Weekly Commodity Report 24 AUG

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24 AUG 28 AUG 2015 \ W E E K L Y R E P O R T Blow by Blow On Bullions, Base metals, Energy… WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

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Transcript of Weekly Commodity Report 24 AUG

  • 24 AUG 28 AUG 2015


    W E E K L Y







    Blow by Blow



    Base metals,



  • MAJOR EVENTS COMEX Gold is holding in green after in a wild session which took the metal sharply

    up. Global stocks got hammered today following a 2% slide in the DOW and boosted

    gold further. Gold extended gains today as further evidence in favor of a tepid

    economic growth in the US. An increase in US interest rates can lower real house

    prices, but such a reduction could lead to a marked decline in real gross domestic

    product and inflation, a top US Federal Reserve official warned on Thursday.

    Monetary policy actions have sizable and significant effects on house prices in

    advanced economies. That is, an increase in interest rates tends to lower real

    (inflation-adjusted) house prices, San Francisco Fed President John Williams said in a

    speech. In a key data, the number of people who applied for US unemployment

    benefits in mid-August rose for the fourth straight week, but initial claims remains at

    very low levels that indicate the labor market is still improving. New jobless claims

    rose by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 277,000 for week ending August 15.The

    average of new claims over the past month rose by 5,500 to seasonally adjusted

    271,500. These two news items corroborated with a slightly downbeat undertone in

    the latest USFOMC minutes which boosted gold sharply.

    WTI Crude oil futures stayed depressed following a massive slide in global stocks. The

    overnight cues for global equities were bleak as the Dow Jones plunged 358 points on

    Thursday to close below 17,000 for the first time since October 2014 following

    continued economic worries and uncertainty regarding the FOMC policy. Oil traders

    also eyed a huge increase in US stockpiles and Crude oil futures are currently trading

    at $40.81 per barrel, down 01.21% on the day. MCX Crude oil futures are trading at

    Rs 2714 per barrel, down 1.45% on the day. The US Energy Information

    Administration (EIA) released its weekly petroleum status report Wednesday. US

    commercial crude inventories increased by 2.6 million barrels last week, maintaining

    a total US commercial crude inventory of 456.2 million barrels. The commercial crude

    inventory remains near levels not seen at this time of year in at least the past 80

    years. This rattled crude traders further. Traders remain worried about the overall

    demand scenario amid weak economic data from Japan, China and Euro zone. Japans

    gross domestic product shrank 1.6% on an annualized basis in the April-June quarter.

    Exports acted as the biggest drag on Japans economy, falling a massive 16.5%.

    Crude Stays

    Depressed As

    DOW Tumbles To

    10 Month Low.

    Copper Depletes

    By 22% On A

    Yearly Basis on


    Indian Copper prices have depleted by 22% averaging at Rs 332.3 per kg in August

    2015 compared to Rs 425.97 per kg in August 2014 last year. On the monthly basis the

    correction has been 5% in domestic prices while Copper has declined by 8.8% since

    January 2015 when the prices were Rs 364.36 per kg. Meanwhile, London Metal

    Exchange (LME) Copper has corrected 27% since last year. The prices have corrected

    to $ 5128 per ton in August 2015 from $ 7000 per ton in August 2014, down 26%. In

    coming days prices are expected to roll in between Rs 340 and 320 per kg in the local

    markets. The risks and rewards are favoring short positions in Copper. The prices are

    expected to correct on every bounce towards Rs 345 -350 levels. The continuous

    onslaught by speculators and issues pertaining to Chinese demand resulted in Copper

    declining further down in the month of August 2015. After the market panicked by the

    recent devaluation of Chinese currency, Copper prices were not able to recover. China

    consumes more than 42% of Copper in the world, the move of devaluation of Chinese

    currency is expected to bring heavy Copper supplies into the markets that will shave

    the demand. The declines were a result of Chinese fear that economy is going into

    doldrums. Chinese demand is also facing seasonal issues that is refraining any positive

    calls on the metal.



    After Hitting Six

    Week Highs.

  • E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R


    Aug 25 1:25am FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks

    6:30pm HPI m/m 0.4% 0.4%

    6:30pm S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 5.1% 4.9%

    7:15pm Flash Services PMI 54.1 55.7

    7:30pm CB Consumer Confidence 92.8 90.9

    7:30pm New Home Sales 512K 482K

    7:30pm Richmond Manufacturing Index 9 13

    Aug 26 6:00pm Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.3% 0.6%

    6:00pm Durable Goods Orders m/m -0.5% 3.4%

    7:30pm FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

    8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories 2.6M

    Aug 27 6:00pm Prelim GDP q/q 3.2% 2.3%

    6:00pm Unemployment Claims 275K 277K

    6:00pm Prelim GDP Price Index q/q 2.0% 2.0%

    7:30pm Pending Home Sales m/m 1.3% -1.8%

    8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 53B

    Day 1 ALL Jackson Hole Symposium

    Aug 28 6:00pm Goods Trade Balance -62.3B

    6:00pm Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% 0.1%

    6:00pm Personal Spending m/m 0.4% 0.2%

    6:00pm Personal Income m/m 0.4% 0.4%

    7:30pm Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 93.2 92.9

    7:30pm Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 2.8%

    Day 2 ALL Jackson Hole Symposium

    Aug 29 9:55pm FOMC Member Fischer Speaks

    Day 3 ALL Jackson Hole Symposium

  • S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

    26850 26380 25740 27700 28270 28775

    S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

    36000 35350 34550 37000 37800 38550

    T E C H N I C A L V I E W

    MCX GOLD showed bullish movement,

    and due to strong dollar movement it

    correct up to weekly trendline and

    closed above it. Now, if it is able to

    maintain above 27700 then next major

    resistance level is seen in the range of

    28250-28500. On lower side if some

    correction happens then 26500 will act

    as important support level below

    which it may drag up to next support

    level of 26000.

    S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy

    on dips for the target of 27650 with

    stop loss of 26500.


    G O L D


    S I L V E R

    T E C H N I C A L V I E W

    MCX SILVER traded on quiet note in

    initial part of the week but hiked in

    later half and crossed the important

    resistance mark on daily charts on back

    of strong Comex movements and

    Rupee depreciation. Although, it did

    not surged as gold but now the crucial

    point seen ahead is around 37000

    which is 50% retracement. On lower

    side any closing below 35000 can result

    in strong correction in the counter.

    S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this

    point of time is to buy above 37000 for

    the target of 38000, with stop loss of


  • C R U D E O I L

    C O P P E R

    S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

    2630 2500 2350 2800 2915 3035

    S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

    326 315 300 344 358 370

    T E C H N I C A L V I E W

    MCX Copper last week showed

    sideways to bullish movement and

    consolidated around its important

    weekly support level of 327 and not

    able to sustain below it. Now, if it

    maintains above 344 on higher side

    then next important resistance level is

    seen around 357.30. On the other

    hand if it sustain below 327 then next

    support will seen around 315.

    S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to

    sell below 2630 for the target of 2500,

    with stop loss of 2800.


    T E C H N I C A L V I E W

    MCX Crude oil showed straight eighth

    weekly closing on bearish note and

    made new recent weekly low of 2637.

    Now, if it sustain below 2600 in coming

    sessions then next important support

    level is seen around 2375. On the other

    hand maintaining above 2800 will pull

    it towards resistance level of 3000.

    S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to buy

    above 344, with stop loss of 325 for the

    targets of 357-360.