Welcome

Dan CostiganCommunications Manager

Shawn BakkerPsychologist

Decision Making

• It’s complex

• People decisions are very complex

Your Fast Thinking Mind

Your Slow Thinking Mind

17 x 24

Your Slow Thinking Mind

17 x 24

141?

13,509?

568?

Your Slow Thinking Mind

17 x 24 = 408

Two Systems

System 1

•Fast, operates

automatically

•Little or no effort

•No sense of voluntary

control

System 2

• Slow, effortful mental

activity

• We choose to use it

• It requires concentration

System 1

• Creates general impressions, intuitions, intentions and

feelings

• Provides accurate review of familiar situations

• Initial reactions to challenges are swift and generally

appropriate

• Cannot be turned off

• Prone to systematic errors

System 1

National

A simple example

A bat and ball cost $1.10.

The bat costs one dollar more than the ball.

How much does the ball cost?

Another example

How many animals of each kind did Moses

take into the ark?

Bernieri Experiment

You can find our example video at

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7d71eDZAYY

Your Intuitive Mind

• Our minds use many strategies to simplify complex

information

• Problems arise when we misapply or overuse

generally sensible strategies

• We can judge too quickly

• We jump to conclusions

Self-fulfilling Prophecy

• Our expectations evoke behaviours that confirm our

expectations.

• Belief creates reality.

WYSIATIWhat You See Is All There Is• Will Emma be a good nurse? She is kind and

compassionate ...

•“Given a thimbleful of facts we rush to make

generalizations as large as a tub.” Gordon Allport

Tips

• Recognize that System 1 is happy to make a decision

based on the available information

• Ask yourself – “What do I need to know to make an

effective decision?”– Seek additional information

– Be curious

– Dig Deeper

Halo Effect

• Sherri: intelligent, industrious, impulsive, critical,

stubborn, envious

•Dallas: envious, stubborn, critical, impulsive,

industrious, intelligent

Tips

• Recognize that sequence matters.

• What you see or hear first can impact your evaluation

of what follows.

Confirmation Bias

• We only look for information that verifies and

supports our beliefs.

Tips

• Rule of Science: We can best test our hypothesis by

trying to refute it.

•Make an effort to convince yourself of a contradictory

point of view

Moving Forward: Making Effective decisions

• Engaging System 2

• Effort + Discipline

• Structures and Strategies

Moving Forward:Assessments & Interviews

• Provide some structure for making decisions

• Standardized

• Unbiased

Moving Forward:

Moving Forward:Key Steps

• Select Key Characteristics Required for Success

• Weight these characteristics before you

interview/assess

• Develop a rating scale

• Don’t jump around

• Score characteristics independently

Final Tips

• Test your intuitions

• Beware assumptions

• Down play dogmatic statements

• Have a lack of faith in your abilities

• Seek feedback on the accuracy of your judgments

The danger of the persuasive story

“Testimonials are more compelling than mountains of

facts and figures; as mountains of facts and figures in

social psychology compellingly demonstrate.”

Mark Snyder

Conclusion

• Making people decisions is always going to be

challenging

• Effective decisions require effort and concentration

• System 1 is great at getting you through the day

• The more you engage System 2, the better decisions

you will make

Thank You

Thank you everyone for attending our webinar.

• Shawn Bakker sbakker@psychometrics.com

1-800-661-5158 ext 238

• Dan Costigan dcostigan@psychometrics.com

1-800-661-5158 ext 245