WEEKLY COMMODITY TECHNICAL REPORT 02 DEC TO 06 DEC BY TRIFID RESEARCH

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  • WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM W R E E E K L Y P O Blow by Blow On R Bullions, T Base metals, 02 DEC 06 DEC 2013 Energy
  • MAJOR EVENTS China continues to be the largest consumer of largest varieties of commodities produced in the world; and as 2013 draws to a close, the dragon country is going to be the top global consumer of the hottest and most valuable commodity: gold. Latest data from the World Gold Council says that China is set to beat India as the biggest consumer of gold as the Chinese demand for gold in 2013 is forecast to be a whopping 1,000 tonnes. For several decades, India used to be the worlds largest gold consumer with Indians buying anything between 600 to 800 tonnes of the bullion metal every year. Indians continue to buy gold despite the economic recession that is prevalent in the country; but the Chinese buying spree seems to be fast overtaking India. According to the Gold Council data, China's demand for jewellery, bars and coins rose 30 per cent to 996.3 tonnes in the year to September. But in India, the largest gold consumer so far, gold consumption increased only by 24 per cent to touch 977 tonnes .The report says that Mainland Chinese themselves bought 147.9 tonnes of gold in October month, including scrap gold, compared with 116.3 tonnes in September. The gold consumption was three times higher than the 47.5 tonnes last year. In October, China imported a whopping 131 tonnes of gold from Hong Kong alone. US crude oil edged down for a fourth day on Wednesday after US crude oil inventories rose for a ninth week. Tracking a sideways trend on NYMEX crude oil futures. Meanwhile, India crude oil futures recorded a decline on fresh selling pressured by appreciation of Indian Rupee (INR) against US Dollar (USD). Crude oil futures for December delivery on India's Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) was seen trading with loss of 0.80% at Rs.5849 per barrel as of 15.08 IST on Wednesday. US crude oil inventories rose by 6.92 mn barrels last week, according to the weekly data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Thursday. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly crude oil and natural gas stock-piles data at 21.00 and 22.30 IST on Wednesday. Analysts expect a rise in crude oil inventories which is a bearish factor for the commodity prices in the global market. China copper market remains buoyant due to a combination of scrap shortage and stock building. China copper demand appears very positive in 2013 and more traders want to book higher contract tonnages in 2014 thanks to increased import financing. Refined copper production is also expected to show strong growth. China stock build up is also a driver of copper demand. Estimates range from 100-300 kt. We believe the build has occurred in both unreported stocks held by traders and a one-off working inventory pipeline fill. Substitution out of scrap and into cathode has had a bigger impact on demand than we had previously factored in. Scrap supply has been very tight this year, especially in China where imports have shrunk 10% y/y YTD. Subsequently semis producers have been using more cathodes and less scrap in their raw material mix. There has been resurgence in copper import financing driven by tighter monetary conditions. Financing costs are now the most attractive since the beginning of 2012. Recently, banks have also begun to allow entrecote financing again, which could lead to builds in bonded stocks into the year-end. Bonded stocks have risen from a low of 425Kt in July to 500-550Kt currently. Gold: China emerges as top global consumer. MCX Crude Oil declines on fresh selling, EIA data may put further pressure. China Copper market buoyant, boosted by scrap substitution.
  • ECONOMIC CALENDER DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS Dec 02 7:00pm Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks 7:30pm Final Manufacturing PMI 54.3 54.3 Sep Data Construction Spending m/m 0.5% 0.6% 8:30pm ISM Manufacturing PMI 55.2 56.4 8:30pm Construction Spending m/m 0.4% 8:30pm ISM Manufacturing Prices 55.0 55.5 Dec 03 8:30pm IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 43.2 41.4 All Day Total Vehicle Sales 15.8M 15.2M Dec 04 All Day OPEC Meetings 6:45pm ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 174K 130K 7:00pm Trade Balance -40.3B -41.8B ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 55.4 55.4 New Home Sales 432K New Home Sales 427K 8:30pm 8:30pm Sep Data 9:00pm Dec 5 12:30am 6:00pm 7:00pm 7:00pm 7:00pm 8:30pm 9:00pm Dec 6 7:00pm Crude Oil Inventories 421K 3.0M Beige Book Challenger Job Cuts y/y -4.2% Prelim GDP q/q 3.1% 2.8% Unemployment Claims 322K 316K Prelim GDP Price Index q/q 1.9% 1.9% Factory Orders m/m -0.7% 1.7% Natural Gas Storage -13B Non-Farm Employment Change 184K 204K Unemployment Rate 7.2% 7.3% Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2% 0.1% 7:00pm Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% 0.1% 7:00pm Personal Spending m/m 0.4% 0.2% 7:00pm Personal Income m/m 0.3% 0.5% 8:25pm Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 76.2 75.1 8:25pm Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 7:00pm 7:00pm Dec 7 1:30am 1:30am 2.9% FOMC Member Evans Speaks Consumer Credit m/m 14.6B 13.7B
  • GOLD TECHNICAL VIEW MCX GOLD on its daily charts showed sideways to bearish movement due to comex weakness and closed around the upper band of triangle pattern. If it able to break 29650 then breakout of triangle pattern on higher side is expected and it may find resistance around 30000-30700. On other hand if it maintains on lower level then 28950 will act as major support. PIVOT TABLE STRATEGY Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy above 29650 for the target of 30650 with stop loss of 28900. S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 28950 28480 28000 29605 30000 30680 SILVER TECHNICAL VIEW MCX SILVER last week showed bearish movement, took reversal from lower band of falling wedge pattern. Now, if this bear trend continues and sustain below 45000 then it may find next support around 43500. On higher side upper band of falling wedge pattern will act as resistance for it and 47500 is major resistance above which breakout on higher side is expected. PIVOT TABLE STRATEGY Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this point of time is to buy above 47500 for targets of 49150-50000, with stop loss of 45000. S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 45200 43750 42300 46755 48050 49500
  • CRUDEOIL TECHNICAL VIEW Crude oil on its daily chart showed sideways movement from past five consecutive weeks and range bound movement in between 6110-5750. Now, if it is able to sustain below 5750 then next support level is seen around 5570. On higher side 6110 will act as important resistance, only above which bulls can become active. STRATEGY Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to sell below 5750 for the target of 5570 with stop loss of 6000. PIVOT TABLE S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 5750 5570 5380 5975 6225 6470 COPPER TECHNICAL VIEW MCX Copper moved in downward channel pattern found support near lower band and traded in between 457-447. Now, if it sustain above 457 then it may find resistance around upper band i.e. 463 closing above it indicates breakout of channel pattern and will find strong resistance around 471. Below 447 again it may drag towards lower band around 434. PIVOT TABLE STRATEGY Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to buy above 457, with stop loss of 445 for the targets of 465-470. S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 447.20 440.25 432.90 457.05 464 471
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