Weekly Weather Flash - Fung Business Intelligence Word - Weekly Weather Flash by FBIC Global Retail...

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United States THIS WEEK: The Warm Trend Across North America Challenges Seasonal Demand, but Supports Store Traffic A LOOK AHEAD: A Cold West and Warm East Drive Contrasting Demand Trends; Storms May Disrupt Holiday Shopping Traffic Europe THIS WEEK: Abnormal Warmth Persists; Seasonal Demand Is Nowhere to Be Seen A LOOK AHEAD: Still Warmer than Normal, but Not as Warm as Last Year Weekly Weather Flash DEC.06 – DEC.19

Transcript of Weekly Weather Flash - Fung Business Intelligence Word - Weekly Weather Flash by FBIC Global Retail...

United States THIS WEEK:

The Warm Trend Across North America Challenges Seasonal Demand, but Supports Store Traffic

A LOOK AHEAD: A Cold West and Warm East

Drive Contrasting Demand Trends; Storms May Disrupt Holiday Shopping Traffic

Europe THIS WEEK:

Abnormal Warmth Persists; Seasonal Demand Is Nowhere to Be Seen

A LOOK AHEAD:

Still Warmer than Normal, but Not as Warm as Last Year

Weekly Weather

Flash

DEC.06 – DEC.19

 

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December 8, 2015

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CHN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2015  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

Temperature  vs.  Last  Year  

Source:  Planalytics  

United States  

     

   

 

Retail  implications:  Temperatures  that  are  warmer  than  normal  and  warmer  than  last  year  will  continue  to  challenge  demand  for  winter  apparel,  heaters  and  hot  drinks.  

• Last  year,  this  week  was  the  warmest  since  2004:  The  US  had  its  warmest  second  week  of  December  last  year  since  2004,  with  below-­‐normal  rainfall  and  the  least  snowfall  since  2011.  

• Winter  in  the  West:  The  Western  states  can  expect  another  blast  of  cold  temperatures  later  this  week.  Winter  demand  should  be  robust  in  the  region.  Storms  are  likely  to  continue  in  the  Intermountain  West,  building  early  season  snowpack.  

• Still  raining:  Heavy  rain  will  continue  throughout  the  week  across  the  Pacific  Northwest,  bringing  the  potential  for  flash  flooding.  The  Plains  and  Midwest  can  expect  showers  late  in  the  week.  

   

Restaurant  Traffic  +1.4%  Hats  &  Gloves  -­‐10%  

Heaters  -­‐23%  

L ÖÖÕ QÒ ĜÖŎÖP ÓÖŘ Đ–ĈĊ

 

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December 8, 2015

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CHN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2015  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

Source:  Planalytics  

United States

             

 

Retail  implications:  Markets  in  the  eastern  half  of  North  America  will  remain  warm,  continuing  to  depress  demand  for  winter  clothing,  soup  and  firewood.  

• Last  year,  this  week  was  the  warmest  since  2006:  Last  year,  the  third  week  of  December  was  the  warmest  it  had  been  since  2006.  Rainfall  was  slightly  below  normal  and  the  least  seen  since  2011.  

• Return  to  stormy  weather  to  hamper  holiday  shoppers:  As  the  holiday  shopping  season  ramps  up,  the  weather  will  become  more  uncooperative.  A  parade  of  storms  will  push  across  the  continent,  bringing  periods  of  rain.  Precipitation  is  expected  for  most  areas,  but  will  be  heaviest  in  the  eastern  regions.  

• Snow  is  expected:  With  the  increase  in  storms,  there  is  potential  for  wintry  conditions  across  the  West,  expanding  into  the  Northern  Plains,  Upper  Midwest  and  the  interior  of  the  Northeast.  

Long-­‐Sleeve  Knits  -­‐2%  

Temperature  vs.  Last  Year  

L ÖÖÕ QÒ ĜÖŎÖP ÓÖŘ ĈD-ĈĔ

 

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December 8, 2015

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CHN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2015  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

Source:  Planalytics  

Europe  

   

 

 

   

 

Retail  implications:  It  will  be  another  challenging  week  for  weather-­‐driven  sales  of  winter  products.  

• Abnormal  warmth  persists:  An  upper-­‐level  high-­‐pressure  system  will  be  anchored  over  the  continent,  helping  to  keep  temperatures  in  place  that  are  much  warmer  than  last  year  and  normal.  Much  of  the  Southeast  will  also  warm  up,  with  colder  air  lingering  only  from  Greece  to  Turkey.  

• A  bit  drier:  As  the  high-­‐pressure  system  strengthens,  the  storm  track  will  shift  a  bit  to  the  north.  Central  Europe  will  be  drier,  but  storms  will  still  pound  the  North  with  wind  and  rain.  

   

Temperature  vs.  Last  Year  

Heaters  (Netherlands)  ↓  Soup  (Spain)  ↓  

L ÖÖÕ QÒ ĜÖŎÖP ÓÖŘ Đ–ĈĊ

SOUP

 

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December 8, 2015

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CHN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2015  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

Europe

             

 

 

   

 

Retail  implications:  The  picture  will  be  more  mixed  in  terms  of  weather-­‐driven  demand,  but  seasonal  shopping  will  be  the  main  driver  for  consumers.  

• Not  as  warm  as  last  year:  Temperatures  will  remain  warmer  to  much  warmer  than  normal,  but  will  not  match  the  unusually  warm  run-­‐up  to  Christmas  last  year.  

• Wetter  weather  coming:  High  pressure  will  shift  to  the  east,  allowing  rain  to  track  across  the  continent.  

   

Temperature  vs.  Last  Year  

Knitwear  (France)  ↓  Heaters  (Greece)  ↓  

Source:  Planalytics  

L ÖÖÕ QÒ ĜÖŎÖP ÓÖŘ ĈD–ĈĔ

 

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December 8, 2015

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CHN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2015  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

   Deborah  Weinswig,  CPA  Executive  Director—Head  of  Global  Retail  &  Technology  Fung  Business  Intelligence  Centre  New  York:  917.655.6790    Hong  Kong:  852  6119  1779  China:  86.186.1420.3016  [email protected]    Filippo  Battaini    [email protected]  

Marie  Driscoll,  CFA  [email protected]  

John  Harmon,  CFA  [email protected]  

Aragorn  Ho  [email protected]  Yvonne  Lau  John  Mercer  [email protected]  

Shoshana  Pollack  [email protected]  

Kiril  Popov  [email protected]  

Jing  Wang    [email protected]  

Steven  Winnick  [email protected]  

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