Weekly Credit Update - Danske Bank9 January 2015 Weekly Credit Update Important disclosures and...

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9 January 2015 Weekly Credit Update Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 20 of this report. Analyst Ola Heldal +47 8 540 8433 [email protected] Analyst Mads Rosendal +46 8 568 80594 [email protected]

Transcript of Weekly Credit Update - Danske Bank9 January 2015 Weekly Credit Update Important disclosures and...

Page 1: Weekly Credit Update - Danske Bank9 January 2015 Weekly Credit Update Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 20 of this report. Analyst Ola Heldal +47 8 540

9 January 2015

Weekly Credit Update

Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 20 of this report.

Analyst Ola Heldal +47 8 540 8433 [email protected]

Analyst Mads Rosendal +46 8 568 80594 [email protected]

Page 2: Weekly Credit Update - Danske Bank9 January 2015 Weekly Credit Update Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 20 of this report. Analyst Ola Heldal +47 8 540

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- Market news

- Company news

- Trade ideas

Contents

- Chart pack

- List of official and shadow ratings and recommendations

Page 3: Weekly Credit Update - Danske Bank9 January 2015 Weekly Credit Update Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 20 of this report. Analyst Ola Heldal +47 8 540

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Sources: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets (both charts)

What’s on our mind - General credit market news

• European credit indices were drifting wider at the beginning of this week on the back of a very volatile week in equity markets combined with Brent crude breaching the USD50/bl level for the first time since 2009. However, indices ground tighter towards the end of the week and are looking to close more or less unchanged from the start of the week.

• It was a quiet start to the new year in both the secondary and primary markets but the new issue market reopened at the end of this week with several issues in the senior financials space.

• Overall, it was a very quiet but volatile start to the new year and we

expect activity to pick up in coming weeks.

Page 4: Weekly Credit Update - Danske Bank9 January 2015 Weekly Credit Update Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 20 of this report. Analyst Ola Heldal +47 8 540

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BUY SASSS 2017 outright Attractive absolute value – supported by adequate liquidity

• SAS recently released its Q4 13/14 report. Although it posted results that were slightly worse than expected, we believe it was supportive from a credit perspective. This reflects the following.

• SAS has sufficient liquidity, in our view, to handle debt maturities to end-FY 2018. Cash and cash equivalents were SEK7.4bn at end-2013/14. Debt maturities to end-FY 2018 are around SEK6.6bn.

• Cash flow from operations was solid, with SEK0.8bn in Q4 13/14 and SEK1.1bn for FY 2013/14. With limited capex for the coming years (SEK1bn expected in 2014/15) and financing secured for most aircraft deliveries in 2015-17, we expect SAS to be free cash flow positive in the years to come – and to be able to maintain adequate liquidity.

• We believe the SAS 2017 offers an attractive absolute return. SAS AB is rated B-/S with adequate liquidity. Due to the significant amount of pledged assets, we estimate the bond rating at CCC+/CCC.

• SAS has hedged 43% of fuel consumption for the next 12 months. The positive impact is offset by a weaker SEK versus the USD but we estimate a positive net impact of SEK1.0-1.3bn for 2014/15. We expect the cost relief to support the bond valuation.

Brian Børsting +45 45 12 85 19 [email protected]

Niklas Ripa +45 45 12 80 47 [email protected]

SASSS 9 17

CCC

B-

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Indicative SEK-equivalent ASW spread

Years to maturity

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

Debt maturity profile, SEKm

Note: As of 31 October 2014, SAS’s financial year runs from

November to October; hence, SAS AB 2017 bond expires in SAS’s

financial year 2018; SAS AB 17 is a callable bond with first call 26

August 2016 @102.25, curve swapped to SEK

Source: Bloomberg, SAS AB, Danske Bank Markets (both charts)

Page 5: Weekly Credit Update - Danske Bank9 January 2015 Weekly Credit Update Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 20 of this report. Analyst Ola Heldal +47 8 540

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SELL ATCOA2019 2.625% – BUY ATCOA2023 2.500% The Atlas Copco 2019’s trade too tight for the rating, in our view

• The Atlas Copco 2019s trade tighter than the average ‘A+’ rated

EUR corporate. We suggest going further out on the curve and buying the Atlas Copco 2023s to get more value out of a fairly tight name. Alternatively, investors can sell 5YR protection on Atlas Copco for an even greater pickup relative to the cash curve.

• Atlas Copco has best-in-class low operational leverage as witnessed by its very strong margin protection in 2009.

• Atlas Copco is exposed to oil and gas E&P capex spending. However, as its exposure is fairly well distributed over the entire oil and gas E&P value chain, downside to new orders in 2015 as a result of the lower oil price should be fairly limited, in our view.

• Having added substantial amounts of debt to its balance sheet with the acquisition of Edwards group in 2014, we view the risk of large-scale M&A as limited in Atlas Copco. Our base case is that Atlas Copco continues with smaller bolt-on acquisitions in the first half of 2015.

• The key risk to the case is, in our view, a further decline in demand from the mining segment in 2015.

Brian Børsting +45 45128503 [email protected]

Mads Rosendal +46 8 568 80594 [email protected]

ATCOA CDS EUR SR 5Y

ATCOA '23 (A/A2)

ATCOA '19 (A/A2)

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Indicative ASW offer

(bps)

EUR bonds - Investment Grade

Industrials: BBB+

Industrials: A+

Industrials: A

ATCOA '23 (A/A2)

ATCOA '19 (A/A2)

0,0

0,5

1,0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Indicative YTM offer (%)

EUR bonds - Investment Grade

Euro Swap yield

curve

A+/A/A-

* Benchmarked against a sample of highly liquid EUR corporate issues

(minimum size: EUR500m, TTM:1Y-10Y)

Source: Bloomberg (<SRCH>GO), Danske Bank Markets (both charts)

Page 6: Weekly Credit Update - Danske Bank9 January 2015 Weekly Credit Update Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 20 of this report. Analyst Ola Heldal +47 8 540

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Recent trade ideas

See the end of this presentation for a list of our coverage including shadow ratings and recommendations

Type Trade Idea

Opened 18 dec 2014

Start spread 807

Opened 18 dec 2014

Start spread 16

Opened 27 nov 2014

Start spread 72

Opened 25 nov 2014

Start spread 640

Opened 19 nov 2014

Start spread 450

Opened 18 nov 2014

Start spread 2

Opened 13 nov 2014

Start spread 115

Opened 24 okt 2014

Start spread 126

Outright SAABAB '19 Trading wider than the ‘BBB+’ shadow rating would imply

Curve spread Swith from STENA '19 to

STENA '20

Stena 2020 cheap compared with overall Stena credit curve and the Stena 2019 bond.

Curve spread Switch from SKFBSS '19 to

SKFBSS '18 or '20

SKF’s 2020s and 2018s offer attractive value relative to the rating (‘BBB+’ NO and ‘Baa1’ S) Downgrade seems priced in already

Outright VLVY' 17 or VLVY'19 We see the VLVY cash curve as attractively valued and an (uncertain) downgrade is more than priced in to spreads

Outright NYNAAB '18 NYNAAB '18's, which we see as 'B+' indicatively trade way too cheap relative to the industrial 'B+' curve

Outright COMHSS '19 COMHSS '19 looks cheap compared to other rated and unrated issues in SEK. Trades like a B+, but is officially rated BB-

Outright SASSS '17 We believe the SAS 2017 offers an attractive absolute value – supported by adequate liquidity

Curve spread Switch from ATCOA '19 to

ATCOA '23

The Atlas Copco 2019s trades tighter than the average ‘A+’ rated EUR corporate. Go out the curve and buy the '23s

Page 7: Weekly Credit Update - Danske Bank9 January 2015 Weekly Credit Update Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 20 of this report. Analyst Ola Heldal +47 8 540

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Company news from the past week

Name News Implication

Vestas

Vestas upgraded its free cash flow expecations to EUR850m for FY 2014 (earlier guidance EUR400-700m) mainly driven by better than improved working capital. We maintain our BBB- rating on the name. The upgrade should only moderately impact credit spreads due to the very short maturity of the outstanding March 2015 bond.

Credit positive

Tallink

On Monday the 5th of January Tallink reported passenger and freight numbers for Q4 2014 and

December 2014. During the quarter the overall number of passengers, passenger cars and cargo units

declined 4.5% y/y, 1.7% y/y and 1.2% y/y respectively. Some of the decline in the passenger numbers

may be explainable by scheduled maintenance of one of the ferries on the Finland-Sweden route, but

the company did not provide any details in this respect. We therefore cautiously note that the

declining passenger numbers are not encouraging. The release also showed relatively strong cargo

numbers on the important Estonia-Finland route (+8.2% y/y) and the Estonia-Sweden route (+8.2% y/y)

during Q4 14, although this development did not compensate for the declines in cargo experienced on

the Finland-Sweden (-8,9%y/y) and Latvia Sweden (-58,8% y/y) routes during the quarter. However, the

overall number of cargo units actually increased towards the end of the year witnessed by a 2.8% y/y

overall increase during December 2014 – again driven by the development on the Estonia-Finland

route. The company did not release any preliminary earnings or cash flow numbers, but the overall

passenger and cargo trends point to the risk of moderately declining cash flows for 2014 versus 2013,

despite an expected moderately positive effect from lower bunker fuel prices. In our view the overall

release should be viewed as slightly credit negative. We maintain our issuer shadow rating of ‘BB‘ and

issue rating of ‘BB-‘ on the TALLNK 18’s for the time being, but stresses that we could see moderately

wider spreads following the release.

Credit negative

Akelius Residential

We currently have Akelius Residential at BB+ with positive outlook, with its bonds one notch lower. The announced revised financial policy is very positive as it confirms the company's commitment to a strong balance sheet and solid liquidity position, bringing the financial risk profile of Akelius in line with the requirements for an investment-grade rating. We will publish a credit update on Akelius in conjunction with the release of Q4 earnings where we will also take the revised financial policy into consideration. Note that with a more conservative financial policy this could also impact our decision of notching / not notching down the company's senior unsecured bonds.

Credit positive

Page 8: Weekly Credit Update - Danske Bank9 January 2015 Weekly Credit Update Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 20 of this report. Analyst Ola Heldal +47 8 540

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Source: Danske Bank Markets

Selected new issues

• The new issue market was quiet at the beginning of the week but reopened on Wednesday. Selected new issues

Date Issuer Coupon CCY Volume Maturity S&P / Mdy / Fitch ASW/DM

07-01-2015 Abbey Natl Treasury Serv 1,125% EUR 1 500 m Jan-22 / A2e / Ae 6507-01-2015 Rabobank Nederland EUR003M +19bps EUR 2 500 m Jan-17 / Aa2e / AA-e 1908-01-2015 Bnp Paribas EUR003M +40bps EUR 750 m Jan-20 / A1e / A+e 4008-01-2015 Lloyds Bank Plc 1,25% EUR 1 000 m Jan-25 / / 5508-01-2015 Volkswagen Intl Fin Nv EUR003M +30bps EUR 1 000 m Jul-18 / A3e / 3008-01-2015 Volkswagen Intl Fin Nv 0,875% EUR 1 000 m Jan-23 / A3e / 4008-01-2015 Volkswagen Intl Fin Nv 1,625% EUR 1 000 m Jan-30 / A3e / 65

Page 9: Weekly Credit Update - Danske Bank9 January 2015 Weekly Credit Update Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 20 of this report. Analyst Ola Heldal +47 8 540

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Chart pack: euro spreads and returns Euro IG ASW, iBoxx indices

Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]

Euro HY ASW, Merrill Lynch indices

IG total return, iBoxx indices, 2014-01=100

HY total return, Merrill Lynch indices, 2014-01=100

Page 10: Weekly Credit Update - Danske Bank9 January 2015 Weekly Credit Update Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 20 of this report. Analyst Ola Heldal +47 8 540

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Chart pack: relative value iTraxx vs iBoxx

Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]

Euro vs US CDS indices - IG (Markit)

Nordic financial and non-financial corporates (IG) vs iTraxx

Euro vs US HY bond indices (Merrill Lynch)

Page 11: Weekly Credit Update - Danske Bank9 January 2015 Weekly Credit Update Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 20 of this report. Analyst Ola Heldal +47 8 540

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Chart pack: general market development European swap and government yields

Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]

Euro swap curve spread

3M TED-spread, US and euro area

Euro/USD basis swaps

Page 12: Weekly Credit Update - Danske Bank9 January 2015 Weekly Credit Update Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 20 of this report. Analyst Ola Heldal +47 8 540

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Chart pack: fund flows Europe, net sales

Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]

Sweden, net sales

US, net sales

Norway, net sales

Page 13: Weekly Credit Update - Danske Bank9 January 2015 Weekly Credit Update Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 20 of this report. Analyst Ola Heldal +47 8 540

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Chart pack: macro GDP y/y growth, calendar adjusted

Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]

Euro area y/y change in bank lending

Purchasing managers’ indices

Euro area lending standards

Page 14: Weekly Credit Update - Danske Bank9 January 2015 Weekly Credit Update Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 20 of this report. Analyst Ola Heldal +47 8 540

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Our coverage and shadow ratings 1 of 5

Analyst(s)

Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating OutlookAhlstrom Oyj B+ Stable Mads RosendalAkelius Residential Ab BB+ Pos BB Louis LandemanAmbu A/S BBB- Stable Jakob MagnussenAp Moeller - Maersk A/S BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable Brian Børsting BUYArla Foods Amba BBB+ Stable Mads RosendalAtlas Copco Ab A Stable A2 Stable Mads Rosendal SELLAvinor As AA- Stable A1 Stable Ola Heldal HOLDBank 1 Oslo Akershus As BBB+ Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmBank Norwegian As BBB Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmBeerenberg Holdco Ii As B+ Stable Øyvind MossigeBw Offshore BB+ Stable Øyvind MossigeCargotec Oyj BBB- Stable Mads RosendalCarlsberg Breweries A/S Baa2 Stable BBB Stable Brian Børsting SELLCermaq Asa BB Stable Knut-Ivar BakkenCitycon Oyj BBB Stable Baa2 Stable Louis LandemanColor Group As BB- Stable B+ Niklas RipaCom Hem Holding Ab BB- Stable Ola HeldalDanfoss A/S BBB Stable Jakob MagnussenDanske Bank A/S A Neg A3 Stable A StableDfds A/S BBB- Stable Niklas RipaDlg Finance As BB- Stable Mads RosendalDna Ltd BBB- Stable Ola HeldalDnb Bank Asa A+ Stable A1 Neg T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLDDong Energy A/S BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable BBB+ Stable Jakob Magnussen HOLDDsv A/S BBB Stable Brian BørstingEg Holding B Stable Jakob MagnussenEika Boligkreditt As A- Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmEika Gruppen As BBB Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmElectrolux Ab BBB Stable Wr WD Brian Børsting HOLDElenia Oy Jakob Magnussen BUYElisa Oyj BBB Pos Baa2 Stable Ola Heldal BUYEntra Eiendom As A- Stable Ola Heldal

Recomm.Danske Bank S&P Moody's Fitch

Page 15: Weekly Credit Update - Danske Bank9 January 2015 Weekly Credit Update Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 20 of this report. Analyst Ola Heldal +47 8 540

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Our coverage and shadow ratings 2 of 5

Analyst(s)

Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating OutlookFarstad Shipping Asa BB Neg BB- Øyvind MossigeFingrid Oyj A+ Stable A1 Stable A+ Stable Jakob Magnussen BUYFinnair Oyj BB Stable Brian BørstingFortum Oyj A- Neg A2 Neg A- Neg Jakob Magnussen SELLFortum Varme Holding Samagt Med Stockholms Stad Ab BBB+ Stable Jakob MagnussenFred Olsen Energy Asa BB+ Neg Sondre StormyrG4S Plc BBB- Stable Brian Børsting BUYGetinge Ab BB+ Neg Louis LandemanGolden Close Maritime Corp Ltd B Sondre StormyrHeimstaden Ab BB Stable BB- Louis LandemanHemso Fastighets Ab BBB+ Stable BBB Louis LandemanHkscan Oyj BB Stable Brian BørstingHoist Kredit Ab BB- Stable B+ Gabriel BerginHusqvarna Ab BBB- Pos Louis LandemanIkano Bank Ab BBB Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmInvestor Ab AA- Stable A1 Stable Brian Børsting BUYIss A/S BBB- Stable Brian Børsting HOLDJ Lauritzen A/S B Stable B- Bjørn Kristian RøedJernhusen Ab A- Stable Gabriel BerginJyske Bank A/S A- Stable Baa1 Neg Thomas M. Hovard BUYKesko Oyj BBB Stable Mads RosendalKlaveness Ship Holding As BB- Stable B+ Bjørn Kristian RøedLoomis Ab BBB- Stable Brian BørstingLuossavaara-Kiirunavaara Ab BBB+ Stable Louis LandemanMeda Ab BB- Stable Louis LandemanMetsa Board Oyj B+ Pos B1 Pos Mads RosendalMetso Oyj BBB Stable Baa2 Stable Mads Rosendal HOLDNcc Ab BBB- Stable Louis LandemanNeste Oil Oyj BBB- Stable Jakob Magnussen HOLDNokia Oyj BB Pos Ba2 Pos BB Stable Ola Heldal HOLDNokian Renkaat Oyj BBB+ Stable Jakob MagnussenNordea Bank Ab AA- Neg Aa3 Neg AA- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm SELL

Recomm.Danske Bank S&P Moody's Fitch

Page 16: Weekly Credit Update - Danske Bank9 January 2015 Weekly Credit Update Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 20 of this report. Analyst Ola Heldal +47 8 540

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Our coverage and shadow ratings 3 of 5

Analyst(s)

Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating OutlookNorwegian Air Shuttle Asa BB- Stable B+ Brian BørstingNorwegian Property Asa BBB- Stable Ola HeldalNykredit Bank A/S A+ Neg Baa2U Stable A Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLDNynas Group B+ Stable B+ Jakob MagnussenOdfjell Se B+ Stable B Bjørn Kristian RøedOlav Thon Eiendomsselskap Asa BBB+ Stable Ola HeldalOlympic Shipping As B+ Stable B Øyvind MossigeOrkla Asa BBB+ Pos Ola HeldalOutokumpu Oyj B Pos Mads RosendalPohjola Bank Oyj AA- Neg Aa3 Neg A+ Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm SELLPosten Norge As A- Stable Ola HeldalPostnord Ab BBB+ Stable Gabriel BerginProsafe Se BB Stable Sondre StormyrRamirent Oyj BB+ Stable Brian BørstingSaab Ab BBB+ Stable Wr Louis LandemanSampo Oyj Baa2 Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLDSandnes Sparebank BBB+ Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmSandvik Ab BBB Neg Mads Rosendal HOLDSas Ab B- Stable Wr Stable Brian BørstingSbab Bank Ab A Neg A2 Neg T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLDScania Ab A- Stable Mads Rosendal HOLDSchibsted Asa BBB Stable Ola HeldalSeadrill Ltd BB+ Stable BB Sondre StormyrSecuritas Ab BBB Stable Wr Brian Børsting HOLDSkandinaviska Enskilda Banken Ab A+ Neg A1 Neg A+ Pos T. Hovard / L. Holm BUYSkanska Ab BBB+ Stable Louis LandemanSkf Ab BBB+ Neg Baa1 Stable Mads Rosendal SELLSognekraft As BBB Stable BBB Jakob MagnussenSolstad Offshore Asa BB- Stable B+ Øyvind MossigeSpar Nord Bank A/S BBB+ Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmSparebank 1 Boligkreditt As A- Stable Lars HolmSparebank 1 Nord Norge A2 Neg A Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLD

Recomm.Danske Bank S&P Moody's Fitch

Page 17: Weekly Credit Update - Danske Bank9 January 2015 Weekly Credit Update Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 20 of this report. Analyst Ola Heldal +47 8 540

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Our coverage and shadow ratings 4 of 5

Analyst(s)

Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating OutlookSparebank 1 Smn A2 Neg A- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLDSparebank 1 Sr-Bank Asa A2 Neg A- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLDSponda Oyj BBB- Stable Louis LandemanSt1 Nordic Oy BB Stable Jakob MagnussenStatkraft Sf A- Stable Aaa Stable Jakob Magnussen BUYStatnett Sf A+ Stable Wr Stable Jakob Magnussen HOLDStatoil Asa AA- Stable Aa2 Stable Jakob Magnussen SELLSteen & Strom As BBB+ Stable Ola HeldalStena Ab BB Stable B2 Stable Niklas Ripa BUYStockmann Oyj Abp B+ Stable Mads RosendalStolt-Nielsen Ltd BB+ Stable BB Bjørn Kristian RøedStora Enso Oyj BB Stable Ba2 Stable WD Mads Rosendal HOLDStorebrand Bank Asa BBB+ Stable BBB+ Neg Baa2 Neg T. Hovard / L. HolmSuomen Hypoteekkiyhdistys A- Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmSwedavia Ab A- Stable Gabriel BerginSwedbank Ab A+ Neg A1 Neg A+ Pos T. Hovard / L. Holm BUYSwedish Match Ab BBB Stable Baa2 Stable Brian Børsting HOLDSvensk Fastighetsfinansiering Ab BBB Stable Louis LandemanSvenska Cellulosa Ab Sca A- Stable Baa1 Stable Mads Rosendal BUYSvenska Handelsbanken Ab AA- Neg Aa3 Neg AA- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLDSydbank A/S Baa1 Neg T. Hovard / L. Holm BUYTallink Group As BB Stable BB- Niklas RipaTdc A/S BBB Neg Baa3 Stable BBB Stable Ola Heldal HOLDTeekay Offshore Partners Lp BB- Stable B+ Bjørn Kristian RøedTele2 Ab BBB Stable Ola HeldalTelefonaktiebolaget Lm Ericsson BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable BBB+ Stable Ola Heldal HOLDTelenor Asa A Stable A3 Stable Ola Heldal HOLDTeliasonera Ab A- Stable A3 Neg A- Stable Ola Heldal SELLTeollisuuden Voima Oyj BBB Neg Wr BBB Stable Jakob Magnussen BUYThon Holding As BBB+ Stable Ola HeldalTine Sa BBB+ Stable Ola HeldalUpm-Kymmene Oyj BB+ Stable Ba1 Stable WD Mads Rosendal HOLD

Recomm.Danske Bank S&P Moody's Fitch

Page 18: Weekly Credit Update - Danske Bank9 January 2015 Weekly Credit Update Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 20 of this report. Analyst Ola Heldal +47 8 540

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Our coverage and shadow ratings 5 of 5

Source: Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets

Analyst(s)

Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating OutlookVasakronan Ab A- Stable Louis LandemanVattenfall Ab A- Stable A3 Stable A- Neg Jakob Magnussen HOLDVestas Wind Systems A/S BBB- Pos Niklas Ripa BUYVictoria Park Ab BB- Stable B+ Louis LandemanWilh Wilhelmsen Asa BBB- Stable Bjørn Kristian RøedVolvo Ab BBB Neg Baa2 Neg BBB Stable Mads Rosendal HOLD

Recomm.Danske Bank S&P Moody's Fitch

Page 19: Weekly Credit Update - Danske Bank9 January 2015 Weekly Credit Update Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 20 of this report. Analyst Ola Heldal +47 8 540

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Fixed Income Credit Research team Thomas Hovard, Chief Analyst Head of Credit Research +45 45 12 85 05 [email protected]

Louis Landeman, Analyst TMT, Industrials +46 8 568 80524 [email protected]

Mads Rosendal, Analyst Industrials, Pulp & Paper +46 8 568 80594 [email protected]

Jakob Magnussen, Senior Analyst Utilities, Energy +45 45 12 85 03 [email protected]

Knut-Ivar Bakken, Analyst Fish Farming +47 85 40 70 74 [email protected]

Brian Børsting, Senior Analyst Industrials +45 45 12 85 19 [email protected]

Lars Holm, Senior Analyst Financials +45 45 12 80 41 [email protected]

Gabriel Bergin, Analyst Strategy, Industrials +46 8 568 80602 [email protected]

Niklas Ripa, Senior Analyst High Yield, Industrials +45 45 12 80 47 [email protected]

Bjørn Kristian Røed, Analyst Shipping +47 85 40 70 72 [email protected]

Ola Heldal, Analyst TMT +47 85 40 84 33 [email protected]

Sondre Dale Stormyr, Analyst Offshore Rigs +47 85 40 70 70 [email protected]

Henrik René Andresen, Analyst Credit Portfolios +45 45 13 33 27 [email protected]

Øyvind Mossige, Senior Analyst Oil Services +47 85 40 54 91 [email protected]

Page 20: Weekly Credit Update - Danske Bank9 January 2015 Weekly Credit Update Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 20 of this report. Analyst Ola Heldal +47 8 540

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Disclosures

This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S (‘Danske Bank’).

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Each research analyst responsible for the content of this research report certifies that the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect the research analyst’s personal view about the financial instruments and issuers covered by the research report. Each responsible research analyst further certifies that no part of the compensation of the research analyst was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed in the research report.

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Page 21: Weekly Credit Update - Danske Bank9 January 2015 Weekly Credit Update Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 20 of this report. Analyst Ola Heldal +47 8 540

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General disclaimer This research has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets (a division of Danske Bank A/S). It is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute or form part of, and shall under no circumstances be considered as, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any relevant financial instruments (i.e. financial instruments mentioned herein or other financial instruments of any issuer mentioned herein and/or options, warrants, rights or other interests with respect to any such financial instruments) (‘Relevant Financial Instruments’).

The research report has been prepared independently and solely on the basis of publicly available information that Danske Bank considers to be reliable. While reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and Danske Bank, its affiliates and subsidiaries accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss, including without limitation any loss of profits, arising from reliance on this research report.

The opinions expressed herein are the opinions of the research analysts responsible for the research report and reflect their judgement as of the date hereof. These opinions are subject to change, and Danske Bank does not undertake to notify any recipient of this research report of any such change nor of any other changes related to the information provided in this research report.

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