Weekly Studies 080810

8/9/2019 Weekly Studies 080810

1/5The Lonely TraderDisclaimer: All information is provided as ma rket commentary and not as investment or trading advice. The Loneexpressly disclaims liability, without limitation, for losses or damages resulting from reliance on such information

results are no guarantee of future performance. Please consult a registered financial advisor before risking your

Calendar GMT Event Mkt Risk Exp Prev Remarks

Monday 0130 NZ Home loans Jun Ccy Med 1.9 NZD pairs

0600 EU German trade balance C/E Med 12B 9.7B DAX, ESX, EUR pairs

0830 EZ Sentix investor confidence Aug Equ Med 2.0 -1.3 DAX, ESX intraday

2301 UK RICS house prices Jul Ccy Med 5.0 9.0 GBP pairsuesday 0000 JP Cabinet office monthly econ report Ccy High JPY pairs

BoJ rate decision C/E High 0.10 0.10 JPY pairs, leading equity indices (price

0130 AU NAB business confidence Jul Ccy Med 8 AUD pairs, watch conditions

0600 EU German CPI Jul final YoY, MoM C/E Med 1.1 1.1 EUR, DAX, ESX, watch harmonized figu

0830 UK DCLG house prices Jun YoY Ccy Med 9.8 11.0 GBP pairs

Visible trade balance Jun Ccy M/L -7.8B -8.06B See above, likely priced in

1215 CA Housing starts Jul C/E Med 184K 192.8K CAD pairs, ES intraday (priced in?)

1815 US FOMC rate decision Aug 10 C/E High 0.25 0.25 USD pairs, indices (priced in, watch stm

2301 UK GBP consumer confidence Jul Ccy Med 61 63 GBP pairs

Wednesday 0030 AU Westpac consumer confidence Aug Ccy Med 11.1 AUD pairs

0830 UK Claimant jobless claims C/E High 15K 20.8K Z, GBP pairs, watch claimant count rat

0930 Quarterly inflation report C/E High See above, priced in

1230 CA Int'l merchandise trade Jun Ccy Med 0.5B CAD pairsUS Trade balance Jun C/E Med -42.2B -42.3B Indices, USD pairs, priced in

1800 US Budget statement Jul Equ M/L -180.7B See above

hursday 0130 AU Unemployment rate Jul Ccy High 5.1 AUD pairs, watch change for 20K

0500 JP Consumer confidence Jul Ccy M/L 43.9 43.5 JPY pairs

0800 EU ECB monthly report Aug C/E Med DAX, ESX, EUR pairs, priced in

0900 EZ industrial production Jun YoY C/E Med 0.7 DAX, ESX, EUR pairs, priced in

1230 US Import price index Jul YoY Equ Med 0.4 -1.3 ES, TF, YM intraday

2245 NA Retail sales Jul Ccy Med 0.5 0.4 NZD pairs, watch ex auto/inflation

riday 0600 EU German GDP Q2 YoY C/E M/H 2.4 1.6 DAX, ESX, EUR pairs, preliminary

0900 EU EZ GDP Q2 YoY C/E High 1.4 0.6 See above

1230 US CPI Jul C/E High 1.2 1.1 All markets, intraday, watch core/ex-

Advance retail sales Jul C/E High 0.4 -0.5 See above1355 US Univ. of Michigan confidence Aug C/E Med 69.8 67.8 See above, preliminary

nother word about EURJPY.

Basing continues, but the relative weakness of EUR compared

other key currencies (except USD of course) suggests the leve

commitment to risk required to reverse bearish sentiment in

global markets is still lacking. This is confirmed by just about e

piece of economic data and punditry in the MSFM.

Low volume should continue, with market internals

supporting a summer range. Volatility in this context will be sand unpredictable, I believe. Last week's culmination in poor

jobs data has given everyone pause. Some are speculating thi

give the Fed that much more reason to continue suffocating t

USD. The thinking is that the single best option for repairing t

US economy at this point is through export-led growth -- beca

it could be a very long time before the job market and consum

spending recover.

This week we have a full calendar. I'll be watching Fri

growth and inflationary data in particular.

eeklyurnal

Aug 2010

NFP has given the market a reality check, although very few instruments that I monitor had convincing bearish prints

at the weekly close. All except the ES broke through key levels early in the week and have held above, though gains

remain precarious at this stage. This week, the major market moving events for the US and EU indices kick off on

Tuesday, with FOMC. The weeks ends with EU GDP and US CPI, along with advance retail sales.

6E long abv 1.3125 (!) ES nxt rez 1130, 1147 (!) DAX neutral to long blw 6400 (!) CL buy dips abv 80 (!)

Will basing continue, signaling

increasing commitment to risk?




uro weekly studies

uro Sept contract has broken and held above key resistance. The bounce at 1.3125 suggests a move to 1.35 is underway. Th

eek the odds of a touch are about 30%. My question is whether a new range will be established above 1.3. How confident I a

answering this question will be the cornerstone to my trading strategy for the rest of the quarter. The likely range this wee

e between 250 and 370 pips. The high extreme projection is 1.3550. The low extreme projection is 1.2850. I have revised my

uess that the euro is in the process of establishing a range between 1.5 and 1.3 with possible stabs at 1.36xx and 1.27xx. My

as shifted to long above 1.3125/30, but I'm sure the euro will find some way to embarrass me. Long term (6m to 1yr), my bia

o the downside, targeting 1.2000 and 1.1500 eventually.

Weekly range extreme

Low volume on the ascent

continues, except that buyers

have initiated trade above1.3125/30, creating the conditions

(but not a guarantee) that a new

range will be established between

1.3 and 1.35. Possible upside to

1.37, but doubt we'll get there this

week.


Will the euro establish a new

range of accepted value?




S90 weekly studies

S Sept contract is rotating higher on low(er) volume. ES firmed above 1100 last week with momentary downside probes. 11

as not yet given way, so my bias is neutral going into this week. A break of 1130 opens up 1147, which is my projected weekl

gh -- note that this projection is different from the weekly extreme high at 1155. The quick recovery after Friday's NFP num

uggests there is significant support for equities -- whether due to earnings, a brighter corporate outlook and continued

nwinding of toxic assets, confirmation of a continued accommodative monetary stance, or whatever. My bias is still short be

130, long above 1147 -- but of course I'm talking about my bias only. I would not put on a short position here. Range studies

close above 1130 by Wednesday at 40%, 18% higher than last week. Odds of a touch at 1130 before Wednesday are 25%. O

f a touch at 1100 are 59%. Range extremes are at 1155 and 1085. Two week HVNs at 1120, 1118.50 (POC), 1110.50, and 110

he distribution below 1118.50 is not very well defined. Last week's range was narrower than the week before, at 26 points. M

udies indicate primary range projection of 32 points and an alternate of 45 points, give or take a few.






AX weekly studies

AX Sept contract remains volatile and range bound. Volume over the past four weeks has been consistent and on the low s

ut higher high have printed and a break of 6400 looks to be close at hand. I continue to believe that as long as this index rem

bove 5600, the uptrend is still intact. My bias this week is for a correction within the range. Short term resistance levels are 6

nd 6500, with 6690 being the extreme of my weekly range studies. Short term support levels are 6250 (technical), 6110

echnical), 6060 (rejection low), 6000 (range pivot), 5910 (rejection low), and 5800 (responsive buying at major swing low). T

eek key HVNs roughly in the areas of 6345, 6300, 6280, 6221, and 6178. It's important to keep in mind that currently the DA

ts in the middle of a very large range -- from the 2008 range high to the 2009 range low.

I have NO IDEA where this market is going, other than to

say that the consolidation will continue until it doesn't .

My bias is long, but watching HLs and LHs very closely.

Composite volume profile isn't giving any clear signals.

Very messy picture here, but intraday looks much nicer

and that is the time horizon I call home with DAX.

Range extreme 6690

Range extreme 5980

Likely range limit 6510

Likely range limit 6110



lt t f f t f Pl lt i t d fi i l d i b f i ki

rude weekly studies

rude will continue to lose ground in a weak global economy, but buying continues. The breakout from the June/July range

eld, with a rejection at 80.04 after Friday's NFP release. That said, the close was bearish from a technical point of view. Range

udies suggest not more than 3.5 handles to the upside and not more than 4.5 handles to the downside, making 84.10 and 76

rojected extremes for the week, with 83 (last week's high), 80 (key support level), 76.90 (supply and support), and 76 (last w

wing low and possible range pivot) the only significant intermediate technical references. A clear break to the upside targets

break to the downside targets 72.

ments and ideas welcome. Insults

eciated, as long as they are clever....Seriously. If you have feedback or helpful

resources, let's hear it!...

Jay Schneider -- FX and futures, rang

San Diego A



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