Welcome and comments on Nordic mining scene

44
Several good reasons to remain optimistic! Scandium drawing: Kaianders Sempler. Magnus Ericsson Mining on Top, Stockholm 26/27 November 2013 10th annual RMG conference

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Mining On Top: Stockholm 2013 26-27 Nov 2013 Welcome and comments on Nordic mining scene – Prof Magnus Ericsson, Co-founder Raw Materials Group, Executive Director IntierraRMG

Transcript of Welcome and comments on Nordic mining scene

Page 1: Welcome and comments on Nordic mining scene

Several good

reasons to

remain

optimistic!

Scandiu

m d

raw

ing:

Kaia

nders

Sem

ple

r.

Magnus Ericsson

Mining on Top, Stockholm 26/27 November 2013

10th annual RMG conference

Page 2: Welcome and comments on Nordic mining scene

Copper drawing: Kaianders Sempler.

Metal prices

Page 3: Welcome and comments on Nordic mining scene

Copper price I

USD/t

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Copper price II

USD/t

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Copper price III

USD/t

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0

1000

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9000 1900

1903

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1966

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1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

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1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

US

D/t

(2005)

33 years

-3.5%pa

40 years

2.3%pa 29 years

-3.5%pa 10-15 years

2-3%pa ?

Copper price IV

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Copper price V

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Metal prices

061030 Anton Löf

0

5000

10000

15000

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25000

30000

35000

40000

0

100

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RMG Price Index Iron Ore Copper Nickel

Zinc Aluminium Lead Potash

Phosphate Metallurgical coal

Index = 100 year 2000 USD/t

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Copper drawing: Kaianders Sempler.

Metal prices

remain at

high levels.

Page 10: Welcome and comments on Nordic mining scene

Chinese economic

development continues

to impress.

Import of ores will increase.

Page 11: Welcome and comments on Nordic mining scene

Manganese drawing: Kaianders Sempler.

Exploration

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Source: Raw Materials Group.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Sweden Finland Greenland Norway

M EUR

Nordic exploration

Page 13: Welcome and comments on Nordic mining scene

Mining capex

Neodymium drawing: Kaianders Sempler.

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Mining capex

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

MUSD

Page 15: Welcome and comments on Nordic mining scene

Scandium drawing: Kaianders Sempler.

Conclusions

• Prices remain on high

levels.

• Chinese demand grows -

production declines.

• Exploration much too low.

• Capex will decline in 2014

then continue to grow.

Page 16: Welcome and comments on Nordic mining scene

Source: Swedish Geological Survey SGU.

Background

Page 17: Welcome and comments on Nordic mining scene

Source: Swedish Geological Survey SGU.

Background

Page 18: Welcome and comments on Nordic mining scene

Source: Swedish Geological Survey SGU.

Background

Page 19: Welcome and comments on Nordic mining scene

Global metal mining I

Source: Raw Materials Data.

CIS 10.5 %

Europe excl CIS

2.4 % North America 8.2 %

Asia 25.0 %

Latin America excl Mexico

22.1 %

Africa

10.4 % Oceania 14.4 %

Page 20: Welcome and comments on Nordic mining scene

Global metal mining II

061030 Anton Löf

China

14.8 %

Source: Raw Materials Data.

Page 21: Welcome and comments on Nordic mining scene

Source: Raw Materials Data.

Operating mines

Page 22: Welcome and comments on Nordic mining scene

Source: Swedish Geological Survey SGU.

Background

Page 23: Welcome and comments on Nordic mining scene

Source: SGU, GTK,

Page 24: Welcome and comments on Nordic mining scene

Source: Raw Materials Data.

Ore production by mine

Page 25: Welcome and comments on Nordic mining scene

Sources: Raw Materials Data, GTK.

Nordic ore production

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Sweden

Norway

Greenland

Finland

Mt

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Source: Raw Materials Data.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

UG

OP

Mt

Ore production OP/UG

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Source: Raw Materials Group.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Sweden Finland Greenland Norway

M EUR

Nordic exploration

Page 28: Welcome and comments on Nordic mining scene

Nordic mining

Source: Raw Materials Data 2013.

Iron ore

Mt

Gold

t

Lead

kt

Zinc

kt

Copper

kt

Nickel

kt

Fin/Nor/Swe Nordic countries

29.7 14.1 66 242 103 21

Sweden 26.5 6.1 65.5 190 82.4 0

Finland 0 8.0 0 52 21 21

Nordic

% of Europe 86 70 32 30 23 30

Sweden/Finland

rank Europe 1 1 1 2 3 3

Page 29: Welcome and comments on Nordic mining scene

Nordic refining

Source: Raw Materials Data 2013.

Nickel

kt

Aluminium

kt

Zinc

kt

Copper

kt

Fin/Nor/Swe Nordic countries

incl Iceland

137 2142 468 378

Sweden 0 0 0 214

Finland 46 0 315 126

Nordic

% of Europe 60 49 23 14

Sweden/Finland

rank Europe 2 na 2 5

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Source: Raw Materials Data.

Value of Nordic mine production % of total world metal production value

Page 31: Welcome and comments on Nordic mining scene

Source: Raw Materials Data.

Exploration projects

Page 32: Welcome and comments on Nordic mining scene

Source: Raw Materials Data.

Canadian exploration

Page 33: Welcome and comments on Nordic mining scene

Source: Raw Materials Data.

Name Country Status Type Company Main metal

Iso-Kuotko Gold Deposit Finland Project, no spec Agnico-Eagle Au

Kittilä Gold Mine Finland Operating OP,UG Agnico-Eagle Au

Kylmäkangas Gold/Silver Deposit Finland Conceptual UG Agnico-Eagle Au

Apajalahti Gold Deposit Finland Project, no spec Belvedere Au

Hirsikangas Gold Deposit Finland Conceptual UG Belvedere Au

Hitura Nickel Mine Finland Susp, restart/constr OP,UG Belvedere Ni

Jouhineva Copper/Cobalt Deposit Finland Project, no spec Belvedere Cu

Kaskela/Susineva Zinc Deposit Finland Conceptual Belvedere Zn

Kopsa Gold Deposit Finland Conceptual Belvedere Au

Kouvervaara Cobalt Deposit Finland Conceptual OP Belvedere Co

Osikonmäki Gold Deposit Finland Prefeasibility Belvedere Au

Pirilä Gold Deposit Finland Conceptual Belvedere Au

Vesiperä Gold Deposit Finland Conceptual Belvedere Au

Ängeslampi Gold/Copper Deposit Finland Conceptual Belvedere Au

Lappvattnet Nickel Deposit Sweden Prefeasibility UG Blackstone Ventr Ni

Njuggträskliden/Juggs Nickel Deposit Sweden Conceptual Blackstone Ventr Ni

Björkråmyran Uranium Deposit Sweden Conceptual Cont Precious U

Kvarnån Uranium Deposit Sweden Conceptual Cont Precious U

Lilljuthatten Uranium Deposit Sweden Prefeasibility Cont Precious U

Nöjdfjället Uranium Deposit Sweden Conceptual Cont Precious U

Pleutajokk Uranium Deposit Sweden Prefeasibility Cont Precious U

Canadian operations I

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Source: Raw Materials Data.

Name Country Status Type Company Main metal

Skuppesavon Uranium Deposit Sweden Conceptual OP,UG Cont Precious U

Sågtjärn Uranium Deposit Sweden Conceptual Cont Precious U

Viken Uranium Deposit Sweden Prefeasibility OP Cont Precious U

Björkdal Gold Mine Sweden Operating, exp OP,UG Elgin Au

Norrliden Zinc/Copper Deposit Sweden Prefeasibility UG Elgin, Kopparberg Zn

Duobblon Uranium Deposit Sweden Conceptual European U U

Kläppibäcken Uranium Deposit Sweden Conceptual European U U

Nuottijärvi Uranium Deposit Finland Conceptual European U U

Kevitsa Polymetallic Mine Finland Operating OP First Quantum Ni

Pyhäsalmi Zinc Mine Finland Operating UG First Quantum Zn

Woxna (Kringel) Graphite Mine Sweden Susp, restart/plans Flinders Res IM

Brännorna Nickel Deposit Sweden Conceptual Lundin Mining Ni

Mjövattnet Nickel Deposit Sweden Conceptual Lundin Mining Ni

Rörmyrberget Nickel Deposit Sweden Conceptual UG Lundin Mining Ni

Storliden Zinc/Copper Mine Sweden Closed UG Lundin Mining Zn

Svartliden Copper Deposit Sweden Abandoned project Lundin Mining Cu

Zinkgruvan Zinc/Lead Mine Sweden Operating, exp UG Lundin Mining Zn

Rompas Gold/Uranium Deposit Finland Project, no spec Mawson Resources Au

Tåsjö Uranium/Rare Earths/Phosphate Sweden Conceptual Mawson Resources U

Kaukua PGM/Gold Deposit Finland Conceptual OP Nortec Pd

Barsele Gold Deposit Sweden Conceptual OP Orex Minerals Au

Norra Kärr Rare Earths Deposit Sweden Conceptual Tasman Metals REO

Olserum Rare Earths Deposit Sweden Conceptual OP Tasman Metals REO

Otanmäki Rare Earths Deposit Finland Conceptual OP Tasman Metals REO

Sala Silver Deposit Sweden Project, no spec Tumi Res Ag

Canadian operations II

Source: Raw Materials Data.

Page 35: Welcome and comments on Nordic mining scene

Source: Raw Materials Group.

Equipment producers I Company Products Website

ABB Engineering, power, hoists www.abb.com

Alimak Hek Elevators, lifts, hoists www.alimakhek.com

Atlas Copco Drill rigs, LHD and more www.atlascopco.com

Bergteamet Mining Contractor www.bergteamet.se

Driconeq Drill pipes www.driconeq.com

Drillcon Drilling contractors www.drillcon.se

GIA (part of Atlas Copco) Underground utility vehicles www.gia.se/gia

Hägglunds Drives Drive solutions www.hagglunds.se

ITT Flygt Pumps www.flygt.se

Kemira Chemicals www.kemira.com

Larox (part of Outotec) Filtration equipment www.outotec.com

Metso Crushers and more www.metso.com

Normet Underground utility vehicles www.normet.fi

Outotec Process engineering and more www.outotec.com

Sandvik Drill rigs, LHD, and more www.sandvik.com

Scania Trucks www.scania.com

Volvo Construction Trucks, loaders www.volvoce.com

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Source: Raw Materials Group.

Equipment producers II Company Products Website

Global Drillers Drilling training and staffing www.globaldrillers.com

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Mine investments Sweden

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3%

1996

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

% of total

Source: Swedish Statistics Office.

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Nordic mine investments

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3%

1996

Kiruna

Kaunisvaara

Dannemora Sydvaranger

Talvivaara

Kevitsa

Aitik

Garpenberg

Kittilä

Laiva Kankberg Kemi

Järn

Nickel

Koppar

Zink/Bly

Guld

Krom

Source: Raw Materials Group.

Iron ore Nickel Copper Zinc/lead Gold Chromite

Page 39: Welcome and comments on Nordic mining scene

Conference

When/

Frequeny Organizer Where Booths Website

Partici

pants

Focus area

Euro Mine

Expo *

12-14 June

2014,

Biannual

Georange/Nolia Skellefteå,

Sweden >200

www.euromine

xpo.se

500

Mining industry,

Exploration, mining,

equipment suppliers,

service and consultants

Mining trade

fair

11–12

September

2013

Tampereen

Messut Oy/

Tekes

Tampere,

Finland 200

www.eurominin

g.fi/ 800 Mining technology

Finnmateria

19-20 Nov

2014

Annual

Jyväskylä

Paviljonki

Jyväskylä,

Finland 140

www.jklpaviljon

ki.fi/finnmateria

2012/eng.php

4000

Mining industry, metal

processing industry, rock

material industry and

earth construction

Fenno-

scandian

Exploration

Mining FEM*

29-31 Oct

2013,

Biannual

FEM, partners

PDAC,

Canadian

Embassy

Levi,

Finland 100 fem.lappi.fi/en

900

Exploration, mining,

ccompanies, academia,

geological surveys.

“Nordic PDAC”.

Mining on Top-

Stockholm *

26-27 Nov

2013,

Annual

IntierraRMG Stockholm,

Sweden 20

miningontop.co

m/stockholm

200

Exploration & mining

companies, investors,

financial community

Mining on Top-

Finland *

16-17 Sep

2013,

Annual

IntierraRMG Helsinki,

Finland 15

miningontop.co

m/helsinki 100

Exploration & mining

companies, investors,

financial community

Framtidens-

Gruv &

Mineralindustri

27-29 Jan

2014,

Annual

Nordic

publishing/

Georange

Stockholm,

Sweden 22

www.framtiden

sgruvochminer

al.se

300 Seminar, mining,

sustainability No

te:

* =

In

En

glis

h

.

Trade fairs/conferences

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SWOT: Strengths

• Finland and Sweden are underexplored compared to other regions with similar geological endowment in Canada, Australia and West Africa.

• The infrastructure, both transport lines such as railways and roads and telecommunications are well developed.

• The attitudes of the public and authorities towards exploration and mining are, in spite of some protests, in general positive in particular in the regions where mining is most important ie the nortern parts of the Sweden and Finland. The ”resource nationalism”, which is spreading in developing countries have few proponents in Europe. On the contrary the political interest in exploration and mining in Brussels is increasing after a trough in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

• The mining cluster is strong with world leading equipment suppliers and consultants.

• Academic research is of high international standard.

• Legislation is up-to-date and open to foreign investors.

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SWOT: weaknesses

• Government in Sweden has not fully understood the

importance of the sector and the support from central

authorities is not as solid in Sweden as in Finland.

• The availability of experienced staff to carry out all phases of

exploration and mining projects is still acceptable but there

might be a shortage developing in the next couple of years.

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SWOT: opportunities

• Major investments in exploration and mining projects are

underway in both Sweden and Finland.

• European support for the sector will be chanelled to the

Arctic regions of Sweden and Finland.

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SWOT: threats

• New mining law in Finland has put high fees on exploration

which might in the long run dampen international interest.

• The Mining inspectorate in both Sweden and Finland will not

be able to handle applications for exploration and mining

permits without long delays up to 6-9 months.

• Lack of students entering the mining schools.

• Aboriginal issues (Sami people) have been perceived not to

have been treated in accordance with international best

practice.

Page 44: Welcome and comments on Nordic mining scene

Conclusions

• Dynamic, underexplored region compared to similar regions world wide.

• Highly significant new deposits being discovered, Sakatti for example.

• Europe’s leading mining region.

• Established mining companies: LKAB, Boliden, Outokumpu and otehrs.

• High level of investments continue for rest of decade.

• World class equipment manufacturers: Atlas, Metso, Outotec, Sandvik etc.

• Dynamic cluster of consultants and emerging producers.

• Europe’s leading R&D efforts and well established universities and mining

schools.

• Leading role in European Innovation Partnership and other EU programs.

• Advantageous legislation and regional understanding of mining industry

demands.