Svante Axelsson

The Malthus dilemma

Två staplar i två klickningar

People

Food

…but in reality

Four challenges

1.Population growth

2.Changing consumption patterns

3.Need for increased food production

4.Loss of ecosystem services

Tvågradersmålet

År

P = 20 %

P = 50 %P = 80 %

Rummukainen m fl, 2011, SMHI rapport

1,5-gradersmål

P = 80 %

P = 50 %P = 20 %

More of the same is not an option

We have increased the total production by 300 % the last 50 years

But 60 % of the worlds ecosystem services are threatened

The planet bounderies

Agriculture is one of the driving forcies

•About 30 % of the global emissions of GHG are from the agriculture sector

•About 75 % of food crop varieties disappeared in the 20th century

• 25 million farmers are poisoned every year (WHO)

•The increasing use of fertilizers has caused eutrophication

9 billion inside the boundaries

Restrictions

•The total use of fossil fuels must decrease approximately 100 % by 2050

•The most hazardous chemicals must be phased out immediately and the total use must decrease

•The total use of nitrogen must decrease

•No increased loss of biodiversity and increased diversity of heritage crops

How can we use fertilizers in an optimal way ?

Marginalkostnadskurva !

MC env

Yield

Myths

1.The hunger can be solved by increasing total production

2.Ecological farming produce lower yield

3.Low food price is good for reducing hunger

4.Food is a major commercial product

Most food insecure in rural areas

• 50 % small scale farmers

• 20 % agricultural labor

• 10 % fishermen, livestock etc.

• 20 % in urban areas

Productions effects

Sanning:

Small farmersIndustrial Agriculture

--

Sanning:

!111

- 15% waste in food chain

- 15 % post harvest losses

increase production by 50%

Bio ? - 50 % of meat consumtion

Key issues

1. Publicly financed crop breeding

2. Payment for carbon sinks

3. No harmful subsidies

4. Polluter pays principle

5. Increase support to small scale farmers

6. Feed and food should have same boarder tax

7. Extension services focus on agroecology

Tack för mig!

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