West Coast Breakout. Status of west coast project ORCA –Field intensives & data synthesis...
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Transcript of West Coast Breakout. Status of west coast project ORCA –Field intensives & data synthesis...
West Coast Breakout
Status of west coast project• ORCA
– Field intensives & data synthesis completed in wildfires, thinning, woody encroachment studies
– Remote sensing disturbance maps (30 yr change detection) of NCA to be assessed
– 3 EC tower sites, 5 precision CO2 sites– Ran Biome-BGC 30 yr over OR, and will run model over NCA– Top-down model testing (STILT, CFLUX model with disturbance
and moisture effects on respiration and GPP)
• S CA– Focus on natural C budgets, recent years– Remote sensing mapping of logging on public lands, agric SCA– 6 EC tower sites established in S-CA 2006 (9 total in CA)– ran CASA over CA– Modeling interannual variability in emissions transport (fire, fossil)
What are the critical knowledge gaps?
• Ecosystem impacts of climate change (decline, insect outbreaks). Plan for this aspect in future process modeling, analysis. – Crown mortality via remote sensing
• Standing dead…after wildfire, insect outbreaks can persist for decades, but prognostic models assume killed trees start to decompose immediately. – Need data on fall rates– Could quantify necromass spatially
(lidar/optical fusion), locally
What synthesis and integration activities can help address knowledge gaps?
• Treatment of uncertainty in measurements and models– CASA: Monte-Carlo simulation with defined
pdf– Use model intercomparison to address
uncertainty of estimates (patterns of model-model residuals) – where do they agree, disagree and why?
Formal intercomparisons of forward modeling methods
– Compare SCA CASA with ORCA Biome-BGC approach
– Compare SCA CASA with C. Potter’s continental CASA
Comparison of forward and inverse modeling methods
• Included in ORCA concept • Compare ORCA top-down to CASA results
What are the next steps to move forward?
Data-model comparisons, remote sensing error assessment in CA:
• Compare CASA model results with ORCA field thinning study in NCA (NPP and NEP)
• ORCA determined fire emissions and carbon transformations from inventory data (before and after). Goulden group will explore doing the same for CA fires to compare with CASA emissions estimates
• Compare age/disturbance maps from ORCA (all lands) with UC (logging on public lands, agric. crops) in overlap area
• Bill Riley, Marc Fischer provide fossil emissions mapping• CarbonTracker for background CO2
Important Issues - Top-Down• Top-down component requires
continued precision CO2 measurements – incoming air from Pacific, into Great Basin
• Need additional technician for calibrations
• Link with offshore sampling (need similar CO2 system onboard)
• Possibility of adding similar W-E transect of sites in SCA (Schimel)
• Need intercalibration activity similar to AmeriFlux (roving system, shipped cal stds)