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Transcript of WELCOME TO HOLABANK · and gastronomy safety cost of living attractive communications investment....
WELCOME TO HOLABANKWELCOME TO HOLABANK
Thinking of you
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advisers
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for all your needs
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170 HolaBank
branches very
close to you
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Solutions Account
with free financial
services
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with non-financial
advantages
Mortgage
finance
to purchase
your new home
HolaBank Cards
with the free
CaixaBankProtect®
service
Commercial
experience with
international clients
Familiarity with the
portfolio of products for
non-residents
Mature analysis
of clients' financial position
High-value advice
PERSPECTIVAS
ECONÓMICAS
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
& REAL ESTATE SECTOR:
Where are we in the cycle?
Judit Montoriol
Senior economist
February 2020
WELCOME TO HOLABANKGLOBAL ECONOMY
A sluggish recovery is underway
Note: CaixaBank Research forecasts for 2020 and 2021.
GDP growth (%) 2019 2020 2021
Global 2.9 3.2 3.4
Developed economies 1.7 1.5 1.6
United States 2.3 1.8 1.8
Euro Zone 1.1 1.1 1.3
Germany 0.6 0.7 1.5
France 1.3 1.4 1.5
Italy 0.2 0.5 0.7
Portugal 1.9 1.7 1.6
Spain 2.4 2.0 1.6
United Kingdom 1.3 1.2 1.4
Emerging economies 3.8 4.4 4.5
China 6.1 5.9 5.7 Downside risks
Support factors
Gradual decreaseof uncertainty(brexit, trade war)
Monetary policy
Fiscal policy in some countries
WELCOME TO HOLABANKMONETARY POLICY
Fed & ECB: dovish bias
Note: CaixaBank Research forecasts for 2020 and 2021.
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Reference rates (%)
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Q12005
Q42005
Q32006
Q22007
Q12008
Q42008
Q32009
Q22010
Q12011
Q42011
Q32012
Q22013
Q12014
Q42014
Q32015
Q22016
Q12017
Q42017
Q32018
Q22019
Q12020
Q42020
Q32021
WELCOME TO HOLABANKSPANISH ECONOMY
Spain's economy: slowdown, not recession
Note: CaixaBank Research forecasts for 2020.
Spanish GDP, Year-on-year change (%)
The bands show the 90%, 80%, 70% and 60% confidence intervals .
RecessionProbability
~ 15%
WELCOME TO HOLABANKSPANISH REAL ESTATE MARKET ANALYSIS
Spain's real estate sector: a controlled slowdown
Note: CaixaBank Research forecasts for 2020.
WELCOME TO HOLABANKSPANISH REAL ESTATE MARKET ANALYSIS
Demand indicators: slowdown in part due to the new mortgage law
Note: CaixaBank Research based on Ministry of Public Works.
Number of housing sales
-5.7%
+0.6%
-4.8%
-4.1% (total sales)
Year-on-Year change(Q1 2019 – Q3 2019)
WELCOME TO HOLABANKSPANISH REAL ESTATE MARKET ANALYSIS
Supply indicators for the real estate sector
RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT
5.5% of GDP in 2019
vs. 4.1% of GDP in 2013 (min.)
vs. 11.6% of GDP in 2006 (max.)
CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT
6.5% in 2019
5.7% in 2014 (min.)
13.3% in 2007 (max.)
Source: CaixaBank Research, based on data from the Spanish Statistics Institute.
WELCOME TO HOLABANKSPANISH REAL ESTATE MARKET ANALYSIS
No signs of over-supply
New building permits
Source: Caixabank Research, based on data from the Ministry of Public Works.
Thousands of residences, cum. 12 months(Thousands of permits)
OCT-19
108,007
(+11.8%)
Net household creation in 2019:
122,000
Forecasts mean 2020-2025 (INE):
135,000
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200000
300000
400000
500000
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Houses monthly figure (left scale)
Houses cumulative over 12months (right scale)
NOV-19
105,793
(+6.6%)
WELCOME TO HOLABANKSPANISH REAL ESTATE MARKET ANALYSIS
Housing prices: recovery at different speeds
Note: CaixaBank Research based on Ministry of Public Works.
Housing pricesIndex (100 = Q1 2014)
WELCOME TO HOLABANKSPANISH REAL ESTATE MARKET ANALYSIS
Slowdown in prices will support affordability, specially in hot areas
Note: CaixaBank Research based on Ministry of Public Works.
Affordability ratio in provincial capitals(years of median household income)
Property purchases by foreigners have grown non-stop since 2009
WELCOME TO HOLABANKTHE RISE IN HOUSING SALES TO FOREIGNERS
Source: CaixaBank Research, based on data from the Spanish Statistics Institute (ECH).
4.2% 12.6% 3T 2019
63,136
12.5%
Number of housing purchases by foreigners
The rise in housing sales to foreigners
Housing demand by foreigners has increased non-stop since 2009
Which nationalities buy the most?
United
Kingdom
14.5% Germany
7.7%
France
7.1%
Belgium
5.8%
Which zones have the greatest presence?
Alicante 40.8%
Santa Cruz
de Tenerife
Málaga
House purchases by
foreigners as share of total12.5%
32.6%
28.9%
Sweden
5.0%
WELCOME TO HOLABANKSPANISH REAL ESTATE MARKET ANALYSIS
Source: CaixaBank Research, based on 3T 2019 data from the Spanish College of Registrars.
Italy
4.2%
WELCOME TO HOLABANKWHY DO FOREIGNERS CHOOSE SPAIN?
CLIMATE, CULTURE
AND GASTRONOMY
SAFETY
COST
OF LIVING
ATTRACTIVE
INVESTMENTCOMMUNICATIONS
WELCOME TO HOLABANKWHAT IS THE FAVOURITE DESTINATION OF FOREIGNERS BY NATIONALITY?
Example: 34.9% of British citizens buying property in Spain bought a home in the Community of Valencia.
Source: CaixaBank Research, based on data from the Spanish College of Registrars. Note: Data from 2018.
United
Kingdom
COMM. OF VALENCIA
34.9%
ANDALUSIA
29.3%
MURCIA
12.5%
France
CATALONIA
40.5%COMM. OF VALENCIA
27.2%
ANDALUSIA
12.9%
Germany
BALEARICS
37.0%
COMM. OF VALENCIA
19.7%
CANARY ISLANDS
19.5%
Belgium
COMM. OF VALENCIA
40.7%
ANDALUSIA
26.1%
CANARY ISLANDS
18.5%
Sweden
COMM. OF VALENCIA
48.4%
ANDALUSIA
35.4%
BALEARICS
6.8%
Italy
CANARY ISLANDS
42.9%
CATALONIA
14.8%
ANDALUSIA
9.2%
Russia
COMM. OF VALENCIA
54.7%
CATALONIA
20.0%
CANARY ISLANDS
6.3%
Norway
COMM. OF VALENCIA
64.9%
ANDALUSIA
26.3%
MURCIA
4.1%
Netherlands
COMM. OF VALENCIA
45.2%
ANDALUSIA
27.2%
CATALONIA
10.7%
Ireland
CANARY ISLANDS
32.5%
CATALONIA
18.5%
ANDALUSIA
10.5%
WELCOME TO HOLABANKPOPULARITY OF SEARCHES COR "BUY APARTMENT IN SPAIN"
ACCORDING TO GOOGLE TRENDS
Example: Sweden is the country where the Google Trends index was highest in 2019, indicating that buying an apartment in Spain is a very popular search in
Sween (horizontal axis). However, the Google Trends index is lower compared with 2018, suggesting it has become slightly less popular (vertical axis).
Note: Data from 2018 and 2019. Source: CaixaBank Research, based on data from Google Trends.
Morocco
Note: (*) Forecast.
Source: CaixaBank Research, based on data from the Spanish College of Registrars.
WELCOME TO HOLABANKWHICH NATIONALITIES BUY THE MOST HOUSING IN SPAIN?
Number of housing sales
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
United
KingdomGermany Sweden Italy Netherlands
2018 2019* 2020* 2018 2019* 2020* 2018 2019* 2020* 2018 2019* 2020* 2018 2019* 2020* 2018 2019* 2020*
France
WELCOME TO HOLABANKTHE RENTAL MARKET
More and more people
are renting their home:
supply will have to
increase in line with
this growing demand
to avoid greater
pressure on prices.
16.1% 17.8%
2013 2018
% of homes rented
WELCOME TO HOLABANKFACTORS SUPPORTING THE DEMAND IN RENTED ACCOMMODATION
CHANGE IN
PREFERENCES TOURIST DEMAND
TAXATIONMIGRATION
YOUNG PEOPLE'S
EMPLOYMENT
CONDITIONS
WELCOME TO HOLABANKSPANISH REAL ESTATE MARKET ANALYSIS
Main messages
Global Economy:Deceleration, no recession… but with downside risks
Spanish Economy:Growth converging to its potential level... but with important challenges
Real Estate:Controlled slowdown… with high geographical heterogeneity
WELCOME TO HOLABANKSPANISH REAL ESTATE MARKET ANALYSIS
Thank you!
The report can be downloaded from
CaixaBank Research
www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sector-report
WELCOME TO HOLABANKKEY ASPECTS OF THE NEW MORTGAGE ACT
TRANSPARENCY
PROTECTION
LEGAL CERTAINTY
NEW
MORTGAGE
ACT
WELCOME TO HOLABANKHOW TO BUY A HOME
Analyse your
budget and
how much
you can repay
1Look for
your
property
2Look for financing and
compare.
Comparisons are now
easier thanks to
the standardized sheets
3
The bank studies the
operation, land registry
checks, appraisal and
assessment of the
customer's solvency
4
Final approval
5Reception and signing
of the binding
offer together with the
mandatory documentation,
sent to the notary
6
First visit to the
notary A deed is drawn
up stating that the
customer understands
the documentation
7Cooling-off period of at
least 10 days from the
time the binding offer is
received. In Catalonia
this is 14 days
8
Signing
before a
notary
9Administration and
reception of the deed
Payment of the notary,
registration, taxes, etc.
The steps for taking out a mortgage
10