19 OCT 23 OCT 2015

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W E E K L Y

R

E

P

O

R

T

Blow by Blow

On

Bullions,

Base metals,

Energy

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MAJOR EVENTS Gold eased amid profit selling today after massive gains earlier this week. However,

the overall movement remained sideways ahead of weekend. The global stocks edged

higher as expectations build that the Federal Reserve will delay raising interest rates

soon and traders eyed the earnings data. Gold witnessed massive buying this week

after a clear break above 100 day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, the

metal dropped amid a sustained pick up in global equities and buying also waned once

$1200 per ounce mark neared for the benchmark COMEX Gold futures. The

commodity is currently trading at $1183per ounce, down 0.38% on the day. MCX Gold

futures currently trade at Rs 27173 per 10grams, down 0.31% on the day. Global

equities stayed well supported today amid strong overnight cues. DOW surged sharply

yesterday after US consumer price index dropped in September for the second month

in a row. The CPI declined by a seasonally adjusted 0.2% last month. Gasoline prices

slumped 9%, the Labor Department said. Food prices rose 0.4%, however. Excluding

food and energy, so-called core consumer prices increased 0.2% in September. Over

the past 12months the main CPI has shown zero increase in unadjusted terms. Core

prices are up 1.9%in the same span.

MCX Crude oil futures recovered well above Rs 3000 per barrel after the recent break

higher in the global prices. Sustained buying in global equities following hopes of a

delayed Fed interest rate hike amid tepid economic data pushed the DOW by more

than 200points yesterday. This capped oil around two week low and the counter

edged up in Asia today. WTI Crude oil futures are trading at $47.01 per barrel, up

1.36% on the day. MCX Crude oil futures ended just under Rs 3000 per barrel

yesterday and should spurt in the early moves today. The US Energy Information

Administration said in its weekly report that crude oil inventories rose by 7.6 million

barrels in the week ended October 9. Total US crude oil inventories stood at 468.6

million barrels as of last week, remaining near levels not seen for this time of year in

at least the last 80 years. The report also showed that gasoline inventories decreased

by 2.6 million barrels, compared to expectations for a decline of1.7 million barrels.

Non-OPEC accounted for just under 40% of the 1.8 mb/d annual increase in total oil

output. Lower oil prices and steep spending curbs are expected to cut non-OPEC

output by nearly 0.5 mb/d in 2016.

WTI Futures Off

Two Week Low.

China Imports

Create Opportunity

For Copper.

Opportunities in Copper prices have been created as Copper imports into China spiked

this time round in September 2015. The prices of major metals have taken a bashing

and Copper was no exception. However after imports recovering again there are

chances that the day traders and speculators will look to wind up their short positions

in coming days. Indian Copper was trading at Rs 349.30 per kg, down 0.13% but just a

shy away from Rs 350. Closing above Rs 350 can bring wonders to Copper prices. The

spike can then continue towards Rs 360 per kg. China is responsible for more than 45%

of global copper demand and the Chinese imports of refined and semi-finished copper

products surged by more than 30% in September compared to the previous month

and 18% in the same month last year. The trade data from China National Bureau of

Statistics showed that at 460,000 tons it was the highest monthly shipment total since

January 2014 and the first rise since June last year. Year to date imports are still

lagging last year's however, falling 5.5% to 3.4 million tons. September imports of

Copper concentrate fell 6.2% in September compared to the same month last year,

but the disappointing figure follows a nearly 20% year on year jump in August. Year to

date concentrate imports are up 9.3% to 9.33 million tons. China's unwrought copper

and copper-fabricated product imports in September rose more than 31% .

Gold Sideways

Ahead Of

Weekends.

E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R

DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS

Oct 19 7:30pm FOMC Member Brainard Speaks

7:30pm NAHB Housing Market Index 62 62

9:30pm FOMC Member Lacker Speaks

Oct 20 6:00pm Building Permits 1.16M 1.17M

6:00pm Housing Starts 1.14M 1.13M

6:30pm FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

6:45pm FOMC Member Powell Speaks

8:30pm Fed Chair Yellen Speaks

Oct 21 8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories 7.6M

Oct 22 6:00pm Unemployment Claims 266K 255K

6:30pm HPI m/m 0.4% 0.6%

7:30pm Existing Home Sales 5.38M 5.31M

7:30pm CB Leading Index m/m 0.0% 0.1%

8:00pm Natural Gas Storage

Oct 23 7:15pm Flash Manufacturing PMI 53.0 53.1

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

26780 26335 25850 27370 27840 28275

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

36785 36000 35160 37720 38550 39540

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX GOLD showed bullish movement

and found the resistance of trendline

at 27400, but due to dollar weakness

strength is not seen on higher side as

like Comex. Now, if it is able to

maintain above 27500 then next major

resistance level is seen around 28000.

On lower side if it sustains below

26950 then next support level is seen

around 26350.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell

below 26750 for the target of 26150,

with stop loss of 27500.

PIVOT TABLE

G O L D

PIVOT TABLE

S I L V E R

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX SILVER last week showed

sideways movement and consolidated

in between of 61.80% and 50.00%

retracement levels. Now, on higher

side if it maintains above 37800 then

only it may show some bullish

movements towards the resistance

level of 39000. On lower side sustain

below 36500 next support level is seen

around trendline i.e. 35750.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this

point of time is to buy above 38000 for

the targets of 39000-40000, with stop

loss of 36500.

C R U D E O I L

C O P P E R

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

2900 2785 2625 3160 3305 3430

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

340.85 334.00 326.00 352.10 360.00 368.00

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Copper last week showed

consolidated movement and found

support around trendline at 344 and

closed below 23.6% retracement level

i.e. 346.55. Now, if it maintains above

352.10 on higher side then next

important resistance level is seen

around 362.70. On the other hand if it

sustain below 344 then next support

will seen around 336.85.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to

sell below 2900 for the target of 2750,

with stop loss of 3100.

PIVOT TABLE

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Crude oil showed bearish

movement after giving falls breakout

of trendline and follows its major

downward trend and found support of

2900. Now, if it sustain below 2900 in

coming sessions then next important

support level is seen around 2750. On

the other hand maintaining above

3160 again pull it towards the

resistance level of 3260.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell

below 344, with stop loss of 356 for the

target of 335.

PIVOT TABLE

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