22 SEPT-26 SEPT 2014

W E E K L Y

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P

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Buy on fear, sell on greed.

Buy on the rumor, sell on the news.

The trend is your friend.

Amateurs want to be right.

Professionals want to make money.

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REFERENCE RATE

(USD) 60.8055

REPO RATE 8%

REVERSE REPO 7%

CRR 4%

INFLATION 3.74%

KEY RATES As on 19/09/2014

MARKET EVENTS MARKET OUTLOOK

Indian Rupee appreciated for the

four consecutive sessions last week

on back of strong foreign fund flows

into domestic markets although it

was unable to gain much against the

dollar for the week, in line with

losses in other emerging Asian

currencies. Fed’s decision of keeping

the interest rates low negated the

volatility and rupee hit one month

low.. On domestic front, India’s FX

Reserves fell by $1.615 bn in the

week to September 12 to $315.698

bn. Now, further foreign funds will

decide rupee’s direction and

upcoming awaited event is RBI’s

Policy on Sept 30.

Rupee gains on foreign flows,

but falls for the week.

China's Yuan rises on

midpoint, seen moving

between 6.13-15 in near term

Sterling at two-year high

versus euro as Scotland rejects

independence.

Asian Currencies in Longest

Losing Streak Since Jan on Fed

CURRENCIES PREVIOUS

RATE

CURRENT

RATE % CHANGE

USDINR 60.8800 60.9100 0.04

EURINR 78.7500 78.3750 -0.47

GBPINR 98.8225 99.7350 0.92

JPYINR 56.8250 56.0075 -1.43

91

USDINR

EURINR

USDINR last week moved in tight consolidation with slight negative bias and closed below the

psychological mark of 61.0000. Any closing below 60.7000 level will result in negative breakout of

trend line acting as strong support and may further drag towards deeper supports. On other

hand, if it sustains above 61.0000 then 61.4000 may act as strict resistance.

EURINR last week again closed on lower note finding crucial support around 78.0000 mark. On

weekly charts, if it closes below 78.0000 level then it may fall towards the trend line which is

acting strong support i.e. near 76.8000. On any correction it may find resistance in the range of

78.9000-79.5000 in the coming week.

CURRENCIES S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 USDINR 60.4000

60.0000 59.6000 61.4000 62.0000 62.5000

EURINR 78.0000 77.6000 76.8000 78.9000 79.4000 79.9000

GBPINR 99.4000 98.7000 98.2000 100.4000 101.0000

101.5000

JPYINR 55.6000 55.0000 54.4000 56.5000

56.8000 57.2000

PIVOT TABLE

DATE TIME COUNTRY EVENT BLOOMBERG

ESTIMATE

PREVIOUS

LEVEL

24-SEPT-2014 8:30

PM US New Home Sales 432K 412K

25-SEPT-2014 7:00

PM US

Core Durable

Goods orders

m/m

0.7% -0.7%

25-SEPT-2014 7:00

PM US

Durable Goods

orders m/m 17.7% 22.6%

25-SEPT-2014 7:00

PM US

Unemployment

Claims 294K 380K

INTERNATIONAL UPDATES

Pound Trading Sees Scotland Vote Giving Way to Economy.

Brazil’s Real Drops to Seven-Month Low as Silva’s Support

Falls.

Dollar in Longest Rally since Days of Beatles Albums; Yen

Drops.

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DISCLAIMER