Finding New Opportunities in in Media Convergence

Finding New Opportunities in in Media Convergence

Chris Deering

XML Wellington NZ – May, 2008

The Biggest Trends of the DecadeThe Biggest Trends of the Decade

• Communities escape geographic shackles

• Remote data storage skyrockets

• Global virtual currencies

• Broadband becomes mega-band and blankets the world

• Education, medicine and government become collaborative and

connected with the mass market

• Classrooms become conference rooms

• Work and shopping travel become more scarce

Broadband Speed by Country – mbpsas of April 2008 - national average 30Broadband Speed by Country – mbpsas of April 2008 - national average 30

- S Korea 48

- Finland 28

- Sweden 18

- Netherlands 8

- Portugal 8

- Norway 7

- Austria 7

- Belgium 6

- Germany 6

- Denmark 5

- Italy 3

- UK 2

- Spain 1

The differences are huge

Understanding ScaleUnderstanding Scale

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

iP o d P la yS ta tio n P S 2 P S P G lo b a l IP T V S u b sc rib e rs

Number of

MySpace

Members

Lifetime

Global PS2

Sales Units

Daily “YouTube”

videos watched

Size of annual PC

market units

Size of Global Mobile Handset

Market in Annual Units

1.3 Billion

100+ 100+ 100+ 100

100 millions

Entertainment spending – USA example

Annual Spending per Household

- Basic cable/satellite subscriptions $ 475

- Video/DVD purchases $ 250

- Cinema tickets $ 80

- Video rental $ 70

- Pay per view/VOD $ 65

- Pay cable/satellite channels $ 60

$1, 000

Understanding ScaleUnderstanding Scale

Understanding Scale… Where is the Money?Understanding Scale… Where is the Money?

% of world

EXPORTS IMPORTS (total: $14 trillion)

Germany 9.5 7.5

China 8.8 6.7

USA 8.4 14.2

Japan 5.1

France 4.0

Holland 4.0

Italy 3.5

UK 3.1

S Korea 2.9

Russia 2.6

Think “experiences”Think “experiences”

What experiences come to mind?

• WAP

• iPod

• iPhone

• Blackberry

• Google

• Amazon

• Facebook

Opportunities in New ExperiencesOpportunities in New Experiences

Revolution in user

interfaces and input

including voice

Mobile phone

communities go

massive + global

““New Experiences” ” Impact Information, , Employment and

Entertainment

Monetisation of streaming

unleashes ” the long tail of live “

““Concierge” ” services

abound as “ “Time” ” becomes precious

commodity

Females become the biggest paying audience on the

web

Ubiquitous screens and

HiDef redefine “TV”

GPS on mobiles and “ “location

aware” ” servers

The Expanding Reach of Mobile Networks create massive mobile social networksThe Expanding Reach of Mobile Networks create massive mobile social networks• Mobile phones become “all in one” devices

• Handheld social networks grew from 30mm to 55mm (’06-’07)

• 2012 estimates range from 400mm to 800mm

• Primarily 18-35

• 60/40 male/female .. Initially

• “kindred spirits”

GPS in Phones, dog collars, car keysGPS in Phones, dog collars, car keys

• It costs $5 to add GPS to a mobile handset

• In 2007 10mm phones had a GPS module

• In 2008 110mm phones will have GPS

• In 2012 you guess..

IMAGINE THE NEW EXPERIENCES!IMAGINE THE NEW EXPERIENCES!

Advertising on Mobile Devices.. It’s just the beginningAdvertising on Mobile Devices.. It’s just the beginning

• So far, largely untapped, and tricky, regulated (consumer must enable) and small screen

• But, “as all in one” devices proliferate, mobile advertising will become a new industry

• Global ads on handsets was $870mm in ’07

• In ’08, this will grow to $1.4 billion

• There is over $400 billion more in global ad spending that can migrate to this medium

Video is everywhere.. In Hi Def. Live, and on every screen. Any time. All the time.Video is everywhere.. In Hi Def. Live, and on every screen. Any time. All the time.• The term “TV” ceases to be used

• You can watch anything you want. Its all there.

• User generated, live events, and everything ever recorded

• Advertisers know what you are watching and where you are when you watch

• You won’t have the time to check guides

• You will need advice

• From a source you trust..

• Before you think of asking for it

HOW WILL THIS HAPPEN? CAN YOU HELP?HOW WILL THIS HAPPEN? CAN YOU HELP?

TV over Internet will replace most viewingTV over Internet will replace most viewing

Projected US Online Content Spending

Video/TV on demand Games

2006 $ 0.29 billion $ 0.65 billion

2007 0.75 1.04

2008 1.48 1.15

2009 2.57 2.09

2010 4.29 2.50

Open Access Linux Devices will ruleOpen Access Linux Devices will rule

Global Installed base of Linux devices

2008 2009 2010 2011

millions 131 227 337 523

% by area:

Americas 8% 10% 11% 12%

Greater Eur. 16 17 17 18

China/India 52 48 46 45

ME/Africa 3 5 6 7

Asia/Pac 21 20 19 18

Mobile Television Subscribers/Users will grow in both Digital and Analog modesMobile Television Subscribers/Users will grow in both Digital and Analog modes

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 mm

Analog 20 110 170 210 260

Digital 75 90 130 180 220

TOTAL 95 200 300 390 480

Finding OpportunitiesFinding Opportunities

Spot the trend

Help the trend to move faster by your idea

Help the experience feel more enjoyable.

Decide the trend that YOU will set..

Then add energy!

Start your own new media business..!Start your own new media business..!

• You can FAIL without trying… But you cannot SUCCEED without trying.

• Develop a mission to disrupt and improve the status quo. Make a real, detailed plan and get started. The plan will change, but there must be a plan.

• Live for your mission. Evangelise your mission.

• Know that there will be failure and be grateful for failure. It breeds new solutions and new ideas.

• And ultimately, SUCCESS.

Don’t assume you are too lateDon’t assume you are too late

There IS such a things as

“ first mover disadvantage!”!”

Questions ?Questions ?