Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012
-
Upload
global-utmaning -
Category
Technology
-
view
1.172 -
download
0
description
Transcript of Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012
![Page 1: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Transforming the Global Economy Through 80%
Improvements in Resource Productivity: How to Do It
Prof. Ernst Ulrich von Weizsäcker Co-Chairman
Towards a Circular Economy: Driving Forces
and Obstacles –What Are the Policy Challenges?
Stockholm, Kulturhuset, 16 April, 2012
![Page 2: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
What do we mean by
Sustainable Development?
![Page 3: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Sustainable development means small ecological footprints
and a high Human Development Index (HDI)
0 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 HDI
Ecologica
l
footprints
(hectares)
2
4
6
8
10
The sustainability
rectangle
High HDI
Small ecol. footprints
![Page 4: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Alas, only one country currently populates
the sustainability rectangle
Cuba Source:
Global Footprints Network
![Page 5: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
If 7 b people would insist having
footprints like US Americans, we
would need 5 planets Earth
![Page 6: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Energy is about half of the footprints.
It is also the limiting factor for the circular
economy. And it has direct environmental
effects, notably global warming and
nuclear radiation.
![Page 7: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
.
We seem to be destabilizing Greenland. (Freshwater
coverage during Summers 1992 and 2002)
![Page 8: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Sea level rise can take catastrophic speed!
(after Michael Tooley. Global sea-levels: floodwaters mark sudden rise. Nature 342 (6245), p 20 - 21
1989)
![Page 9: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Areas in red are under water if the
Greenland ice breaks off. How about
Stockholm? Bangladesh Florida
![Page 10: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
The Fukushima disaster looks like the final
blow to nuclear energy.
The Tsunami causes a nuclear desaster
( NTV Japan) The radioactive cloud after 7 days
(Blog alexanderhiggins.com)
![Page 11: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
So far, GDP goes with CO2 intensity.
![Page 12: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
We have to break this correlation, i.e. creating a Kuznets
Curve of decarbonization.
„rich and
carbon free“
![Page 13: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
And then help poorer countries tunneling through.
„rich and
carbon free“
![Page 14: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
PV as large as airports (Saxony, Germany) Wind turbines,- do you want such neighbours?
Hydrodams : no end of conflicts! Endless palmoil plantations (here in Malysia)
Renewable energies for decarbonization? They are fine in small sizes
but can be nasty in large quantities.
![Page 15: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Let‘s calculate: if 1b people (the rich) achieve 20%
new renewables, that‘s 1/35 of what you would need
for 7b people on earth.
Developing
countries
NIC‘s
Old industrial-
ized countries
And now imagine a 35fold increase of today‘s biofuels
plantations, wind power, hydopower, solar power. It‘s an
ecological nightmare!
![Page 16: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
In other words, decarbonization is
just not good enough. We should
also create a Kuznets Curve of
energy consumption!
![Page 17: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
GDP also goes with Domestic Material
Consumption (DMC)
The picture is from the first Decoupling report of the Interntional Resource Panel
![Page 18: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
For DMC, too, we should create a Kuznets Curve.
![Page 19: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
… and assist developing countries to tunnel through
![Page 20: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Creating the those new
Kuznets Curves, - that‘s
the agenda of
Decoupling.
![Page 21: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
In other words: a Green Kondratiev Cycle,
after five brown Cycles.
Mechanization
Steel &
railroads
Electricity,
chemicals,cars
TV, aviation,
computers,
Biotech
IT
Energy productivity,
renew. Energy.
Cyclical economy
![Page 22: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
I come back to the Green
Kondratiev in a moment.
But what can we do for the short-
cut for developing countries?
![Page 23: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
It was proposed by the Indian PM Manmohan
Singh. It means the North would have to go
shopping for emission rights in the South.
But that was 5 years ago. Meanwhile India,
like China, are no longer willing to go for it,
saying they need more energy per capita than
the old industrial countries.
The best solution is per capita equal CO2
emission rights
![Page 24: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Nevertheless, some kind of „carbon
justice“ approach is needed. It would
make it profitable in developing countries
to become very energy efficient and to
turn to renewable energies.
Efficiency technology would rapidly
migrate to the South. And hundreds of
plans for new coal power plants could be
scrapped.
![Page 25: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Back now to the technology task of
decoupling prosperity from energy.
Let us think bold about efficiency!
![Page 26: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Imagine a bucket
of water of 10 kg
weight
How many
Kilowatt-
hours
do you need to lift
it from sea level
to the top of
Mount Everest?
![Page 27: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
The answer is:
One quarter of a
kilowatthour!
(knowing that one watt-
second is one Joule or one
Newton-meter; ¼ kwh is
900.000 watt-seconds)
1 kwh
![Page 28: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Bold efficiency thinking is at the heart of Factor Five
December, 2009 March, 2010 October, 2010
![Page 29: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
The Blue Economy Das Buch
Another bold approach, also a Report to the Club of Rome, is
Building the Blue Economy 10 years, 100 innovations, 100 million jobs
The Blue Economy
- by Gunter Pauli. From over 2.000
innovations, he selected 100 that are
published on a weekly basis at
www.blue.economy.de
![Page 30: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
A factor of five in the increase of resource productivity
could pull or push most countries into sustainability!
0 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 HDI
Ecol. Footprints (hectares per person)
2
4
6
8
10
The sustainability rectangle
High HDI
Small footprints
![Page 31: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Amory Lovins’ “Hyper-car”, or
“Revolution”:
1,5 l/100km
Today’s fleet
6-12 l/100km
Superefficient cars
![Page 32: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
“Passive houses”: a factor of ten more heat efficient
![Page 33: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
LED replacing incandescent bulbs: a factor of 10
Philips 7W Master LED
Energy efficiency
![Page 34: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Energy efficiency
From Portland cement to geopolymer cement
(e.g. fly ashes from coal power plants).
![Page 35: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
From 12 lane highways to bicycle centered cities
Atlanta Copenhagen
![Page 36: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Atlanta is 25 times larger than Barcelona, but
has a smaller population Ic
h d
ank
e G
eoff
rey H
eal
für
die
Üb
erla
ssu
ng d
es B
ild
es
![Page 37: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
From endless business travel to telepresence meetings
![Page 38: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
From using water once to purifying (recycling) it
![Page 39: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
From flood irrigation to advanced drip irrigation
Water efficiency
(Source: www.driptech.com)
![Page 40: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
From excessive mining to the Cyclical Economy
![Page 41: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Two more
dragons have to
be confronted:
The Jevons
Paradox, and
A new UNCTAD
study on illusions
of green growth
![Page 42: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
The Jevons Paradox is also known as rebound effect
William Stanley Jevons in his
famous book, The Coal Question
observed that England's
consumption of coal soared after
James Watt introduced his coal-
fired steam engine, which greatly
improved the efficiency of earlier
engines.
![Page 43: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
The rebound effect is actually a very old phenomenon!
The Neolithic Revolution: a hundredfold increase of ‚land
efficiency‘, - followed by a hundredfold increase of population!
http://www.kamat.com/database/content/prehistoric_theater/klk621.jpg
http://history-world.org/agriculture.htm
Hunters-Gatherers
(after a cave painting) Early agriculture
![Page 44: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Ulrich Hoffmann demolishing green growth illusions
![Page 45: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Based on Tim Jackson‘s ‚Prosperity Without Growth‘, Hofmann
sees the need for a 21-fold ‚decarbonization‘ to reach climate goals.
![Page 46: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
How do we deal
with the two
dragons?
The answer is twofold in terms of technology and
behaviour: efficiency and sufficiency
… and simple/ one-fold in terms of policy:
let prices do the job.
![Page 47: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
To understand the „power of prices“,
let us look back into the history of the
Industrial Revolution.
Labour productivity increased twentyfold
since 1850. It did so almost exactly in
parallel with gross labour „prices“ (wages).
![Page 48: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
Not a surprise for wage negotiators: wages and labour
productivity rose in parallel.
This is a fifty years time-window from the United States
![Page 49: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
On resource prices, what you usually see is the alarm about rising
prices
![Page 50: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
Prices of industrial commodities & energy, in constant dollars
But put in a long term (200 years) perspective, resource prices
were usually falling!
2000-2004
![Page 51: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
And don‘t fall for the
Peak Oil illusion!
TIME on 9th April:
New breakthroughs are
actually increasing
global supplies.
The reason: tolerance
for dirty operations is
steadily increasing!
![Page 52: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
What I am proposing, therefore, is a
political decision to artificially raise
energy and other resource prices in
parallel with documented efficiency
increases, so that average expenses
for energy services would remain
stable. (Some „life-line“ low prices
can be accepted for the poor.)
![Page 53: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
High energy prices need not hurt the economy. Japan
blossomed during the 15 years of highest energy prices!
![Page 54: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
One lesson from this is: pioneers need
not wait for the slow ones.
Also developing countries can benefit
from gradually increasing domestic
energy prices.
![Page 55: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
For the material Circular Economy,
rising energy prices would also serve
as a big push.
But additional measures are
conceivable such as slowly rising
charges on mineral extraction.
![Page 56: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
Who would win, who would lose?
(1. inside countries)
Winning: IT, generally high tech; crafts; science;
education; green businesses; railroads; leasing (all
the great ideas proposed by Walter Stahel!);
maintenance; culture.
Losing: air traffic; extractive industry, heavy
industry (some), development of urban sprawl,
wasteful consumers.
Some adjustments (eg revenue neutrality for
vulnerable sectors of industry) can avoid losses.
![Page 57: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
Who would win, who would lose?
(2. among countries)
Winning: Europe, East Asia, developing
countries poor in natural resources. That is
some 90% of the world population!
Losing: USA, Canada, Australia, Russia,
commodity exporting developing countries.
![Page 58: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
Red & orange: high per capita CO2 emissions, - the usual
suspects.
![Page 59: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
I foresee, at the horizon, an alliance of the
winners: Europe, Asia, Oceania and much of
Africa and Latin America, on
• real climate policy;
• ecological price policies;
• developing the 21st century technologies
& habits.
![Page 60: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
In a world of basically scarce resources (and
here I side with McKinsey‘s 2011 study),
countries and companies pioneering efficiency
(and sufficiency) will be the game winners.
![Page 61: Weizsäcker stockholm-april16-2012](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052621/558c1fecd8b42a43138b4585/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
Let me conclude: Decoupling prosperity from carbon intensity is
doable, both in the North and the South.
North-South „carbon justice“ is indispensible.
Prices should make the transition profitable.
No need for pioneers to wait for the slow ones.