WEEKLY COMMODITY TECHNICAL REPORT 02 DEC TO 06 DEC BY TRIFID RESEARCH

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02 DEC 06 DEC 2013 W E E K L Y R E P O R T Blow by Blow On Bullions, Base metals, Energy… WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

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Transcript of WEEKLY COMMODITY TECHNICAL REPORT 02 DEC TO 06 DEC BY TRIFID RESEARCH

Page 1: WEEKLY COMMODITY TECHNICAL REPORT 02 DEC TO 06 DEC BY TRIFID RESEARCH

02 DEC – 06 DEC 2013

W E E K L Y

R

E

P

O

R

T

Blow by Blow

On

Bullions,

Base metals,

Energy…

WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

Page 2: WEEKLY COMMODITY TECHNICAL REPORT 02 DEC TO 06 DEC BY TRIFID RESEARCH

MAJOR EVENTS China continues to be the largest consumer of largest varieties of commodities

produced in the world; and as 2013 draws to a close, the dragon country is going to be

the top global consumer of the hottest and most valuable commodity: gold. Latest

data from the World Gold Council says that China is set to beat India as the biggest

consumer of gold as the Chinese demand for gold in 2013 is forecast to be a whopping

1,000 tonnes. For several decades, India used to be the world’s largest gold consumer

with Indians buying anything between 600 to 800 tonnes of the bullion metal every

year. Indians continue to buy gold despite the economic recession that is prevalent in

the country; but the Chinese buying spree seems to be fast overtaking India.

According to the Gold Council data, China's demand for jewellery, bars and coins rose

30 per cent to 996.3 tonnes in the year to September. But in India, the largest gold

consumer so far, gold consumption increased only by 24 per cent to touch 977 tonnes

.The report says that Mainland Chinese themselves bought 147.9 tonnes of gold in

October month, including scrap gold, compared with 116.3 tonnes in September. The

gold consumption was three times higher than the 47.5 tonnes last year. In October,

China imported a whopping 131 tonnes of gold from Hong Kong alone.

US crude oil edged down for a fourth day on Wednesday after US crude oil

inventories rose for a ninth week. Tracking a sideways trend on NYMEX crude oil

futures. Meanwhile, India crude oil futures recorded a decline on fresh selling

pressured by appreciation of Indian Rupee (INR) against US Dollar (USD).

Crude oil futures for December delivery on India's Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX)

was seen trading with loss of 0.80% at Rs.5849 per barrel as of 15.08 IST on

Wednesday.

US crude oil inventories rose by 6.92 mn barrels last week, according to the weekly

data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Thursday.

US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly crude

oil and natural gas stock-piles data at 21.00 and 22.30 IST on Wednesday. Analysts

expect a rise in crude oil inventories which is a bearish factor for the commodity

prices in the global market.

MCX Crude Oil

declines on fresh

selling, EIA data

may put further

pressure.

China Copper

market buoyant,

boosted by scrap

substitution.

China copper market remains buoyant due to a combination of scrap shortage and

stock building. China copper demand appears very positive in 2013 and more traders

want to book higher contract tonnages in 2014 thanks to increased import financing.

Refined copper production is also expected to show strong growth.

China stock build up is also a driver of copper demand. Estimates range from 100-300

kt. We believe the build has occurred in both unreported stocks held by traders and a

one-off working inventory pipeline fill. Substitution out of scrap and into cathode has

had a bigger impact on demand than we had previously factored in. Scrap supply has

been very tight this year, especially in China where imports have shrunk 10% y/y YTD.

Subsequently semis producers have been using more cathodes and less scrap in their

raw material mix.

There has been resurgence in copper import financing driven by tighter monetary

conditions. Financing costs are now the most attractive since the beginning of 2012.

Recently, banks have also begun to allow entrecote financing again, which could lead

to builds in bonded stocks into the year-end. Bonded stocks have risen from a low of

425Kt in July to 500-550Kt currently.

Gold: China

emerges as top

global consumer.

Page 3: WEEKLY COMMODITY TECHNICAL REPORT 02 DEC TO 06 DEC BY TRIFID RESEARCH

E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R

DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS

Dec 02 7:00pm Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

7:30pm Final Manufacturing PMI 54.3 54.3

Sep Data Construction Spending m/m 0.5% 0.6%

8:30pm ISM Manufacturing PMI 55.2 56.4

8:30pm Construction Spending m/m 0.4%

8:30pm ISM Manufacturing Prices 55.0 55.5

Dec 03 8:30pm IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 43.2 41.4

All Day Total Vehicle Sales 15.8M 15.2M

Dec 04 All Day OPEC Meetings

6:45pm ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 174K 130K

7:00pm Trade Balance -40.3B -41.8B

8:30pm ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 55.4 55.4

8:30pm New Home Sales 432K

Sep Data New Home Sales 427K 421K

9:00pm Crude Oil Inventories 3.0M

Dec 5 12:30am Beige Book

6:00pm Challenger Job Cuts y/y -4.2%

7:00pm Prelim GDP q/q 3.1% 2.8%

7:00pm Unemployment Claims 322K 316K

7:00pm Prelim GDP Price Index q/q 1.9% 1.9%

8:30pm Factory Orders m/m -0.7% 1.7%

9:00pm Natural Gas Storage -13B

Dec 6 7:00pm Non-Farm Employment Change 184K 204K

7:00pm Unemployment Rate 7.2% 7.3%

7:00pm Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2% 0.1%

7:00pm Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% 0.1%

7:00pm Personal Spending m/m 0.4% 0.2%

7:00pm Personal Income m/m 0.3% 0.5%

8:25pm Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 76.2 75.1

8:25pm Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 2.9%

Dec 7 1:30am FOMC Member Evans Speaks

1:30am Consumer Credit m/m 14.6B 13.7B

Page 4: WEEKLY COMMODITY TECHNICAL REPORT 02 DEC TO 06 DEC BY TRIFID RESEARCH

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

28950 28480 28000 29605 30000 30680

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

45200 43750 42300 46755 48050 49500

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX GOLD on its daily charts showed

sideways to bearish movement due to

comex weakness and closed around

the upper band of triangle pattern. If it

able to break 29650 then breakout of

triangle pattern on higher side is

expected and it may find resistance

around 30000-30700. On other hand if

it maintains on lower level then 28950

will act as major support.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy

above 29650 for the target of 30650

with stop loss of 28900.

PIVOT TABLE

G O L D

PIVOT TABLE

S I L V E R

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX SILVER last week showed bearish

movement, took reversal from lower

band of falling wedge pattern. Now, if

this bear trend continues and sustain

below 45000 then it may find next

support around 43500. On higher side

upper band of falling wedge pattern will

act as resistance for it and 47500 is

major resistance above which breakout

on higher side is expected.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this

point of time is to buy above 47500 for

targets of 49150-50000, with stop loss of

45000.

Page 5: WEEKLY COMMODITY TECHNICAL REPORT 02 DEC TO 06 DEC BY TRIFID RESEARCH

C R U D E O I L

C O P P E R

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

5750 5570 5380 5975 6225 6470

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

447.20 440.25 432.90 457.05 464 471

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Copper moved in downward

channel pattern found support near

lower band and traded in between

457-447. Now, if it sustain above 457

then it may find resistance around

upper band i.e. 463 closing above it

indicates breakout of channel pattern

and will find strong resistance around

471. Below 447 again it may drag

towards lower band around 434.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to sell

below 5750 for the target of 5570 with stop

loss of 6000.

PIVOT TABLE

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

Crude oil on its daily chart showed

sideways movement from past five

consecutive weeks and range bound

movement in between 6110-5750.

Now, if it is able to sustain below 5750

then next support level is seen around

5570. On higher side 6110 will act as

important resistance, only above which

bulls can become active.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to buy

above 457, with stop loss of 445 for the

targets of 465-470.

PIVOT TABLE

Page 6: WEEKLY COMMODITY TECHNICAL REPORT 02 DEC TO 06 DEC BY TRIFID RESEARCH

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