Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E...
Transcript of Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E...
![Page 1: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Welcome to The Markets Now January 18th 2016
David Fuller fullertreacymoney.com
Caledonian Club – 9 Halkin Street
London SW1X 7DR, UK
![Page 2: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Global Stock Markets
Seven year itch, plus concerns led by China and crude oil?
Cyclical to secular bear markets are lowering valuations
Short-term oversold conditions but top-heavy charts
Rallies to break patterns of lower highs needed to confirm
demand is regaining upper hand
US bear markets which are not caused by an inverted yield
yield curve tend to have little economic impact
![Page 3: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
![Page 4: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
S&P 500 (SPX Index)
P/E 16.80, Yield 2.34%
Are we here?
![Page 5: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
S&P 500 over 10 years
Lower high, broadening pattern
![Page 6: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Dow Jones Transport Average
Led the decline, now in a bear market
P/E 11.64, Yield 1.65%
![Page 7: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Russell 2000 (RTY Index)
Signalling deteriorating breadth
P/E 16.94, Yield 1.81%
![Page 8: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Lower high, broadening pattern
P/E 14.10, Yield 2.79
![Page 9: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Nasdaq Composite (CCMP Index)
Led on the upside, now a lower high
in broadening pattern
P/E 27.39, Yield 1.40%
![Page 10: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Iconic Apple’s loss of form
Est P/E 10.12, Yield 2.14%
![Page 11: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Nasdaq Biotech Index (NBI)
Previous sector leader correcting overvaluation
P/E 594.28, Yield 0.36%
![Page 12: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
![Page 13: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
China Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP)
P/E 15.32, Yield 2.12%
![Page 14: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Hong Kong China Enterprises (H-Shares) (HSCEI Index)
P/E 6.10, Yield 4.79%
![Page 15: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
India Mumbai (Sensex Index)
P/E 18.52, Yield 1.51%
![Page 16: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Indonesia (JCI Index)
P/E 25.53, Yield 2.16%
![Page 17: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Singapore (FSSTI Index)
P/E 12.16, Yield 4.55%
![Page 18: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Philippines (PCOMP Index
P/E 18.48, Yield 2.13%
![Page 19: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Malaysia (KLCI Index)
P/E 17.32, Yield 3.16%
![Page 20: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Taiwan (TWSE Index
P/E 12.11, Yield 4.35%
![Page 21: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Japan Nikkei 225
P/E 18.05, Yield 1.86%
![Page 22: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Australia S&P/ASX 200 Index
China’s GDP slowdown and weak
resources prices are eroding support
P/E 17.64, Yield 5.33%
![Page 23: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Europe
With the European Union’s darkening clouds increasingly
hanging overhead
Can the migrant crisis fracture the European Union?
Are we for or against Grexit?
![Page 24: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
![Page 25: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
UK FTSE 100 (UKX)
P/E 25.97, Yield 4.56%
![Page 26: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
![Page 27: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
DJ Euro STOXX 50 (SX5E Index)
P/E 19.39, Yield 3.96%
![Page 28: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Germany (DAX Index)
P/E 20.22, Yield 3.11%
![Page 29: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Denmark (KFX Index
Still an outstanding performer
but potentially top heavy
P/E 25.42, Yield 2.93%
![Page 30: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
The Markets Now
“Buy on the cannons, sell on the trumpets” Attributed to Nathan Mayer Rothschild (1777-1836) in 1810
“Buy when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is
your own” Attributed to Baron Rothschild, cited in Passport to Profits, by Mark Mobius
“Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when
others are fearful” Warren Buffett
This slide was appropriate at 28th September, 2015’s Markets
Now and again tonight, although we may wish to be a little more
cautious this time because of top heavy charts and no evidence
just yet that demand is returning
![Page 31: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Where do you
think the markets
of most interest to
you are in this cycle?
![Page 32: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Primarily Resources Producers
Hit mainly by slump in resources prices due to overproduction,
plus slower global growth and some substitution
Middle East/North Africa wars are a serious crisis
Should eventually benefit from lower costs of production due to
technology, plus supply cutbacks and higher demand over
the next several years
![Page 33: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Canada SPTSX Index
P/E 18.60, Yield 3.58%
![Page 34: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Brazil Ibovespa Index
P/E 20.47, Yield 5.06%
![Page 35: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Russia (RTSI$ Index)
P/E 7.07 & Yield 5.19%
Perpetual governance problems
but would benefit from a partial
recovery in oil prices
![Page 36: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index
P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60%
Governance problems intensifying along with
regional wars and Saudis unable to achieve
more than a Pyrrhic victory from increased
oil production strategy
![Page 37: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Yield Curve & US 10-Yr Treasuries
![Page 38: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
US Yield Curve
10Yr-2Yr
Fed created bear market danger zone below zero
Bear markets which are not
created by a Fed squeeze
are rare and usually have
little economic impact
![Page 39: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
A potential Type 3 base
(ranging time and size) as
taught at The Chart Seminar, but still a
long way from breaking primary downtrend
US 10Yr Treasury Bond Yield
![Page 40: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Merrill Lynch Treasury Total Return Index,
a lagging indicator but still firm and
indicating deflation
A partial recovery in
commodity prices would
weaken this index
![Page 41: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
US Dollar Index
A bull market is underway
![Page 42: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Dollar Index (DXY)
monthly 20 years
Probably in a medium-term
consolidation before
resuming uptrend
![Page 43: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Dollar Index (DXY
weekly 10 years
US Treasury intervention on
behalf of the Federal Reserve
has most likely occurred
to delay the next advance
![Page 44: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Asian Dollar Index (ADXY)
ADXY appears to have entered
a climactic stage in which the
further it falls, the more sharply
It subsequently rebounds
![Page 45: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Commodities
Most industrial resources, including precious metals,
are in the region of their bear market lows but the
strong Dollar is a headwind
The timing of recoveries depends largely on supply
cutbacks and to a lesser extent, increasing demand
For agricultural commodities, the key variable is
always crop yields
![Page 46: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Trending lower and becoming
overextended following break
Of 2009 lows – heading towards
2002-2003 trough?
![Page 47: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index (BCOMIN)
![Page 48: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
Climactic slump now underway
but supply cuts will follow, leading
to a sharp rebound of $50 or more
Brent Crude Oil
![Page 49: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
Copper (CMX)
This bear market is now
entering a climactic stage
![Page 50: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
London Spot Gold (GOLDS)
Primary trend still downwards
![Page 51: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
Gold needs sustained break
of lower rally highs, starting with
$1200, to indicate that demand
is regaining upper hand
![Page 52: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
Silver is high-beta gold and
will lead on the upside as
precious metals eventually
recover
Rangy downtrend is slowing
but still intact
![Page 53: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
Bloomberg Agricultural Index
Testing prior lows since 2001
so how much lower can it go?
![Page 54: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
Many thanks for your interest! Any questions?
Please visit our site:
www.fullertreacymoney.com
![Page 55: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
![Page 56: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
![Page 57: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
![Page 58: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
SHASHR (p/e 15/36 & yield 2.00%)
No longer at bubble valuations but investor
confidence may take time to recover
Climactic low on 26/08 still
holding but only just
![Page 59: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
HSI (p/e 9,03 & yield 4.04%)
Deeply oversold, excellent medium
to longer-term recovery prospects
Climactic low on 25/08 only
slightly exceeded to date
![Page 60: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
SENSEX (p/e 20.23 & yield 1.45%)
Still in a corrective phase but excellent
medium to longer-term prospects
25/8 low
![Page 61: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
Climactic low on
25/08 still holding
but only just
AS51 (p/e18.42 & yield 5.20 for locals)
Longer-term potential based on China’s
recovery and stronger commodity prices
![Page 62: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
Climactic low on
25/08 still holding
NZSE (p/e 18.52 & yield 5.18% for locals)
Comparative relative strength but
uptrend clearly broken
![Page 63: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
Some loss of
momentum
near 26/8
climactic lows
but barely steady
NKY (p/e 18.68 & yield 1.66)
![Page 64: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
TSE2 (15.35 & yield 1.50%)
This 2nd Section Index usually leads
Holding above
25/8 climactic low
![Page 65: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
European Union
1) Variously roiled by Putin, Sanctions, Grexit, Brexit,
slow GDP growth, high unemployment, political
dissatisfaction, rule by unelected EU commissioners,
a divisive and out of control migrant crisis, and now
the diesel emissions scandal
2) Share valuations are competitive and QE continues
![Page 66: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
Temporarily overextended,
weekly key reversal
indicates beginning
of a corrective phase
Ten-year chart of SX5E
Note: this slide is
from the April 17th
presentation
![Page 67: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
SX5E (p/e 17.12 & yield 3.82)
24/8 climactic low
![Page 68: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
SX7E (p/e 19.28 & yield 4.01%)
Serial underperformer since mid-2007
![Page 69: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
DAX (p/e 15.06 3.11%)
valuations improved but
hit by China’s soft economy
and EU turmoil
Just above 24/8
climactic low
![Page 70: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
UKX (p/e 21.79 & yield 4.34%)
p/e has edged higher mainly
due to weak resources shares
Still above 24/8
climactic low
There will inevitably be some
uncertainty over next year’s UK
referendum on the EU
![Page 71: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
![Page 72: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/72.jpg)
A few graphs of global
economic performance
which may be of interest
![Page 73: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/73.jpg)
![Page 74: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/74.jpg)
ECB Increasing Stimulus
![Page 75: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/75.jpg)
![Page 76: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/76.jpg)
Green Shoots Reappearing?
![Page 77: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/77.jpg)
![Page 78: Welcome to The Markets Now - Fuller Treacy Money€¦ · Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index P/E 12.60, Yield 4.60% Governance problems intensifying along with regional wars and](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f071d6c7e708231d41b612e/html5/thumbnails/78.jpg)
Technical warning signs to watch for among indices
• Trend acceleration relative to 200-day moving averages
• Declining market breadth (fewer shares rising)
• Failed upside breakouts from trading ranges
• Loss of uptrend consistency characteristics
• Churning price action relative to recent trading ranges
• Breaks of 200-day moving averages
• Broadening patterns relative the last several trading ranges
• 200-day moving averages turn downwards
• Resistance is encountered beneath declining 200-day MAs
• Previous rising lows are replaced by lower rally highs
• Indices fall faster than they rose to their highs