time?

Generation Data TabChange column A cell names

For current year:

First Row: should remain with current rate set numbers (currently FY2010).

Second Row: Previous Fiscal Years Generation Numbers from LAPGEN??-?? File from John Gierard, normally file received from John in November of previous year. Use TOTAL GEN number from previous FY.

Third Row: Current LAPGEN??-?? File from John Gierard, normally file received Mar-April timeframe. Use TOTAL GEN number from current FY for the twelve months.

Fourth Row: For the first several months (normally Oct through April or May) use numbers from John's LAPGEN??-?? most current file through the month that he has actuals. Rest of the numbers are either blank or the estimate received from BOR. COLOR CODING: Numbers from John (w/o Station service). Numbers from BOR (Kathy Bricker-includes station service).

For Out Year Projections: Change cell names and update 2nd row of each out year projection with TOTAL GEN numbers from John's LAPGEN??-?? Most current File.

GenChart-Comparison FY??-??Update tab name with correct dates.Is this the only chart we update for the prelim?

Update Header of chart

Update series with current year and two outyears.

Update text boxes with Median for Prelim line.

FINAL PRS

Sales TabUpdate MOP and ensure links to Sales Tab. Should not have to update data for graphs.

Purchase Projections tabUpdate MOP and ensure links to Purchases Tab. Should not have to update data for graphs.

PreSch PurchasesNo update needed. Should already have both summer and winter projections entered as this time.

Projection Detail TabsUpdate generation deficit numbers from J. Gierards LAPGENFY-FYmosFYmon file (ex. LAPGEN14-16mos14Nov)

On tabs that are not CY, update generation deficit numbers in both Original and Estimate columns (numbers should match)

Questions& Updates

TabQuestion

FY 15 Actuals tabIs the prior year actuals kept in the current years file as a comparison?They are used in the "PP Summary" and "EY Summary" tabs to create historical avg %

FY 11 SummaryShould this tab be getting updated annually?Yes

FY 11 Summary MWhShould this tab be getting updated annually?Yes

Tracking-Data FileAre we still using this? It is two years behind. I will update if we still use it.Yes. The data is used to make the charts.

Updates

Sales & Purchases-FY2016Current for the Fiscal Year

PreSch PurchasesLinked the FY17 table to the Winter PreSch Purchases for 16-17 recv'd from Rachelle 9/22

Projection Details (2017) & (2018)Updated the Merch Function Trans Chg based on Tony's update 091216

Generation DataCurrent through October FY2017

Thea's Updates 3/28/18

Sales ProjectionsRenamed tab to 2018

Added mo reminder to link columns F&G to MoP, then change columns B&C. This is now up to date

Updated column A to FY18, changed this section's header to FY18

SalesRenamed tab to 2018

Notes tab indicate we might not have this data - Tamala doesn't think we have any data but will check with Rachelle.

Purchase ProjectionsRenamed tab to 2018

Changed header of first table to 2017

Added mo reminder to link columns H, I, J & L to MoP. This is now up to date.

Per notes (monthly) projections should match actuals, so I changed all projections through Jan. Column R now 0% for those months

PreSch PurchasesChanged header to show FY18 and info is from R Grubbs, deleted 092216 which was after R Grubbs

Changed headers of tables in row 5 to FY18, FY19 & FY20

I'm now receiving the PreSch Purchases from Rachelle and have added it to my monthly task sheet. Emailed Rachelle 4/26 to find out when she typically completes for winter and summer.

Projection Details - 2017 thru 2019Deleted 2017 tab, added FY20 by copying FY19 tab. I've used prior years projections into FYs 19 & 20 per Barb.

PP SummaryThere are no notes on this tab and the purple box to the right of the top table indicate an error in calcs. I've not updated anything here

EY SummaryI added a 2018 column(we'll need to update the averages once we add a FY18 tab) See next step below.

FY18 ActualsWe won't have a FY18 tab until we do the final PRS (per Tamala) Per Sheila: Yes, we won't need the FY18 Actuals tab until the FY is over

I've hidden the FY14 Actuals tab

I've added a FY18 actuals & added it to my monthly project sheet so it gets updated after MoP and after getting actuals from Kathy Bricker

Generation DataTo my mo projects, I've added to add Kathy's data to row 62. This is now up to date.

I've updated this tab to include projections for FY19 and FY20 from my Gierard projection recreation LAPGEN18-20mos18May

FY11 Summary Tabs (both)I've updated this to include FY 2018 using 17 PRS because we don't have a FY 18 Final PRS. Renamed to FY18 Summary

Chart 1 PP SalesUpdated through FY20.

Chart - PP MWh & $Deleted due to having computer issues (will be adding charts back when I'm able)

Chart - PP Whh & $ (2) Deleted

Chart - Sales MWh & $Deleted due to having computer issues (will be adding charts back when I'm able)

Chart-Sales MWh & $ (2)Deleted

Tracking-Data FileUpdated through FY20.

As long as MSRs are being used to update Chart 2, Chart 2 can't be updated past the estimates entered for 2018

GenChart Comparison FY15-17Deleted

GenChart Comparison FY13-FY (2)Updated to show FY18-20

GenChart FY18Deleted

GenChart FY15Renamed to FY18 and updated through FY18

Sales Projections-FY2018

LAP

Economy Energy Sales

FY 2018

FY 18 Projections

SCook: SCook:These sales are made possible by LAP timing and reselling overdeliveries of energy by customers (energy imbalance).FY 18 Actuals & Updated Projections

SCook: SCook:These sales are made possible by LAP timing, reselling prescheduled purchases that were not needed, overdeliveries of energy by customers (energy imbalance), and losses returns.Excess Hydro to CRODs

(For Prelim FY 18 PRS)through Sep 2018(booked as FES revenue)% of% of

TotalOriginal TotalOriginal

Energy ($)MWhEnergy ($)MWhEnergy ($)MWhEnergy $ProjectionMWhProjection

Oct-17$ 460,23232,2915.65%$ 460,23232,2917.11%$ - 0- 0$ 460,232100%32,291100%

Nov-17$ 296,77020,4483.58%$ 296,77020,4484.50%$ - 0- 0$ 296,770100%20,448100%

Dec-17$ 247,14816,2552.84%$ 247,14816,2553.58%$ - 0- 0$ 247,148100%16,255100%

Jan-18$ 179,15210,6891.87%$ 179,15210,6892.35%$ - 0- 0$ 179,152100%10,689100%

Feb-18$ 377,14025,6864.49%$ 377,14025,6865.65%$ - 0- 0$ 377,140100%25,686100%

Mar-18$ 790,19962,17610.87%$ 790,19962,17613.68%$ - 0- 0$ 790,199100%62,176100%

Apr-18$ 723,09976,67613.41%$ 723,09976,67616.87%$ - 0- 0$ 723,099100%76,676100%

May-18$ 1,494,567106,75515.88%$ 752,27688,30219.43%$ 312,10519,854$ 1,064,38171%108,156101%

Jun-18$ 1,892,049135,14621.03%$ 554,56242,0959.26%$ 365,03423,221$ 919,59649%65,31648%

Jul-18$ 773,82455,2738.31%$ 486,64920,8824.60%$ - 0- 0$ 486,64963%20,88238%

Aug-18$ 507,34036,2395.54%$ 570,32023,6355.20%$ - 0- 0$ 570,320112%23,63565%

Sep-18$ 585,85741,8476.53%$ 455,51635,2907.77%$ - 0- 0$ 455,51678%35,29084%

TOTAL$ 8,327,378619,481100.00%$5,893,063454,425100.00%$677,13943,075$ 6,570,20279%497,50080%

Fry-Ark %$212,34815,797$150,27311,588$122,8337,814$ 273,106129%19,402123%

Pick-Sloan %$8,115,030603,684$5,742,790442,837$554,30635,261$ 6,297,09678%478,09879%

Check$8,327,378619,481$5,893,063454,42521.3%of CROD$677,13943,075$ 6,570,20279%497,50080%

-29%-27%

Projected Sales Price Average Sales PriceDifference in PriceLAP Energy Price

Oct-17$ 14.25$14.25$0.00ERROR:#DIV/0!

Nov-17$ 14.51$14.51$0.00ERROR:#DIV/0!

Dec-17$ 15.20$15.20$0.00ERROR:#DIV/0!

Jan-18$ 16.76$16.76$0.00ERROR:#DIV/0!

Feb-18$ 14.68$14.68$0.00ERROR:#DIV/0!

Mar-18$ 12.71$12.71$0.00ERROR:#DIV/0!

Apr-18$ 9.43$9.43$0.00ERROR:#DIV/0!

May-18$ 14.00$8.52-$5.48$15.72

Jun-18$ 14.00$13.17-$0.83$15.72

Jul-18$ 14.00$23.30$9.30ERROR:#DIV/0!

Aug-18$ 14.00$24.13$10.13ERROR:#DIV/0!

Sep-18$ 14.00$12.91-$1.09ERROR:#DIV/0!

Year-Avg$ 13.44$12.97-$0.47-4%$15.72

Projections

Actual

&Z&F\&A6/28/18

LAPEconomy Energy SalesProjected Vs. Actuals

through Sep 20184300943040430704310143132431604319143221432524328243313433444602322967702471481791523771407901997230997522765545624866495703204555164300943040430704310143132431604319143221432524328243313433444602322967702471481791523771407901997230991494567.42960331031892049.1000320259773824.40910944541507340.19912315957585857.11089887691

LAPEconomy Energy SalesProjected Vs. Actuals(MWh)

through Sep 201843009430404307043101431324316043191432214325243282433134334432291204481625510689256866217676676883024209520882236353529043009430404307043101431324316043191432214325243282433134334432291204481625510689256866217676676106754.81640023645135146.3642880018555273.17207924609836238.58565165425541846.93649277692

LAPEconomy Energy SalesProjected Vs. Actuals

($)

FY 18 Actuals & Updated Projections4300943040430704310143132431604319143221432524328243313433444602322967702471481791523771407901997230991064381919596486649570320455516FY 18 Projections4300943040430704310143132431604319143221432524328243313433444602322967702471481791523771407901997230991494567.42960331031892049.1000320259773824.40910944541507340.19912315957585857.11089887691

LAPEconomy Energy SalesProjected Vs. Actuals(MWh)

FY 18 Actuals & Updated Projections4300943040430704310143132431604319143221432524328243313433443229120448162551068925686621767667610815665316208822363535290FY 18 Projections43009430404307043101431324316043191432214325243282433134334432291204481625510689256866217676676106754.81640023645135146.3642880018555273.17207924609836238.58565165425541846.93649277692

Sales (2018)

Pre-Scheduled LAP Sales

from Montrose

Total

LAP EnergyCumulativeLAP

Sales ($)SalesMWh

Oct-17$0

Nov-17$0

Dec-17$0

Jan-18$0

Feb-18$0

Mar-18$0

Apr-18$0

May-18$0

Jun-18$0

Jul-18$0

Aug-18$0

Sep-18$0

Total$0$00

F-A$0.000

P-S$0.000

Projected Sales Price as of ???

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17

Jan-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

May-18

Jun-18

Jul-18

Aug-18

Sep-18

Year-AvgERROR:#DIV/0!

Updated projections from data received from R. Grubbs

&Z&F\&A1/17/17

Purchase Projections-FY2018

LOVELAND AREA PROJECTS

FY 2018

Purchase Power and Transmission Expenses

FY 18 Projections

Schuster, Thea: Schuster, Thea:This table is always a copy and paste of the table to the right, up until the point this spreadsheet is copied and used in the Prelim PRS. In this case, this table will no longer be updated after Apr 18 actuals. FY 18 Actuals & Updated Projections

Schuster, Thea: Schuster, Thea:Actuals are linked to MoP as they happen.

Projections link to the table on the left until we get actuals to fill in and shade green.

This table should be completely shaded in green at the end of the FY.

(For Prelim FY 18 PRS)through Sep 2018(Differences Proj Vs. Act)

(Using Projected Purchase Prices and LAP MWh Deficit Based on FY 2018 Generation Projections and/or Actual Prescheduled Amounts)$ (14,686,120.28)

TotalTotalTotal

LAP EnergyP-S & F-AP-S & F-ACumulativeLAP LAP Energy

SCOOK: SCOOK:Includes generation deficits, timing purchases, purchases for undelivered energy-EI, and losses.P-S & F-AP-S & F-ACumulativeLAPLAP EnergyLAP

Purchases ($)Wheeling ($)Other ($)

scook: scook:Includes annual CRSP Transaction fees and Energy Imbalance credits due to customers for overdeliveries.PurchasesMWhPurchases ($)Wheeling ($)Other ($)

scook: scook:Includes Montrose Merchant fees, EI credits for overdeliveries, spinning reserves, and WSPC fees.PurchasesMWhPurchasesMWh

Oct-17$ 1,920,666$ 301,733$ 463,688$ 2,686,08785,945$ 1,920,666$ 301,733$ 463,688$ 2,686,08785,945$00Mt. Elbert down for Maintance0%

Nov-17$ 1,917,825$ 341,355$ 484,028$ 2,743,20884,899$ 1,917,825$ 341,355$ 484,028$ 2,743,20884,899$00Mt. Elbert down for Maintance0%

Dec-17$ 2,099,352$ 134,774$ 418,072$ 2,652,19890,693$ 2,099,352$ 134,774$ 418,072$ 2,652,19890,693$00Mt. Elbert down for Maintance0%

Jan-18$ 1,990,148$ 322,294$ 495,901$ 2,808,34376,658$ 1,990,148$ 322,294$ 495,901$ 2,808,34376,658$000%

Feb-18$ 650,952$ 334,705$ 476,201$ 1,461,85822,851$ 650,952$ 334,705$ 476,201$ 1,461,85822,851$000%

Mar-18$ 251,986$ 569,599$ 546,383$ 1,367,9689,422$ 251,986$ 569,599$ 546,383$ 1,367,9689,422$000%

Apr-18$ 199,710$ 293,740$ 552,913$ 1,046,3638,201$ 199,710$ 293,740$ 552,913$ 1,046,3638,201$000%

May-18$ 633,481

Schuster, Thea: Schuster, Thea:These projections are from the Projection Details (2018) tab and are hardcoded in, not linked.

Schuster, Thea: Schuster, Thea:This table is always a copy and paste of the table to the right, up until the point this spreadsheet is copied and used in the Prelim PRS. In this case, this table will no longer be updated after Apr 18 actuals. $ 422,391

Schuster, Thea: Schuster, Thea:These projections are from the FY17 MoP. We use the FY17 actuals as the projections for FY18.$ 493,716

Schuster, Thea: Schuster, Thea:These projections are from the FY17 MoP. We use the FY17 actuals as the projections for FY18.

Schuster, Thea: Schuster, Thea:Actuals are linked to MoP as they happen.

Projections link to the table on the left until we get actuals to fill in and shade green.

This table should be completely shaded in green at the end of the FY.

scook: scook:Includes annual CRSP Transaction fees and Energy Imbalance credits due to customers for overdeliveries.$ 1,453,60619,196$ 296,568$ 398,350$ 583,544$ 1,278,46211,395-$336,913-7,801-41%

Jun-18$ 1,010,109$ 511,746$ 982,539$ 2,351,34730,609$ 925,868$ 366,299$ 535,366$ 1,827,53327,313-$84,241-3,296-11%

Jul-18$ 851,458$ 3,061,195$ 806,228$ 4,589,87225,802$ 2,159,168$ 1,234,264$ 275,013$ 3,668,445$ 48,476$1,307,71022,67488%

Aug-18$ 964,079$ 716,588$ 658,055$ 2,192,64929,215$ 1,028,188$ 3,031,092$ 647,297$ 4,706,577$ 26,047$64,110-3,168-11%

Sep-18$ 754,769$ 381,165$ 490,796$ 1,810,08622,872$ 1,245,689$ 373,157$ 494,821$ 2,113,66746,510$490,92023,638103%

TOTAL$13,244,534$7,391,285$6,868,520$27,163,585506,363$ 14,686,120$ 7,701,362$ 5,973,227$28,360,709538,410$1,441,58632,0476%25.2%of CROD

FA est %$337,736$175,14712,912$ 374,496$ 152,31713,729$36,760817366,369$ 8,1272.4946616%

PS est %$12,906,799$6,693,373493,451$ 14,311,624$ 5,820,910524,681$1,404,82531,23014,108,026$ 203,59896.063671%

Check$13,244,534.40$6,868,520506,36311%6%5.31%6.33%

Weighted Average Purchase Price Weighted Average Purchase Price for FY 18Difference in Price

Oct-17$22.35$22.35$0.00

Nov-17$22.59$22.59$0.00

Dec-17$23.15$23.15$0.00

Jan-18$25.96$25.96$0.00

Feb-18$28.49$28.49$0.00

Mar-18$26.74$26.74$0.00

Apr-18$24.35$24.35$0.00

May-18$33.00$26.03-$6.97

Jun-18$33.00$33.90$0.90

Jul-18$33.00$44.54$11.54

Aug-18$33.00$39.47$6.47

Sep-18$33.00$26.78-$6.22

Year-Avg$26.16$27.28$1.124%

Projections

Actual

Note:

"Other" column includes Energy Imbalance Credits due to customers, WSPC fees, spinning, and PAC Ancillary Svc Charges.

In order to project EI in purchase power, we are assuming a LAP split here, even though there are actually some 100% costs included.

NOTE: Beginning in Dec2013, total transmission for the PSCO NITS contract is entered for budgeting purposes, but approximately $2.8M for FY14 will be recovered through Revenues. (Pass-through to customers)

&Z&F\&A6/28/18

LAPPURCHASE POWERProjected Vs. Actuals

(For Prelim FY 18 PRS)4300943040430714310243133431644319543226432574328843319433501920666191782520993521990148650952251986199710633481.199999999951010108.5499999999851457.75964078.5754769.4through Sep 20184300943040430714310243133431644319543226432574328843319433501920666191782520993521990148650952251986199710296568925868215916810281881245689

LAPPURCHASE POWERProjected Vs. Actuals($/MWh)

(For Prelim FY 18 PRS)43009430404307143102431334316443195432264325743288433194335022.3476176624585522.58948868655696923.1478945453342625.96138693939314728.48680582906656226.744427934621124.3519083038653833333333333through Sep 201843009430404307143102431334316443195432264325743288433194335022.3476176624585522.58948868655696923.1478945453342625.96138693939314728.48680582906656226.744427934621124.35190830386538326.02615182097411133.8984366418921444.54096872679264239.47433485622144626.783250913781984

LAPPURCHASE POWERProjected Vs. Actuals(MWh)

(For Prelim FY 18 PRS)43009430404307143102431334316443195432264325743288433194335085945848999069376658228519422820119196.39999999999830609.3525801.7529214.522871.8through Sep 20184300943040430714310243133431644319543226432574328843319433508594584899906937665822851942282011139527313484762604746510

LAPPURCHASE POWERProjected Vs. Actuals

($)

FY 18 Projections4300943040430714310243133431644319543226432574328843319433501920666191782520993521990148650952251986199710633481.199999999951010108.5499999999851457.75964078.5754769.4FY 18 Actuals & Updated Projections4300943040430714310243133431644319543226432574328843319433501920666191782520993521990148650952251986199710296568925868215916810281881245689

LAPPURCHASE POWERProjected Vs. Actuals($/MWh)

FY 18 Projections43009430404307143102431334316443195432264325743288433194335022.3476176624585522.58948868655696923.1478945453342625.96138693939314728.48680582906656226.744427934621124.3519083038653833333333333FY 18 Actuals & Updated Projections43009430404307143102431334316443195432264325743288433194335022.3476176624585522.58948868655696923.1478945453342625.96138693939314728.48680582906656226.744427934621124.35190830386538326.02615182097411133.8984366418921444.54096872679264239.47433485622144626.783250913781984

LAPPURCHASE POWERProjected Vs. Actuals(MWh)

FY 18 Projections43009430404307143102431334316443195432264325743288433194335085945848999069376658228519422820119196.39999999999830609.3525801.7529214.522871.8FY 18 Actuals & Updated Projections4300943040430714310243133431644319543226432574328843319433508594584899906937665822851942282011139527313484762604746510

PreSch Purchases

Pre-Scheduled LAP Purchases from Montrose

Information provided by Rachelle Grubbs

FY18

Schuster, Thea: Schuster, Thea:No FY18 Summer Purchases were made per Rachelle 7/25/18FY19FY20

TotalTotalTotal

PurchaseLAPPurchaseLAPPurchaseLAP

Price ($/MWh)PurchasesMWhPrice ($/MWh)PurchasesMWhPrice ($/MWh)PurchasesMWh

Oct-17$24$960,00040,000$27.67$896,40032,400

Nov-17$24$960,00040,000$27.80$1,390,00050,000

Dec-17$24$960,00040,000$28.92$867,50030,000

Jan-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

May-18

Jun-18

Jul-18

Aug-18

Sep-18

TOTAL$24.00$2,880,000120,000$28.06$3,153,900112,400ERROR:#DIV/0!$00

&Z&F\&A1/17/17

Projection Details (2018)

FY 2018 PROJECTIONS

(As of June 22, 2018)

PURCHASESSALES

Uses Actual Deficit Amounts from BOR through June 2018

Original Deficit Projections from BOR's LAPGEN18-20mos18Jul

Reduced for Average of Energy not purchased due to BA diversity

bwayker: bwayker:See FY15 Actuals Tab Column "Energy not purchased due to Diversity in BA"

0%

bwayker: bwayker:LAP timing is based on the fact that LAP knows they will be 66 gigs of energy short to meet CROD allocations. However, with EI and Loss overdeliveries, we may not have any LAP timing. We will assume that EI and Loss overdeliveres cover our LAP timing issues. Based on FY 17Based on FY 1715%

Cook, Sheila: Cook, Sheila:The historical averge of FY12-FY15 is ~34%, but in order to be more conservative and protect ourselves budget and rate-wise, we're going to use a plug of 15% for now.L & M 27 are pointing to a two year avg on the EY Summay tab

Original

Schuster, Thea: Schuster, Thea:This column will always contain projections.Actual

Schuster, Thea: Schuster, Thea:This column will match column B. (This changes to actuals from Kathy Bricker on the Prelim and Final PRS versions.)

Kathy's deficit amounts are entered here as positive amounts. Kathy's surplus amounts aren't added.

For months we don't have actuals because that time hasn't happened yet, we use projections as placeholders rather than 0s.ESTIMATEESTIMATE

LAPLAPSeasonalLAPEI&GILossesTotalCRSPTotalLAPEISeasonalTotalTotal

DeficitDeficitPrescheduleTimingUnderdeliveredUnderdeliveredPurchaseTransactionPurchaseAvgTimingOverdeliveriesPrescheduleSalesSales

MWhMWhMWhMWhMWhMWhMWhFees$$MWhMWhMWhMWh$

Oct-1759,60040,000- 017,9326,98171,836$ 190,882

bwayker: gheller:Updated 18merchrev FINAL file. $ 2,064,59028.74(277)32,907- 032,630$ 456,824

Nov-1770,20040,000- 019,5756,00181,410$ 190,882$ 2,380,51729.24(6,902)24,796- 017,894$ 250,516

Dec-1783,90040,000- 018,5088,28394,087$ 190,882$ 2,798,88329.75(5,321)24,415- 019,094$ 267,318

Jan-1870,7000- 026,2987,29188,646$ 190,882$ 2,925,30633.002,76012,765- 015,525$ 217,345

Feb-187,0000- 024,8226,74332,780$ 190,882$ 1,081,74833.0014,20016,707- 030,907$ 432,700

Mar-1800- 017,7935,56719,856$ 190,882$ 655,24833.0048,80720,541- 069,348$ 970,874

Apr-1800- 015,2145,79217,855$ 190,882$ 589,21833.0078,64013,925- 092,565$ 1,295,909

May-180

Schuster, Thea: Schuster, Thea:Updated through May '18 with actuals from Kathy Bricker (BOR)0- 013,7368,84819,196$ 190,882$ 633,48133.0086,23416,804- 0103,038$ 1,442,526

Jun-1800- 026,6259,38630,609$ 190,882$ 1,010,10933.0057,83729,669- 087,507$ 1,225,094

Jul-18000- 018,21512,14025,802$ 190,882$ 851,45833.0026,02810,582- 036,611$ 512,547

Aug-18000- 019,49214,87829,215$ 190,882$ 964,07933.0020,4029,898- 030,300$ 424,198

Sep-18000- 014,02412,88422,872$ 190,882$ 754,76933.0021,14713,829- 034,976$ 489,666net

TOTAL0

Schuster, Thea: Schuster, Thea:From LAPGEN18-20mos18Jul

Used the Surplus/Deficit row. Only deficits are entered here, but as positive numbers.291,400120,000- 0232,234

bwayker: bwayker:Final FY15 - due to the CRSP consolidation back in 2012, the current way we are projecting is no longer working since we now have CRSP loads and generation in the BA. We will start using current year MW's for EI to project. May need to look at each year separately. May not always take current year MW's if there are issues that occur in the current year, may actually use the previous year. Added a % for diversity of energy not purchased due to overdelivery of EI and Losses. This % gets applied to the PP MW's and $'s.

For Prelim Projections for FY15, FY16 & FY17, used a two year average of the MW's on the PP Summary Tab. Somehow MW's calculated on this tab are not coming close to what the actual MW's are that Settlements is billing for in EI/GI.

Normal Calculation is: "PP SummaryT39*(PP Summary V20*PP Summary B15)104,794

bwayker: bwayker:Final FY15 - due to the CRSP consolidation back in 2012, the current way we are projecting is no longer working since we now have CRSP loads and generation in the BA. We will start using current year MW's for losses for projection purposes. May need to look at each year separately. May not always take current year MW's if there are issues that occur in the current year. May need to use previous year.


Normal Calculation is: "PP Summary U39*(PP Summary V20*PP Summary B15)

bwayker: gheller:Updated 18merchrev FINAL file. 534,164$ 2,290,584$ 16,709,40531.28343,557226,837

bwayker: bwayker:For FY15 Final, went back to original calculation of using 2 year average.

For Prelim Projections for FY15, FY16 & FY17, used a two year average of the MW's on the FY13 and FY14 Method of Payment File for EI/GI Sales MW's. Somehow MW's calculated on this tab are not coming close to what the actual MW's are that Settlements is billing for.

Normal Calculation is: =EY Summary E??

Schuster, Thea: Schuster, Thea:Updated through May '18 with actuals from Kathy Bricker (BOR)

Schuster, Thea: Schuster, Thea:This column will always contain projections.

Schuster, Thea: Schuster, Thea:From LAPGEN18-20mos18Jul

Used the Surplus/Deficit row. Only deficits are entered here, but as positive numbers.

Schuster, Thea: Schuster, Thea:This column will match column B. (This changes to actuals from Kathy Bricker on the Prelim and Final PRS versions.)

Kathy's deficit amounts are entered here as positive amounts. Kathy's surplus amounts aren't added.

For months we don't have actuals because that time hasn't happened yet, we use projections as placeholders rather than 0s.

bwayker: bwayker:LAP timing is based on the fact that LAP knows they will be 66 gigs of energy short to meet CROD allocations. However, with EI and Loss overdeliveries, we may not have any LAP timing. We will assume that EI and Loss overdeliveres cover our LAP timing issues.




Normal Calculation is: "PP SummaryT39*(PP Summary V20*PP Summary B15)- 0570,394$ 7,985,516$ 8,723,889

FA est %05,9222,67213,621$ 426,0908,7615,784014,545$ 203,631

$ 195,425$ 88,184$ 58,410$ 80,981$ - 0

PS est %0226,312102,122520,543$ 16,283,316334,796221,0530555,849$ 7,781,886

$ 7,468,297$ 3,370,018$ 2,232,174$ 3,094,737$ - 0

CROD2,134,909

14%0%11%5%25%16%11%27%

Projected Purchase PriceProjected Sales Price

Year-Avg$33.00Note: Amounts are shown as revenues in PRS projectionsYear-Avg$ 14.00

Real-Time Avg (losses)$33.00

Note: Amount shown as expense in PRS projections.

326996

FY17FY18diff

PurchasesFY26.6728.421.75This is fairly reasonable, but since May is usually lower price than rest of summer, I'm going to drop the 2018 price to $33 and leave FY19-20 at $28 - $1.30 higher than last yr avg.

May-Sept32.4833.501.02if we add that $1 to last year's avg

Oct-April23.8324.800.97this year is $1 higher than last year

diff

SalesFY13.9614.380.42to build some cushion for the remainder of the year, I'm going to use $14. Using $14 for FY19-20 puts us at ~ same price as last year.

May-Sept15.5415.00-0.54if we subtract that $.50 from last year's avg

Oct-April14.5613.94-0.62this year is ~$.50 lower than last year

&Z&F\&A6/28/18


FY 2019 PROJECTIONS

(As of Dec 2018)

PURCHASESSALES

Original Deficit Projections (Oct 2018) from BOR's 201810_GenerationProjection

Original Deficit Projections (Nov 2018-Sep 2019) from BOR's 201811_GenerationProjection (Corrected Loads & Deficits)



0%



OriginalActualESTIMATEESTIMATE




Oct-1836,90056,600

Schuster, Thea: Schuster, Thea:Oct and Nov '18 actual deficits from PO&M59data2019, net tab.

The PO&M59 file was revised after this original "actual" value was used to create the FY18 PRS projections.32,400- 022,09315,21979,825$ 202,809


Nov-1892,400104,50050,000- 020,25414,636118,482$ 202,809$ 3,346,98328.25(6,902)24,796- 017,894$ 232,622

Dec-1879,60079,60030,000- 022,62115,543100,099$ 202,809$ 2,863,45128.61(5,321)24,415- 019,094$ 248,224

Jan-1942,75042,7500- 022,78611,47065,455$ 202,809$ 1,865,47928.502,76012,765- 015,525$ 201,820

Feb-1914,30014,3000- 020,3779,36737,438$ 202,809$ 1,066,97228.5014,20016,707- 030,907$ 401,793

Mar-1922,75022,7500- 023,55310,15147,986$ 202,809$ 1,367,59628.5048,80720,541- 069,348$ 901,526

Apr-1900- 018,77310,04024,491$ 202,809$ 697,99628.5078,64013,925- 092,565$ 1,203,344

May-1900- 032,64411,12737,205$ 202,809$ 1,060,34728.5086,23416,804- 0103,038$ 1,339,489

Jun-1900- 031,91212,17337,472$ 202,809$ 1,067,95728.5057,83729,669- 087,507$ 1,137,587

Jul-1900- 032,60915,97341,295$ 202,809$ 1,176,89528.5026,02810,582- 036,611$ 475,937

Aug-1900- 028,98414,52636,984$ 202,809$ 1,054,03328.5020,4029,898- 030,300$ 393,898

Sep-1915,30015,3000- 028,9849,26545,516$ 202,809$ 1,297,21628.5021,14713,829- 034,976$ 454,689net

TOTAL304,000335,800112,400- 0305,589




bwayker: bwayker:Final FY15 - due to the CRSP consolidation back in 2012, the current way we are projecting is no longer working since we now have CRSP loads and generation in the BA. We will start using current year MW's for losses for projection purposes. May need to look at each year separately. May not always take current year MW's if there are issues that occur in the current year. May need to use previous year.


Normal Calculation is: "PP Summary U39*(PP Summary V20*PP Summary B15)

bwayker: gheller:Updated 19merchrev FINAL file. 672,248$ 2,433,708$ 19,117,00028.44343,557226,837

bwayker: bwayker:For FY15 Final, went back to original calculation of using 2 year average.

For Prelim Projections for FY15, FY16 & FY17, used a two year average of the MW's on the FY13 and FY14 Method of Payment File for EI/GI Sales MW's. Somehow MW's calculated on this tab are not coming close to what the actual MW's are that Settlements is billing for.

Normal Calculation is: =EY Summary E??

bwayker: bwayker:LAP timing is based on the fact that LAP knows they will be 66 gigs of energy short to meet CROD allocations. However, with EI and Loss overdeliveries, we may not have any LAP timing. We will assume that EI and Loss overdeliveres cover our LAP timing issues.




Normal Calculation is: "PP SummaryT39*(PP Summary V20*PP Summary B15)- 0570,394$ 7,415,122$ 11,701,877

FA est %07,7933,81217,142$ 487,4838,7615,784014,545$ 189,086

$ 222,087$ 108,643$ 62,060$ 75,196$ - 0

PS est %0297,797145,679655,106$ 18,629,516334,796221,0530555,849$ 7,226,037

$ 8,487,210$ 4,151,849$ 2,371,648$ 2,873,685$ - 0

CROD2,134,909

16%0%14%7%31%16%11%27%

Projected Purchase PriceProjected Sales Price

Year-Avg$28.50Note: Amounts are shown as revenues in PRS projectionsYear-Avg$ 13.00

Real-Time Avg (losses)$28.50

Note: Amount shown as expense in PRS projections.

&Z&F\&A6/28/18


FY 2020 PROJECTIONS

(As of Dec 2018)

PURCHASESSALES

Original Deficit Projections (Oct 2019) from BOR's 201811_GenerationProjection (Corrected Loads & Deficits)

Original Deficit Projections (Nov 2019-Sep 2020) as of June 2018 from BOR's LAPGEN18-20mos18Jul



0%



OriginalActualESTIMATEESTIMATE




Oct-1962,50062,5000- 022,09315,21984,840$ 202,809


Nov-1985,20085,2000- 020,25414,636102,077$ 202,809$ 2,909,19128.50(6,902)24,796- 017,894$ 232,622

Dec-1968,90068,9000- 022,62115,54391,004$ 202,809$ 2,593,61828.50(5,321)24,415- 019,094$ 248,224

Jan-2032,50032,5000- 022,78611,47056,743$ 202,809$ 1,617,17328.502,76012,765- 015,525$ 201,820

Feb-207,0007,0000- 020,3779,36731,233$ 202,809$ 890,12928.5014,20016,707- 030,907$ 401,793

Mar-20000- 023,55310,15128,648$ 202,809$ 816,47828.5048,80720,541- 069,348$ 901,526

Apr-209,5009,5000- 018,77310,04032,566$ 202,809$ 928,13428.5078,64013,925- 092,565$ 1,203,344

May-20000- 032,64411,12737,205$ 202,809$ 1,060,34728.5086,23416,804- 0103,038$ 1,339,489

Jun-20000- 031,91212,17337,472$ 202,809$ 1,067,95728.5057,83729,669- 087,507$ 1,137,587

Jul-20000- 032,60915,97341,295$ 202,809$ 1,176,89528.5026,02810,582- 036,611$ 475,937

Aug-20000- 028,98414,52636,984$ 202,809$ 1,054,03328.5020,4029,898- 030,300$ 393,898

Sep-2019,60019,6000- 028,9849,26549,171$ 202,809$ 1,401,38328.5021,14713,829- 034,976$ 454,689net

TOTAL285,200285,2000- 0305,589




bwayker: bwayker:Final FY15 - due to the CRSP consolidation back in 2012, the current way we are projecting is no longer working since we now have CRSP loads and generation in the BA. We will start using current year MW's for losses for projection purposes. May need to look at each year separately. May not always take curre

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