21 OCT – 25 OCT 2013

W E E K L Y

R

E

P

O

R

T

Blow by Blow

On

Bullions,

Base metals,

Energy…

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MAJOR EVENTS US Gold futures fell close to $6 an ounce on Friday trading on profit booking as prices

zoomed on Thursday following the temporary deal to end budget impasse on

Wednesday. Gold prices gained 3% on Thursday after the dollar dropped to eight-

month lows and a Chinese rating agency downgraded the US sovereign rating.

Inflationary pressures in the economy are likely to continue due to lower interest

rates and US stimulus package still in place. Gold fell about 4 percent during the U.S.

government shutdown, but jumped 3 percent on Thursday after the dollar dropped to

eight-month lows and a Chinese rating agency downgraded the U.S. sovereign rating.

A CME Group report said that a fresh multi month downside breakout in the Dollar

provided some added lift to the gold market on Thursday as the decline in the

Greenback might be expected to continue well into the future off the concept that the

US is poised to see deterioration in its interest rate differential with many other

currencies. With the added benefit of soaring equities and sharply lower energy

prices, the outlook for the economy at the end of October is likely to be vastly

improved relative to the beginning of October and that might provide the gold market

with some fresh classic/physically related buying interest.

Bears are holding the upper hand in crude oil market even as a stronger growth in

China has failed to create bullish sentiments as in metals. WTI Crude Oil November

futures at New York Mercantile Exchange fell to $100.61 a barrel and is down 1.3

percent this week following the US debt ceiling agreement and fall in US dollar index.

American Petroleum Institute has reported a surge in US crude oil inventories

pushing prices further into the bearish zone.

WTI is above the middle Bollinger band at about $100.31 a barrel. Buy orders tend to

be clustered close to chart-support levels, Bloomberg reported. Brent for December

settlement advanced as much as 0.38 percent, to $109.52 a barrel on the London-

based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude was at a

premium of $8.91 to WTI for the same month. The spread narrowed for a second day

yesterday to $8.24.

Crude Oil prices edged up this morning on positive Chinese economic data, and MCX

November contract currently trading at 6224, up by 0.68 percent.

Bears monopolise

Crude Oil, short

MCX Crude Oct,

Nov.

India Copper

futures to be

bullish on China

GDP growth, US

budget deal.

Tracking positive trends in London Metal Exchange and upbeat China GDP growth data

for the third quarter of 2013.

China's GDP growth has risen to 7.8% in third quarter compared to 7.5% in the first

quarter. Industial output growth had moderated to 10.2% in September compared to

10.4% in August.

The uptick in growth refelcts both better exports and solid domestic demand,

although the easing of industrial output in September indicates that the recovery is

tepid. Copper for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange increased

0.2 percent to $7,247.25 a metric ton at 9:23 a.m. in Shanghai. The metal gained 0.6

percent this week.

MCX Copper futures for November delivery was seen trading up by 0.99%. at Rs.

452.05 per kilogram at 15.20 hrs IST on Friday. LME Copper for delivery in three

months was seen trading up by 0.54% at $7272 a metric ton as of 1:10 PM IST on

Friday.

US Gold falls on

profit booking,

Fed tapering

delay support.

E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R

DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS

Oct 21, 5:30pm FOMC Member Evans Speaks

7:30pm Existing Home Sales 5.31M 5.48M

8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories 3.4M 6.8M

Oct 22, 6:00pm Non-Farm Employment Change 179K 169K

6:00pm Unemployment Rate 7.3% 7.3%

6:00pm Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2% 0.2%

7:30pm Richmond Manufacturing Index 0 0

8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 85B 90B

Oct 23, 6:00pm Import Prices m/m 0.3% 0.0%

6:30pm HPI m/m 0.8% 1.0%

8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories

Oct 24, 6:00pm Unemployment Claims 341K 358K

6:30pm Flash Manufacturing PMI 52.8 52.8

7:30pm New Home Sales 427K 421K

7:30pm JOLTS Job Openings 3.77M 3.69M

8:00pm Natural Gas Storage

Oct 25, 6:00pm Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.6% -0.1%

6:00pm Durable Goods Orders m/m 1.7% 0.1%

7:25pm Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 75.3 75.2

7:25pm Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 2.9%

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

28740 27875 27000 30000 30850 32000

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

46700 44925 42820 49250 51800 54000

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX GOLD on its daily charts unable to

sustain on lower level and showed

some correction towards the 50%

retracement level. Now, if it sustains

below the psychological level of 30000

then 28740 will act as major support.

On other hand if it maintain above

30000 then trend reversal can be seen

till the resistance level of 38.2%

retracement i.e. 31160.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy

above 30000 for the target of 31150

with stop loss of 28700.

PIVOT TABLE

G O L D

PIVOT TABLE

S I L V E R

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX SILVER last week gave false

breakout of strong support level of

46700 and found support around lower

band of channel pattern and bounced

back to upper band. Now, if it sustain

above 50% retracement then breakout

of channel pattern on upper side will

expected where it may find stiff

resistance around 51750. Major support

from current levels still maintain at

46700.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this

point of time is to buy above 49300 for

target of 51500, with stop loss of 46500.

C R U D E O I L

C O P P E R

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

6060 5855 5650 6370 6600 6825

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

444.50 432 420 460 472.10 482.30

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Copper on daily charts has been

moving in downward channel pattern

and reversed from the upper band last

week. In support of strength in Rupee,

it breached the 61.8% retracement

level of 447 and closed around it.

Strong support is seen near trend line

i.e. around 440 below which bear

trend will continue. Closing above 460

and holding above it will indicate

breakout of downward channel

pattern.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to sell

below 6100 for the target of 5900 with stop

loss of 6370.

PIVOT TABLE

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

Crude oil last week showed sideways

to bearish movements and closed

below 50% retracement and also

moved in channel pattern on daily

charts. Now, if it sustains below 6120

then it may test the psychological level

of 6000. On higher side 6370 will act as

important resistance above which

break out of channel pattern on higher

side is exepected.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell

below 444, with stop loss of 460 for the

target of 432.

PIVOT TABLE

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