West Lancashire Forum 13th May 2015

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State and direction of travel of the West Lancashire economy

• PwC and Demos: “Good Growth for Cities” measures 10 key elements of economic wellbeing

• High scores across all of these indices say PwC is vital for judging medium to long term economic success

• Interesting challenge to try and apply the same process to West Lancashire

• Scoring is part scientific and part subjective• Too harsh or too generous?

10 key elements of economic wellbeingSecure jobs

Adequate income levelsGood health (to be able to work and earn a living)

Time with family / work life balanceAffordable housing

Sectoral balance of the economyAffordable and good quality transport

Providing for the future (work potential)Protecting the environment

Fair distribution of income and wealth

Secure jobs

• Strong employment growth over last 10 years exceeding national trends but high concentration in lower value sectors which tend to have lower occupational skill requirements

• Skelmersdale supporting 43% of all jobs and driver of local growth

• Unemployment rate 5.7% (UK 6.2%)• Public sector is the largest employment sector and most

likely subject to structural change• Around half of agriculture jobs are part time or

seasonal• Overall, employment expected to grow at double

average rate for Lancashire

SCORE 8

Adequate income levels

• Average earnings below the national average: £440 / week (UK £520 / week) based on workplace; £506 / week based on residence

• Resident earnings exceed workplace earnings - high income residents live here but commute out for work

• Low wage economy in many sectors• Agriculture employees 4 x UK average where around

half workers are part time / seasonal• 9% of households “fuel poor” (UK average 10.4%)• Overall, West Lancashire has low levels of deprivation

and is a relatively affluent District but wage disparity

SCORE 6

Good health (defined as being able to work and earn a living)

• Significant health inequalities across the District: life expectancy is 8.5 years

lower for men and 6.5 years lower for women in the most deprived areas than in the least deprived

• 20% of population residing in the most deprived wards in the UK – link with poor health

• Main causes of death for people of all ages were cancer and CVD• Higher rates of alcohol-specific stays and hospital stays for alcohol-related

harm than England average• People diagnosed with diabetes is significantly worse than England average• Overall the health of West Lancashire residents is mixed compared with the

England average

SCORE 6

SCORE 7

Time with family / worklife balance

• Scored from an employer’s point of view and not an employee

• Majority of businesses in West Lancashire are micro (under 10 employees)

• Despite working-time norms 66% of micro business owners work more than 48 hours a week; 44% work between 49 and 60 hours; and 22% work over 60 hours

• No data for employees in public sector or medium / large businesses

SCORE 5

Affordable housing

• House prices are rising by an average 15% - one of the largest growths in Lancashire (but wide disparity: £122,000 in Skelmersdale - £228,000 in Ormskirk)

• More than 30% higher than Lancashire average• Home ownership higher than the national average• Increase in social ownership (as rest of UK) but

predominantly in Skelmersdale• House price to earnings ratio indicates affordability of

houses for working people • West Lancashire is 6.96 (UK average 6.73, Lancashire

average 4.58)

SCORE 4

Sectoral balance of the economy (eg the size of the manufacturing sector)

• Diverse local economy with manufacturing accounting for 15% of employment (UK average 9%)

• Transport, storage, finance, and insurance above UK average

• Public sector accounts for around 26% of jobs• Higher concentration across lower value sectors

compared to UK average (agriculture 4 x UK average)• Economy worth £1,707m based on GVA• GVA per job (£34.7m) second highest in Lancashire• GVA expected to increase in those sectors which

contribute most to overall employment growth• Strong balanced economy but overly reliant on public

sector for high skilled jobs

SCORE 8

Affordable and good quality transport systems (road and rail in particular)

• Excellent regional road connections (M58 – M6) but:• Ormskirk bypass removed from transport masterplan• LCC master planning exercise – Skelmersdale

transport network not fit for purpose (one of the largest towns in the UK not connected to national rail network)

• Impact of HGVs (rural economy) blight many rural roads and villages

• Burscough needs better rail connectivity • Rural areas typically poorly served by public transport

whilst distances to services are often too far to walk or cycle

SCORE 4

Providing for the future through the potential to be in employment and earn a living

• Unemployment rate 5.7 (UK 6.2%)• 17000 residents economically inactive - 25.1% (UK

22.7%) but that includes:• 19% retired (UK 14.5%); 35.1% students (UK 26.7%);

and 21.9% long term sick (UK 21.5%)• 6000 (35.1%) residents who are economically

inactive want a job (UK 25%)• 25% of WAP (16 – 64) are qualified to NVQ Level 4

(34% UK); 12% WAP have no qualifications (10% UK)• But overall, employment expected to grow at double

average rate for Lancashire so prospects good

SCORE 9

Protecting the environment

• West Lancashire has some of the highest amount of designated Green Belt land in England.

• Three quarters of people travel to work by car (above the national rate of 63%) reflecting the rural nature of the District

• But the third highest CO2 emissions per person in Lancashire (8.5 tonnes), above the national average of 7.6

• The District has one of the highest rates in Lancashire for household waste sent for recycling

SCORE 5

Fair distribution of income and wealth

• One in five residents over the age of 60 live below the poverty line

• Low wage economy in many sectors• Disparity between resident and workplace

earnings• Pockets of high deprivation and benefit

dependency• Rural isolation and access to employment• Indices of Deprivation places West Lancashire

roughly midpoint out of 326 Districts and Unitary Authorities and improving

SCORE 6

And so to conclude

To sum up:

• Secure jobs 8• Adequate income 6• Good health 6• Worklife balance 5• Affordable housing 4• Sectoral balance 8• Transport 4• Providing for the future 9• Environment 5• Fair distribution of income 6

TOTAL 61 / 100

Too harsh? Or too generous?

And so to conclude

• West Lancashire is an exception in many ways. If 5 is average then the District scores above in terms of jobs creation, overall wealth, industry breakdown, and prospects for the future

• But success has its own costs: the issues living in a predominantly rural area, lack of affordable housing, health, transport and low wages are sufficiently prevalent to offset many of the benefits

• Economic “wellness” is not just about jobs and prosperity

Thank You