Weekly Data And Commodity Tips

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01 JUNE 05 JUNE 2015 \ W E E K L Y R E P O R T Blow by Blow On Bullions, Base metals, Energy… WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

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1. 01 JUNE 05 JUNE 2015W E E K L Y R E P O R T Blow by Blow On Bullions, Base metals, Energy WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM 2. MAJOR EVENTS MCX Gold is trading flat as the expiry of the near month June series is capping anymajor gains in the counter. COMEX Gold remains under stress after the recent drop under$1200 with traders eying the FOMC interest rate decision and feeble sentiments inequities. Stocks extended a worn out momentum yesterday amid worries about the timing ofthe first Federal Reserve rate. Asian equities are still witnessing mixed to bearish movesand COMEX Gold is quoting at $1191 per ounce, up 0.20% on the day as a mild recovery fromthree week lows continued. The MCX Gold futures for August are trading at Rs 27108 per 10grams, almost unchanged on the day. However, modest gains have emerged in silver. MCXSilver futures are trading at Rs 38390 per kg, up 0.25% on the day. The Euro is quoting just off its one month low against the US dollar. Data out yesterday showed that the Eurozone economic sentiment index held steady at 103.8 in May,while it was forecast to fall to 103.5, survey results from the European Commissionshowed. The April figure was revised up from 103.7. The industrial confidence index camein at -3 versus -3.2 a month ago. European Central Bank will not break rules to provideany short-term financing for Greece, ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said onThursday. Sound German economic data kept oil supported in afternoon. The counter has elevated onfalling US crude inventories after the commodity tested its one month low in last session.The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its weekly petroleum status reportThursday, a day later than usual due to the Memorial Day holiday. US commercial crudeinventories decreased by 2.8 million barrels last week, maintaining a total US commercialcrude inventory of 479.4 million barrels. This data supported the counter even as the USequities eased. The WTI Crude currently quotes at $58.32 per barrel, up 0.1.10% on theday. MCX Crude oil futures are trading at Rs 3736 per barrel, up 1.85% on the day. MCX Natural gas futures are trading at Rs 173.40 per mmbtu, down 0.29% on the day. Crude is expected to find a decent support after recent declines following the slow butsteady deterioration in US commercial inventories. Falling gasoline inventories are alsoauguring positive for oil prices. Heading into the summer peak driving season, totalgasoline inventories decreased by 3.3 million barrels last week, according to the EIA, butremain near the upper limit of the five-year average range. WTI Oil Holds Above $58 After Recent Pullback. Copper Faces Worst Monthly Drop Since January 2015. Copper prices declined yet again in International markets making it the worst monthly performer since January 2015. However prices were keeping a cautious tone on the back of expectations of Chinese stimulus measures. A weaker dollar offered some support to metals as prospects for a Greece debt deal buoyed the Euro. In Japan, among a slew of data industrial output rose 1.0% provisionally month-on- month, better than the 0.8% gain seen and the first gain in three months. Household spending however fell 5.5% month-on-month in April, while national core CPI gained 0.3% year-on-year, painting a mixed picture on spending and prices. The CPI data comes as the Bank of Japan has reset efforts to boost inflation to sustained 2% from around zero by 2016. Elsewhere, there were little developments in Brussels where Greek officials continued to meet with representatives from the International Monetary Fund, European Central Bank and European Commission in an effort to reach an agreement on a bailout that could unlock critical aid the beleaguered nation may require to stave off bankruptcy. MCX Copper was trading at Rs 390.5 per kg when last checked. The prices tested a high of Rs 393.95 per kg and Rs 389.4 per kg. MCX Gold Witnesses Flat Trades, Silver Rises. 3. E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS June 1 6:00pm Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.2% 0.1% 6:00pm Personal Spending m/m 0.2% 0.4% 6:00pm Personal Income m/m 0.3% 0.0% 7:00pm FOMC Member Fischer Speaks 7:15pm Final Manufacturing PMI 54.2 53.8 7:30pm ISM Manufacturing PMI 51.9 51.5 7:30pm Construction Spending m/m 0.7% -0.6% 7:30pm ISM Manufacturing Prices 43.0 40.5 June 2 7:30pm Factory Orders m/m -0.0% 2.1% 7:30pm IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 49.8 49.7 All Day Total Vehicle Sales 17.0M 16.5M June 3 5:45pm ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 200K 169K 6:00pm Trade Balance -44.2B -51.4B 7:15pm Final Services PMI 56.5 56.4 7:30pm ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 57.2 57.8 8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories -2.8M 11:30pm Beige Book June 4 5:00pm Challenger Job Cuts y/y 52.8% 6:00pm Unemployment Claims 277K 282K 6:00pm Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q -2.8% -1.9% 6:00pm Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q 5.8% 5.0% 8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 112B 9:30pm FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks June 5 All Day ALL OPEC Meetings 6:00pm Non-Farm Employment Change 226K 223K 6:00pm Unemployment Rate 5.4% 5.4% 6:00pm Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2% 0.1% 10:00pm FOMC Member Dudley Speaks June 6 12:30am Consumer Credit m/m 16.5B 20.5B 4. S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 26700 26385 26080 27055 27365 27685 S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 37900 36950 36000 38950 39775 40600 T E C H N I C A L V I E W MCX GOLD showed bearish movement, and gave breakout of rising wedge pattern on lower side and took the support of 26700. Now, if it is able to sustain below 26700 then next major support level is seen in the range of 26500-26400. On other hand maintaining above 27000 bullish movement may move it towards the resistance range of 27250-27500. S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell below 26700 for the target of 26400 with stop loss of 27250. PIVOT TABLE G O L D PIVOT TABLE S I L V E R T E C H N I C A L V I E W MCX SILVER on daily charts showed downward movement and gave the breakout of 38850 and drag towards the next support level of 38000 and closed above it. Now, if it sustain below 38000 then next support range may seen at 37500-37000. On higher side maintaing above 39100 will again pull it towards the resistance level of 40600. S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this point of time is to sell below 38000 for the target of 37000, with stop loss of 39200. 5. C R U D E O I L C O P P E R S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 3715 3570 3425 3910 4060 4235 S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 393.40 376.30 367.80 394.50 404.35 415 T E C H N I C A L V I E W MCX Copper last week showed downward movement and gave breakout of its important support level of 395 and found the support of trendline and closed at support level of 385. Now, if it sustain below 385 on lower side then next important support level is seen around 370. On the other hand if some corrrection happens then 400 will act as important resistance level. S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to buy above 3900 for the target of 4150, with stop loss of 3650. PIVOT TABLE T E C H N I C A L V I E W MCX Crude oil last week showed bearish movement but not able to sustain below 3715 and gave strong pullback on last trading session and closed near to its resistance level of 3890. Now, if it maintains above 3900 in coming sessions then next important resistance level is seen around 4000. On the other hand 3715 again will act as important support level below which drag towards 3575. S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell below 383, with stop loss of 400 for the target of 370. PIVOT TABLE 6. WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM DISCLAIMER