Weight of Evidence Checklist Update - wrapair.org · Weight of Evidence Checklist Update AoH...

Weight of Evidence Checklist Update

AoH Meeting – Seattle, WAApril 25, 2006

Joe Adlhoch - Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

Review of RHR Visibility Goals

Define current conditions in at each Class I area using the 2000-04 baseline periodDefine “natural conditions”Improve visibility such that the average Haze Index (measured in DECIVIEW) for the 20% worst days in the baseline period reach “natural conditions” by 2064Ensure that visibility on the 20% best days does not degradePeriodically assess the improvement in visibility between the baseline period and 2064 and show that “reasonable progress” is being achieved

Draft WOE Checklist (Step 1)

Summary of available informationGeneral Class I area information (location, size, topography, discussion of importance, etc.)Overview summary of basic data sets:

Visibility monitoringEmission inventories (state and WRAP summaries?)Modeling results

Will vary according to state (e.g., no CMAQ modeling done for AK; some states have international borders)Style will be customized by each state


Analysis of visibility conditionsWhat are current (baseline, 2000-04) visibility conditions?

What is the relative importance of each species?

What does the RHR glide path look like?What are estimated natural visibility conditions?What does the model predict for 2018?

Baseline Conditions at Agua Tibia

Species Contribution Sulfate High Nitrate High Organics Medium EC Medium CM Medium Soil Low

Uniform Rate of Reasonable Progress Glide PathAgua Tibia Wilderness - 20% Worst Days

23.022.0

19.3

16.7

14.0

11.4

8.87.2

21.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048 2052 2056 2060 2064

Year

Haz

ines

s In

dex

(Dec

ivie

ws)

Glide Path Natural Condition (Worst Days) Observation Method 1 Prediction

RHR Glide Path for Agua Tibia

Model results for the 2018 base case do not predict AguaTibia’s visibility (in terms of deciview) will be on or below the glide path


Analysis of visibility conditions by individual species

What do individual species glide paths (measured in extinction) look like?

Need to define natural conditions appropriately (following examples assume “annual average” natural conditions, not 20% worst)Which species show predicted 2018 values at or below the glide path?

Species Glide Paths for Agua Tibia

symbol represents 2018 model prediction

Nitrate, EC, and Soil follow glide path

Sulfate, OM, and CM do not follow glide path


Review monitoring uncertainties and model performance for each species

What level of monitoring uncertainties are associated with each species?

Lab uncertainties (can be calculated from IMPROVE data setOther uncertainties (flow rate problems, clogged filters) may be difficult to quantify

How does the model predict the monitoring data?Good model performance is most important for highest contributing speciesWhat does performance look like seasonally and over all?

Median Laboratory Uncertainty of IMPROVE Data Across WRAP

Uncertainty based only on lab reported uncertainties for daily samples (2000 – 2004)

OC, EC, Soil, and CM uncertainty determined from standard propagation of error analysis on individual component termsUncertainty due to flow/size cut errors not included

Monitored Species

Median Uncertainty

(%)Sulfate 5Nitrate 9

Organic C 18Elemental C 47

Soil 4Coarse Mass 12

IMPROVE (top) vs. Model (bottom)

How well are the seasonal variations in each species captured, even if the magnitude is off?

2002 Model Performance, Worst DaysWorst 20% Obs (left) vs Plan02a (right) at AGTI1

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

59 89 92 134 137 191 212 224 227 230 239 248 284 287 293 296 299 302 305 329 - - - - - avg

Julian Day in Worst 20% group

bEXT

(1/M

m) bCM

bSOILbECbOCbNO3bSO4

Nitrate and Carbon often reasonable

Sulfate somewhat low

CM shows very poor performance


Integrate information about each species: monitoring, modeling, and emissions data

Do changes in emissions agree with model predictions for 2018?

How do we know what source region of emissions to compare?Weight emissions by back trajectory residence times for an estimate of potential emissions that might be expected to impact a given Class I area

Do weighted emissions described above support attribution results derived from PSAT and PMF?

Inter-AnnualBaseline Variability (Mm-1)

Baseline MeasurementUncertainty (Mm-1)

Baseline Extinction with Lab Uncertainty

and Variability

Predicted 2018 Extinction

Natural Conditions and Glide Path

Sum of Weighted Emissions

affecting site

Summary Tables

PSAT or PMF Attribution Results (Phase I TSSA shown)

Contributing Source Regions

determined by Back

Trajectory Residence

Times

Agua Tibia, CA

Total SO2 emissions X residence time = weighted emissions

Weighted emissions represent most probable source region emissions which contribute to sulfate at the selected monitoring site.

Measured and Projected Ammonium Sulfate and SO2 Emissions

AGTI1, CA

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2002

2008

2013

2018

2023

2028

2033

2038

2043

2048

2053

2059

2064

Extin

ctio

n (M

m-1

)

0K

300K

600K

900K

1,200K

1,500K

1,800K

2,100K

2,400K

2,700K

3,000K

Emis

sion

s (to

ns/y

ear)

EmissionsAnthropogenic SO2PointAreaOff-Road MobileOn-Road MobileOffshoreOil & GasFireNatural SO2Fire

AerosolAmm. SulfateBaselineglideslope2018 Base Case (v1*)Nat. Conditions



DRAFT* These examples show the sum of all WRAP region emissions

Measured and Projected Ammonium Nitrate and NOX Emissions

AGTI1, CA

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

36

40

2002

2008

2013

2018

2023

2028

2033

2038

2043

2048

2053

2059

2064

Extin

ctio

n (M

m-1

)

0K

1,000K

2,000K

3,000K

4,000K

5,000K

6,000K

7,000K

8,000K

9,000K

10,000K

Emis

sion

s (to

ns/y

ear)

EmissionsAnthropogenic NOXPointAreaOff-Road MobileOn-Road MobileOffshoreOil & GasFireNatural NOXBiogenicFire

AerosolAmm. NitrateBaselineglideslope2018 Base Case (v1*)Nat. Conditions



DRAFT* These examples show the sum of all WRAP region emissions

Measured and Projected Particulate Organic Material and VOC Emissions

AGTI1, CA

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2002

2008

2013

2018

2023

2028

2033

2038

2043

2048

2053

2059

2064

Extin

ctio

n (M

m-1

)

0K

5,000K

10,000K

15,000K

20,000K

25,000K

30,000K

35,000K

40,000K

45,000K

50,000K

Emis

sion

s (to

ns/y

ear)

EmissionsAnthropogenic VOCPointAreaOff-Road MobileOn-Road MobileOffshoreOil & GasFireNatural VOCBiogenicFire

AerosolOrganic MatterBaselineglideslope2018 Base Case (v1*)Nat. Conditions



VERY DRAFT* These examples show the sum of all WRAP region emissions

Measured and Projected Elemental Carbon and PM2.5 EmissionsAGTI1, CA

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2002

2008

2013

2018

2023

2028

2033

2038

2043

2048

2053

2059

2064

Extin

ctio

n (M

m-1

)

0K

30K

60K

90K

120K

150K

180K

210K

240K

270K

300K

Emis

sion

s (to

ns/y

ear)

Emissions

Anthropogenic PM2.5

Fire

Off-Road Mobile

On-Road Mobile

Natural PM2.5

Fire

Aerosol

Elemental Carbon

Baseline

glideslope

2018 Base Case (v1*)

Nat. Conditions




Measured and Projected Coarse Mass and PMC Emissions

AGTI1, CA

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

2002

2008

2013

2018

2023

2028

2033

2038

2043

2048

2053

2059

2064

Extin

ctio

n (M

m-1

)

0K

1,000K

2,000K

3,000K

4,000K

5,000K

6,000K

7,000K

8,000K

9,000K

10,000K

11,000K

12,000K

Emis

sion

s (to

ns/y

ear)

EmissionsAnthropogenic PMCPointAreaOff-Road MobileOn-Road MobileFireDustNatural PMCFireDust

AerosolCoarse MassBaselineglideslope2018 Base Case (v1*)Nat. Conditions




Measured and Projected Soil and PM2.5 Emissions

AGTI1, CA

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2002

2008

2013

2018

2023

2028

2033

2038

2043

2048

2053

2059

2064

Extin

ctio

n (M

m-1

)

0K

200K

400K

600K

800K

1,000K

1,200K

1,400K

1,600K

1,800K

2,000K

Emis

sion

s (to

ns/y

ear)

Emissions

Anthropogenic PM2.5

Off-Road Mobile

On-Road Mobile

Fire

Dust

Natural PM2.5

Fire

Dust

Aerosol

Soil

Baseline

glideslope

2018 Base Case (v1*)

Nat. Conditions





Investigate specific questions that arise in steps 2 – 6Review historical trends (if sufficient data exists)Review distributions of IMPROVE mass, and expected changes predicted by the modelReview natural, episodic events for their potential impactDo the results so far make sense? If not, deeper investigation of data sets may be requiredAre there reasonable explanations for species that show and don’t show progress along the glide path?Consider the other factors mandated by the RHR to determine reasonable progress


Repeat steps 2 – 6 with emissions and model results from various control strategies

How do specific control strategies affect the outcome?


Review available attribution information and determine which states need to consult about which Class I areas

PSAT will be available for sulfate and nitrate (and possible some portion of organics)PMF will be available for all species (?), but may be used primarily for carbon (?)Emissions weighted by residence times will be available for all species (pending certain sensitivity tests and caveats)

Weight of Evidence Checklist Update - wrapair.org · Weight of Evidence Checklist Update AoH...

Documents

Transcript of Weight of Evidence Checklist Update - wrapair.org · Weight of Evidence Checklist Update AoH...