WEEKLY COMMODITY TECHNICAL REPORT 02 DEC TO 06 DEC BY TRIFID RESEARCH
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Transcript of WEEKLY COMMODITY TECHNICAL REPORT 02 DEC TO 06 DEC BY TRIFID RESEARCH
02 DEC – 06 DEC 2013
W E E K L Y
R
E
P
O
R
T
Blow by Blow
On
Bullions,
Base metals,
Energy…
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MAJOR EVENTS China continues to be the largest consumer of largest varieties of commodities
produced in the world; and as 2013 draws to a close, the dragon country is going to be
the top global consumer of the hottest and most valuable commodity: gold. Latest
data from the World Gold Council says that China is set to beat India as the biggest
consumer of gold as the Chinese demand for gold in 2013 is forecast to be a whopping
1,000 tonnes. For several decades, India used to be the world’s largest gold consumer
with Indians buying anything between 600 to 800 tonnes of the bullion metal every
year. Indians continue to buy gold despite the economic recession that is prevalent in
the country; but the Chinese buying spree seems to be fast overtaking India.
According to the Gold Council data, China's demand for jewellery, bars and coins rose
30 per cent to 996.3 tonnes in the year to September. But in India, the largest gold
consumer so far, gold consumption increased only by 24 per cent to touch 977 tonnes
.The report says that Mainland Chinese themselves bought 147.9 tonnes of gold in
October month, including scrap gold, compared with 116.3 tonnes in September. The
gold consumption was three times higher than the 47.5 tonnes last year. In October,
China imported a whopping 131 tonnes of gold from Hong Kong alone.
US crude oil edged down for a fourth day on Wednesday after US crude oil
inventories rose for a ninth week. Tracking a sideways trend on NYMEX crude oil
futures. Meanwhile, India crude oil futures recorded a decline on fresh selling
pressured by appreciation of Indian Rupee (INR) against US Dollar (USD).
Crude oil futures for December delivery on India's Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX)
was seen trading with loss of 0.80% at Rs.5849 per barrel as of 15.08 IST on
Wednesday.
US crude oil inventories rose by 6.92 mn barrels last week, according to the weekly
data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Thursday.
US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly crude
oil and natural gas stock-piles data at 21.00 and 22.30 IST on Wednesday. Analysts
expect a rise in crude oil inventories which is a bearish factor for the commodity
prices in the global market.
MCX Crude Oil
declines on fresh
selling, EIA data
may put further
pressure.
China Copper
market buoyant,
boosted by scrap
substitution.
China copper market remains buoyant due to a combination of scrap shortage and
stock building. China copper demand appears very positive in 2013 and more traders
want to book higher contract tonnages in 2014 thanks to increased import financing.
Refined copper production is also expected to show strong growth.
China stock build up is also a driver of copper demand. Estimates range from 100-300
kt. We believe the build has occurred in both unreported stocks held by traders and a
one-off working inventory pipeline fill. Substitution out of scrap and into cathode has
had a bigger impact on demand than we had previously factored in. Scrap supply has
been very tight this year, especially in China where imports have shrunk 10% y/y YTD.
Subsequently semis producers have been using more cathodes and less scrap in their
raw material mix.
There has been resurgence in copper import financing driven by tighter monetary
conditions. Financing costs are now the most attractive since the beginning of 2012.
Recently, banks have also begun to allow entrecote financing again, which could lead
to builds in bonded stocks into the year-end. Bonded stocks have risen from a low of
425Kt in July to 500-550Kt currently.
Gold: China
emerges as top
global consumer.
E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R
DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS
Dec 02 7:00pm Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
7:30pm Final Manufacturing PMI 54.3 54.3
Sep Data Construction Spending m/m 0.5% 0.6%
8:30pm ISM Manufacturing PMI 55.2 56.4
8:30pm Construction Spending m/m 0.4%
8:30pm ISM Manufacturing Prices 55.0 55.5
Dec 03 8:30pm IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 43.2 41.4
All Day Total Vehicle Sales 15.8M 15.2M
Dec 04 All Day OPEC Meetings
6:45pm ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 174K 130K
7:00pm Trade Balance -40.3B -41.8B
8:30pm ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 55.4 55.4
8:30pm New Home Sales 432K
Sep Data New Home Sales 427K 421K
9:00pm Crude Oil Inventories 3.0M
Dec 5 12:30am Beige Book
6:00pm Challenger Job Cuts y/y -4.2%
7:00pm Prelim GDP q/q 3.1% 2.8%
7:00pm Unemployment Claims 322K 316K
7:00pm Prelim GDP Price Index q/q 1.9% 1.9%
8:30pm Factory Orders m/m -0.7% 1.7%
9:00pm Natural Gas Storage -13B
Dec 6 7:00pm Non-Farm Employment Change 184K 204K
7:00pm Unemployment Rate 7.2% 7.3%
7:00pm Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2% 0.1%
7:00pm Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% 0.1%
7:00pm Personal Spending m/m 0.4% 0.2%
7:00pm Personal Income m/m 0.3% 0.5%
8:25pm Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 76.2 75.1
8:25pm Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 2.9%
Dec 7 1:30am FOMC Member Evans Speaks
1:30am Consumer Credit m/m 14.6B 13.7B
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
28950 28480 28000 29605 30000 30680
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
45200 43750 42300 46755 48050 49500
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX GOLD on its daily charts showed
sideways to bearish movement due to
comex weakness and closed around
the upper band of triangle pattern. If it
able to break 29650 then breakout of
triangle pattern on higher side is
expected and it may find resistance
around 30000-30700. On other hand if
it maintains on lower level then 28950
will act as major support.
S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy
above 29650 for the target of 30650
with stop loss of 28900.
PIVOT TABLE
G O L D
PIVOT TABLE
S I L V E R
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX SILVER last week showed bearish
movement, took reversal from lower
band of falling wedge pattern. Now, if
this bear trend continues and sustain
below 45000 then it may find next
support around 43500. On higher side
upper band of falling wedge pattern will
act as resistance for it and 47500 is
major resistance above which breakout
on higher side is expected.
S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to buy above 47500 for
targets of 49150-50000, with stop loss of
45000.
C R U D E O I L
C O P P E R
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
5750 5570 5380 5975 6225 6470
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
447.20 440.25 432.90 457.05 464 471
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Copper moved in downward
channel pattern found support near
lower band and traded in between
457-447. Now, if it sustain above 457
then it may find resistance around
upper band i.e. 463 closing above it
indicates breakout of channel pattern
and will find strong resistance around
471. Below 447 again it may drag
towards lower band around 434.
S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to sell
below 5750 for the target of 5570 with stop
loss of 6000.
PIVOT TABLE
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
Crude oil on its daily chart showed
sideways movement from past five
consecutive weeks and range bound
movement in between 6110-5750.
Now, if it is able to sustain below 5750
then next support level is seen around
5570. On higher side 6110 will act as
important resistance, only above which
bulls can become active.
S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to buy
above 457, with stop loss of 445 for the
targets of 465-470.
PIVOT TABLE
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