Weekly Commodity Market Tips and Report

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08 DEC 12 DEC 2014 W E E K L Y R E P O R T Blow by Blow On Bullions, Base metals, Energy… WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

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Transcript of Weekly Commodity Market Tips and Report

  • 1. 08 DEC 12 DEC 2014W E E K L YREPORTBlow by BlowOnBullions,Base metals,EnergyWWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

2. MAJOR EVENTSGold futures dropped a second day as the dollar strengthened before U.S. jobs data that may add to the case for policy makers to raise interest rates.The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reached a five-year high before a report that economists predict will show U.S. job growth quickened. The greenback has rallied on expectations an improving U.S. economy will spur the Federal Reserve to raise borrowing costs, while other central banks weigh more stimulus.The dollar and gold fell yesterday as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said policy makers will wait to assess whether additional stimulus is needed, though ruled out buying bullion.Gold is still up 2 percent in New York this week, the most since October, and set for the biggest advance since June in London after surging on Dec. 1 as oil prices reboundedGold for February delivery fell 0.7 percent to $1,199.40 an ounce by 7:11 a.m. on the Comex in New York. Bullion for immediate delivery lost 0.5 percent to $1,199.16 in London, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. Spot prices climbed 2.7 percent this week.MCX Crude oil futures stayed weak today as the global prices failed to tick higherahead of the US nonfarm payrolls tepid economic data from around the world also capped theupside. Traders have been reluctant to buy oil though some sort of a bottom looks to havebeen formed around the five year low mark for the commodity. The WTI crude oil futures arequoting at $66.41 per barrel, down 41 cents per barrel on the day. MCX Crude oil futuresare trading at Rs 4120 per barrel, down Rs 16 per barrel on the day. The counter hasrecovered from lows near Rs 4100 per barrel earlier in the session.The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its weekly report yesterday thatUS crude oil inventories declined by 3.7 million barrels in the week ending November 28.Total US crude oil inventories stood at 379.3 million barrels as of last week. The reportalso showed that total motor gasoline inventories increased by 2.1 million barrels, aboveexpectations for a gain of 1.1 million, while distillate stockpiles rose by 3 millionbarrels.Oil Weak, Supply Scenario Continues To Overwhelm Buyers.Copper Recoups Losses in Domestic Markets.The prices of MCX Copper has recouped losses in the domestic markets and traded sharply higher for the second consecutive session. The prices of MCX Copper were last seen at Rs 406.45 per kg, up 0.63 percent. A major chunk of this buying can be linked to the sharp declines in the prices seen over last month.On COMEX, Copper futures for March 2015 expiry were trading at $ 2.933 per pound, up 2 pound.The prices have tested a high of $ 2.93 per pound and a low of $ 2.90 per pound.The dollar had weakened on Thursday after ECB President Mario Draghi indicated that it would not embark on quantitative easing for now, saying the bank would reassess its stimulus program in the first quarter of 2015.However, Friday is showing revival of fortunes for Dollar against the Euro. This can change the potential for Copper in evening session. The Department of Labor reported on Thursday that the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending November 29 decreased by 17,000 to 297,000 from the previous week's revised total of 314,000.Gold Drops a Second Day as Dollar Strengthens Before Jobs Data. 3. E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUSDec 08 8:30pmLabor Market Conditions Index m/m4.0Dec 09 6:00pmNFIB Small Business Index96.696.18:30pmJOLTS Job Openings4.81M4.74M8:30pmIBD/TIPP Economic Optimism47.246.48:30pmWholesale Inventories m/m0.1%0.3%Dec 10 9:00pmCrude Oil Inventories-3.7M9:00pm10-y Bond Auction2.37|2.5Dec 11 12:30amFederal Budget Balance-79.6B-121.7B7:00pmCore Retail Sales m/m0.1%0.3%7:00pmRetail Sales m/m0.3%0.3%7:00pmUnemployment Claims299K297K7:00pmImport Prices m/m-1.7%-1.3%8:30pmBusiness Inventories m/m0.2%0.3%9:00pmNatural Gas Storage-22B11:31pm30-y Bond Auction3.09|2.3Dec 12 7:00pmPPI m/m-0.1%0.2%7:00pmCore PPI m/m0.1%0.4%8:25pmPrelim UoM Consumer Sentiment89.688.88:25pmPrelim UoM Inflation Expectations2.8% 4. S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R326150 25680 25160 26855 27300 27705S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R336350 35170 33490 37850 39180 40600T E C H N I C A L V I E WMCX GOLD showed sudden bullishmovement in first trading session ofthe week but not able to maintainabove 27000 and correction lead it toclosed below 26500. Now, if it is ableto sustain below 26000 then nextsupport level is seen around 25500. Onother hand if it maintains above 27000then next resistance level is seenaround 27500.S T R A T E G YBetter strategy in MCX GOLD is to sellbelow 26200 for the targets of 25500with stop loss of 27100.PIVOT TABLEG O L DPIVOT TABLES I L V E RT E C H N I C A L V I E WMCX SILVER on daily charts showedbullish movement in this week andfound resistance around 38000 andclosed near to trendline. Now, if itsustain on lower levels below 36300then 35000 will act as vital support. Onhigher side maintaing above 38000 willagain breach it towards the resistancelevel of 39000.S T R A T E G YBetter strategy in MCX SILVER at thispoint of time is to sell below 36000 forthe target of 34000, with stop loss of38000. 5. C R U D E O I LC O P P E RS1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R33980 3720 3540 4320 4555 4820S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3400.80 395.80 389.80 408.85 415.25 423.35T E C H N I C A L V I E WMCX Copper last week showedcorrection on higher side and test theresistance level of trendline butunable to closed above it. Now, 400 isseen as immediate support for itbelow which it may drag towards 390support level. On higher side ifcorrection continuous then it will leadtowards the resistance level of 410above which trend may revesed.S T R A T E G YBetter strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is tosell on highs for the target of 3800, withstop loss of 4300.PIVOT TABLET E C H N I C A L V I E WMCX Crude oil last week showeddownward movement and sustainbelow its important support level of4300 and also closed below it. Now, ifit sustain below 3980 then nextsupport level is seen aroundphysiological level of 3800. If somecorrection occurs and maintains above4300 then 4500 will act as majorresistance for it.S T R A T E G YBetter strategy in MCX COPPER is to sellbelow 400, with stop loss of 410 for thetarget of 390.PIVOT TABLE 6. WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM DISCLAIMER