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WE’RE NOT IN KANSAS ANY MORE:scientists, policymaking, and the future

Forum on Science Ethics & Policy (FOSEP)

William H. HookeApril 25, 2006

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A roadmap for this talk

1. A Policy Primer

2. A “Cliffs- Notes” guide to the future

3. “Making a difference” in Oz

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1. What is policy?

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policy:

a definite course or method of action selected from among alternatives and in light of given conditions to guide and determine present and future decisions

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some familiar examples: • honor your father and mother

• “…the American continents…are henceforth not to be considered as subjects for future colonization by any European powers…”

• dress on Fridays shall be business casual

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Another example: the steering behavior of “boids”

• separation: avoid crowding...

• alignment: match speed and direction...

• cohesion: move toward the average position…

• ...of local flockmates

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another example: “Congress shall have the power to…promote the progress of science

and the useful arts”• NSF mission (1950): To promote the progress of science;

to advance the national health, prosperity, and welfare; and to secure the national defense… …support through grants and contracts… award graduate fellowships… foster the interchange of scientific information… evaluate status and needs of the various sciences and

engineering...

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Scientists in Kansas…the Vannevar Bush policy*

• Curiosity driven• Scientists set priorities• Basic applied

* Science The Endless Frontier: A Report to the President by Vannevar Bush, Director of the Office of Scientific Research and Development, July 1945

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To be effective… policy must reflect reality:

Gravity – It’s not just a good idea, it’s the LAW!

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But reality is changing rapidly…

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Rapid societal change…

…is outpacing our ability to formulate policy

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2. A “Cliffs Notes” Guide to the Future

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The human race is on a roll

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in a short period of time...

• Population growth

• increase in per capita consumption of resources

• advance in technology

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computation

105 years

103 years

103 years

50 years

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biotechnology

50 years

1400 years

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transportation105 years

104 years

100 years

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a parenthesis…OK --

So science and technology as a whole are moving

forward...What about advances in

the earth sciences?

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Throughout history,mankind has operated on three principles...

• assimilative capacity of the atmosphere is infinite

• climate is unchanging

• weather is unpredictable

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In the span of a century…

…meteorologists have shown...1871-1916 1984-2003

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Assimilative capacity of the atmosphere is finite...

• Not just locally…

• or regionally…

• but also globally.

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The climate changes…sometimes abruptly

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…and weather is more predictable than we’d thought…

                                                                                                            

                                                                             

                                                                                                            

                                                                             

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in a short period of time?

Short

compared

with what?

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short compared with what?

• climate variability

• recurrence of extremes

• emergence of unintended consequences

• evidence of non-sustainability

• time required for society to internalize emerging understanding

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The detailed implications of these trends are uncertain…

…but we can draw broad inferences with a high degree of confidence

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We can expect a future marked by...

• (adverse) climate variability• natural extremes that will find us

unprepared• pervasive environmental/social

catastrophes• declining margins• ineffective top-down coping

strategies

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Policy makers will be scrambling

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3. Making a difference in OZ

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International Council for Science (ICSU)

• Planning Group on Natural and Human-Induced Hazards and Disasters

• “…research is needed on how to translate research findings about natural hazards and human behavior into policies that are effective in minimizing the human and economic costs of hazards…”

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These ICSU concerns cut across all fields of science and technology…

• “…three crucial challenges to building scientific capacity…”

• “The first challenge … is the widening gap between advancing scientific knowledge and technology and society’s ability to capture and use them.”

(from ICSU/CSPR Priority Area Assessment

on Capacity Building in Science 2006)

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ICSU Committee on Scientific Planning and Review

• “closing knowledge gaps will require developing national strategies for science and technology development that are linked with effective policies.”

• “There is a need to build national innovation systems.”

(from ICSU/CSPR Priority Area Assessment

on Capacity Building in Science 2006)

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The Chinese are moving out…

• At China’s 2006 National Science and Technology Conference, president Hu Jintao pledged to make China an “innovation-oriented society.”

• The Chinese Academy of Sciences is reinventing itself through a “Knowledge Inovation Program.”

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…the U.S. must follow suit.

• American Competitiveness Initiative

• Rising above the Gathering Storm

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We must work across a broad front

• Technology transfer

• Decision support systems development

• Rapid prototyping

• Policy framework

• …

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Policy issues are both specific…

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deregulate electricity?

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manage watersheds?

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urbanize?urbanize?build critical infrastructure?build critical infrastructure?

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…and general

• Reconcile supply and demand for science

• Harness S&T rather than vice versa

• Order does matter

• Ethics

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In summary, scientists have much to “offer” OZ …

• Brain

• Courage

• Heart

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The fall of ancient Athens

• Major earthquakes Sparta 464 B.C. Lamia 426 B.C.

• plague 430 B.C. (killed 1/3 to 2/3 population) returned three times helped lead to Athens’ defeat 404 B.C.

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But consider this assessment...• “In the end, more than they wanted

freedom, they wanted security. They wanted a comfortable life and they lost it all -- security, comfort, and freedom. When the Athenians finally wanted not to give to society, but for society to give to them, when the freedom they wished most was freedom from responsibility, then Athens ceased to be free.”

-- Edith Hamilton

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• For the past half-century, U.S. scientists have been allowed to work under a rather extraordinary social contract, premised on the notion that "curiosity driven" basic science would open up a cornucopia of social good. Arguably, such an approach has indeed brought many benefits to the humankind since World War II. However, the gap seems to be widening between the advance of science and technology, and society's ability to harness them. As the urgency and complexity of the challenges before us continue to grow, scientists can and should become more engaged in efforts to accelerate the payoff from our work.