12 MAY – 16 MAY 2014

W E E K L Y

R

E

P

O

R

T

Blow by Blow

On

Bullions,

Base metals,

Energy…

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MAJOR EVENTS Gold fell, capping the first weekly drop in three weeks, on speculation that the Federal

Reserve will curb monetary stimulus as the U.S. economy recovers, crimping demand

for the metal as an alternative investment. Policy makers trimmed bond purchases

last week for the fourth time since November. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said May 7 that

strength in the economy made measured reductions in asset purchases appropriate,

even as stimulus is still needed. Bullion slumped 28 percent last year, the most since

1981, on concern the central bank would slow the pace of bond buying.

“Yellen made it clear that tapering will continue. “Gold is getting some support from

political tension, but other than that, there is little interest.” Gold futures for June

delivery fell less than 0.1 percent to settle at $1,287.60 an ounce at 1:39 p.m. on the

Comex, extending the week’s decline to 1.2 percent. Prices are up 7.1 percent this

year, partly because of escalating turmoil in Ukraine. The government in Kiev and its

U.S. and European allies say President Vladimir Putin is fomenting unrest in eastern

Ukraine, where pro-Russian separatists in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions are

preparing to stage autonomy referendums May 11.

Crude oil futures are trading steady in the Asia electronic session today, however the

natural gas futures extended yesterday’s 4% decline after data showed a fifth-straight

weekly rise in U.S. inventories of the fuel. June natural gas futures are trading down

$0.008 at $ 4.564 per million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile

Exchange. Yesterday, it declined by 17 cents, or 3.5%, to settle at $4.57.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that supplies of natural gas rose

74 billion cubic feet for the week ended May 2. That was slightly more than the

market expected as analysts surveyed forecast an increase of between 69 billion

cubic feet and 73 billion cubic feet. EIA data show that natural-gas supplies in storage

have been climbing each week since the week ended April 4. NYMEX light sweet

crude oil futures are trading up 15 cents at $ 100.41 per barrel in the electronic

trades today. Concerns that Ukraine will descend into civil war eased after President

Putin called on separatists in the eastern reaches of the country to postpone their

referendum on independence, and added that Russia had withdrawn its forces from

the border.

Oil Steady; Natural

Gas Extends Slide.

Nickel Has

Biggest Weekly

Gain Since 2010

on Supply Woes

Nickel prices rose, capping the biggest weekly rally in four years, after a plant closure

by Vale SA, the world’s second-biggest producer, added to global-supply concerns.

This year, nickel has surged 43 percent, the most among the main industrial metals

traded in London. Indonesia, the top supplier from mines, has barred exports of raw

ore, while the threat of more sanctions against Russia has spurred speculation that

shipments will disrupted.

Operations at Vale’s plant in the South Pacific island nation of New Caledonia were

suspended this week after a spill of a solution containing acid. The global market will

swing to a deficit by next year. “The market is in a frame of mind where bullish news is

taken as extremely bullish,” “If that spill of acid had happened six months or nine

months ago, it would have had no positive price impact at all.” Nickel for delivery in

three months climbed 2.6 percent to settle at $19,905 a metric ton at 5:50 p.m. on the

London Metal Exchange. This week, the price jumped 9 percent, the most since

February 2010. Earlier, the price reached $20,500, the highest since Feb. 22, 2012.

Yesterday, trading on the LME rose to a record. Supply will exceed demand by 70,000

tons this year before the market moves to a deficit of about 104,000 tons in 2015.

Gold Cuts

Weekly Drop as

Ukraine Weighed

With Stimulus.

E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R

DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS

May 12 9:30pm FOMC Member Plosser Speaks

11:30pm Federal Budget Balance 112.6B -36.9B

May 13 5:00pm NFIB Small Business Index 94.6 93.4

6:00pm Core Retail Sales m/m 0.6% 0.7%

6:00pm Retail Sales m/m 0.5% 1.2%

6:00pm Import Prices m/m 0.4% 0.6%

7:30pm Business Inventories m/m 0.4% 0.4%

May 14 6:00pm PPI m/m 0.2% 0.5%

6:00pm Core PPI m/m 0.2% 0.6%

Tentative Mortgage Delinquencies 6.41%

8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories -1.8M

May 15 6:00pm Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.2%

6:00pm Unemployment Claims 321K 319K

6:00pm CPI m/m 0.3% 0.2%

6:00pm Empire State Manufacturing Index 7.2 1.3

6:30pm TIC Long-Term Purchases 47.3B 85.7B

6:45pm Capacity Utilization Rate 79.2% 79.2%

6:45pm Industrial Production m/m 0.4% 0.7%

7:30pm Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 13.9 16.6

7:30pm NAHB Housing Market Index 49 47

8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 74B

May 16 4:30am Fed Chair Yellen Speaks

6:00pm Building Permits 1.01M 1.00M

6:00pm Housing Starts 0.98M 0.95M

7:25pm Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 84.7 84.1

7:25pm Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 3.2%

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

28350 28050 27750 28800 29100 29410

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

41160 39900 38500 42250 43100 44100

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX GOLD last week showed weak

trend after surpassing the physiological

level of 29000 and unable to hold

above 38.2% retracement and closed

below it. Now, if it sustains below

23.6% retracement level i.e. 28350

then bears may take it towards the

support level of 28000. On higher side

if it maintains above 28800 then next

resistance may be seen in the range of

29100-29400.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell

below 28350 for the target of 28000-

27800 with stop loss of 29100.

PIVOT TABLE

G O L D

PIVOT TABLE

S I L V E R

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX SILVER showed downward

movement and unable to hold above

43000 and dragged to its support level

of 41150. Now, on lower side if it

sustains below 41100 then bears may

become active and may breach support

level of 40000. On other hand if it gives

closing above 43000 then only

breakouts of channel pattern is

expected and can lead it towards the

next resistance level of 43850.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this

point of time is to sell below 41050 for

targets of 40000-39500, with stop loss of

43000.

C R U D E O I L

C O P P E R

…

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

5930 5835 5750 6070 6145 6235

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

404.40 396.20 385 418 429 438.50

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Copper on daily chart showed

sideways movement and traded in

between channel pattren. Now on

higher side if it maintains above 418-

425 then breakout of trendline is

exepected and may lead upto next

resistance level of 433. On other hand

if the downward movement continues

and sustain below 400 then it may find

support in the range of 392-390.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to sell

below 5930 for the targets of 5800, with

stop loss of 6100.

PIVOT TABLE

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Crude oil last week showed

sideways movement and traded

around lower band of triangle pattern

on daily charts. Now, If the downward

movement continues and sustain

below 5930 then it may find strong

support in the range of 5800-5750.

And on higher side some correction

may lead it towards the resistance

level of 6150.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to buy

on dips, with stop loss of 399 for the

targets of 422-430.

PIVOT TABLE

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