WELCOME TO WFO ALBANY’S FIRST FIRE WELCOME TO WFO ALBANY’S FIRST FIRE WEATHER CONFERENCEWEATHER CONFERENCE

HUGH JOHNSONHUGH JOHNSON

FIRE WEATHER PROGRAMFIRE WEATHER PROGRAM LEADER

MARCH 15 2006MARCH 15 2006

FIRE WEATHER SEASONFIRE WEATHER SEASON

• THIS YEAR BEGIN MARCH 20THTHIS YEAR BEGIN MARCH 20TH

• NORMALLY ENDS NOVEMBER 15NORMALLY ENDS NOVEMBER 15

• CAN BE ADJUSTED EARLIER/LATER CAN BE ADJUSTED EARLIER/LATER BASED ON UNUSUAL WEATHER BASED ON UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERNSPATTERNS

WHAT WILL WE DISCUSS TODAY?

• ROUTINE FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS

• SPECIAL PRODUCTS ISSUED

• HOW TO ACCESS OUR PRODUCTS

• * YOUR FEEDBACK ON THE CONFERENCE/FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS

ROUTINE WEATHER PRODUCTS INCLUDE

• FIRE PLANNING FORECAST PRODUCT (FWF)

• NATIONAL FIRE RATING DANGER SYSTEM (NFRDS) FOR MARLBORO, VT

• FIRE WEATHER GRIDS

HOW TO LOOK AT FIRE WEATHER GRIDS AND

OTHER PRODUCTS• GO TO http://www.weather.gov/aly

• CLICK ON EXPERIMENTAL FORECAST IMAGES IN LOWER RIGHT HAND CORNER

• CLICK ON FIRE WEATHER ON THE TOP

• PICK CATEGORY

SPECIAL PRODUCTS ISSUEDSPECIAL PRODUCTS ISSUED

• FIRE WEATHER WATCH (FWW)FIRE WEATHER WATCH (FWW)

• RED FLAG WARNING (RFW)RED FLAG WARNING (RFW)

• INTERNET SPOT REQUEST INTERNET SPOT REQUEST PROGAM PROGAM

FWF WEATHER FWF WEATHER PARAMETERS INCLUDEPARAMETERS INCLUDE

• TEMPERATURE AND WEATHERTEMPERATURE AND WEATHER• RELATIVE HUMIDTY (DEWPOINT)RELATIVE HUMIDTY (DEWPOINT)• WIND WIND • MIXING HEIGHT MIXING HEIGHT • TRANSPORT WINDS TRANSPORT WINDS • VENT RATEVENT RATE• LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL (LAL)LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL (LAL)• HAINES INDEXHAINES INDEX• DAVIS STABILITY INDEX (DSI)DAVIS STABILITY INDEX (DSI)

EXAMPLE OF OUR FIRE EXAMPLE OF OUR FIRE PLANNING FORECAST (FWF)PLANNING FORECAST (FWF)

LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME OF THE OTHER SOME OF THE OTHER PARAMETERS OF THE PARAMETERS OF THE FWFFWF

FIRST WE LOOK AT THE MIXING HEIGHT

• LIFT THE PARCEL DRY ADIABATICALLY

• WHEN IT INTERSECTS THE ACTUAL SOUNDING OF THE DAY IS THE MIXING HEIGHT

• CAN CHANGE QUITE A BIT DURING THE DAY

WHAT ARE THE TRANSPORT WINDS?

• THE AVERAGE WIND SPEED FROM THE GROUND TO THE MIXING HEIGHT

• AGAIN, THIS COULD VARY QUITE A BIT THROUGH THE DAY

• BOTH THESE PARAMETERS ARE AVERAGED OVER A 12-HOUR PERIOD

VENTILATION RATE ON VENTILATION RATE ON FWFFWF

• MERELY THE PRODUCT OF MERELY THE PRODUCT OF TRANSPORT WIND AND MIXING TRANSPORT WIND AND MIXING HEIGHT (YES YOU CAN DO THE HEIGHT (YES YOU CAN DO THE MATH!)MATH!)

• THE BEST WAY TO CALCULATE THE BEST WAY TO CALCULATE DISPERSIONDISPERSION

11 NONENONE

22 ISOLATED/ WIDELY ISOLATED/ WIDELY SCT/SLGHT CHC (15-24 SCT/SLGHT CHC (15-24 POP)POP)

3 SCATTERED/CHANCE (25-3 SCATTERED/CHANCE (25-54 POP) 54 POP)

4 NUMEROUS/LIKELY (55-74 4 NUMEROUS/LIKELY (55-74 POP) POP)

55 CATEGORICAL/WDSRPD CATEGORICAL/WDSRPD (>74 POP)(>74 POP)

66 LIGHTNING OF ANY KIND LIGHTNING OF ANY KIND WITHOUT ANY RAIN! WITHOUT ANY RAIN!

LIGHTNING ACTVITY (LAL)

WHAT EXACTLY IS THE WHAT EXACTLY IS THE HAINES INDEX ON THE HAINES INDEX ON THE

FWF?FWF?

• DEVELOPED BY DONALD HAINES DEVELOPED BY DONALD HAINES WITH THE USDA FOREST SERVICE IN WITH THE USDA FOREST SERVICE IN 1988.1988.

• AN INDEX THAT GIVES AN AN INDEX THAT GIVES AN INDICATION FOR A FIRE “BLOW-UP” INDICATION FOR A FIRE “BLOW-UP” LEADING TO EXTREME FIRE LEADING TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. BEHAVIOR.

HOW IS THE HAINES INDEX HOW IS THE HAINES INDEX CALCULATEDCALCULATED

• STABILITY (T950-T850) + A MOISTURE STABILITY (T950-T850) + A MOISTURE TERM (Td925-Td850)TERM (Td925-Td850)

• STABILITY TERMSTABILITY TERM– 1 = 3 DEG C OR LESS1 = 3 DEG C OR LESS– 2 = 4-7 DEG C 2 = 4-7 DEG C – 3= 8 DEG C OR MORE3= 8 DEG C OR MORE

• MOISTURE TERMMOISTURE TERM– 1= 5 DEG C OR LESS1= 5 DEG C OR LESS– 2= 6-9 DEG C2= 6-9 DEG C– 3= 10 DEG C OR MORE 3= 10 DEG C OR MORE

FINAL HAINES RESULT FINAL HAINES RESULT

• SIMPLY ADD TWO TERMSSIMPLY ADD TWO TERMS

• RANGES FROM 2-6RANGES FROM 2-6

• 2-3 VERY LOW (STABLE)2-3 VERY LOW (STABLE)

• 4 LOW (NEUTRAL)4 LOW (NEUTRAL)

• 5 MODERATE (UNSTABLE)5 MODERATE (UNSTABLE)

• 6 HIGH (VERY UNSTABLE) 6 HIGH (VERY UNSTABLE)

WHY HAINES?WHY HAINES?

• HIGH HAINES INDEX STRONGLY HIGH HAINES INDEX STRONGLY CORRELAES WITH A DANGEROUS CORRELAES WITH A DANGEROUS PLUME DOMINATED FIRE!PLUME DOMINATED FIRE!

DAVIS STABILITY INDEX DAVIS STABILITY INDEX (DSI)(DSI)

• IS SIMPLY THE LAPSE RATE BETWEEN THE IS SIMPLY THE LAPSE RATE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 850MB LEVELSURFACE AND 850MB LEVEL

• ADVANTAGESADVANTAGES– MAKES USE OF THE LEVEL WE LIVEMAKES USE OF THE LEVEL WE LIVE

– VERY EASY TO CALCULATEVERY EASY TO CALCULATE

• DISADVANTAGESDISADVANTAGES– STILL DOES NOT FACTOR IN ANY LOW LEVEL STILL DOES NOT FACTOR IN ANY LOW LEVEL

INVERSIONSINVERSIONS

– NOT AS WELL DOCUMENTED AS HAINESNOT AS WELL DOCUMENTED AS HAINES

THRESHOLD OF D.S.I.THRESHOLD OF D.S.I.

• (TMX-T850) LESS THAN 10C = STBL(TMX-T850) LESS THAN 10C = STBL

• (TMX-T850) 10-14C = COND UNSTBL(TMX-T850) 10-14C = COND UNSTBL

• (TMAX-T850) 15-17C= UNSTBL (TMAX-T850) 15-17C= UNSTBL

• (TMAX-T850) > 17C=VRY UNSTBL(TMAX-T850) > 17C=VRY UNSTBL

HOW DO CAN YOU ACCESS THE FWF???

• GO TO http://www.weather.gov/

• CLICK ON FIRE WEATHER LINK ON THE RIGHT SIDE IN THE BLUE AREA

• ONCE THERE, CLICK WHERE ON FIRE WEATHER FORECAST

• IF NOT CURRENT PLEASE CALL US AT 1-800-239-2123!

WHAT IS NFDRSWHAT IS NFDRS

• NATIONAL FIRE DANGER NATIONAL FIRE DANGER RATING SYSTEMRATING SYSTEM

THE NFDRS IS A NUMERIC THE NFDRS IS A NUMERIC SCALING OF THE SCALING OF THE POTENTIAL OVER A LARGE POTENTIAL OVER A LARGE AREA FOR FIRE TO IGNITE, AREA FOR FIRE TO IGNITE, SPREAD AND REQUIRE FIRE SPREAD AND REQUIRE FIRE SUPPRESSION ACTION. SUPPRESSION ACTION. UTILITZED BY MOST STATE UTILITZED BY MOST STATE AND FEDERAL AGENCIES. AND FEDERAL AGENCIES.

MORE ON NFDRSMORE ON NFDRS

• ROUTINE SPOT FORECAST FOR ROUTINE SPOT FORECAST FOR MARLBORO, VT (42 50 16 LAT 72 44 06 MARLBORO, VT (42 50 16 LAT 72 44 06 LON)LON)

• 1686 FEET ABOVE SEA-LEVEL 1686 FEET ABOVE SEA-LEVEL

• ISSUED ONLY DURING THE ISSUED ONLY DURING THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AFTERNOON PACKAGE

RED FLAG WARNING/FIRE RED FLAG WARNING/FIRE WEATHER WATCHWEATHER WATCH

• CRITERIA DURING NON-LEAF SYSTEMCRITERIA DURING NON-LEAF SYSTEM• FIVE DAYS OF NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL (0.25 FIVE DAYS OF NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL (0.25

INCHES)INCHES)• FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 30 FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 30

PERCENTPERCENT• WIND GUSTS 25 MPH OR HIGHERWIND GUSTS 25 MPH OR HIGHER• CONDITIONS FOR THREE HOURS OR MORE CONDITIONS FOR THREE HOURS OR MORE • EVENT WITHIN 12 HOURS ISSUE A WARNING EVENT WITHIN 12 HOURS ISSUE A WARNING • 12-48 HOURS ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH12-48 HOURS ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH• ISSUED THROUGH GFE ISSUED THROUGH GFE

CRITERIA FOR RFW DURING CRITERIA FOR RFW DURING LEAF-OUTLEAF-OUT

• EIGHT STRAIGHT DAYS OF NO EIGHT STRAIGHT DAYS OF NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL (.25 INCHES)SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL (.25 INCHES)

• WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY SAME AS BEFORESAME AS BEFORE

• KETCHUM DROUGHT INDEX > 300KETCHUM DROUGHT INDEX > 300

• http://www.fs.fed.us/land/wfas/kbdi.gifhttp://www.fs.fed.us/land/wfas/kbdi.gif

ELEVATED FIRE ELEVATED FIRE AWARENESSAWARENESS

• CLOSE TO BUT NOT MEETING RED CLOSE TO BUT NOT MEETING RED FLAG WARNING/WATCH CRITERIAFLAG WARNING/WATCH CRITERIA

• TWO OUT OF THREE FACTORS METTWO OUT OF THREE FACTORS MET• COULD INCLUDE HIGH HAINES COULD INCLUDE HIGH HAINES

INDEX (6)INDEX (6)• ADDRESS THROUGH THE ADDRESS THROUGH THE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO)(HWO)

IF WE ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH, RED FLAG WARNING OR AN

ELEVATED FIRE AWARENESS IT WILL

AUTOMATICALLY SHOW UP ON OUR THE MAP OF OUR

HOME PAGE!

SPOT FORECAST REQUESTSPOT FORECAST REQUEST

• ISSUE ONLY WHEN GOVERNMENT ISSUE ONLY WHEN GOVERNMENT AGENCY REQUESTS (DEPT OF FORESTRY)AGENCY REQUESTS (DEPT OF FORESTRY)

• GO TO OUR INTERNET SITE AND PULL GO TO OUR INTERNET SITE AND PULL RIGHT UPRIGHT UP

• CLICK UNDER FIRE AND RIGHT THERE AT CLICK UNDER FIRE AND RIGHT THERE AT THE TOP OF THE PAGETHE TOP OF THE PAGE

• KEETCHUM DROUGHT UPDATE AND LOTS KEETCHUM DROUGHT UPDATE AND LOTS OF FIRE WEATHER INFO THEREOF FIRE WEATHER INFO THERE

• A SPECIAL THANKS TO INGRID FOR HER A SPECIAL THANKS TO INGRID FOR HER HARD WORK!HARD WORK!

OPEN FORUMOPEN FORUM• FIRE WEATHER AFD

• FORMAT (KNOTS/MPH)

• UPDATE FWF CRITERIA

• DSI EVEN USEFUL?

• OPERATIONAL INPUT– 800-239-2123

• OTHER ISSUES

PLEASE SEND ALL PLEASE SEND ALL COMMENTS TO MECOMMENTS TO ME

Hugh.W. Johnson@noaa.govHugh.W. Johnson@noaa.gov

518-435-9581518-435-9581

800-239-2123800-239-2123

WRAP-UPWRAP-UP

• GAVE OUT FORMGAVE OUT FORM

• ON THE INTERNETON THE INTERNET

• REPORT CARD ON HOW WE ARE REPORT CARD ON HOW WE ARE DOINGDOING

• PLEASE LEAVE ME YOUR PHONE PLEASE LEAVE ME YOUR PHONE NUMBER AND EMAIL ADDRESSNUMBER AND EMAIL ADDRESS

• THANKS FOR ATTENDINGTHANKS FOR ATTENDING

HOW ABOUT HOW ABOUT DOING IT AGAIN IN DOING IT AGAIN IN THE FALL?THE FALL?

TO SEE HOW WE TO SEE HOW WE DID!DID!

POSSIBLE FALL DATE