Welcome to Heat-Spurs 2

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6/4/2014 Welcome to Heat-Spurs 2.0

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NBA

Welcome to Heat-Spurs 2.0

After six frenzied weeks, weve got the dream Finals for everyone outside a few selectfan bases fans of other contenders, plus Lakers fans, who must now watch as

Miami or San Antonio strengthens its claim to the honor of best post-Jordan

franchise.

BY ZACH LOWE ON JUNE 3, 2014

After six frenzied weeks, weve got the dream Finals for everyone outside a few select fan bases fans

of other contenders, plus Lakers fans, who must now watch as Miami or San Antonio strengthens its

claim to the honor of best post-Jordan franchise.

Miami has now made four straight Finals, something no team has done since the 1980s, and a win herewould give them a three-peat and four total post-Jordan rings. The Spurs already have four post-

Jordan titles, and theyve won 50 games every season since drafting Tim Duncan.1

1.They technically won 37 games in the 1999 lockout season, but their 37-13 record equates to a 61-win pace for a

normal season.

The Lakers have won five rings since Jordan retired from the Bulls, including a three-peat, and theyve

been among the leagues elite for most of that span. But theyve slogged through two sub-.500 seasons,
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Michael Beasley combination.

Dwyane Wade, a borderline liability last time around, is healthy and productive again, and Lewiss

frisky play has given a thin roster new versatility. The Spurs outscored Miami by 54 points last season

with Wade on the court, per NBA.com; Miami won the series only because it blitzed San Antonio by 49

points in the 86 minutes Wade sat, and that trend continued even as Miami recovered to win Games 6

and 7 at home. Those numbers reversed almost exactly when Miller was on the floor, and he was a

valuable wild card for the Heat. They miss him.

Wade cant shoot from long range, and he was always hanging around the baseline, mucking up

Miamis spacing:

It took Miami so much work to generate LeBrons gorgeous floater in overtime of last seasons

legendary Game 6 because Leonard ignored Wade in the right corner to help clog up LeBrons firstattack:

That isnt as damaging when Miami plays small ball, since Wade effectively functions as a second big

man. But it makes Miami a bit easier to guard. The Heat are a different team if Wade is healthy enough

to counter by working his floater game, cutting off the ball, and generally being a terror in all those in-

between spaces.

Still: Miami on the whole is probably a bit worse than it was last year, the Spurs a bit better.

San Antonio has been a stronger and more complete team all season, including in the playoffs, by

almost any measure, and it faced a tougher road than Miami in reaching this point. The gap is largeston defense, which is kind of important, since Miami so far in the playoffs has scored at a rate above

what any offense in league history has put up over a full season, per Basketball-Reference.

And yet: Miami has LeBron.

What in the hell is a thinking person supposed to do with all of these crisscrossing trends? Lets suss it

out by focusing on some key things to watch:
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On Small Ball

The Heat dared to go even smaller against San Antonio in last years Finals, swapping Miller and even

Ray Allen into the Battier slot and leaving LeBron and Bosh as the only two big men on the floor.

Such lineups played a much larger share of Miamis minutes in last years Finals than normal, and they

are basically unguardable.

Diaw is San Antonios chubby futon, capable of shifting functions depending on the need. If the Spurs

want to play big against Miamis small-ball groups, pairing Diaw and Duncan, Diaw can punish a

smaller player in the post and find some workable place to slide around on defense. He guarded LeBron

some in last years Finals, and though he can do that credibly, LeBron began to figure it out in Games 6

and 7.

If the Spurs dont want Diaw on LeBron, he can manage on Lewis or Battier just fine. Try this San

Antonio lineup on for size: Parker, Ginobili, Leonard, Diaw, and Duncan. That lineup logged just four

minutes in last years Finals and 33 minutes over the full playoffs, but Gregg Popovich has already

rolled that bad boy out for 81 minutes in these playoffs.

It might be a little light on shooting, depending on Leonards stroke, but its a diverse group without a

one-dimensional shooter on which Miami can hide a weak defender like Allen.

Miami didnt respect Diaws post-up girth enough to not go super-small, with lineups like Chalmers,

Allen, Wade, LeBron, and Bosh. If Diaw proves unable to defend LeBron over the long haul, wheres he

hiding on defense against lineups like these? The Spurs tried both Diaw and Splitter on Wade last

season in these scenarios, a humiliation for Wade, but Wade was hobbled and creaky then. The Pacers

and other teams prefer facing Allen on defense, but ask David West how hard it is for a big fella to chase

that ageless dude.

Using Diaw together with Duncan also makes it trickier for the Heat to have LeBron defend Parker, a

matchup Miami reserved for crunch time before leaning on it more in Games 6 and 7; if Bosh and

LeBron are the only bigs on the floor, and LeBron is on Parker, the Heat have to hope a smaller guy can

contain Diaws scoopy post game.

But the Spurs defense has taken a step back with the Diaw-Duncan pairing in both the regular season

and especially in the playoffs; those groups have allowed 109.3 points per 100 possessions through

three series, per NBA.com, a mark that would have ranked dead last in the regular season. (Theyve

also scored 113.1 points per 100 possessions, which would have ranked right around ridiculously

insane.)

The Spurs, of course, can go super-small themselves, and theyre better positioned to do that given the

strong play of Leonard, Belinelli, and Mills. But it was telling how rarely they went that route against

the Thunder, even with Oklahoma City playing Kevin Durant at power forward a ton. The Spurs

offense, that beautiful machine, is designed to feature two bigs two guys to man the elbows, set picks

on each side of the floor, deliver handoffs, and do other big-guy stuff.

San Antonio can slide a wing player into a big role, but those guys arent as familiar with the job; the

Spurs lose a bit of their structure and defense going that route. And in an all-small-ball setup, the smart


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money is on Miami. Always.

The Spurs Shell and the LeBron Project

The Spurs in last years Finals took the idea of allowing midrange jumpers to a new level. They played

multiple body lengths off Wade and James, going way under screens on the pick-and-roll and daring

them to shoot wide-open midrangers:

All that mattered was protecting the rim. The Spurs were even willing to switch big men onto James to

maintain the integrity of their force field around the paint.

They understand LeBron can breeze by any 7-footer, but theyd rather LeBron suck a few more seconds

off the shot clock while he thinks about it, and as LeBron revs the engine, help defenders can slide into

his path near the rim. The Spurs will make him see bodies:
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It worked, to a degree. The Spurs held the most potent offense in the world to a manageable scoring

number, and they forced Miami to heave more long 2-pointers; about 39 percent of Miamis regular-

season shots were midrange jumpers and paint shots outside the restricted area, but that share jumped

to 47 percent in the Finals, per NBA.com. Miami also got to the line at the lowest rate, per field goaltry, of any series it has played since LeBron signed there by a huge margin.

Bosh got heaps of open midrangers off pick-and-pops and other screening actions. He may turn more

of these shots into triples this season, and he has shown he can hurt both Duncan and Splitter by

pump-faking and blowing by them off the bounce.

This isnt some cant-miss strategy. LeBron and Bosh are elite midrange shooters, and the Heat won

last years Finals, but it can stagnate a Miami offense that thrives by bending the defense with high

pick-and-rolls and whipping the ball around the floor until the juiciest shot emerges. Its harder to

puncture a defense that doesnt bend at all.

Miami will respond by posting the hell out of LeBron, who has become perhaps the very best post-up

player in the league. (This is the part where Cleveland fans weep.) If you cant dribble the ball close to

the rim, you can still pass it there to a monster sealing his man near the edge of the paint.

About 19 percent of possessions LeBron finished2came via post-ups in last seasons Finals, up from 12

percent in the regular season, per Synergy Sports. Problem: LeBron shot 30 percent on those plays and

barely drew any fouls. The Heat averaged an almost unbelievable .556 points per possession on LeBron

post-ups against San Antonio, per Synergy, a number that would have ranked 116th among 117 players

with at least 50 post plays to their name. Take a bow, Vitor Faverani.

2.With a shot, drawn foul, or turnover.

Leonard cant match LeBrons bulk, but hes strong, with giant arms that bother LeBron on the way up.

And if LeBron faces up for a dribble attack, Leonard has the speed and footwork to contain him.

Hell also get plenty of help. The Spurs will tilt their entire defense toward LeBron, pinching the floor

and forcing him into tougher pass-or-shoot choices:
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The Spurs were also good at surprising LeBron with late help on post-ups guys flying in from the top

side, or from the baseline, only as LeBron started his move and temporarily lost sight of them.

Wades lack of shooting was especially hurtful in enabling the Spurs shell defense. Green and other

defenders flat abandoned Wade to clog the paint on any Miami drive (this one from Bosh):
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This is a different series if Wade can make San Antonio pay, and LeBron figures to do better as a post-

up bully this time around especially since the Heat will have at least three long-range shooters

around him at almost all times.

LeBron doesnt leave a lot of room for cute matchup games, either. The Spurs slid Green onto Durant

in the conference finals so Leonard could defend Russell Westbrook, and Durant isnt a cruel enough

post player yet to punish a shorter guy like Green.

LeBron is a bruiser, and he brutalized Green last season when he found himself in that matchup.

The Heat have other ways to penetrate the shell, including a pick-and-roll variation they broke out

specifically for last seasons Finals:

Thats a standard LeBron-Bosh job, only Bosh sets the pick low near the foul line3and slips hard to the

rim playing against his tendency to pop out. The nearest wing defender would normally crash down

on Bosh here, but that defender is guarding Allen, and leaving that dude is freaking scary. Miami got a

lot of profitable stuff out of this action, and out of similar side pick-and-rolls in which Bosh rolled clear

to the hoop behind the shell:

3.This helped Wade gain a head of steam and start pick-and-rolls within his shooting range.
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Its a Trap!

The Heat dont get as funky as they used to, but theyre still a pretty aggressive team, and theyll have

two defenders attack pick-and-roll ball handlers both up high and on the side. That leaves the other

three Miami defenders guarding four opposing players, and any series against the Heat largely comes

down to which team wins those 4-on-3 battles.

Miami is more berserk with its traps on the side of the floor, which happens to be where Parker loves to

come flying off picks at the elbow:

That trap on the Splitter screen triggers the Heats defensive machinery a third defender has to rush

over to Splitter, and the defenders on the other side of the floor have to position themselves so that

Splitter doesnt have an easy pass to an open player. Hesitation by Splitter is death, since it gives Miami

time to recover from its initial trapping binge.

The Spurs are the best passing team in the league. They are built for this. Their role players,

particularly Diaw and Leonard, unleashed a new level of aggression with the ball when Oklahoma Citys

defense forced the Spurs to swing it around. They have been hesitant in the past, especially against theThunders crazy jumping length, but in Games 5 and 6, they both caught the ball, put their heads down,

and took the damn thing toward the rim.4

4.Game 5 especially was a collective masterpiece from San Antonio.

Those role players werent quite ready for this last season in the half-court, but they might be now. The

Heat want to scramble your offense until the shot clock is expiring and someone has to make a one-on-

one play off the bounce. The Spurs scored well, but they did so outside their comfort zone; only 51.4

percent of their buckets in the Finals came via assists, a mammoth drop from their regular-season 64

percent assist rate, and a number that would have ranked last overall.

Miami isnt quite as nutty on high pick-and-rolls, preferring to have the big man guarding the screener

slide side-to-side with the ball handler instead of blitzing him. It still functions as something like a

trap, and the Spurs will have to dribble and pass their way out of it. They will revive the technique they

used in their Spursgasm against Oklahoma City, positioning a second player along the perimeter so the

ball handler has an easier pass than trying to thread the ball to the big rolling into the lane.

That was Ginobilis job on this eerily similar Green triple from last seasons Finals:
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Parker also had a ton of success waiting out the trap and then attacking Miamis point guards one-on-

one in glorified isolations:

Parkers health could swing the series. He is probably San Antonios best one-on-one player, and

isolations can be weirdly effective as trap neutralizers against Miami. He is by far the Spurs best

transition threat, and getting early points, before the Heat prime their defensive energies, will be a

point of emphasis. Peak Parker fools hyperaggressive defenders by faking at the pick and then driving

away from it, and the Spurs against Oklahoma City got some traction by having other guards screen for

Parker.5

5.They did that sometimes via staggered screens, in which two players set consecutive screens for Parker.

The Spurs have to do all of this without committing too many turnovers. San Antonio can contain

Miami well enough in the half-court to win this series, but it cannot survive an onslaught of fast-break

points.

Timmay!!!!

Duncan is too tall for Bosh and too strong for Chris Andersen, who played a key role off the bench in

last years clash. The Spurs went to Duncan on the block far more than normal; he jacked 6.1 post-up

shots per game in the Finals, up from about 3.8 in the regular season, and he nearly took the Spurs


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home with some old-school post work in Game 6.

Bosh will try to front Duncan, but the Spurs have no issue passing around the front. They arent the

Knicks or Pacers, simplistic offensive teams that approached Miami fronts as if they were an

impenetrable new strategy.

Fronting can also open up driving angles for San Antonio ball handlers:

Duncan can do damage, but the Spurs have to make sure they dont shift their offense out of rhythm in

pursuit of tough isolations down low.

The Extras

In a series this close, every possession matters, even the miscellany that doesnt fall into any of these

larger categories. Green went wild over the first five games last season, and while the Spurs deserve a

lot of the credit for springing him via a cut the Heat had never seen before, Miami also just lost him way

too often. Defenders spaced out ball-watching, and botched switches. Both Wade and LeBron

committed treasonous acts by whining to officials instead of getting back on defense.

A lot of the switching mishaps involved Miller, dusted off late in the conference finals after a long

period of inactivity, and the defense might be cleaner without him this time around.

Ginobili will guard a bunch of guys, but he has to raise his level of alertness in chasing Allen. And when

Allen has to guard Ginobili when there is no safe stash spot Ginobili must punish him.

These are two historically indifferent offensive rebounding teams, but both amped up their activity

level on the glass last season, with the Spurs grabbing their own misses at a league-average rate a

miracle for them.

Duncan has a size edge for tip-ins, and Leonard, a beast on the glass, slithered around lazy boxouts

from Wade and James. When both teams play smaller, the rebounding game becomes a little more

unpredictable; whichever team can earn some extra chances by sliding into the right spots at the right

times will build a small edge.
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But the Spurs especially will have to do that without sacrificing transition defense. If they free Leonard

to hit the glass along with their two bigs (when playing that sort of lineup), Leonard must be judicious,

and the Spurs cannot position themselves like this as a shot goes up with four players below the foul

line

Prediction

Holy crap. Ive been going back and forth on Heat in seven, Heat in six, and Spurs in seven, and I was

leaning toward the Spurs before Parker aggravated his ankle injury. The Spurs need him at close to

peak functionality for the full series to dethrone Miami. Ill choose to be optimistic here and assume

Parker gets through this thing.

The Heat have played a dangerous game, summoning their best effort only when absolutely necessary.

The Spurs are too good for that; the Heat needed an all-time comeback to snatch the title last season.These Spurs are better. Spurs in seven.
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