Welcome to the 2012 NYSFAAA Conference!

EASFAA President’s Address

Cathleen Patella,Wells College

College (Un)bound

The Future of Higher Education

My frame of reference

Class of 2031 | Class of 2033

• How We Got Here

• The Decade Ahead: 5 Disruptive Forces

• The Value Gap

• Disrupting College

• Discussion: What It Means For You

4

Road Map

1999-2009

A Decade of More

Source: U.S. Education Department

More Students,More Degrees

Number of students up by 1/3 since late 1990s

More Credentials

2 in 5 titles on government list of academic programs didn’t appear on it in 1990

21% increase in titles since 2000

Source: The College Board

More Tuition

More Debt

$307,000,000,000

Amount of debt taken on by colleges, which has almost doubled just since 2001

Students were willing to go to any college and

pay almost anything for a degree

The collapse of the decade of more.

1999-2009: A Lost Decade for higher education?

2008

• How We Got Here

• The Decade Ahead: 5 Disruptive Forces

• The Value Gap

• Disrupting College

• Discussion: What It Means For You

The Decade Ahead: 5 Disruptive Forces

Sea of Red Ink

Completion Demographics

Improved Alternatives

More diversity Less prepared The swirl

Low completion rates More skilled jobs Flat attainment

Next generation learner

Flipped classroom The great unbundling

Institutional debt State role in higher

ed Family ability to pay

Value What am I learning? Will I get a job? Make enough to pay

debt?

Completion | Public Colleges

Demographics | Student Swirl

Demographics

Sea of Red InkEducational appropriations per FTE (fiscal 1985-2010)

Source: The Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity in Higher Education

Sea of Red InkBased on the trends since 1980,

average state fiscal support higher education will reach zero across the

U.S. in 2059

Colorado will reach zero first in 2022

Improved Alternatives

• How We Got Here

• The Decade Ahead: 5 Disruptive Forces

• The Value Gap

• Disrupting College

• Discussion: What It Means For You

21

no home equity

squeezed states

federal deficits

more out of pocket

Source: Pew Research Center/The Chronicle

What am I paying for?Rate the job the higher-education

system is doing in providing value for the money spent?

57% of public says fair/poor 76% of college presidents say

excellent/good

Source: Pew Research Center/The Chronicle

1 in 3Number of presidents who said there is

no one single effective measure to judge the quality of a college degree

How and what will I learn?

36%

Reading and writing

Field of study matters

Source: Georgetown U. Center for Education & Workforce

Will I get a job?

Will I make enough money to pay off my debt?

Hollins UniversityRandolph College

Sweet Briar CollegeFerrum College

Virginia Intermont CollegeEmory and Henry College

Bridgewater CollegeRandolph-Macon College

Christendom CollegeUniversity of Virginia's College at Wise

Hampden-Sydney CollegeChristopher Newport University

Lynchburg CollegeVirginia State University

Longwood UniversityVirginia Wesleyan College

Liberty UniversityUniversity of Mary Washington

College of William and MaryRadford University

Mary Baldwin CollegeJames Madison University

Norfolk State UniversityHampton University

Roanoke CollegeVirginia Union University

State average for all Bachelor's degreesVirginia Commonwealth University

University of VirginiaEastern Mennonite University

Virginia TechShenandoah University

Old Dominion UniversityVirginia Military Institute

Marymount UniversityRegent University

University of RichmondAverett University

George Mason UniversityBluefield College

Washington and Lee UniversityAverett University Non-Traditional

Jefferson College of Health Sciences

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000

$26,300$27,000

$28,300$28,500$28,900$29,100$29,800$30,200$30,400

$31,300$32,000$32,100$32,700$33,100$33,200

$34,400$34,400$34,800$34,900$34,900$35,300$35,900$36,500$37,200$37,300$37,300

$38,500$38,600$39,000

$40,000$40,000$40,300$40,400$40,800

$41,600$43,600

$44,500$45,500$46,000

$47,900$53,500$53,900

$70,700

Average First Year Wages of Bachelor Degree Graduates, By Institution

First-year Wages of Graduates from the Three Largest Bachelor’s Programs of Study, by Institution (2008-2009)

• How We Got Here

• The Decade Ahead: 5 Disruptive Forces

• The Value Gap

• Disrupting College

• Discussion: What It Means For You

30

Keys to Disrupting Legacy Industries

Hubris

Skepticism of anything new

Unwilling to hear opposing viewpoints

“The only really necessary people in the publishing process now are the writer and the

reader. Everyone who stands between those two

has both risk and opportunity”

-Larry KirshbaumHead of Amazon’s NY Publishing Unit

Key Question:

What are the less tangible aspects that define your college experience

that can’t be easily be replaced by fragmented, simplified services

on the Internet?

The Coming Disruption

Most at Risk

Commodity courses

The network

The credential

Least at Risk

Maturing students

Research

The student/professor relationship

• How We Got Here

• The Decade Ahead: 5 Disruptive Forces

• The Value Gap

• Disrupting College

• Discussion: What It Means For You

38

Web: jeffselingo.com

E-mail:jeff@jeffselingo.com

Twitter: @jselingo

Blog:chronicle.com/blogs/next

COMING IN SPRING 2013

College (Un)Bound: The Future of Higher Education and What It Means for Students