Weekly Commodity Tips: Basic Tips About Commodity Market

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13 OCT 17 OCT 2014 W E E K L Y R E P O R T Blow by Blow On Bullions, Base metals, Energy… WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

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Transcript of Weekly Commodity Tips: Basic Tips About Commodity Market

  • 1. 13 OCT 17 OCT 2014 W E E K L Y R E P O R T Blow by Blow On Bullions, Base metals, Energy WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM
  • 2. MAJOR EVENTS Gold futures fell from a two-week high as signs of an improving U.S. economy boosted the dollar, cutting the metals appeal as an alternative investment. A separate report this week showed job openings in August at the highest in 13 years. Bullion still posted a weekly advance amid growth concerns in China and Europe. Gold fell 8.4 percent last quarter as signs of a quickening U.S. recovery helped push the dollar to its biggest gain in six years. The metal rallied the most in two months yesterday after Federal Reserve policy makers said a global economic slowdown poses potential risks to the U.S., sparking speculation that the central bank will keep interest rates lower for a longer period. Gold futures for December delivery fell 0.3 percent to settle at $1,221.70 an ounce at 1:51 p.m. on the Comex in New York. Prices reached $1,234 yesterday, the highest since Sept. 23, on the way to the first weekly gain since August. The commodity slid to $1,183.30 on Oct. 6, the lowest since Dec. 31. Money managers have cut their net-long position, or bets on higher prices, to the lowest this year, U.S. government data show. Holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded products are at a five-year low. Silver futures for December delivery lost 0.7 percent to $17.303 an ounce on the Comex. The metal capped its first weekly gain in six weeks. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, platinum futures for delivery in January declined 1.3 percent to $1,261.60 an ounce, snapping four straight gains. Palladium futures for December delivery fell 1.9 percent to $785.05 an ounce, the first decline this week. West Texas Intermediate crude pared the biggest weekly drop since January amid signs of a global glut. Brent, the benchmark for more than half the worlds oil, gained after reaching a four-year low in intraday trading. WTI closed yesterday more than 20 percent below its June peak, a common definition of a bear market. Brent is down 22 percent from the June high. Both crudes settled higher for the first time in four days after falling more than 2 percent during trading today. The worlds two most-traded crude futures are collapsing because demand growth is slowing at a time when output is expanding from countries including the U.S. and Russia, the largest suppliers outside OPEC. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries increased oil production by the most in almost three years last month as Libyan output surged. The fundamentals are weak but dont justify this. Its concern about OPEC thats got the market rattled.WTI for November delivery rose 5 cents to settle at $85.82 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures fell 4.4 percent this week after dropping 4.1 percent last week. The contract touched $83.59 today, the lowest intraday price since July 3, 2012. WTI, Brent Post Weekly Declines as Global Supplies Rise. Copper Falls to One-Week Low as Economies Signal Sagging Demand. Copper fell to a one-week low in London as economic signals in Europe and China indicated metal demand will ebb. There are signs the euro areas recovery is losing momentum, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said yesterday. In August, exports from Germany slumped the most since 2009, data showed yesterday. Chinas main government-backed research group forecast a 7 percent expansion next year, down from a projected 7.3 percent growth in 2014. Ongoing concerns about the global economic outlook are going to be a drag on the industrial metals like copper. Copper for delivery in three months declined 0.9 percent to settle at $6,645 a metric ton ($3.01 a pound) on the London Metal Exchange. Earlier, the price touched $6,613, the lowest since Oct. 2. The metal capped its first weekly gain since Aug. 22 after Federal Reserve policy makers said that U.S. growth might be slower than they expected if foreign economic growth came in weaker than anticipated, stoking speculation that the central bank wont raise interest rates anytime soon. China is the worlds largest consumer, followed by the U.S. and Germany, which has largest economy in the euro area. Aluminum, nickel, zinc and lead fell in London, while tin was unchanged. Gold Declines From Two-Week High as Dollar Advances.
  • 3. E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS Oct 13 All Day Bank Holiday Oct 14 5:00pm NFIB Small Business Index 97.2 96.1 Oct 15 6:00pm Core Retail Sales m/m 0.2% 0.3% 6:00pm PPI m/m 0.1% 0.0% 6:00pm Retail Sales m/m -0.1% 0.6% 6:00pm Core PPI m/m 0.1% 0.1% 6:00pm Empire State Manufacturing Index 20.3 27.5 7:30pm Business Inventories m/m 0.4% 0.4% 11:30pm Beige Book Oct 16 5:30pm FOMC Member Plosser Speaks 6:00pm Unemployment Claims 286K 287K 6:45pm Capacity Utilization Rate 79.0% 78.8% 6:45pm Industrial Production m/m 0.4% -0.1% 7:30pm Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 19.9 22.5 7:30pm FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks 7:30pm NAHB Housing Market Index 59 59 8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 8:30pm Crude Oil Inventories Oct 17 1:30am TIC Long-Term Purchases 23.3B -18.6B 6:00pm Building Permits 1.04M 1.00M 6:00pm Fed Chair Yellen Speaks 6:00pm Housing Starts 1.02M 0.96M 7:25pm Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 84.3 84.6 7:25pm Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 3.0%
  • 4. S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 26470 26000 25485 27220 27650 28085 S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 37940 37000 36000 39400 40500 41550 T E C H N I C A L V I E W MCX GOLD showed correction in whole week but not able to maintains above 27100 and closed below the resistance level of 23.6% retracement. Now, if it able to sustain below 26500 then next vital support is seen near psychological level of 26000. Contrary if it maintains above 27100 then breakout of downward channel pattern is expected and may find next resistance around 27500. S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy above 27250 for the targets of 27750 with stop loss of 26700. PIVOT TABLE G O L D PIVOT TABLE S I L V E R T E C H N I C A L V I E W MCX SILVER on daily charts showed sideways movement and traded below to its important support level i.e. 38500. Now, if it sustain below 38000 then next support is seen in the range of 37000-36000. On higher side 39500 is act as important resistance level for it above which it may test the psychological level of 40000. S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this point of time is to sell below 37900 targets of 36000, with stop loss of 39500.
  • 5. C R U D E O I L C O P P E R S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 5130 4960 4775 5355 5530 5715 S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 410 404.20 399.65 417 422.30 428 T E C H N I C A L V I E W MCX Copper last week showed sideways to bearish movement, closed below 50% retracement level i.e. 417 but not able to sustain below 61.8% retracement. Now, if it breaks the support level of 408 then next support level is seen around 400. On higher side if it maintains above 417 then next resistance is seen in the range of 422-425. S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to sell on highs for the targets of 5000, with stop loss of 5550. PIVOT TABLE T E C H N I C A L V I E W MCX Crude oil last week showed free fall after giving breakout of its important support level i.e. 5525 and found support around 5100. Now, if it sustain in the range of 5200-5100 in upcoming sessions then it may test the next psychological support level of 5000. On other hand some correction may take it towards the resistance level of 5500. S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell below 411, with stop loss of 423 for the targets of 405-400. PIVOT TABLE